1. Yes, but all those players need to be upgraded which will cost more money. The Leafs haven't had any success in the playoffs because they have 5 uber talented players (yet mostly soft) and a bunch of bargain bin flotsam and jetsam rounding out the roster. All these vet pieces you name need to be replaced with better options. You simply cannot do that if Matthews, Nylander, and Marner are all getting raises. Impossible.
2. Yes, some of it is on the coach, but not all of it. And that's apparent because this same core underachieved under a Stanley Cup, and future HHOF coach, in Mike Babcock, the same way they've laid eggs under Keefe. These superstars are talented but soft as Kleenex and have no desire to engage in warfare, which is the only way to win in the playoffs. The coach can't help these dudes grow a heart or instill a hatred of losing into them.
3. Yes, Matthews is great at hockey. Yes, he's a spoiled, selfish brat. Can you win with these players? I say no. Not when they dip in the playoffs like Matthews does while displaying a nonchalant attitude with losing. In order to win with these guys, you need to surround them with multiple unsung heroes who carry the team and do all the dirty work when the game is on the line -- guys like Tkachuk, Bennett, Palat, Marchessault, Point, Maroon, Perry, Pavelski, Barbashev, etc. Kids like Matthews and Marner are good enough to get you there but they are not closers. They are cream puffs who lack killer instinct. And they are lead by another marshmallow man in Tavares. When Nylander and Rielly are your toughest stars, you know you're in trouble when the games mean something.
The biggest problem with Matthews is not his weaknesses or deficiencies, it's his sense of entitlement and greed. Instead of leaving money on the table so he can be better supported by players who help him elevate his game, he's arrogant to the point where he wants all the money and can care less about team balance or winning anything substantial. Plain and simple -- he'd rather make every dollar and lose, than make great money and win. What's that tell you about him?
As for your ultimate question: Can you win in a cap league with greedy players who are also good at hockey? The honest answer is: it depends on the player -- how great and how clutch they are. But if the Oilers can't get it done with two all-time greats in McDavid and Draisaitl (who are a level above Matthews) then I wouldn't be taking the Leaf's odds here.
Thx for the well thought out response, glad you're here and thx for making sense. Will respond to each numbered point.
1) I disagree that
each of the players Tre brought in will need to be upgraded. I see it more like Tre is trying to remake the team while also giving himself cap flexibility. What I mean is, he brought in a bunch of guys so he can evaluate who he wants on the team -- he'll keep a few (to your point, with raises), but not all. If somebody like Bertuzzi comes in and scores 30G while playing with an edge, that makes Willie and his 9-10m ask expendable -- same with Max Domi who could easily rediscover his form and get 60-70 points. Anyway I'm pretty sure Tre's not trying to keep all those guys long term, he's seeing which ones stick which will then help him remake the team a little bit (potentially including the core).
2) Forgot about Leafs with Babs, thanks for that. Babs was never going to be the best coach for these guys though -- I remember an interview with Chris Chelios re: the end of his career in Detroit -- I'm paraphrasing this but Cheli basically said some version of: "I knew I'd have trouble with Babs because there was no creativity, all he wanted us to do was skate in straight lines" -- that's not going to be effective with offensively creative players like the Leafs have. It might work for Columbus whose entire team except for Gaudreau, Laine, Werenski are all grinders, but Toronto wasn't the right fit.
Re: coaching in general, I do think that one of the main jobs of a coach is to get the team ready to play, and Keefe consistently did not do that against Florida. Of course the players are responsible too, but as a neutral I'd give Keefe... idk maybe 50% of the blame? Some relatively high non-trivial percentage. And as a first year NHL head coach I can't imagine most teams would have kept him for so long. Esp because the Leafs are squarely in their cup window and Lavi was available.
3) Well said about Matthews and other core members. I think you need a core with some toughness that also plays hard, Leafs currently don't have that. BUT, if Bertuzzi or Domi do well with the Leafs, and
they become part of the core while WIllie goes away (see point #1)... I mean maybe your core can get there. Maybe you have to drop Willie anyway if he asks for too much $$, but even if that happens maybe it's not the worst thing IF these other guys can become core pieces.
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Appreciate your answer to my "ultimate question" -- that's a great way to describe it, thx for that. You brought up a great point in that players have to be clutch in order for teams to win. If Leafs core raise their games in elimination games like (insert any superstar from any sport), Leafs win
all of those playoff elimination games in the past however many years. Re: EDM, I do think as a neutral that Leafs have a stronger roster, they haven't really been clutch though.
Put another way in a must-win game 7, if I have one player to pick I'm picking Sid, McD, MacK, Kucherov, Makar, Vasi, Shesty, heck maybe even Erik Karlsson based on those two crazy runs he had with Ottawa. Most of those guys you mentioned are at least worth considering. No way I'm picking anyone currently on the Leafs, not even really considering it. And as a neutral, I think THAT is the main problem with the Leafs rn.
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So then... what do you do with Matthews. I think you have to pay him, regardless of the above you're still a better team with him than without him, even if he's disappeared in the big moments. If I were a Leafs fan, I'm not sure I'd be happy about it. But realistically what else can you do -- if he walks, there goes your championship window, maybe you get to another one in 5-7 years or so but maybe not. Especially bc his no trade means you won't be able to get much of a return for him in a trade, if you can even trade him at all. So I think you're sort of stuck with him even though you're not sure you can win with him leading the team. Definitely a tough spot to be in.
Thx for the context / discussion and your thoughtful answer, very much appreciated. Thx!