Rumor: Kypreos says Matthews will be 13.5M (Haggling over term)

[Brian39]

Whatever way you slice it, TOR is giving AM34 exactly what he wants, otherwise he will just walk for nothing next July and the Leafs literally can not do a thing about it. The NMC that the agent negotiated is brilliant in that regard. Leafs have absolutely no leverage.

Yup. I do enjoy the people who acted like it was insane to consider trading him before July 1st who are now clutching their pearls about his rumored contract demands. His last contract may has well have been a neon sign advertising his intent to ask for the moon in these negotiations.

 

[surixon]

This is the same trend LeBron was trying to get other NBA stars to do. Short term deals to maximize earning potential. The main risk is serious injury. It's a risk that is probably greater for Hockey players.

 

[Hockeyholic]

It is if he prioritizes winning a Cup, which he obviously hasn't.

I understand. But I always see the player getting blame in these situations. Never the front office.

The leafs don't have to sign him.

I do agree that he doesn't strike me as a guy who is obsessed with winning a cup.

 

[TCIH]

With the situation we're in post-pandemic as it relates to the cap, it costs more to sign for term than it does a shorter deal. That's why Matthews doesn't want to go beyond 3 years.

If the Leafs want him for 5 or 6 years then that's eating into 100m cap territory, which means more than a 13.5 average. I actually think a shorter deal makes more sense for Toronto, for that reason. Keep the number down right now in the cap transition period, then re-assess when the deal is done.

I mean, obviously the Leafs want him on a max-term contract at a good number, but I think we have a good sense of what Matthews' priorities are now, enough to know that's not going to happen.

 

[Nakawick]

He is giving the leafs a discount I see. Leafs will have 4 guys taking up half the cap.

 

[notbias]

I understand. But I always see the player getting blame in these situations. Never the front office.

The leafs don't have to sign him.

I do agree that he doesn't strike me as a guy who is obsessed with winning a cup.

Maybe he has seen how Treliving spends extra cap in years past and thinks it is a waste. There could be a lot of reasons. I don't blame the players for taking more money when GMs usually spend the 5 million extra they have on trash players.

 

[Boxscore]

I understand. But I always see the player getting blame in these situations. Never the front office.

The leafs don't have to sign him.

I do agree that he doesn't strike me as a guy who is obsessed with winning a cup.

I think the blame goes both ways, but that's usually when a desperate GM dips into the UFA pool and overpays an average free agent by a lot. When it comes to Matthews, his situation is unique in that he demands to be the highest paid in the world yet his play doesn't warrant it. But he knows he has the Leafs over a barrel and he's using that leverage instead of conceding on a deal that's both beneficial to him and the team. If Matthews was scoring 150 and putting up 1.5 PPG in the playoffs like McDavid, no one would care what he is paid. But when you have 1 playoff round success in 7 years, that doesn't cut it.

I guess the Leafs don't have to sign him, but they kinda do. They are in a tough spot and their best player (and supposed leader) is doing them zero favors. Not a good look from the kid.

 

[bossram]

If he signs for 3 years that might actually be better for the Leafs because they won't have to pay him $14m+ into his 30's. That means they'd have to let him walk though in order to get those benefits.

That AAV is ridiculous though. Matthews better be a perennial Hart/Richard candidate and be well over PPG in the playoffs if he's going to be demanding that money. Not every Leafs playoff loss is on him but if you're making that amount of money you simply HAVE to be able to take over playoff series and win games for your team.

That cap hit should be for 8 years. WTF.

I've seen these arguments against Matthews quite frequently, but I honestly don't think they land.

$13.5M is only $900k more than Mackinnon AAV, and Mackinnon took a massive discount on his UFA price. Haggling over a million here or there with a player in the Matthews tier is missing the forest for the trees. You can save a million elsewhere pretty easily (e.g. don't sign Reaves). Even if it is an overpayment (I disagree), I'd rather overpay to keep an elite player than overpay Klingberg by $2M or something.

Also I don't think the Leafs should even want to sign Matthews long-term. 8 years? For a guy who's already had repeated/chronic injuries that are debilitating his biggest strength? It could turn out horribly.

That would be the smart deal to take if you're really that concerned about maximizing the amount of money you can make.

3x$13.5M means he's 29(?) as a UFA in 2027 and likely looking at a near $100M cap. $13.5M would be nearly 16.5% of an 83.5M cap. Which means at a $100M cap the same contract would be $16.5M and no doubt he gets that for 7 years in Free agency if he went to market(Probably more honestly if he's still a Top 3 Center in the game).

Going this route could net him an extra $15-25M in career earnings tbh.


It's crazy he's trying to do this though, at least IMO... It's one thing to be unwilling to take a discount to stay on a long term deal. It's another thing entirely IMO to be unwilling to even take a long teem deal because of the potential for more cap space and more money in a couple years.

That is truly trying to maximize every dime you can get, and you almost never see it to that extent. Tough spot for Toronto if indeed this is what Matthews wants. It basically tells the team he cares way more about the money then the rest of the team and actually winning a cup with that group.

As above, I think Matthews' profit maximization here is actually better for the Leafs too (in the short-term). I don't think the Leafs should want to go for a long-term deal.

I'm surprised Matthews is (reportedly) pursuing this route. If he gets a significant injury on his next deal, this plan goes up in smoke.

 

[leafsfan5]

Do you take a discount for your job?

FWI: I totally understand why this pisses fans off, but I’m just looking at it logically. These guys have a certain number of yrs in the league… it is in their best interest to go for the money

I'm sure it will hinder Matthews' quality of life significantly if he takes something like 12.8 instead of 13.5

He has a right to get his money, but he is also destroying this team and the chances we have for the cup

 

[leafsfan5]

Mike Johnson was on a few weeks ago and said he expects Matthews to get 14 mil or north of it on a 4 year deal and that he owes the Leafs nothing. Ex-players are going to ex-player.

There are insane numbers being thrown out there for Matthews

It's why I understand Nylander's position the most out of all this. He is willing to take less, but he doesn't want to do that while AM34 gouges our eyes out. As a result, with Matthews taking a million more, Nylander will too, and Marner certainly will once again

what a great culture we have

 

[D Wakaluk]

He's got 44 points in 50 playoff games. 22 goals. Just because his output doesn't match his regular season rates doesn't make him a playoff ghost.
It is generally harder to score in the playoffs too...

22 goals in 50 games.

I mean it's great if you're happy with his playoff performances. The harsh truth is that the Toronto core hasn't stepped up in the playoffs. Nylander has been worth every penny though (and likely gone)

Give AM the money and watch that ship sink further

 

[horner]

Matthews has all the bargaining power here and little reason to do Toronto that big a favor. If he doesn't like the contract, he can refuse to sign anything and walk himself to free agency where he absolutely gets 14M+ on whatever term he wants.

And leave as a leaf fan I would be happy if he left.

 

[General Disarray]

So much for HF dream of him bolting to Arizona.

 

[horner]

There are insane numbers being thrown out there for Matthews

It's why I understand Nylander's position the most out of all this. He is willing to take less, but he doesn't want to do that while AM34 gouges our eyes out. As a result, with Matthews taking a million more, Nylander will too, and Marner certainly will once again

what a great culture we have

Mathews is the problem

So much for HF dream of him bolting to Arizona.

In 3 yrs they can have him for free

 

[mkatcherin00]

Why would anyone on that team take a discount when no one else is? They signed Tavares, which made no sense then and still makes no sense now, to an $11m contract. Matthews has outperformed him every year of that contract by a decent margin. What's a discount for someone like Matthews even come in at? $11.5? $12? He'd be dumb to take less than $11m

Everyone always talks shit about players not taking a discount and how that means they don't want to win. Any discount is unlikely to go to getting good depth and instead just means core guys coming up for new contracts can fight for a little more (if they aren't willing to take a discount) so can you really blame a guy for maximizing his earnings when there is no guarantee anyone else does the same which is what it would take to truly benefit from the discount in the first place?

It sucks from a fan point of view to build a better team with depth, but I always say this as well:

Let's say the top 2 superstars on a team take a 2 mill discount each relative to what they *should" be earning. 4 million savings

Who is to say the GM will use that wisely? What if he just spends it very stupidly on a sh** player lol

 

[KevinRedkey]

Should have traded him 2-3yrs ago. They have no choice but to pay his asking price at this point.

Over 45.000 invested into 4 players next year is insane in today's NHL. lol

 

[mkatcherin00]

He is giving the leafs a discount I see. Leafs will have 4 guys taking up half the cap.

That is pretty crazy. I don't think the Oilers entire top 6 make as much as the core 4

I've seen these arguments against Matthews quite frequently, but I honestly don't think they land.

$13.5M is only $900k more than Mackinnon AAV, and Mackinnon took a massive discount on his UFA price. Haggling over a million here or there with a player in the Matthews tier is missing the forest for the trees. You can save a million elsewhere pretty easily (e.g. don't sign Reaves). Even if it is an overpayment (I disagree), I'd rather overpay to keep an elite player than overpay Klingberg by $2M or something.

Also I don't think the Leafs should even want to sign Matthews long-term. 8 years? For a guy who's already had repeated/chronic injuries that are debilitating his biggest strength? It could turn out horribly.

As above, I think Matthews' profit maximization here is actually better for the Leafs too (in the short-term). I don't think the Leafs should want to go for a long-term deal.

I'm surprised Matthews is (reportedly) pursuing this route. If he gets a significant injury on his next deal, this plan goes up in smoke.

Most hockey players are good with $$. If Matthews had a career ending injury, makes no difference to him. He can leverage that fact. He has multi generational wealth already

 

[centipede2233]

Given Matthews' injury history what if he gets a ridiculous injury and is done for then what? short term deal will come back to bite him on his ass

Exactly, landeskog and couturier signed their ufa contracts, now both injured maybe for the duration lol. Beware of the 3rd contract my friends

 

[izzy]

that would murder the leafs

good luck to everyone involved

 

[Nothingbutglass]

Next up Marner! Thanks Dubas

 

[AuroraBorealis]

22 goals in 50 games.

I mean it's great if you're happy with his playoff performances. The harsh truth is that the Toronto core hasn't stepped up in the playoffs. Nylander has been worth every penny though (and likely gone)

Give AM the money and watch that ship sink further

Yeah, that projects out to 36 goals per 82 games. It's lower than his usual rate, but to call him a ghost in the playoffs is a narrative driven take.
Marner isn't a ghost either. He's got 47 points in 50 games, with excellent defensive metrics. Both of these guys defend very well, even though all people ever talk about are points, like that's all that contributes to wins.
I'd say Tavares is the biggest weak link in the playoffs since coming over actually. He's got 22 points in 31 games and is a -9. He was sorta ok in this playoffs, even though people will call him a god because of that lucky OT goal.

Toronto's problem is that they're overly reliant on their core to be perfect and to produce huge numbers. It's not that these guys are horrid playoff performers like people say. There's just no support system, partially because of how much these guys make. And the goalies have often been crap too.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Given Matthews' injury history what if he gets a ridiculous injury and is done for then what? short term deal will come back to bite him on his ass

Thats ok cause hes made an INSANE amount of money already and hes only 25 years old. He has ZERO money stress for the rest of his life and has already set up the next many generations of Matthews

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Thats ok cause hes made an INSANE amount of money already and hes only 25 years old. He has ZERO money stress for the rest of his life and has already set up the next many generations of Matthews

He needs to marry a girl with a tiny nose and a family history of really durable hairlines on the male side.

 

[A1LeafNation]

I've seen these arguments against Matthews quite frequently, but I honestly don't think they land.

$13.5M is only $900k more than Mackinnon AAV, and Mackinnon took a massive discount on his UFA price. Haggling over a million here or there with a player in the Matthews tier is missing the forest for the trees. You can save a million elsewhere pretty easily (e.g. don't sign Reaves). Even if it is an overpayment (I disagree), I'd rather overpay to keep an elite player than overpay Klingberg by $2M or something.

Also I don't think the Leafs should even want to sign Matthews long-term. 8 years? For a guy who's already had repeated/chronic injuries that are debilitating his biggest strength? It could turn out horribly.

As above, I think Matthews' profit maximization here is actually better for the Leafs too (in the short-term). I don't think the Leafs should want to go for a long-term deal.

I'm surprised Matthews is (reportedly) pursuing this route. If he gets a significant injury on his next deal, this plan goes up in smoke.

We already proved you can't win for the last 5 years with the rest taking discounts only.

He can choose to win or get paid and it's proven it can't be both.

 

[Divine]

A team with significant cap space might be willing to sign him to that contract when he's a UFA and they don't have to give up anything for him. Stranger things have happened.

Then the Leafs should walk away.

Lots of great pending FA’s this year. I imagine the Leafs trade him as a rental at the deadline at that point.