Rumor: Kypreos says Matthews will be 13.5M (Haggling over term)

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chethejet

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Feb 4, 2012
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Mathews as a matter of seeing what his value is should test FA and his options may be elsewhere. Lot of teams will bid for him and there are better situations than Toronto going forward.
 

mkatcherin00

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Apr 2, 2023
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Yeah, that projects out to 36 goals per 82 games. It's lower than his usual rate, but to call him a ghost in the playoffs is a narrative driven take.
Marner isn't a ghost either. He's got 47 points in 50 games, with excellent defensive metrics. Both of these guys defend very well, even though all people ever talk about are points, like that's all that contributes to wins.
I'd say Tavares is the biggest weak link in the playoffs since coming over actually. He's got 22 points in 31 games and is a -9. He was sorta ok in this playoffs, even though people will call him a god because of that lucky OT goal.

Toronto's problem is that they're overly reliant on their core to be perfect and to produce huge numbers. It's not that these guys are horrid playoff performers like people say. There's just no support system, partially because of how much these guys make. And the goalies have often been crap too.
It's the timing IMO. Look at their game 7 numbers for their playoff history. Look at how many goals Matthews, Marner, and Tavares scored against FLA? 1 total? 2? I don't remember. They could have won that series with production from their top 2 big guns when it mattered the most. The depth players were supporting them in the last series.
 
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Boxscore

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Mathews as a matter of seeing what his value is should test FA and his options may be elsewhere. Lot of teams will bid for him and there are better situations than Toronto going forward.
The grass is always greener. But as long as his priority is seeing how much money he can possibly make on the open market, he'll continue to be rich without a chance of winning a Cup. In a hard cap world it's virtually impossible to win a Cup if you're maxed out paying 2-3 players outrageous salaries. Even McDavid and Draisaitl can't do it as a combo in Edmonton so far, and both are better than Matthews.

The problem isn't the Leafs, it's the NHL salary cap, followed by Matthews being extremely selfish.
 

Divine

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As long as they pay him way more than he is worth, and ask for no concessions on his end.

It's not more than he's worth if multiple teams are lining up to pay him that (or more), which is the argument the other poster is making.
 

kcunac

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Aug 31, 2008
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I guess Mathews thinks he will never get injured seriously.

He’ll wait until after this deal to take the 8 year deal that brings takes him to his late 30s and make tons of dough.
 

AuroraBorealis

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Oct 16, 2018
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It's the timing IMO. Look at their game 7 numbers for their playoff history. Look at how many goals Matthews, Marner, and Tavares scored against FLA? 1 total? 2? I don't remember. They could have won that series with production from their top 2 big guns when it mattered the most. The depth players were supporting them in the last series.
Game 1's are equivalent to game 7's, much like how round 1 is of the same value as the Finals.
It's a race to 4 wins. They just happen last is all.
Would have been nice to get support from depth players in game 7s when they were doing the heavy lifting earlier in the series.

Game 7 vs Tampa 2022 - only goal from Rielly, assisted by Matthews and Marner.
Game 7 vs Montreal 2021 - only goal from Nylander, assisted by Matthews
Game 5 vs CBJ 2020 (best of 5) - shutout
Game 7 vs BOS 2019 - only goal from JT

4 years straight of not getting a goal from someone other than the core in the final game. f***ing useless.

Actually hold up. Also in 2023 guess who got the 2 goals in game 6 to finally get them through? Matthews and JT.
Just can't buy a depth hero, 5 years running.

My Pens had:
- Talbot score 2 goals in game 7 in 2009 vs Detroit.
- Hornqvist GWG in 2017 vs Nashville to win the Cup.
- Bonino series clincher vs Washington 2016.
- Hornqvist and Rust scored in G7 vs Wash 2017.
- Rust saved the Pens vs Tampa in 2017 with 2 critical goals in elimination games 6 and 7
- Kunitz G7 OTG vs Ottawa 2017.
- Guentzel 4 goals vs Philly to eliminate them in G6
- Dumoulin got the 1st goal in 2016 SCF G6 vs San Jose

So when are the "big 4" gonna get that kinda help?
 
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kcunac

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Players can purchase an insurance policy in the event of career-ending injury. I'm sure all elite ones do.
Their contract is insured sure, but it I’m not so sure insurance would pay a player without a contract, and if so how astronomical the premiums and deductible would be, given that insurers would only do this for a considerable profit. I also somewhat doubt a player would pay for such insurance. In Mathew’s case the premiums would be in the millions per year. Are you sure about this?
 

x Tame Impala

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I've seen these arguments against Matthews quite frequently, but I honestly don't think they land.

$13.5M is only $900k more than Mackinnon AAV, and Mackinnon took a massive discount on his UFA price. Haggling over a million here or there with a player in the Matthews tier is missing the forest for the trees. You can save a million elsewhere pretty easily (e.g. don't sign Reaves). Even if it is an overpayment (I disagree), I'd rather overpay to keep an elite player than overpay Klingberg by $2M or something.

Also I don't think the Leafs should even want to sign Matthews long-term. 8 years? For a guy who's already had repeated/chronic injuries that are debilitating his biggest strength? It could turn out horribly.

As above, I think Matthews' profit maximization here is actually better for the Leafs too (in the short-term). I don't think the Leafs should want to go for a long-term deal.

I'm surprised Matthews is (reportedly) pursuing this route. If he gets a significant injury on his next deal, this plan goes up in smoke.
The list of players in the league the last decade or so worth that kind of relative AAV is a short one IMO. Where their talents are so great they can win you playoff series. Matthews is a superstar but the Leafs aren't advancing and it's clear they can't plug the holes on that roster from lack of cap space.

For that AAV to be justified Matthews has to be the best player in the world. Hey maybe he was injured last year and that took him down a peg this season. Could be true. For that AAV you'd hope he recovers and returns back to his Hart-level play.

Marner will surely look to Matthew's contract as a guidepost. That'll be terrible cap value for the Leafs going forward. Toews and Kane got their raises because they had already won their Cups and were chasing a 3rd. They both won a Smythe too. Regardless of the Hawks never winning even a playoff series again with those $10.5m AAV's, what have Matthews and Marner done to warrant an even fattier contract on top of the one they're already not winning Cups with?

Easy for me to say as a non-Leaf fan but...trade em. Trade em both. Keep Nylander and Tavares. Get great value back and build from that. 16 and 34 wanna get paaaaiiid.
 
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I am Canadian

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May 22, 2008
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MacKinnon's cap was 15.22% [12.6M]. Same percentage for the cap as predicted for 24-25 would be 13.45M with an 87.7M cap. This better not be a 3 year deal. Only way this makes sense is if the cap is expected to jump massively and this is a 5 year deal imo.
 
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dirtydanglez

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Oct 30, 2022
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McKinnon's cap was 15.22% [12.6M]. Same percentage for the cap as predicted for 24-25 would be 13.45M with an 87.7M cap. This better not be a 3 year deal. Only way this makes sense is if the cap is expected to jump massively and this is a 5 year deal imo.
if he gets to ufa hes a goner, imo.

the equivalent contract for this season is $12.75m x 8.
 

Boxscore

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The list of players in the league the last decade or so worth that kind of relative AAV is a short one IMO. Where their talents are so great they can win you playoff series. Matthews is a superstar but the Leafs aren't advancing and it's clear they can't plug the holes on that roster from lack of cap space.

For that AAV to be justified Matthews has to be the best player in the world. Hey maybe he was injured last year and that took him down a peg this season. Could be true. For that AAV you'd hope he recovers and returns back to his Hart-level play.

Marner will surely look to Matthew's contract as a guidepost. That'll be terrible cap value for the Leafs going forward. Toews and Kane got their raises because they had already won their Cups and were chasing a 3rd. They both won a Smythe too. Regardless of the Hawks never winning even a playoff series again with those $10.5m AAV's, what have Matthews and Marner done to warrant an even fattier contract on top of the one they're already not winning Cups with?

Easy for me to say as a non-Leaf fan but...trade em. Trade em both. Keep Nylander and Tavares. Get great value back and build from that. 16 and 34 wanna get paaaaiiid.
This is one of the most level-headed and honest posts I've read about the situation. You are exactly right. If the Leafs won a Cup -- let alone two -- I wouldn't care if Matthews and Marner were paid so much money that we couldn't ice a full team. But paying these guys like they're McDavid and Draisaitl has been a losing recipe for years. It doesn't work because these kids aren't great enough to carry the Leafs on their shoulders. They need better quality help which costs money. And the only way to free up that money is if the stars all take less. Matthews acts like he's Gretzky or Lemieux negotiating these deals, it's ridiculous.

You are also correct in that Matthews' contract will be the measuring stick for the other kids, which is exactly why Nylander is waiting to see if 34 is willing to leave money on the table. If Matthews does, it makes a strong case for Nylander and Marner to do the same. If Matthews doesn't, they won't either, and they'll likely be traded because of it (one of them at least). In the end, it's the Leafs and the die-hard fans who pay the price. Matthews and his fat contract will eventually move on without a Cup and sign another fat contract in another city. Maybe at the end of his career, he'll try to latch on to a winner like Thornton and Marleau attempted to do, and hope to sneak in a last minute Cup to prop his legacy.
 

belzebob1

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Jun 22, 2022
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if 13.5 are the sort of numbers they are throwing around, they better hope for a short term deal.

he is not worth it, and if they ever try to trade him they will be eating half that salary
 

belzebob1

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Jun 22, 2022
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maybe this is just another option for the manager.

instead of buying out Murray, Mathews at 50% for a short term, may be enough to get a team to bite.

Mathews gets the return he deserves which is nothing, but the leafs gain some cap space
 
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