Confirmed with Link: Kyle Dubas Not Returning

[Superstar]

I want to make note that Dubas ran the day to day operations for the Leafs. Shanny was involved obviously and would be the final check mark on major deals. Ownership is not involved in everyday personnel decisions. Not sure where friedman was going with that one and he made it seem like every decision is run up the mlse board chain before approval, thats wrong. He clearly didnt know what he was trying to explain there which is why he said would elaborate more when he gets more info. Shouldnt have even mentioned that because ppl on here thing ownership is running operations. Go watch that amazon 6 episode leafs thing where they made the filogno deal. Heck, dubas made the deal on the spot without telling shanny about the extra pick. This whole thing that ownership has to approve transactions is false.

I also believe and its clear that the writing was on the wall for dubas when they board didnt want to extend him last off season. And why would they? There were no results. They werent going to invest another 5 years in him. Shanny knew this and im sure theres a list shanny had throughout the year. Lets see who he gets.

The only reason why Dubas even got an extension offer was because of Shanny speaking on his behalf, but Dubas flushed it down the toilet.

 

[LaPlante94]

I guess me saying he's underrated is towards the people who say he's absolute trash and shouldn't play.
If you're a contender and he's slotting in on your second pair, that's probably not a good thing but I defintely think he's good enough to be in alot of teams top 6 and be a solid contributer on a 3rd pairing. I honestly see both sides to this argument and have had stretchs were I saw Holl as an effective player but then other times where you question if he should play. He is a very polarizing player thats forsure.

I wish he would be consistent because then I wouldn't mind him playing, but I just don't like how he can play bad for so long and just get more ice time while someone like Liljegren would get benched and healthy scratched for making the same turnover Holl has done many times in 1 game. Then when we got Schenn they were saying why do we need a #8 d man and why should he play over Holl. Then we see why and some still tried to act like Holl was better and we need an upgrade on Schenn. I'll give some analytics people credit for giving props where it was due but you can tell it was painful for them to do so because they didn't want to admit a guy like Schenn could be useful on a playoff team.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Here's my thing. Some of those same analytics people that say Holl is underrated and people fail to look at his deployment and all that context stuff you brought up will do the exact same thing with 4th liners on our team. They were starting 90-95% of their shifts in the d zone and people wondered why they didn't look great. Find me any player that starts that percentage of their shifts in the d zone that look good or have a good game. Keefe finally starts to fix that deployment and they became effective. So when I see them say that and then say Holl is better than what these analytics say or what most people say I can't really take them seriously. Other then being a damn good shot blocker on the PK what is it about him that makes him a top 4 defender like analytics people will say? I see a guy who struggles under pressure, handles the puck like a grenade, not very fast and pretty damn weak for his size. He's had stretches where you can make an argument that he could be a useful defender but he's not consistent.

Well there are still limits to everything. Kampf, for example had a 48 xGF% in his role. Playing in an offensive role, that is bad. Playing in his role, that is pretty good.

NAK had a 32% and Hunt had a 37%. Even with the tougher, more defensive role, that still sucks and is nowhere near good enough for them to stick in our lineup.

Holl was at 52% both in xGF and GF% in a fairly tough role during the regular season, and people still thought he sucked. The thing is, his numbers rarely did suck even without considering the context of his role too much.

 

[LaPlante94]

Well there are still limits to everything. Kampf, for example had a 48 xGF% in his role. Playing in an offensive role, that is bad. Playing in his role, that is pretty good.

NAK had a 32% and Hunt had a 37%. Even with the tougher, more defensive role, that still sucks and is nowhere near good enough for them to stick in our lineup.

Holl was at 52% both in xGF and GF% in a fairly tough role during the regular season, and people still thought he sucked. The thing is, his numbers rarely did suck even without considering the context of his role too much.

This is where these stats don't mean as much to me as some. He can be the cause for 2 GAs and possibly those goals cost us the game and they'll say well he had a 63% xGF or whatever so he wasn't the problem and I'm just like did you watch the game and see those 2 GAs that cost us the game. Some of these stats seem like they're gonna be inflated playing 20-25 minutes a game and playing a big chunk with some of our best offensive players. How many times has offensive possessions just died when the puck got on Holls stick as well? Imagine if that was Luke Schenn. The fit some of these people would be having would be insane. Guys like NAK and Hunt got very small sample sizes here and with some of the additions at the deadline I think those types of players would have been more effective with players like Acciari who plays a similar game, especially NAK. The deployment though I was mainly talking about in the playoffs with ZAR, Lafferty and Kampf when they started 90+% of their starts in the d zone.

 

[hockeywiz542]

MAPLE LEAF NOTES: Kyle Dubas to Pittsburgh could be back on

Kyle Dubas could wind up getting an interview as GM of the Pittsburgh Penguins after all, a week after he said it was Leafs or bust.

torontosun.com

Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas speaks about his family and his future with the organization at the podium on locker clean-up day in Toronto on Monday May 15, 2023. Photo by Jack Boland /Toronto Sun/Postmedia Network

A week after he assured the media he wouldn’t suddenly pop up somewhere else in the NHL if the Maple Leafs fired him, Kyle Dubas could be on the Pittsburgh Penguins’ radar.

That was the team he was immediately linked to after calls for change in Toronto increased with its meek playoff exit against Florida. The Penguins were well into the search to replace Brian Burke (another one-time Leaf exec) and Ron Hextall in their front office, when Dubas said last Monday he’d either remain in place or accept his pink slip and take time off with his family after what he described as an emotionally difficult season.

But his surprise dismissal by club president Brendan Shanahan after Dubas dithered about terms of his extension, raised questions if he’d really turn down an offer to get right back in the game.

While Dubas has yet to speak publicly about his convoluted departure – Shanahan shared his version with the media on Friday – Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported Saturday night that the Pens will likely approach the Leafs for permission to speak to Dubas prior to his official contract expiration on June 30.

That has not been confirmed on the Pittsburgh side yet. Led by David Beeston of the Fenway Sports Group, that club was well into the process of looking into leading candidates Dan MacKinnon (senior vice-president of the Devils), Eric Tulsky (assistant GM of the Hurricanes), Steve Greeley (director of scouting and hockey strategy in Dallas) and Jason Karmanos (Buffalo’s associate GM).

If Dubas intends a quick return somewhere, it would be worth the phone call by Beeston to Shanahan for due diligence. Dubas has some name recognition which has excited fans in the Steel City who are unfamiliar with the other candidates and it would be an instant conference rivalry.

But should he even get to the interview stage, Dubas would have to walk back a portion of Monday’s emotional address.

 

[sxvnert]

MAPLE LEAF NOTES: Kyle Dubas to Pittsburgh could be back on

Kyle Dubas could wind up getting an interview as GM of the Pittsburgh Penguins after all, a week after he said it was Leafs or bust.

torontosun.com

Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas speaks about his family and his future with the organization at the podium on locker clean-up day in Toronto on Monday May 15, 2023. Photo by Jack Boland /Toronto Sun/Postmedia Network

A week after he assured the media he wouldn’t suddenly pop up somewhere else in the NHL if the Maple Leafs fired him, Kyle Dubas could be on the Pittsburgh Penguins’ radar.

That was the team he was immediately linked to after calls for change in Toronto increased with its meek playoff exit against Florida. The Penguins were well into the search to replace Brian Burke (another one-time Leaf exec) and Ron Hextall in their front office, when Dubas said last Monday he’d either remain in place or accept his pink slip and take time off with his family after what he described as an emotionally difficult season.

But his surprise dismissal by club president Brendan Shanahan after Dubas dithered about terms of his extension, raised questions if he’d really turn down an offer to get right back in the game.

While Dubas has yet to speak publicly about his convoluted departure – Shanahan shared his version with the media on Friday – Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported Saturday night that the Pens will likely approach the Leafs for permission to speak to Dubas prior to his official contract expiration on June 30.

That has not been confirmed on the Pittsburgh side yet. Led by David Beeston of the Fenway Sports Group, that club was well into the process of looking into leading candidates Dan MacKinnon (senior vice-president of the Devils), Eric Tulsky (assistant GM of the Hurricanes), Steve Greeley (director of scouting and hockey strategy in Dallas) and Jason Karmanos (Buffalo’s associate GM).

If Dubas intends a quick return somewhere, it would be worth the phone call by Beeston to Shanahan for due diligence. Dubas has some name recognition which has excited fans in the Steel City who are unfamiliar with the other candidates and it would be an instant conference rivalry.

But should he even get to the interview stage, Dubas would have to walk back a portion of Monday’s emotional address.

A week after he assured the media he wouldn’t suddenly pop up somewhere else in the NHL if the Maple Leafs fired him, Kyle Dubas could be on the Pittsburgh Penguins’ radar.

Further proof his "family stress" was a negotiating tactic and hes completely full of shit.

 

[Gallagbi]

Further proof his "family stress" was a negotiating tactic and hes completely full of shit.

It says the Pens may want to ask about him, doesnt it?

 

[Turin]

Further proof his "family stress" was a negotiating tactic and hes completely full of shit.

Not necessarily. He could have felt that way on Monday, decided w/ family to return on Wednesday and then got fired on Friday. In which case, it wouldn't make sense for him to not seek employment elsewhere while his family situation is resolved.

 

[andora]

This is where these stats don't mean as much to me as some. He can be the cause for 2 GAs and possibly those goals cost us the game and they'll say well he had a 63% xGF or whatever so he wasn't the problem and I'm just like did you watch the game and see those 2 GAs that cost us the game. Some of these stats seem like they're gonna be inflated playing 20-25 minutes a game and playing a big chunk with some of our best offensive players. How many times has offensive possessions just died when the puck got on Holls stick as well? Imagine if that was Luke Schenn. The fit some of these people would be having would be insane. Guys like NAK and Hunt got very small sample sizes here and with some of the additions at the deadline I think those types of players would have been more effective with players like Acciari who plays a similar game, especially NAK. The deployment though I was mainly talking about in the playoffs with ZAR, Lafferty and Kampf when they started 90+% of their starts in the d zone.

But as he was saying - effectively using this stuff in a nutshell is to be combined with video analysis and direct comparison to other numbers / players on ice

where people do get into trouble is when they use these things statically - like you describe above.

 

[The Masters]

Lol welcome to amateur hour everyone. Kids eat free before 8

 

[andora]

Lol welcome to amateur hour everyone. Kids eat free before 8

Lol.. i would be so terrible about this.. 3 months later my wife would go - did you update your linkedin?

 

[ToneDog]

Lol welcome to amateur hour everyone. Kids eat free before 8

Has he updated his profile to unemployed on monster.com and ziprecruiter.com?

 

[andora]

Lol.. i would be so terrible about this.. 3 months later my wife would go - did you update your linkedin?

And he didnt even change his picture to a family shot

Priorities

 

[rocketman588]

Lol welcome to amateur hour everyone. Kids eat free before 8

Did people think he was coming back after shanny told him to publicly f*** off or what

Dude is showing a high level of professionalism

 

[Leaf Fans]

Lol welcome to amateur hour everyone. Kids eat free before 8

He is no longer the General Manager of the Maple Leafs he updated his twitter to reflect that. He might update it again when he gets a new job.

Did people think he was coming back after shanny told him to publicly f*** off or what

Dude is showing a high level of professionalism

Shanny didn't do that.

 

[The Masters]

He is no longer the General Manager of the Maple Leafs he updated his twitter to reflect that. He might update it again when he gets a new job.


Shanny didn't do that.

I dont think you are understanding what is going in here lol.

 

[Leaf Fans]

I dont think you are understanding what is going in here lol.

Oh, ok,

 

[LaPlante94]

But as he was saying - effectively using this stuff in a nutshell is to be combined with video analysis and direct comparison to other numbers / players on ice

where people do get into trouble is when they use these things statically - like you describe above.

Mhm. Like I don't care if you want to use analytics to show someone had a good game or whatever, but don't tell me someone had a good game when they had 2 turnovers or more that lead to goals against that lost us the game and say that player wasn't the problem.

 

[Donnie740]

Absolutely, and another example of lacking context for those stats too.

Which is the main reason why there is hesitancy with +/- as a stat. I personally think there is some value to it, but of course you need context on it.

Holl was on the ice for 70% of the goals against. That is factual. Usually, not a good thing. Certainly a correlation worth exploring. The thing is, and this is why I really question people's eye tests, is that when you do dig deeper, you see that on more than a few of those goals, he is far from the reason why it went in the net. Forwards were missing assignments. Samsonov let some really soft goals in the net. Some really poor play from his partners. Sure Holl messed up too on some of them, and he, like many of the other defensemen on our team, had a rough playoffs at times.

Since I feel as though people will get too caught up in the biases of using names, I will just use a very simple to understand (and likely unrealistic) example: *Disclaimer, I am in no way saying that this applies to Justin Holl specifically and I do not want to suggest this is how it is when Holl is on the ice.

Say there is a defense pairing. We'll call them Pairing A. They play 25 minutes a night against tough competition. Never gives up anything more than a couple unscreened, undeflected floaters from the blue line... In other words, shots that the goalie should be making close to 100% of the time. But the goalie, for whatever reason, can't save it for crap. Goes in every time, 2 or 3 times a game. For the other 35 minutes, he is the best ice hockey goalie to ever grace this earth even though the other two pairings are complete tire fires and shouldn't even be in the NHL. Rarely gives up a goal, regardless of it being a Grade A one-timer or a breakaway.

Pairing A is probably on the ice for let's say 90% of the GA. So statistically, or at least in that statistic, they obviously suck. However, looking at their other statistics or even just watching them on the ice, anyone would see that clearly it is not their fault as much as the goalie on the ice. The goalie would have a brutal xGSA with Pairing A on the ice. They'd probably have the best underlying metrics in NHL history (and yes, even those require context).

Meanwhile, the other two pairings would be the polar opposites. Terrible underlying numbers but their actual numbers are great.

If Pairing A's goalie makes the saves he is supposed to make, they are likely never on the ice for a goal against for as long as they continue playing like they have. Meanwhile, the other two pairings likely find themselves out of work very fast as soon as the goalie stops bailing them out. Which would you prefer? I would think anyone with eyes would still take Pairing A, but at the same time, there are very few times when it is that obvious of a discrepancy as well.

People who are actually good at statistics and analytics know how to find and understand this context, or when a stat does not tell the entire story about a player, and they know that it does not exclusively come from looking at a spreadsheet... Which is exactly why that is not what they do. Of course, it also does not exclusively come from their eye test either. The good ones are able to find the best associations between statistics and know how to apply statistics to reality; for example:

- Is there a relationship between xGA and GA? Spoiler: A fairly strong positive correlation between the two.
- Do we care about a lot of chances or just having a few good ones?
- Is there anything supporting a player continuing to have a 20% shooting percentage long term, or is he just on a hot streak?
- Is Pairing A really as bad as their GA numbers suggest, or is there something else involved?

These are easier questions an NHL analytics department would be able to answer, with numbers alone, but there would never be a decision made without getting a scout or even an analytics person themselves (since believe it or not, people who work in NHL analytics departments often know more about hockey than a typical fan) to confirm the numbers. And the best teams are able to leverage both of those perspectives harmonically to be able to make the best, or at least most informed, decisions possible. And the more informed decisions you make, the better chance you are to make the decisions which lead to good results.

But I think the main lesson to glean from what I said is that analytics people do not just look at spreadsheets. At least not the good ones. I do not work for the Leafs, but I would be willing to bet that they are not only looking at spreadsheets either. As for Justin Holl, it has been proven time and again that most people's eye-tests on him are extremely biased at best or downright faulty at worst... And he is a lot better than the scrub they think he is.

Perfect example of trying to spin analytics in your favour when it doesn’t fit your agenda.

Reaching for an excuse that he was up against the opposition’s top line. Blaming the goalie for not making the save.

Justin Holl might be a serviceable defenceman in the regular season when the games are irrelevant and nobody cares, but in the playoffs when it matters and the intensity ratchets up, Holl was atrocious.

But it’s not Holl’s fault that he’s a no-talent hack who belongs in the ECHL at best.

It’s the incompetent coach who insisted on playing him when he was an obvious liability. And the useless GM who figured if he could win an AHL championship with Holl he must be able to win an NHL championship with him too.

Mercifully, Dubas is gone. Keefe and Holl will be gone shortly.

Finally, after a half decade of horrible decisions by a pair of hopelessly inept gimps, the Leafs have done hope for playoff success.

 

[Donnie740]

Mhm. Like I don't care if you want to use analytics to show someone had a good game or whatever, but don't tell me someone had a good game when they had 2 turnovers or more that lead to goals against that lost us the game and say that player wasn't the problem.

Anyone remember the goal where Holl was trying his best to skate backwards then when he realized he was way too slow, he turned the wrong way and the winger went right around in untouched for a backbreaking goal?

HOLL TURNED THE WRONG WAY.

Let’s see the Dubas Fan Boi Club try to spin that humiliation away and try to pretend Holl made an “expected” great defensive play.

 

[robertmac43]

After sitting on this for a couple days now, I still don't like it one bit.....

 

[nuck]

Not necessarily. He could have felt that way on Monday, decided w/ family to return on Wednesday and then got fired on Friday. In which case, it wouldn't make sense for him to not seek employment elsewhere while his family situation is resolved.

It sure did get weird at the end but I just see it as Kyle getting a bit unravelled after a bad end to a stressful season. I would need some real evidence before I bought into this being some kind of awkward power grab. I think we are overanalyzing an erratic couple of days and trying to put it into a normal context.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Lol welcome to amateur hour everyone. Kids eat free before 8

My God, those comments. He's actually managed to create a cult following.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Lol welcome to amateur hour everyone. Kids eat free before 8

Change his bio to arrogant failure maybe

 

[hockeywiz542]

Do you agree with this interpretation from Twitter regarding the breakdown in negotiations between Toronto Maple Leafs President and Alternate Governor Brendan Shanahan and former GM Kyle Dubas?