Tribute Kyle Dubas discussion

[Antropovsky]

“Speed and skill had once been emphasized over size and grit. Six consecutive first-round playoff losses changed that.”​

Dave Poulin: Kyle Dubas shifted his Leafs game plan to try and beat the Lightning. And it just might work

Speed and skill had once been emphasized over size and grit. Six consecutive first-round playoff losses changed that.

www.thestar.com

Amen!

There was a group of us saying the leafs needed to get tougher or more physical and we were constantly told we were wrong.

Point remains 114 point team with a bevy of young high end players under team control. By your own words either signed long term at reasonable prices, or dealt in "excellent" trades, with the returns factoring in. The result, a middling team with the 18th cumulative record in the 5 years since.

Not being a prime UFA destination is a fair point.

Now as to handwaving away the entirety of the Leafs team because they want to be here- absolute nonsense.

A- they wanted to play for this version of the Leafs, that doesn't mean that they were Toronto or nothing, regardless of the situation. Do you think Spezza keeps coming back year after year if Babcock's treatment of him and others was allowed to continue? Do you think others would have come if he gets run out of town? If the org got a rep as a clown show or shitty place to play?

B (and bigger). He get's credit for them. He didn't have to sign/ trade for them. Their interest is not binding. There were alternatives. If they flop, it's on him.

Winnipeg's key young talent has gone nowhere, in fact they were signed to great long term deals. Byfuglien aged and retired, wheeler aged 5 years since and Trouba held out and was traded because he hated Winnipeg. Also because they were an excellent team, they haven't been able to draft as well as they did when they were dreadful. It's the natural course of NHL teams. Put Byfuglien and prime Wheeler and full year of Ehlers and that team is at the top again.

They made the playoffs this year, despite Ehlers missing half the year.

If the leafs were in Winnipeg when Dubas inherited the team... Then he very likely doesn't have Tavares, Brodie, Oreilly or Gio right now.

Other than the above players he has a few bad trades under his belt (Folgino, Kadri), a couple good ones (Kapanen), some bottom 9 shuffling and no real significant free agency adds.

Dubas one saving grace might be his eye for talent, Knies, Robertson, Steeves, McCann, Holmgren, Niemela, Good post first round picks and good free wallets. Though we still have yet to see any of them blossom into impact players.

 

[stickty111]

Lyubushkin, Clifford. The signings of Simmonds, Ritchie, Bogosian.

I dont see how those moves are different from the ones he just made other than O'Rielly and Acciari being higher quality players.

Dubas hasn't been resistent to grit if anything he's leaned too much into it, but I think this trade deadline at least that grit has a lot of playing ability.

 

[WTFMAN99]

There was a group of us saying the leafs needed to get tougher or more physical and we were constantly told we were wrong.

Winnipeg's key young talent has gone nowhere, in fact they were signed to great long term deals. Byfuglien aged and retired, wheeler aged 5 years since and Trouba held out and was traded because he hated Winnipeg. Also because they were an excellent team, they haven't been able to draft as well as they did when they were dreadful. It's the natural course of NHL teams. Put Byfuglien and prime Wheeler and full year of Ehlers and that team is at the top again.

They made the playoffs this year, despite Ehlers missing half the year.

If the leafs were in Winnipeg when Dubas inherited the team... Then he very likely doesn't have Tavares, Brodie, Oreilly or Gio right now.

Other than the above players he has a few bad trades under his belt (Folgino, Kadri), a couple good ones (Kapanen), some bottom 9 shuffling and no real significant free agency adds.

Dubas one saving grace might be his eye for talent, Knies, Robertson, Steeves, McCann, Holmgren, Niemela, Good post first round picks and good free wallets. Though we still have yet to see any of them blossom into impact players.

Dubas would have run 2018 draft onwards;

2018
Sandin graduated - traded for a 1st
Durzi - Traded - NHLer
Kral/Holmberg seem likely for bottom pair / bottom 6 roles as soon as next year or the year following

2019
Robertson looked ready in training camp, had a good first game after the call up and then got injured again.
Most of the rest of the draft class looks promising with the except of Loponen.

2020
Amiriv - N/A - looked promising but brain cancer has derailed things
Hirvonen and Niemela are coming to North America finally but probably a few years off
Not really writing off anyone else since we're barely 3 years since the draft

2021 and 2022 draft classes seem too early to tell but Knies seems like a home run at this point.

Again, I have shit on Dubas so much... but this year seems to be the year that everything has started to click for him.

 

[Stephen]

There was a group of us saying the leafs needed to get tougher or more physical and we were constantly told we were wrong.

It's frustrating how obvious a point it was. When you have 12 F 6 D you don't have to choose between speed, skill and size and physicality. You can have it all.

For the first time in maybe the entire history of the franchise, we had the unique high end skill at the start of their careers all starting together. All we needed was a normally balanced core with typically valuable assets like size, physicality, some demonstrable meanness to support them in battle.

Looks like we are finally rounding into form. Better late than never.

 

[SoftDumpNtheCorner88]

DON'T CARE WHAT THE RESULT this year's playoffs, you sign DUBAS.

Dube's is also still learning and growing as a GM and IMO he's been getting better the longer he's been GM.. I also think he's generating more respect around the league among the other GMs too.

This TDL has been his best one yet, and of course these moves can blow up in our faces but at this current time I feel we would absolutely trade those pieces for what we got. The first to go would be Keefe, he might shine somewhere else but I feel the team will have subconsciously lost confidence in their coach come playoffs if we don't pass the 1st round again.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

DON'T CARE WHAT THE RESULT this year's playoffs, you sign DUBAS.

Dube's is also still learning and growing as a GM and IMO he's been getting better the longer he's been GM.. I also think he's generating more respect around the league among the other GMs too.

This TDL has been his best one yet, and of course these moves can blow up in our faces but at this current time I feel we would absolutely trade those pieces for what we got. The first to go would be Keefe, he might shine somewhere else but I feel the team will have subconsciously lost confidence in their coach come playoffs if we don't pass the 1st round again.

I've got to agree. The time I might have gotten rid of both he and Keefe was after the Montreal series. But last year he picked up Gio and we were very close to beating Tampa, and this year he's picked up an excellent playoff performer in ROR and solid bottom 6er Acciari. Regardless of what happens, I think Dubas should be re-signed because he deserves it. If we do lose in the first round, I'm afraid the one to go would have to be Keefe for not being able to get this excellent team assembled by Dubas over the hump. I'd also give this core ONE more shot at it with another voice calling the shots.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's frustrating how obvious a point it was. When you have 12 F 6 D you don't have to choose between speed, skill and size and physicality. You can have it all.

We have had all of speed, skill, size, and physicality for a while. We have never shied away from adding any of these aspects.
In fact, nobody has ever had an argument against physicality and toughness. The only argument has been against massively overvaluing it above all other aspects, incorrectly blaming losses on a wrongly perceived lack of it, and misrepresenting Dubas and his beliefs.

 

[notbias]

Didnt Dubas acquire Muzz and Foligno in previous deadlines? Feels like there was other moves likes this previously

Get out of here with facts, let them push a narrative.

 

[Stephen]

We have had all of speed, skill, size, and physicality for a while. We have never shied away from adding any of these aspects.
In fact, nobody has ever had an argument against physicality and toughness. The only argument has been against massively overvaluing it above all other aspects, incorrectly blaming losses on a wrongly perceived lack of it, and misrepresenting Dubas and his beliefs.

Oh really, is that why we just added ROR, Acciari, Lafferty, McCabe and Schenn in one bulk buy?

 

[francis246]

I've got to agree. The time I might have gotten rid of both he and Keefe was after the Montreal series. But last year he picked up Gio and we were very close to beating Tampa, and this year he's picked up an excellent playoff performer in ROR and solid bottom 6er Acciari. Regardless of what happens, I think Dubas should be re-signed because he deserves it. If we do lose in the first round, I'm afraid the one to go would have to be Keefe for not being able to get this excellent team assembled by Dubas over the hump. I'd also give this core ONE more shot at it with another voice calling the shots.

I wish Dubas got a new coach after Montreal, that was the time to do it. There were so many good options available. I think a new voice would have helped last year.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Oh really, is that why we just added ROR, Acciari, Lafferty, McCabe and Schenn in one bulk buy?

A continuation of what we've done for a while. Just more of it in one go. And players that bring a lot more than just physicality and toughness to our team.

 

[Dekes For Days]

For the record, these are Dubas' deadline additions prior to this year:

Muzzin
Foligno
Giordano
Lyubushkin
Clifford
Nash
Blackwell
Campbell
Rittich
Hutton

The only change is that this year we went for it and added more pieces than any prior year. And even that doesn't really seem like a philosophy change. It's just a big contending year, and there were a lot of sellers and some good pieces they've liked for a while available this year.

 

[deprw]

Oh really, is that why we just added ROR, Acciari, Lafferty, McCabe and Schenn in one bulk buy?

You have to always factor in timing. Different assets are available different times. When we acquired Foligno, it was pretty clear that he was only relevant veteran option for us in the UFA crop. Hall would have been different player. Babcock hated Muzzin for being lefty, but it was pretty clear at the time, that it was rare case of top3 defenseman being available.

Toughness with skating or skill is pretty rarely available or there are question marks. We hate Justin Holl and we can still probably justify his protection. It is easy to acquire softer scoring wingers, those are always available. Defense or toughness rarely is. Dubas has acquired players like Muzzin, Holl, Brodie etc. during his tenure.

Mostly because Dubas inherited pretty soft defense and team in overall from Lou and it have been process of adding defense and toughness. It isn't change you can do overnight and I know you know that. I'm not saying that Dubas has done perfect job, but there is a reason why teams overpay for players like Lucic and Chiarot.

We have avoided those mistakes. This year we had an option to add Conn Smythe winner O'Reilly, which isn't the case every year and we also went after players like Schenn who wasn't as expensive as player with that skillset usually is during this time of year.

 

[rocketman588]

According to Frank Seravalli, Kyle Dubas could become the new GM of the Ottawa Senators depending on who is the new owner of that hockey club.

Frank Seravalli seems to be doing Dubas's negotiating for him Mitch Marner style.

If he's making personnel decisions I assume it means front office staff or on Keefe if they lose this series. I don't think Shanny is calling up GMs making trades without it getting known widely in the media

 

[Mess]

It was smart of MLSE ownership to keep Dubas head in a vice and in a lame duck position, recognizing his lack of playoff achievement, and thus needing to earn an extension on merit of performance, and not rewarded for failure.

The playoffs is where ownership makes its biggest return on investment from home gate receipts once players salaries (a team's biggest expense) end with the regular season and now turns to true profit. So with disappointing first round exits year after year under Dubas there has been a massive opportunity loss. Leafs profit ratio might be $5-8 mil per home game in the playoffs, or more when you include all other revenue streams in additions to just butts in seats..

MLSE has shareholders, investors and luxuary suite owners etc to appease with concrete team success results which the playoffs are the most important of all, to whom they must answer to.

No more excuses or respect in handshake lines. MLSE is saying "Show me the money" and then we'll give you a contract extension.

It would be hard to imagine another disappointing first round exit will not force management changes for MLSE to appease not only fans, but many other financially invested parties in the outcome.

PS. The transactions at the trade deadline where fueled by going ALL-In in not only a desire to win but job preservation for the GM and coach, as a result of expiring management contracts.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I've got to agree. The time I might have gotten rid of both he and Keefe was after the Montreal series. But last year he picked up Gio and we were very close to beating Tampa, and this year he's picked up an excellent playoff performer in ROR and solid bottom 6er Acciari. Regardless of what happens, I think Dubas should be re-signed because he deserves it. If we do lose in the first round, I'm afraid the one to go would have to be Keefe for not being able to get this excellent team assembled by Dubas over the hump. I'd also give this core ONE more shot at it with another voice calling the shots.

That's the only question I have - would Dubas be willing to replace Keefe? Sometimes I fear that he takes the concept of loyalty too far and his comments of Keefe being a future coaching legend or whatever after last season were cringeworthy.

 

[Antropovsky]

For the record, these are Dubas' deadline additions prior to this year:

Muzzin
Foligno
Giordano
Lyubushkin
Clifford
Nash
Blackwell
Campbell
Rittich
Hutton

The only change is that this year we went for it and added more pieces than any prior year. And even that doesn't really seem like a philosophy change. It's just a big contending year, and there were a lot of sellers and some good pieces they've liked for a while available this year.

From the article written by former NHL executive and posted by @DarkKnight above:

This wasn’t the original plan. Speed and skill had been emphasized over size and grit. Six consecutive first-round playoff losses changed that. The new pieces are more suited to rugged playoff hockey, and to neutralizing Tampa Bay in particular.

 

[MSteve]

I've liked how Dubas has handled the team, there were some mistakes but not HUGE ones, no anchro contracts. And he's been behind the ball since COVID destroyed the cap at the worst time. The biggest mistake is not firing Keefe, I don't hate him but no way he should have been brought back after last year. (probably after Montreal).

 

[Dekes For Days]

From the article written by former NHL executive and posted by @DarkKnight above:

You seem to think I care what some guy's unsupported opinion in some silly article is. I'm not exactly surprised that Toronto hockey media is trying to sell an incorrect narrative.

 

[ACC1224]

I've liked how Dubas has handled the team, there were some mistakes but not HUGE ones, no anchro contracts. And he's been behind the ball since COVID destroyed the cap at the worst time. The biggest mistake is not firing Keefe, I don't hate him but no way he should have been brought back after last year. (probably after Montreal).

That one was inexcusable, no one would disagree with that.

 

[Gary Nylund]

That one was inexcusable, no one would disagree with that.

You keep making this mistake of thinking you speak for everyone and you're incredibly naive if you think that the millions of Leaf fans feel the same way about anything.

 

[Stephen]

You have to always factor in timing. Different assets are available different times. When we acquired Foligno, it was pretty clear that he was only relevant veteran option for us in the UFA crop. Hall would have been different player. Babcock hated Muzzin for being lefty, but it was pretty clear at the time, that it was rare case of top3 defenseman being available.

Toughness with skating or skill is pretty rarely available or there are question marks. We hate Justin Holl and we can still probably justify his protection. It is easy to acquire softer scoring wingers, those are always available. Defense or toughness rarely is. Dubas has acquired players like Muzzin, Holl, Brodie etc. during his tenure.

Mostly because Dubas inherited pretty soft defense and team in overall from Lou and it have been process of adding defense and toughness. It isn't change you can do overnight and I know you know that. I'm not saying that Dubas has done perfect job, but there is a reason why teams overpay for players like Lucic and Chiarot.

We have avoided those mistakes. This year we had an option to add Conn Smythe winner O'Reilly, which isn't the case every year and we also went after players like Schenn who wasn't as expensive as player with that skillset usually is during this time of year.

I’m going to have to disagree with this one. Whenever there is a conversation about team toughness or size and Milan Lucic and Ben Chiarot are brought up, it tells me someone is looking at the most overpaid and over valued and most disliked examples of player in class and making excuses as to why we didn’t bring on those players. It would be like trying to invalidate skill and offense but saying “yeah but Jeff Skinner.”

Guys like Schenn and Acciari are always available. Lafferty was a free agent. Guys like Sean Kuraly are similar players at a higher price point. There’s Hakanpaa, Ryan Graves. Jonas Siegenthaler.

On the big fish trade market, Jake Muzzin wasn’t the last quality defenseman that was traded in the past 5 years. We could have had a tough, two way, do everything defenseman in Hampus Lindholm if that was a priority.

What I don’t appreciate is Dubas is finally earning his flowers and the response is “yeah well but he couldn’t before” or “he’s always built mean tough teams.” Can’t have it both ways.

 

[rocketman588]

That's the only question I have - would Dubas be willing to replace Keefe? Sometimes I fear that he takes the concept of loyalty too far and his comments of Keefe being a future coaching legend or whatever after last season were cringeworthy.

This is the big question if we lose in round 1 or even don't look great in 2

Dubas needs to be at a minimum willing to part with Keefe if we don't succeed.

I also think he needs to be confident enough to hire an experienced coach and give him what he wants. Trying to make Babcock play Jack Han ball then undermining him to get his way and get him out was arrogant.

I would love to get someone with cup success and then have Dubas work with him to succeed instead of pushing a specific brand of hockey which is what he gets with Keefe

 

[deprw]

I’m going to have to disagree with this one. Whenever there is a conversation about team toughness or size and Milan Lucic and Ben Chiarot are brought up, it tells me someone is looking at the most overpaid and over valued and most disliked examples of player in class and making excuses as to why we didn’t bring on those players. It would be like trying to invalidate skill and offense but saying “yeah but Jeff Skinner.”

Guys like Schenn and Acciari are always available. Lafferty was a free agent. Guys like Sean Kuraly are similar players at a higher price point. There’s Hakanpaa, Ryan Graves. Jonas Siegenthaler.

On the big fish trade market, Jake Muzzin wasn’t the last quality defenseman that was traded in the past 5 years. We could have had a tough, two way, do everything defenseman in Hampus Lindholm if that was a priority.

What I don’t appreciate is Dubas is finally earning his flowers and the response is “yeah well but he couldn’t before” or “he’s always built mean tough teams.” Can’t have it both ways.

Those are prime examples of situations where you want to add toughness, but you don't get your first priority targets and go after certain type of players. That kind of mistakes we have avoided and while I agree, that there have been players on the market it's not always possible to acquire every target you'd like. I think it have been reported that we were after Hakanpaa, but he chose Dallas.

There are usually few key targets you should go after and after that it's decision with added risk. There is good reason that we don't have any bad contracts, since we have avoided those risks. Then used our chances to add Muzzin or Brodie. You could argue that out of five potential top4 -defenseman worth acquiring during last few years (Brodie, Lindholm, Muzzin, Pietrangelo and Toews) we got two. Hardly no one knew at the time that Lindholm or Toews would pan out in new environment like they did.

My point was that every one is after defense and toughness, so you rarely bump into situation where you're ahead of the curve. It's long grind and while we had GM (Burke / Nonis) that sought after that specific skill set and some extent Mark Hunter was the same. We couldn't do that properly even though we used tons of picks and UFA route to succeed.

So it's pretty rare for us that we're in situation like this. Where we have the skill, the toughness and hopefully also the will. It took years from Dubas, but show me a contender from last ten years that didn't have at least or close to decade of build up.

 

[Stephen]

Those are prime examples of situations where you want to add toughness, but you don't get your first priority targets and go after certain type of players. That kind of mistakes we have avoided and while I agree, that there have been players on the market it's not always possible to acquire every target you'd like. I think it have been reported that we were after Hakanpaa, but he chose Dallas.

There are usually few key targets you should go after and after that it's decision with added risk. There is good reason that we don't have any bad contracts, since we have avoided those risks. Then used our chances to add Muzzin or Brodie. You could argue that out of five potential top4 -defenseman worth acquiring during last few years (Brodie, Lindholm, Muzzin, Pietrangelo and Toews) we got two. Hardly no one knew at the time that Lindholm or Toews would pan out in new environment like they did.

My point was that every one is after defense and toughness, so you rarely bump into situation where you're ahead of the curve. It's long grind and while we had GM (Burke / Nonis) that sought after that specific skill set and some extent Mark Hunter was the same. We couldn't do that properly even though we used tons of picks and UFA route to succeed.

So it's pretty rare for us that we're in situation like this. Where we have the skill, the toughness and hopefully also the will. It took years from Dubas, but show me a contender from last ten years that didn't have at least or close to decade of build up.

We could have had more of this size and grit in the supporting cast the whole time without ramping up to this moment. Dubas’ first offseason we basically purged out Polak, Komarov and Martin because it wasn’t the brand of hockey he wanted to play. Two of those guys went on to be fairly decent contributors to the Islanders playoff teams of this era.

I am supportive of his evolution as a GM to get to this level at the end of 2022-23. I don’t support the idea that his inheritance from Lou or market forces held him back from this brand over the years. He learned from his own experiences and adjusted the ratio.