News Article: Kovacevic: Time to trade Letang could be now

[SEALBound]

Resigning is an issue. But at the price someone would offer sheet him for, we get a decent amount I high picks back.

 

[Speaking Moistly]

Yeah he's still an RFA for two more years after this one, but because of how Calgary structured their offer sheet, you have to pay the guy 6.5 mil minimum on his next year's salary. So can keep control of the guy at 6.5 for two years. If you want to buy out UFA years, he'll want a premium beyond that, and because of the cap's predicted increases, he's going to want a new long term deal for big money, and if he doesn't get it, he'll play out the string at 6.5 x 2.

If we trade Letang for the guy, and he won't re-sign, we just hosed ourselves bigtime.

Yeah, you can't risk trading Letang for a player who might not be here in a few years.


Kane and Bylsma could also be a cluster**** and Shero has to be considering that. Bylsma is insane like that, God help us if Bylsma develops a weird thing with a winger Shero acquires for Crosby. He probably would anyway, solidarity with Dupuis, but Bylsma and Kane could be awful.

 

[CraigAdamsnumber1fan*]

http://triblive.com/sports/dejankovacevic/dejancolumns/5448123-74/sports-com-letang

Dejan Kovacevic proposes that, although key to the Penguins, Letang could bring in the pieces that fix the team long-term rather than short term because his value is incredibly high.

Letang signed a eight-year, $58-million contract with a LMC in July.

My take:
I still think trading Letang would be a poor decision. Know that feeling when you can't have something, and it's when you want it the most? Letang fits perfectly in Bylsma's system, and IMO, if traded, he'd bring in offensive gold, but the team would struggle long-term to find 'another' Kris Letang.

The team doesn't need Kris Letang. We need defensemen that can get the puck to our forwards. And fortunately, we have those defensemen already. He is not needed here.

 

[MtlPenFan]

Here's my argument against the Letang enthusiasts. I've pointed them out before, but I'll do it again because this is as appropriate a thread as there is to do so. I'm also going to ask for a little statistical help at the end.

Letang as a PP QB.

I could almost stomach next year's salary if he was even close to Gonch-like on the PP. He isn't, and chances are he never will be. One thing I've seen with defensemen is that while it often takes until their late 20's early 30's to "get it", that's usually on the defensive side of things.

Being a QB on the PP however is a completely different animal. You either have it almost immediately or you don't. It's not something you suddenly "get" after a few seasons, and for the sake of argument say it was. What have we seen from this guy over the last few years to say that improved in that area? Same erratic shot, same erratic decision making, and he STILL can't get it into anyone's wheelhouse for a one time shot on a consistent enough basis.

Letang as a shutdown D-man

He isn't that either. The coaching staff has chosen to have two guys in their 30's to go up against the opposing team's best players. It was the same thing last year.

Letang as a mentor

Well, that idea went out the window when they signed Scuderi, partly to be a babysitter for a player that, while only 26 years old, is an NHL veteran of 6 years. The organization as a whole doesn't see him as any sort of leader.

Decision making/Hockey IQ

I mean...

Maturity

While the playoff meltdowns have been a team concept, he's the poster boy for the group. The more things start to go wrong, the more he plays like an over-caffeinated, out of control teenager. It actually gets worse as his ice time increases.

So what do we have then? A really great skater on the back end that can join the rush and produces points. However, you will never convince me that he's integral for this team's offense. I don't care if he's a PPG player, I don't see the offense "flowing" through him the way it does with a Karlsson or Subban (flawed as they are as well) His point totals are more a byproduct of WHO he passes the puck up to, and I'd love nothing more than to see him be the same player he is now with say, the Habs, and see what kind of point totals he picks up when he's not passing to guys like Malkin and Crosby.

With the right trade, you solve almost every single flaw this team has by moving Letang. Package him with 1 or 2 other guys? The windfall could be staggering. This is all moot of course, because alas, Shero will NEVER do it. This organization seems to be more concerned with looking good than winning championships.


Just a question for guys who are good at looking these stats up. I simply go by what I see and study. I want the following:

Team's GPG with Letang in the lineup vs. out
Team's GAA with Letang in the lineup vs. out
Team's PP% with Letang in the lineup vs. out
Letang's PPG avg. when Sid AND/or Geno are out

And the most important one:
What Sid and Geno's PPG avg. is without Letang in the lineup. Do THEIR point totals suffer when he's out?

 

[jmelm]

Not really, we have Orpik chomping at the bit for a deal right behind Nisky, and we have youngsters fighting to make this roster for next year. And they are taking the risk of injury or a poor playoff performance out of the picture by resigning Nisky early.

And Nisky KNOWS how this org loves Orpik. With Martin, Despres and Maatta you have enough of an offensive contribution, especially with DP on the horizon.

I disagree with you on the Orpik/Nisky and DP:

1) Orpik and Nisky are absolute polar opposites in terms of what they bring to this team. IF (big IF) we were going to trade Letang, we would be short both a right-handed Dman, and also our best offensive Dman. In no way do Orpik and Nisky overlap. Orpik is an un-essential player to maintain for next season regardless of what we did with Niskanen/Letang. We have plenty of left-side "shut down" or defensive type Dmen. We do not have another offensive Dman in our system besides Nisky right now.

2) Regarding Pouliot: he's a great prospect, but he is NOT ready to step in next season. Could he? Sure, probably, but it definitely would not be best for his development and he wouldn't have the type of impact in the immediate term that he would have with some seasoning in WBS for 1 or 2 years. He may be either a replacement or complement to Letang/Nisky down the road, but he does not render those guys unnecessary at all any time soon.

Letang has been part of the reason for collapses in the playoffs ever since we won the cup, and back then he was 6th in ES icetime and received the lowest QOC matchups of all.
Not arguing that Niskanen has not certainly had his struggles also, and more so than Letang, but he legitimately looks better than ever this season, and Letang clearly does not merit the proven playoff warrior tag. Never mind piling up assists in series where the Pens scored at an almost historic rate.

Ok, I respect your point, and we can agree to disagree or meet in the middle. Letang may have had his faults at times (as has the whole team, and maybe it's a coaching issue ), but Letang has been great at other times. Either way, I still view Letang has an extremely talented and tough player who will only get better. I am not averse to trading him for the right offer, but that "right" offer would have to be so overwhelmingly good in terms of what the return would be for me to want to trade him. So as long as he's a piece of our puzzle, I imagine that over the next several years, he will only get better and better.

The Pens aren't trading Letang. Trading him now when his value is low would be moronic. We wouldn't get fair value. When he starts playing better, there would be no point in trading him. He's here to stay for awhile. I don't think moving him is even a possibility until Pouliot is closer to being a top 4 NHL defensemen.

You are most likely right about the first part (the Pens not trading Letang), but you are completely wrong about the 2nd part (about his value being low now).

The reason is because NHL scouts and GMs are not like the people on HF boards, where they have incredibly short memories about just how good this player has been at all stages of his development (junior, WJCs, NHL), and especially the 2 previous years in which he probably would have won the Norris in both of them if he didn't have injuries.

So Letang's value is still tremendous, because a sub-par stretch of games upon coming back from some injuries and having a new partner is not enough to make either the Pens or other teams forget just how valuable Letang is and even how much better he can still be and evolve over the next few years. So there really would not be any concern with "selling low" on this player in the real world. That concern only exists within the realm of the HF boards fantasy hockey and what "have you done for me lately?" mentality.

 

[Pancakes]

It's easy to say that the Pens should trade Letang. Much harder is to find the right deal that would make it actually worth trading him.

Fact is the guy is still a good to great player and will probably rebound from his subpar play this year. Given that, if you trade him, it better be for some real good piece(s).

And I doubt teams will be lining up to trade the type of pieces this board would want in return for Letang. It'd be terrific to get an elite winger for Tanger, but when do elite wingers ever get traded?

 

[Waffle Fries]

He's elite defensively and can put up 60 points. That's just fine with me. As far as Niskanen, would you be comfortable with Despres and Maatta in the top 4? If so, then keep Niskanen on the bottom pair.

I just think that if we're moving Letang we shouldn't be looking for a 'good' offensive player we should be looking for a 'great' one. As far as both Despres and Maatta in the top 4, I don't know how I feel about it right now. But I do know that Niskanen's next contract is going to be huge. I don't think he should be in our top 4 and I don't think paying that price for a third pairing dman is a good idea.

That's not what he said.

Okay. He said "never say never, but odds are O'Reilly stays put unless the Avs are blown away"

ROR is not yet in his prime, looking great scoring at a 30 goal pace his 1st season on the wing, and is an elite puck hound who does all the little things along with superior defense and board work.

He is a great and valuable player that fits everything our management craves in a player, except elite skating. He would immediately turn Geno's line into the undisputed top unit in the league, and would probably look great next to Sid assuming he could transition from LW/C to RW.

I don't know if ROR is a 6.5M winger. I also would be pretty upset if we were to trade Letang for a LW for Geno when that player could be found trading B level prospects and picks or Orpik/Nisky. If he was able to produce the same on RW (and I believe he has played some RW this year) then it would be better, but I still don't like the idea of trading Letang for him.

 

[IcedCapp]

Okay. He said "never say never, but odds are O'Reilly stays put unless the Avs are blown away"

Is it my understanding that you do not believe putting a player of Letang's caliber and position on the market to be "blowing away"?

 

[Waffle Fries]

Is it my understanding that you do not believe putting a player of Letang's caliber and position on the market to be "blowing away"?

I do. But I don't think ROR is fair value for Letang 1 for 1. We'd be overpaying. I'd want more added. If Roy values O'Reilly as much as Lebrun makes it seen, Roy wouldn't be thrilled with adding anything because he wants the overpayment.

 

[mpp9]

Here's my argument against the Letang enthusiasts. I've pointed them out before, but I'll do it again because this is as appropriate a thread as there is to do so. I'm also going to ask for a little statistical help at the end.

Letang as a PP QB.

I could almost stomach next year's salary if he was even close to Gonch-like on the PP. He isn't, and chances are he never will be. One thing I've seen with defensemen is that while it often takes until their late 20's early 30's to "get it", that's usually on the defensive side of things.

Being a QB on the PP however is a completely different animal. You either have it almost immediately or you don't. It's not something you suddenly "get" after a few seasons, and for the sake of argument say it was. What have we seen from this guy over the last few years to say that improved in that area? Same erratic shot, same erratic decision making, and he STILL can't get it into anyone's wheelhouse for a one time shot on a consistent enough basis.

Letang as a shutdown D-man

He isn't that either. The coaching staff has chosen to have two guys in their 30's to go up against the opposing team's best players. It was the same thing last year.

Letang as a mentor

Well, that idea went out the window when they signed Scuderi, partly to be a babysitter for a player that, while only 26 years old, is an NHL veteran of 6 years. The organization as a whole doesn't see him as any sort of leader.

Decision making/Hockey IQ

I mean...

Maturity

While the playoff meltdowns have been a team concept, he's the poster boy for the group. The more things start to go wrong, the more he plays like an over-caffeinated, out of control teenager. It actually gets worse as his ice time increases.

So what do we have then? A really great skater on the back end that can join the rush and produces points. However, you will never convince me that he's integral for this team's offense. I don't care if he's a PPG player, I don't see the offense "flowing" through him the way it does with a Karlsson or Subban (flawed as they are as well) His point totals are more a byproduct of WHO he passes the puck up to, and I'd love nothing more than to see him be the same player he is now with say, the Habs, and see what kind of point totals he picks up when he's not passing to guys like Malkin and Crosby.

With the right trade, you solve almost every single flaw this team has by moving Letang. Package him with 1 or 2 other guys? The windfall could be staggering. This is all moot of course, because alas, Shero will NEVER do it. This organization seems to be more concerned with looking good than winning championships.


Just a question for guys who are good at looking these stats up. I simply go by what I see and study. I want the following:

Team's GPG with Letang in the lineup vs. out
Team's GAA with Letang in the lineup vs. out
Team's PP% with Letang in the lineup vs. out
Letang's PPG avg. when Sid AND/or Geno are out

And the most important one:
What Sid and Geno's PPG avg. is without Letang in the lineup. Do THEIR point totals suffer when he's out?

Problem with asking for those stats is that many times Letang's been out, so has many of our other top end players. That will skew the GPG numbers.

But it's pretty obvious our PP and GAA have been garbage since Letang's return.

 

[IcedCapp]

I do. But I don't think ROR is fair value for Letang 1 for 1. We'd be overpaying. I'd want more added. If Roy values O'Reilly as much as Lebrun makes it seen, Roy wouldn't be thrilled with adding anything because he wants the overpayment.

I don't know - and I don't want to ask Avs fans because I've read enough of their posts to know the conversation would just case me to gauge my eyes out with a rusty spoon - if they could afford to give up two roster forwards.

If they could, something like: Letang + X (Glass?) for ROR and McGinn

Not even sure it works via the cap.

Anyhow, this is where the polarized nature of the Penguins forwards bites us in the ass: all of our forwards are either too good or too ****** to really even this trade out. Maybe a pick, I dunno.

 

[mpp9]

I do. But I don't think ROR is fair value for Letang 1 for 1. We'd be overpaying. I'd want more added. If Roy values O'Reilly as much as Lebrun makes it seen, Roy wouldn't be thrilled with adding anything because he wants the overpayment.

The whole point of this discussion is Letang being moved for ROR. So ROR not being available has no basis since you just agreed that Letang being made available more than likely makes ROR available in Roy's eyes.

ROR would complement our top 6 forwards perfectly. He's elite defensively. Probably top 5 in the league in terms of his stickwork in takeaways. That springs Sid and Geno on the counterattack. Which is what our system seems to be based on nowadays. Especially with Jacques Martin's influence.

He's young, still growing offensively, has shown he can play all three forward positions and works as hard as anyone in the league on and off the ice.

You're severely undervaluing the guy. I'd move Letang for him in a second.

 

[mpp9]

I don't know - and I don't want to ask Avs fans because I've read enough of their posts to know the conversation would just case me to gauge my eyes out with a rusty spoon - if they could afford to give up two roster forwards.

If they could, something like: Letang + X (Glass?) for ROR and McGinn

Not even sure it works via the cap.

Anyhow, this is where the polarized nature of the Penguins forwards bites us in the ass: all of our forwards are either too good or too ****** to really even this trade out. Maybe a pick, I dunno.

I'd be just fine with ROR and another D-man to satisfy Shero's hoarding tendencies.

Use our remaining cap space from Dupes' LTIR to pick up a bottom six guy.

 

[IcedCapp]

I'd be just fine with ROR and another D-man to satisfy Shero's hoarding tendencies.

Use our remaining cap space from Dupes' LTIR to pick up a bottom six guy.

we already have a logjam at D and I'd like to see Despres play in the NHL at some point =/

 

[mpp9]

we already have a logjam at D and I'd like to see Despres play in the NHL at some point =/

We all would. But do you honestly see Shero trading Letang and not somehow finding a way to get a D-man back?

He's a hoarder man.

Plus I doubt the Avs can afford to move both McGinn+ROR unless they have another deal in the works. They don't have a ton of depth at forward.

 

[Waffle Fries]

I don't know - and I don't want to ask Avs fans because I've read enough of their posts to know the conversation would just case me to gauge my eyes out with a rusty spoon - if they could afford to give up two roster forwards.

If they could, something like: Letang + X (Glass?) for ROR and McGinn

Not even sure it works via the cap.

Anyhow, this is where the polarized nature of the Penguins forwards bites us in the ass: all of our forwards are either too good or too ****** to really even this trade out. Maybe a pick, I dunno.

I don't know if they could move two roster forwards. If we moved another roster player, I think it would work with the cap. I still don't know if I would do that deal. I'd rather trade Nisky/Orpik/B Prospects/Picks for a couple of tweeners than move Letang. I firmly believe if we traded Letang we'd regret it.

The whole point of this discussion is Letang being moved for ROR. So ROR not being available has no basis since you just agreed that Letang being made available more than likely makes ROR available in Roy's eyes.

ROR would complement our top 6 forwards perfectly. He's elite defensively. Probably top 5 in the league in terms of his stickwork in takeaways. That springs Sid and Geno on the counterattack. Which is what our system seems to be based on nowadays. Especially with Jacques Martin's influence.

He's young, still growing offensively, has shown he can play all three forward positions and works as hard as anyone in the league on and off the ice.

You're severely undervaluing the guy. I'd move Letang for him in a second.

I'm not saying that ROR isn't a good player. He is. But Kris Letang is a top 10 defensemen in this league regardless of his play this year. Maybe I'm undervaluing ROR, but I really think you're undervaluing Letang.

 

[IcedCapp]

I don't know if they could move two roster forwards. If we moved another roster player, I think it would work with the cap. I still don't know if I would do that deal. I'd rather trade Nisky/Orpik/B Prospects/Picks for a couple of tweeners than move Letang. I firmly believe if we traded Letang we'd regret it.

I'm fine with your plan. I'm not advocating it or saying we shouldn't do it. I see the argument for both sides. I do believe they need to move someone from the D, and not just because I want to see "younger players play" but because I believe it's what's best for the team, to redistribute the wealth. If that's Letang, make it a good one. If it's Nisky/Orpik, okay. Whatever.

 

[billybudd]

Has Letang lost his temper once this year? I certainly remember him exploding against the Flyers, but this year, I do not recall him freaking out. Like, at all. No scrums, no chasing someone down to slash them, nothing.

Crosby and Malkin have a couple times each, but, unless I'm wrong, Kris Letang hasn't even threatened to flip out at all this year.

 

[mpp9]

I don't know if they could move two roster forwards. If we moved another roster player, I think it would work with the cap. I still don't know if I would do that deal. I'd rather trade Nisky/Orpik/B Prospects/Picks for a couple of tweeners than move Letang. I firmly believe if we traded Letang we'd regret it.



I'm not saying that ROR isn't a good player. He is. But Kris Letang is a top 10 defensemen in this league regardless of his play this year. Maybe I'm undervaluing ROR, but I really think you're undervaluing Letang.

We'd certainly get another significant asset/s back for Letang. Unfortunately, it'd probably be a D-man and a future with how Ray operates. I'm not saying ROR is worth more than Letang.

But to our team moving forward, I'd take ROR over Letang 10 times out of 10.

It'd take a player Shero loves to move Letang. I think ROR is his wet dream.

Just as Letang is Roy' considering their dire need on defense, his status as an elite offensive D and the french connection.

 

[redsono93]

What would it take to get both Eberle and Justin Schultz? I love DP he's our future for sure but Schultz is young and can step in now. Can Shultz be the PPQ we've needed? I'm just curious what you guys think. Thanks

 

[Waffle Fries]

I'm fine with your plan. I'm not advocating it or saying we shouldn't do it. I see the argument for both sides. I do believe they need to move someone from the D, and not just because I want to see "younger players play" but because I believe it's what's best for the team, to redistribute the wealth. If that's Letang, make it a good one. If it's Nisky/Orpik, okay. Whatever.

I don't disagree.

We'd certainly get another significant asset/s back for Letang. Unfortunately, it'd probably be a D-man and a future with how Ray operates. I'm not saying ROR is worth more than Letang.

But to our team moving forward, I'd take ROR over Letang 10 times out of 10.

It'd take a player Shero loves to move Letang. I think ROR is his wet dream.

Just as Letang is Roy' considering their dire need on defense, his status as an elite offensive D and the french connection.

You say this all the time, but I still don't see where you're basing it from. You like ROR and think he's a good fit for this team, but that doesn't mean that Shero does. There are a lot of reasons Shero might be interested in ROR, but there's also a lot of reasons Shero could be weary of him.

I would like to think that Shero likes my favorite wingers around the league and would be interested in them, but I don't know if he does or not.

 

[Shady Machine]

I'm fine with your plan. I'm not advocating it or saying we shouldn't do it. I see the argument for both sides. I do believe they need to move someone from the D, and not just because I want to see "younger players play" but because I believe it's what's best for the team, to redistribute the wealth. If that's Letang, make it a good one. If it's Nisky/Orpik, okay. Whatever.

Yeah I mean, if we can get a top 9 forward signed past this season for Niskanen or Orpik, then let's trade them first. I just don't know how realistic that is and we all know how realistic it is that Ray trades a veteran UFA dman. I guess since I'm operating on the knowledge that Ray isn't likely to move a pending UFA defender, I seem to think it's more likely that Letang is moved in a "hockey trade" to once and for all solve the winger problem. I'm likely crazy.

 

[WayneSid9987]

What would it take to get both Eberle and Justin Schultz? I love DP he's our future for sure but Schultz is young and can step in now. Can Shultz be the PPQ we've needed? I'm just curious what you guys think. Thanks

I'd say who cares cuz we already have Niskanen/Martin/Maata.
Would rather get winger/bottom 6 depth then to add another guy to the log jam.

 

[redsono93]

I'd say who cares cuz we already have Niskanen/Martin/Maata.
Would rather get winger/bottom 6 depth then to add another guy to the log jam.

Good point so Eberle and who else do bottom 6?

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

As I see it, Shero has a few options.

Option 1: Do nothing
Keep Letang. Let Nisky walk at the end of the season. Re-sign RFA Des.

Option 2: Trade Tang for Sid's Neal (Eberle, Kane, Wheeler, ROR)
Re-sign Nisky for ~4M. Replace Tang with Des.

Option 3: Trade Nisky for Geno's Kunitz (Kulemin, McGinn)
Keep Tang. Replace Nisky with Des.

Option 4: Trade Des for rental or prospect (Smyth, Chiasson)
Keep tang. Let Nisky walk at the end of the year.


I know what option I'd prefer.