Rob Sense
Registered User
- Apr 26, 2015
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Player Discussion Kirby Dach: Welcome to Montreal part 2
- Thread starter MarkovsKnee
- Start date
- Jun 24, 2012
- 85,226
- 156,096
Dach's improved play was definitely noticeable in January. It also coincided with a surge in Faceoff Percentage wins since the start of the season:
January was the month when Dach took the highest number of faceoffs, namely 88. He posted his best FO% this season during this past month, with a success ratio of 48.9%. What's also of note is that January was also the month where he took the most faceoffs (clearly had less chances in past months on account of spending most of his playing time as a winger), compared to prior months, which makes his faceoff win ratio even more telling, albeit the limited sample size.
The foregoing could connote that Dach is playing with greater confidence. Several of us have noticed that he seems much more aggressive in the offensive zone, more physical and is much more likely to engage in physical altercations and not back down.
You can also see rising TOI numbers since the start of the season and for January he notched an average of 20:03 per game. Curious to find out how he progresses from these recent results over the rest of the season.
January was the month when Dach took the highest number of faceoffs, namely 88. He posted his best FO% this season during this past month, with a success ratio of 48.9%. What's also of note is that January was also the month where he took the most faceoffs (clearly had less chances in past months on account of spending most of his playing time as a winger), compared to prior months, which makes his faceoff win ratio even more telling, albeit the limited sample size.
The foregoing could connote that Dach is playing with greater confidence. Several of us have noticed that he seems much more aggressive in the offensive zone, more physical and is much more likely to engage in physical altercations and not back down.
You can also see rising TOI numbers since the start of the season and for January he notched an average of 20:03 per game. Curious to find out how he progresses from these recent results over the rest of the season.
Redux91
I do Three bullets.
What a play he made for that 6th goal man, just incredible
he's gonna be a scary player for us moving forward, couldn't be happier to have him, I can barely contain my excitement with him to be quite honest lol
I keep thinking of how many problems his ceiling fixes for us as a team should he make it there
he's gonna be a scary player for us moving forward, couldn't be happier to have him, I can barely contain my excitement with him to be quite honest lol
I keep thinking of how many problems his ceiling fixes for us as a team should he make it there
Every game he's creating about 3-4 scoring chances and is getting about 3-4 scoring chances. Such a great sign
SlafySZN
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- May 21, 2022
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CHwest
Talent sets the floor, character sets the ceiling.
- May 24, 2011
- 3,765
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He is becoming my favorite. Very excited for him, he is grabbing his new lease on life and running with it.
red devil
Registered User
- Oct 14, 2004
- 12,840
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Kane didn't like how the Hawks developed Dach and isn't surprised he is starting to succeed.
26Mats
Registered User
- Jun 23, 2018
- 33,348
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I'm happy with Dach.
Too bad we didn't also loot Chicago for Debrincat, Strome, and Kubalik. Strome and Kubalik were available for literally nothing.
Interesting to read current NHLers mentioning young players being rushed affecting their development while some people don't seem to believe it's possible.
Toene
Y'en aura pas de facile
- Nov 17, 2014
- 5,203
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On top of creating chances and getting chances, his work to screen the goalie in front of the crease has lead to numerous goals. He's using his size to his advantage.
Meh…NHL players say a lot of things, some repeat the old adage that the NHL is not a developmental league.
And we know that’s a load of crap.
“Rushed” is a relative term really.
GrandBison
Registered User
- Jul 1, 2019
- 2,082
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It was affecting his play in Chicago, but "development" could change over time and situation and Dach is good example of that.
No one was saying he was rushed his first year
No one was saying he was rushed after he was one of their best players in the playoffs as a rookie.
He then hurt his wrist during WJC…and it took him awhile to recover.
That’s when people started talking about him being “rushed”.
Jaynki
Registered User
- Feb 3, 2014
- 5,870
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I believe Dach has the potential to rise to major stardom.
If Dach hit is absolute ceiling this trade will have turned our franchise around.
I believe a team need at least 3 star player supported by 4-5 A-tier player to be a perennial stanley cup challenger, disregard the position. (Chicago, Boston, TB, Colorado, Washington are all built like that).
I think only Caufield is a top tier player for us. Dach could be one and i think Hutson has the potential to reach this tier.
I think Slafkovksy (and the player drafted in 2022) are of that A-tier caliber. But if Dach, Hutson hit their high potential, like Caufield. Supported by Suzuki, Guhle, Slafkovsky... We won't be far from having a strong contending team for a decade. We will need 2-3 prospects out of those we already have and our 2023 picks to reach that A-tier and we will be in big business. If we win the lottery even the 2OV (both fantilli and bedard are star-tier) than i think it will be time to spend on strong A-tier player like Dubois.
If Dach hit is absolute ceiling this trade will have turned our franchise around.
I believe a team need at least 3 star player supported by 4-5 A-tier player to be a perennial stanley cup challenger, disregard the position. (Chicago, Boston, TB, Colorado, Washington are all built like that).
I think only Caufield is a top tier player for us. Dach could be one and i think Hutson has the potential to reach this tier.
I think Slafkovksy (and the player drafted in 2022) are of that A-tier caliber. But if Dach, Hutson hit their high potential, like Caufield. Supported by Suzuki, Guhle, Slafkovsky... We won't be far from having a strong contending team for a decade. We will need 2-3 prospects out of those we already have and our 2023 picks to reach that A-tier and we will be in big business. If we win the lottery even the 2OV (both fantilli and bedard are star-tier) than i think it will be time to spend on strong A-tier player like Dubois.
Sorinth
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- Jan 18, 2013
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Well said, the whole rushed argument is so often nonsensical. If a player comes in as a rookie and does extremely well then they weren't rushed. If they fail to live up to hype then it's something else outside of being "rushed".
I just find that it’s totally normal for a 18-19-20-21 year old to struggle in the NHL.
That in itself, IMO, is not proof that a player was rushed.
Most players need 150-200 NHL games to figure things out, which is exactly what happened with Kirby Dach.
If Dach had spent the last 3 years back in the CHL and then AHL, instead of playing in the NHL…and say this current season was his rookie season.
Everyone would be saying how he was developed properly…but would he be the same player today?
Who knows
Sorinth
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- Jan 18, 2013
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Looking at his linemates then January 14th was the game Dach moved to center. He started the game as winger alongside Suzuki/Caufield and then a little over halfway into the 2nd he was moved to center between Dadonov and Armia. He's then been center for the next 10 games and has 9 points, another note is he's had 12 hits in those 10 games at center which is higher then his average this season. Although the inconsistency of the hits stat means we can't put too much faith in those numbers it matches the eye test for me.
Mrb1p
PRICERSTOPDAPUCK
Most players do not need 150-200 games to figure things out, they need less than 100 on average.
What you refer to is players that were rushed.
Just looking at the Habs 22-23 roster:
Suzuki didn't need more than 100 games.
Caufield didn't need more than 100 games.
Hoffman didn't need more than 100 games.
Anderson didn't need more than 100 games.
Dvorak didn't need more than 100 games.
Dadonov didn't need more than 100 games.
Monahan didn't need more than 100 games.
Gallagher didn't need more than 100 games.
Kudo Shinichi
Registered User
- Apr 20, 2012
- 21,211
- 28,161
There are different reasons why a player might end up busting/disappointing after playing in the NHL as a teenager.
One of them is that it's a lot harder to develop skills when you're in the nhl versus a lower league. Your minutes will be a lot lower, the competition will be a lot stronger, and you simply won't have the puck as much.
Another reason is that confidence + the mental side of the game is pretty important and it's easy to lose it when you're a teenager playing in the nhl and going through struggles. The mental part of the game is often what separates star players to average, but skilled players (ex: Drouin, Galchenyuk, etc.).
A 20-year-old will handle adversity better than an 18-year-old.
Dach lost his confidence playing with the hawks, and the habs were able to have him regain it and more. This season alone, we saw a major difference in his confidence and play with the puck between the start of the season and now. Producing points playing with Suzuki and Caufield who were red-hot helped out a lot with his confidence.
Interestingly I had recently been looking at top NHL centers production through their first 200 GP and thought I could add some colour to the recent conversation without opining on if Dach was rushed or not.
I've been trying to learn a bit more about statistics in sports and in doing so I recently read about an assignment someone had done as part of a university course. Apparently, this person sat down and tried to determine at which point an NHL player is most likely to have a breakout, as defined as an increase in production by 25%. That person used a database of historical produciton and determined a break-out is most likely to occur in the players 4th season. They later went back and tried to accomodate for things like missed time or half seasons and determined a breakout is most likely to start around 200 GP. I don't have the guys original data or understand any other limitations in the analysis that might be exist, but for all intents and purposes I'll just assume that the analysis was done correctly and the conclusion is reasonable.
Kirby Dach recently passed 200 GP. I wanted to see how his production stacks up vs. the first ~200GP of the leagues top-32 centers in terms of production. Many centers in the 20-32 range had a production rate between 0.4-0.66 ppg through their first ~200 games. Kirby Dach is on the lower end of that range at about ~0.45 ppg right now (Interestingly, Suzuki was at about ~0.68 ppg in his first 200 games). The average age of the top-32 centerman is 27 years old.
So what does this all mean? Well you can't predict the future, and there is definitely a flaw in thinking you can use historical production as a definitive predictor for future success. However, in terms of Dach, there's reason to be optimistic that what is happening is potentially the beginning of Kirby Dach's breakout. If this produciton continues for the rest of the year and is followed by a further increase in production next year, then I'd be pretty optimistic about him becoming a top-line centerman in the NHL by around 27.
Is this an outlandish prediction/hot take? I don't necessarily think so. As it stands right now in terms of ppg he's already at a lower end 2nd line center rate (currently 60th in the NHL for centers in terms of ppg). Only a couple of centers ahead of him in ppg this season are younger than him. So if you think of things in terms of cohorts, where the top-line centers of today at an average age of ~27 age out in a few years and are backfilled by the younger, productive centers of today, then I think this also suggests Dach is trending well towards being one of the top centers in the NHL when the current young crop reaches career maturity.
I've been trying to learn a bit more about statistics in sports and in doing so I recently read about an assignment someone had done as part of a university course. Apparently, this person sat down and tried to determine at which point an NHL player is most likely to have a breakout, as defined as an increase in production by 25%. That person used a database of historical produciton and determined a break-out is most likely to occur in the players 4th season. They later went back and tried to accomodate for things like missed time or half seasons and determined a breakout is most likely to start around 200 GP. I don't have the guys original data or understand any other limitations in the analysis that might be exist, but for all intents and purposes I'll just assume that the analysis was done correctly and the conclusion is reasonable.
Kirby Dach recently passed 200 GP. I wanted to see how his production stacks up vs. the first ~200GP of the leagues top-32 centers in terms of production. Many centers in the 20-32 range had a production rate between 0.4-0.66 ppg through their first ~200 games. Kirby Dach is on the lower end of that range at about ~0.45 ppg right now (Interestingly, Suzuki was at about ~0.68 ppg in his first 200 games). The average age of the top-32 centerman is 27 years old.
So what does this all mean? Well you can't predict the future, and there is definitely a flaw in thinking you can use historical production as a definitive predictor for future success. However, in terms of Dach, there's reason to be optimistic that what is happening is potentially the beginning of Kirby Dach's breakout. If this produciton continues for the rest of the year and is followed by a further increase in production next year, then I'd be pretty optimistic about him becoming a top-line centerman in the NHL by around 27.
Is this an outlandish prediction/hot take? I don't necessarily think so. As it stands right now in terms of ppg he's already at a lower end 2nd line center rate (currently 60th in the NHL for centers in terms of ppg). Only a couple of centers ahead of him in ppg this season are younger than him. So if you think of things in terms of cohorts, where the top-line centers of today at an average age of ~27 age out in a few years and are backfilled by the younger, productive centers of today, then I think this also suggests Dach is trending well towards being one of the top centers in the NHL when the current young crop reaches career maturity.
LaP
Registered User
Anderson and Dvorak are still trying to figure things out.
Mrb1p
PRICERSTOPDAPUCK
Yeah nah….don’t agree here but whatever, whether that’s 100 or 150 or 200.
The point is most players crawl before they walk and then walk before they run.
Fans expect them to run right away and when they don’t, it means they were rushed.
No, it’s just typical adjustment to the NHL.
This is just your opinion, which is fine, but I bet if you asked each one of those players how long it took until things started clicking for them, they’d say it took more than 100 games.
