Kingston Frontenacs 2024-25 Season Thread, Part I

[OMG67]

That's always been the issue with teams from the East. They haven't had a winning record against the West in over 25 years (8 games under .500 already this year), so sometimes you don't really know what the top teams can do against good competition until the OHL finals. The West is always 5-6 deep with strong contenders compared to 1-2 in the East, so they are a bit more battle tested and a known quantity.

No. Kingston hasn’t played those teams yet. History is in the past. It doesn’t affect this year.

The point remains that Kingston is +36 vs bottom feeders and -14 vs top 4 teams. If Kingston cannot improve on those stats, they likely need more than a couple depth pieces.

 

[OMG67]

With an equally easy SOS Kingston and Oshawa are separated by a point for the 2-3 seeds, I think. The only question should be what does this team need to be better and secure the #2 or #1 seed.

Oshawa has 10 games played vs top of conference vs Kingston’s 7. They have played the bottom of the Conference 9 times vs Kingston’s 12. I don’t see how you can compare Strength of Schedule. That is clearly a 3 game swing in each direction. That is probably a 4 point difference on SOS alone. That doesn’t even factor in the number of games Oshawa played short vs Kingston. Ritchie with an extended stay in the NHL alone is a big factor.

 

[Fischhaber]

No. Kingston hasn’t played those teams yet. History is in the past. It doesn’t affect this year.

The point remains that Kingston is +36 vs bottom feeders and -14 vs top 4 teams. If Kingston cannot improve on those stats, they likely need more than a couple depth pieces.

It does affect this year because the same disparity still exists. Only 3 other teams in the East have won more than half of their games. There are 6 in the West.

Kingston is also in the league's weakest division, by far, in terms of wins. I haven't done an analysis or anything, but good teams in weak divisions and weak conferences always have an easy schedule. That goes for any sport. They just aren't going to play many good teams this year.

Just consider a realistic top 8 teams (in my opinion) that aren't Kingston (Barrie, Oshawa, London, Kitchener, Windsor, Erie, Soo, Niagara)

Kingston plays them 25 times. Owen Sound plays them 36 times. It's a huge difference.

 

[OMG67]

It does affect this year because the same disparity still exists. Only 3 other teams in the East have won more than half of their games. There are 6 in the West.

Kingston is also in the league's weakest division, by far, in terms of wins. I haven't done an analysis or anything, but good teams in weak divisions and weak conferences always have an easy schedule. That goes for any sport. They just aren't going to play many good teams this year.

Just consider a realistic top 8 teams (in my opinion) that aren't Kingston (Barrie, Oshawa, London, Kitchener, Windsor, Erie, Soo, Niagara)

Kingston plays them 25 times. Owen Sound plays them 36 times. It's a huge difference.

Yes, but that’s only after the season is complete. I am referencing CURRENT strength of schedule. You are referencing final standings etc of seasons in the past. You cannot make a determination at the 20 game mark that the West is stronger than the East or vice versa. You can, however, compare strength of schedule for teams in the same conference to date.

And, those teams you referenced aren’t likely the top 8 in the league when the dust settles. You are factoring future games without knowing those are the top teams. We do know what teams are the top teams to date. However, are they the top teams based on strength of schedule?

 

[leafs4life94]

At this point I'm just happy Kingston is beating the teams they should. The other thing, and I'm not saying how much it'll trend the other way, is that of those games against the "top teams", they've only lost 2 by more than one goal (not including ENGs like the Niagara/Ottawa games) - which are the two games against Oshawa, and I don't think it's a stretch to say the Gens are a better (definitely higher top-end) team than Kingston.

If there's some regression closer to even 30/70 and Kingston wins a handful of those games down the stretch, this is a totally different conversation.

As has been said, it's too early to truly say but if Kingston keeps it tight against top teams, what's to say a big addition wouldn't put them over the top and change some L's to W's.

 

[dirty12]

Oshawa has 10 games played vs top of conference vs Kingston’s 7. They have played the bottom of the Conference 9 times vs Kingston’s 12. I don’t see how you can compare Strength of Schedule. That is clearly a 3 game swing in each direction. That is probably a 4 point difference on SOS alone. That doesn’t even factor in the number of games Oshawa played short vs Kingston. Ritchie with an extended stay in the NHL alone is a big factor.

Oshawa has 10 games played vs top of conference vs Kingston’s 7. They have played the bottom of the Conference 9 times vs Kingston’s 12. I don’t see how you can compare Strength of Schedule. That is clearly a 3 game swing in each direction. That is probably a 4 point difference on SOS alone. That doesn’t even factor in the number of games Oshawa played short vs Kingston. Ritchie with an extended stay in the NHL alone is a big factor.

Just to clarify; Niagara is a top of conference team, and Brampton is a bottom of conference team?
I think Barrie and London are top of conference teams; Petes bottom of the league; and on any given day game after night game on the road with the BUG in net, Guelph can beat Erie.
As far as cake-walk schedules go, the gens have played 1/3 of their games vs teams currently <0.400.

 

[frontsfan67]

At this point I'm just happy Kingston is beating the teams they should. The other thing, and I'm not saying how much it'll trend the other way, is that of those games against the "top teams", they've only lost 2 by more than one goal (not including ENGs like the Niagara/Ottawa games) - which are the two games against Oshawa, and I don't think it's a stretch to say the Gens are a better (definitely higher top-end) team than Kingston.

If there's some regression closer to even 30/70 and Kingston wins a handful of those games down the stretch, this is a totally different conversation.

As has been said, it's too early to truly say but if Kingston keeps it tight against top teams, what's to say a big addition wouldn't put them over the top and change some L's to W's.

Also gotta remember this team lost 2 of its core pieces(Thibodeau, frasca) that would be on the team. Gotta remember they could flip those pieces for 2 middle 6 forwards or a middle 6 forward and a top 4 d man easily.

 

[OMG67]

Just to clarify; Niagara is a top of conference team, and Brampton is a bottom of conference team?
I think Barrie and London are top of conference teams; Petes bottom of the league; and on any given day game after night game on the road with the BUG in net, Guelph can beat Erie.
As far as cake-walk schedules go, the gens have played 1/3 of their games vs teams currently <0.400.

As of right now? Yes. We are talking about how they have competed against teams that have current success vs those that haven’t.

You and I both know that Brampton won’t stay there but they sure haven’t proven they are top 3 like we assumed to start the season.

I think we also both agree that the measuring stick, no matter what, seems to be Barrie. We shall see what Oshawa does but Barrie still is the best team IMO.

All of that is inconsequential. I was replying based on your comment that they are currently in first place with a wide margin for GA-GF. My issue with that is the strength of schedule supplying Kingston more opportunity to take advantage of weaker teams which helps to explain the margin and current record.

Kingston has been good but I haven’t seen them great. So, the question is, “What do they need?” I don’t think the schedule has afforded Kingston an opportunity to truly uncover that other than the obvious need for a D-Man, preferably top pairing if possible. My Spidey Senses tell me they need a true #1 Centre if they want to really push for a Championship. I’m not sure it is required but the League has a few of them on the top teams that can control games. It would be better for Kingston to snag one somewhere, somehow but the D-Man is probably still more important.

I think their disposable asset poor will only allow for second tier acquisitions though. They may be handcuffed into using Heyes spot to get an elite OA. That will likely only cost picks.

We shall see how the market shakes down and what players end up signing as we come out of the Christmas holidays. I think that is when we will see all the signings. Players will come home for the holiday break and switch over.

 

[dirty12]

As of right now? Yes. We are talking about how they have competed against teams that have current success vs those that haven’t.

You and I both know that Brampton won’t stay there but they sure haven’t proven they are top 3 like we assumed to start the season.

I think we also both agree that the measuring stick, no matter what, seems to be Barrie. We shall see what Oshawa does but Barrie still is the best team IMO.

All of that is inconsequential. I was replying based on your comment that they are currently in first place with a wide margin for GA-GF. My issue with that is the strength of schedule supplying Kingston more opportunity to take advantage of weaker teams which helps to explain the margin and current record.

Kingston has been good but I haven’t seen them great. So, the question is, “What do they need?” I don’t think the schedule has afforded Kingston an opportunity to truly uncover that other than the obvious need for a D-Man, preferably top pairing if possible. My Spidey Senses tell me they need a true #1 Centre if they want to really push for a Championship. I’m not sure it is required but the League has a few of them on the top teams that can control games. It would be better for Kingston to snag one somewhere, somehow but the D-Man is probably still more important.

I think their disposable asset poor will only allow for second tier acquisitions though. They may be handcuffed into using Heyes spot to get an elite OA. That will likely only cost picks.

We shall see how the market shakes down and what players end up signing as we come out of the Christmas holidays. I think that is when we will see all the signings. Players will come home for the holiday break and switch over.

You may have me mixed up with another. I said Kingston is near the top in differential, PK, PP. You brought up SOS, so lump in the gens ve Petes (4), Sting (2), Storm, Firebirds to say the top of the east division has had a cake-walk schedule.

 

[OMG67]

You may have me mixed up with another. I said Kingston is near the top in differential, PK, PP. You brought up SOS, so lump in the gens ve Petes (4), Sting (2), Storm, Firebirds to say the top of the east division has had a cake-walk schedule.

Yes. I was referring to goal differential etc but strength of schedule favours the Fronts to date which skews the stats in their favour.

I already provided the SOS for Oshawa vs Kingston and it is clear there is a big difference. Kingston has had 12 powderpuff games. Oshawa only 9. That differential of three games coincides with top of Conference teams as well. Oshawa with 10 vs top of Conference vs only 7 for Kingston.

So, Oshawa has played the top teams as much as they have played the bottom teams. Kingston has played 5 more games vs bottom teams vs top teams. That is a BIG difference. I don’t even know why you are arguing about it. That is clearer than clear.

Then when you look at how poorly Kingston has fared against the top teams, it is even more difficult to suggest they are prepared and only need a few small changes. And, that was the basis of your original point. You stated that Kingston is already tops in Goal Differential as well as PK and PP so they likely only need 2nd tier players. What I am saying is if you dig a bit deeper and look more closely at how they got those stats, you would notice their strength of schedule skews their stats. AND it has in a big way. +36 vs bottom teams in goal differential and -14 vs top teams.

My overall point is Kingston needs to play more and play better vs the top teams, sustain those differentials and special teams numbers before we can truly suggest they only need to tinker a bit.

 

[dirty12]

Yes. I was referring to goal differential etc but strength of schedule favours the Fronts to date which skews the stats in their favour.

I already provided the SOS for Oshawa vs Kingston and it is clear there is a big difference. Kingston has had 12 powderpuff games. Oshawa only 9. That differential of three games coincides with top of Conference teams as well. Oshawa with 10 vs top of Conference vs only 7 for Kingston.

So, Oshawa has played the top teams as much as they have played the bottom teams. Kingston has played 5 more games vs bottom teams vs top teams. That is a BIG difference. I don’t even know why you are arguing about it. That is clearer than clear.

Then when you look at how poorly Kingston has fared against the top teams, it is even more difficult to suggest they are prepared and only need a few small changes. And, that was the basis of your original point. You stated that Kingston is already tops in Goal Differential as well as PK and PP so they likely only need 2nd tier players. What I am saying is if you dig a bit deeper and look more closely at how they got those stats, you would notice their strength of schedule skews their stats. AND it has in a big way. +36 vs bottom teams in goal differential and -14 vs top teams.

My overall point is Kingston needs to play more and play better vs the top teams, sustain those differentials and special teams numbers before we can truly suggest they only need to tinker a bit.

I did not suggest Kingston only needed to tinker either. I said identify needs and available players, 5 picks each on two good hockey players probably helps a team that can already score quite a bit more than 10 picks on an offence only forward or a third top pairing LD.

 

[Donnie740]

Kingston has lost three out of four games against Oshawa this year - - two were lopsided blowouts and one was without Sennecke, Ritchie, Danford and Barlow.

If you want to discard the actual results and take a more holistic comparison of rosters, Kingston can’t come close to matching the top end talent of Oshawa or even Barrie and definitely not London.

The smartest approach for Kingston is to build for a championship next year. They’ll almost assuredly have three very good OAs. More importantly, Oshawa and Barrie will be losing a ton of star players. And to top
It off, Oshawa and Barrie will be completely wiped out of draft picks next year.

 

[OMG67]

Kingston has lost three out of four games against Oshawa this year - - two were lopsided blowouts and one was without Sennecke, Ritchie, Danford and Barlow.

If you want to discard the actual results and take a more holistic comparison of rosters, Kingston can’t come close to matching the top end talent of Oshawa or even Barrie and definitely not London.

The smartest approach for Kingston is to build for a championship next year. They’ll almost assuredly have three very good OAs. More importantly, Oshawa and Barrie will be losing a ton of star players. And to top
It off, Oshawa and Barrie will be completely wiped out of draft picks next year.

Kingston doesn’t have the luxury of picking their year. The question is how hard to go at it this year.

 

[beastintheeast]

Kingston doesn’t have the luxury of picking their year. The question is how hard to go at it this year.

We will get a better idea of what Kingston has and does not have in the first 2 weeks of December. They asre going to be playing all the teams they need to compete with Osh Bar. kitch Brantford and a couple of what should be easy games Guelph Sarnia

Then they will have a look

As for Frasca and Thibodeau, they really do not matter in that those trades are done; they got picks, and it will depend on which teams are interested in a picks deal.

If you are trading forwards, you will have to trade players who will make the team weaker, as the only players others might be interested in are all-stars.

Personally, I still think this should be a minor change to try to find a 19-year-old that other teams may not want and are willing to take a flier on Vellaris or some of your weaker players and picks. Next year your leader on defence will be either Uen or McGowan Up front you look good

In nets we will have to see what Betts does with Vaccari who has shown he cannot handle the workload on his own.

 

[Donnie740]

Kingston doesn’t have the luxury of picking their year. The question is how hard to go at it this year.

Why would Kingston not be able to decide between making a championship run next year via this year?

The fact that they traded away Thibodeau and Franca for picks should tell you they’re already made their decision.

 

[OMG67]

Why would Kingston not be able to decide between making a championship run next year via this year?

The fact that they traded away Thibodeau and Franca for picks should tell you they’re already made their decision.

They got rid of problems.

10 2005’s. That is too many graduates. Kingston is going to be awful next year.

They will have McGowan(OA) and Williamson on defence. Hopkins, Battaglia, and Soto(OA) up front. Maybe McNamarra as the 3rd OA or maybe Vaccari(OA) in net? After that? Thin. Thinner than thin. At best, they contend for a playoff spot.

 

[frontsfan67]

Why would Kingston not be able to decide between making a championship run next year via this year?

The fact that they traded away Thibodeau and Franca for picks should tell you they’re already made their decision.

Donnie they were asking out. Thibodeau didn’t like it here I forget why but frasca was real pissed off once we got Jax Dubois last year

 

[frontsfan67]

Anyone got a team line format they can send me? Im bored I’d like to look at next years team

 

[OMG67]

Anyone got a team line format they can send me? Im bored I’d like to look at next years team

No. You really don’t….

 

[Donnie740]

10 2005’s. That is too many graduates. Kingston is going to be awful next year.

Let’s take a deeper look beyond just the number.

Ben Pickell was picked off the scrap heap this year and he won’t be missed in the slightest. A back up goalie like Vaccari is easily replaceable. Little Cal Uens also won’t be a significant loss.

Three of them will be back as OAs - - Soto and McGowan are near certainties to return and they’ll be very good OAs. Uronen still hasn’t been signed yet and I’d say it’s a 50/50 chance that he’s back as the third OA. Failing that, McNamara would be the third OA, but I’d look to move him this year because there’ll be better OAs available to be had next year.

That leaves three significant losses: Burns, Pieniniemi and Miedema.

Here’s the issue for Kingston - - none of those three compare to the level of Cal Ritchie, Easton Cowan, Carson Rehkopf, Denver Barkey or Oliver Bonk. They’re nowhere close to the talent that’s needed from 19yr olds on a championship contender.

This is one of those “difficult” decisions teams have to make between setting themselves up for sustained future success or wasting what they have by trying to make a delusional run.

Very similar to the decision London had to make with Robert Thomas. Obviously none of the aforementioned three are remotely comparable to Thomas, but dealing at least two of them would amount to a similar net return. London made the correct decision and that’s why they’re the CHL’s model franchise.

 

[OMG67]

Let’s take a deeper look beyond just the number.

Ben Pickell was picked off the scrap heap this year and he won’t be missed in the slightest. A back up goalie like Vaccari is easily replaceable. Little Cal Uens also won’t be a significant loss.

Three of them will be back as OAs - - Soto and McGowan are near certainties to return and they’ll be very good OAs. Uronen still hasn’t been signed yet and I’d say it’s a 50/50 chance that he’s back as the third OA. Failing that, McNamara would be the third OA, but I’d look to move him this year because there’ll be better OAs available to be had next year.

That leaves three significant losses: Burns, Pieniniemi and Miedema.

Here’s the issue for Kingston - - none of those three compare to the level of Cal Ritchie, Easton Cowan, Carson Rehkopf, Denver Barkey or Oliver Bonk. They’re nowhere close to the talent that’s needed from 19yr olds on a championship contender.

This is one of those “difficult” decisions teams have to make between setting themselves up for sustained future success or wasting what they have by trying to make a delusional run.

Very similar to the decision London had to make with Robert Thomas. Obviously none of the aforementioned three are remotely comparable to Thomas, but dealing at least two of them would amount to a similar net return. London made the correct decision and that’s why they’re the CHL’s model franchise.

They chose not to move Ludwinski last year. They won’t move anyone out this year. Not a chance.

The Kingston roster isn’t bad. Oshawa was rolling pretty good last year until it wasn’t when injuries snuck into the equation. Never know what happens.

Personally, I agree with you but that is irrelevant. Kingston isn’t going to sell. Best case scenario to protect the future, they remain status quo.

 

[frontsfan67]

Failing that, McNamara would be the third OA, but I’d look to move him this year because there’ll be better OAs available to be had next year.

completely agree that they SHOULD trade him this year but that just becomes another body this year they have to replace. I think if anything he gets moved next off season

Also I don’t like vaccari as a goalie(great guy though) but I don’t know who would backup Betts next year if they got rid of him. Unclear as of right now. If not vaccari then they need to get a 18 year old backup goalie next year to play about 25 games for Betts (assuming Betts is ready)

But IF Betts is not ready then I think they keep vaccari and him and Betts are a 1A 1B tandem and they trade Soto for sure, McGowan probably too as some team next year will want him in the top 4, Soto in the top 6(probably top line next year) and those are the 2 most valuable.

Trade Battaglia for picks that we inevitably burn this year OR if someone is dangling their 16 year old scoop them up and build around the 3 1st round picks and start the youth movement with Uens(or someone to replace him on D), McNamara and vaccari as OA’s

 

[beastintheeast]

Donnie they were asking out. Thibodeau didn’t like it here I forget why but frasca was real pissed off once we got Jax Dubois last year

I think Thibodeau was a daddy issue more than anything. They all thought he was going to be a high draft pick.

 

[beastintheeast]

Possible returning OA

Miedema will the Sabres sign him and send him down or will he be an OA
Pickell Gone
McNamara Needs centers so I think he stays
Soto gone
McGowan stays
Uens Gone
Vaccari Interesting but think he stays if he wants

Batts is a 2006

The problem is that except maybe for Miedema there is no one there that anyone would pay more than picks for

 

[frontsfan67]

Possible returning OA

Miedema will the Sabres sign him and send him down or will he be an OA

Possible he’s back but with the NCAA route available I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go there for a year before ahl at 21

Pickell Gone
McNamara Needs centers so I think he stays
Soto gone
McGowan stays
Uens Gone
Vaccari Interesting but think he stays if he wants

Batts is a 2006

Betts is an 08 and one of the top goalies in Canada in his age group

The problem is that except maybe for Miedema there is no one there that anyone would pay more than picks for

Good point. And oddly enough all Kingston has this year to use as bargaining chips is picks lol. Makes perfect sense to use a crap ton this year and start the tear down next year