Kingston Frontenacs 2023-24 Off-Season Thread (Part 4)

[frontsfan67]

2024 World Junior Summer Showcase: 3 things learned on Day 9 | NHL.com

Hagens, Martone in battle of possible top 2 picks; Canada’s Nadeau could start season with Hurricanes, miss WJC

www.nhl.com

At the bottom it talks about pieniniemi and his upcoming decision and how he has learnt from Kris Letang over the off season.

Was posted August 3rd but I just saw this today haha

 

[ScoutLife4]

2024 World Junior Summer Showcase: 3 things learned on Day 9 | NHL.com

Hagens, Martone in battle of possible top 2 picks; Canada’s Nadeau could start season with Hurricanes, miss WJC

www.nhl.com

At the bottom it talks about pieniniemi and his upcoming decision and how he has learnt from Kris Letang over the off season.

Was posted August 3rd but I just saw this today haha

At the end of the day he’s most likely to take Dubas’s direction and that’s that he will report to Kingston.

 

[leafs4life94]

I'll be curious to see what they do for leadership next year. Last year they had 2 home/away A's and a C.

My guess:

Burns C
Uens A
Guindon A
Hopkins A
Battaglia A

I'm not 100% sure about Hopkins getting one because of his age, and Battaglia never previously struck me as a true leader but he should be able to step up this year.

 

[frontsfan67]

I'll be curious to see what they do for leadership next year. Last year they had 2 home/away A's and a C.

My guess:

Burns C
Uens A
Guindon A
Hopkins A
Battaglia A

I'm not 100% sure about Hopkins getting one because of his age, and Battaglia never previously struck me as a true leader but he should be able to step up this year.

That was my picks I believe except instead of Battaglia I have Soto.

At the end of the day he’s most likely to take Dubas’s direction and that’s that he will report to Kingston.

That would be a wise move- listening to the person who employs you

 

[AGranderson]

You ever watched a hockey game before?

I’m sure way more than you the so called “scout”

 

[ScoutLife4]

I’m sure way more than you the so called “scout”

Would never know it!
Aren’t you the one that thinks Mews loves it in Ottawa? Lol
Loves it like Jack Beck did

 

[AGranderson]

Would never know it!
Aren’t you the one that thinks Mews loves it in Ottawa? Lol
Loves it like Jack Beck did

Go count some more shots on goal “scout”

 

[OMG67]

It is fair to say the value of Guindon is a 2nd and a 3rd based on previous similar trades over the past couple seasons. Was adding a 4th and 5th an overpayment? Yes. Was it a ridiculous or embarrassing overpayment? No.

It is fine to point out that the cost was more than expected based on previous trades but exaggerating it one way or the other and getting upset about it is not productive guys. Let’s at least try to stay somewhat level headed about it.

 

[OHL4Life]

It is fair to say the value of Guindon is a 2nd and a 3rd based on previous similar trades over the past couple seasons. Was adding a 4th and 5th an overpayment? Yes. Was it a ridiculous or embarrassing overpayment? No.

It is fine to point out that the cost was more than expected based on previous trades but exaggerating it one way or the other and getting upset about it is not productive guys. Let’s at least try to stay somewhat level headed about it.

pretty much it, they liked him and forced owen sound to trade him by adding a 4th and 5th. its not that big of a deal considering the 2 and 3rd are years out.

 

[frontsfan67]

It is fair to say the value of Guindon is a 2nd and a 3rd based on previous similar trades over the past couple seasons. Was adding a 4th and 5th an overpayment? Yes. Was it a ridiculous or embarrassing overpayment? No.

It is fine to point out that the cost was more than expected based on previous trades but exaggerating it one way or the other and getting upset about it is not productive guys. Let’s at least try to stay somewhat level headed about it.

Trade makes sense for both because Kingston pushed the picks way ahead so they still have their 2 2nds in 2026 and 3 in the next 4 years, and 5 3rd rounders In the next 4 even before the frasca trade which the rumour about that is that he will bring 5-6 picks (fair to assume 2 more seconds)

So in a way they upgraded their 1C big time getting guindon over frasca for this year AND extra draft capital to use on other trades.

Also you can’t compare Beck and Guindon- Guindon actually plays defence. Very good trade for both teams.

pretty much it, they liked him and forced owen sound to trade him by adding a 4th and 5th. its not that big of a deal considering the 2 and 3rd are years out.

100% and a 4th and 5th don’t compare anywhere near the value of a 2nd and 3rd in any league.

 

[Knownothing]

So what about Frasca? Points don’t jump off the page. Book on him is a two way defensively responsible C. Went undrafted and doesn’t seem like the player to warrant 5-6 picks. Upside? Sure and still time to take a next step but….

 

[dirty12]

Trade makes sense for both because Kingston pushed the picks way ahead so they still have their 2 2nds in 2026 and 3 in the next 4 years, and 5 3rd rounders In the next 4 even before the frasca trade which the rumour about that is that he will bring 5-6 picks (fair to assume 2 more seconds)

So in a way they upgraded their 1C big time getting guindon over frasca for this year AND extra draft capital to use on other trades.

Also you can’t compare Beck and Guindon- Guindon actually plays defence. Very good trade for both teams.


100% and a 4th and 5th don’t compare anywhere near the value of a 2nd and 3rd in any league.

Beck was a bargain imo.
Compared to cost for a few months of Peer, Maillet, Dubois, Mancini, …the Frontenacs got good value in their deal for Guindon.

I do like the break down of the team improving with Guindon + rather than Frasca

 

[Petes1987]

Beck was a bargain imo.
Compared to cost for a few months of Peer, Maillet, Dubois, Mancini, …the Frontenacs got good value in their deal for Guindon.

I do like the break down of the team improving with Guindon + rather than Frasca

The difference in the Dubois, Peer, Maillet and Mancini compared to Guindon trade was timing. The four players you mentioned were traded at the deadline. Beck was traded at the start of the season. The Petes got more for Dubois versus what they got for Lockhart because Lockhart was a surplus overage where Dubois was traded at the deadline and the Petes did not have to move him.

 

[frontsfan67]

So what about Frasca? Points don’t jump off the page. Book on him is a two way defensively responsible C. Went undrafted and doesn’t seem like the player to warrant 5-6 picks. Upside? Sure and still time to take a next step but….

Before they got Dubois he was point a game pretty sure and had 3 ot winners and was engaged every game. After getting Dubois it seemed like frasca almost quit on the team in a way- didn’t look the same at all. Very clearly needs a change in scenery. On the right team he will be a point a game player who is still pretty darn good defensively THIS YEAR. Probably wants to go to a team where he can be the 1C not play backup anymore his 3rd year in the league.

 

[dirty12]

Before they got Dubois he was point a game pretty sure and had 3 ot winners and was engaged every game. After getting Dubois it seemed like frasca almost quit on the team in a way- didn’t look the same at all. Very clearly needs a change in scenery. On the right team he will be a point a game player who is still pretty darn good defensively THIS YEAR. Probably wants to go to a team where he can be the 1C not play backup anymore his 3rd year in the league.

This might not be exactly accurate; I recall Frasca starting hot, maybe 5-6 games; then seem over matched as a 2C after three weeks.

 

[OMG67]

Trade makes sense for both because Kingston pushed the picks way ahead so they still have their 2 2nds in 2026 and 3 in the next 4 years, and 5 3rd rounders In the next 4 even before the frasca trade which the rumour about that is that he will bring 5-6 picks (fair to assume 2 more seconds)

So in a way they upgraded their 1C big time getting guindon over frasca for this year AND extra draft capital to use on other trades.

Also you can’t compare Beck and Guindon- Guindon actually plays defence. Very good trade for both teams.


100% and a 4th and 5th don’t compare anywhere near the value of a 2nd and 3rd in any league.

I can agree if you said Beck was a winger and Guindon was a centre and centre’s are worth more but, Beck was a very good defensive player in Ottawa and a strong goal scorer. I don’t think you can try to create separation between Beck and Guindon by suggesting Guindon was/is a better defensive player. Statistically, he was the worst 5 on 5 player on his team. Beck has always been at or near the top of the 67’s in +/- and was a fantastic 5 on 5 player.

I think if Guindon goes 27-58-85 +9 this year in Kingston to match Beck last year in SSM, that has to be considered very successful. The separator is the position they play. I can get behind the added picks for the centre in an OA market lacking Centres (but we don’t know that to be true just yet).

 

[OMG67]

This might not be exactly accurate; I recall Frasca starting hot, maybe 5-6 games; then seem over matched as a 2C after three weeks.

Sort of correct because he was injured to start the season and there were only 11 games pre-deadline. Really tough sample size to be honest. He was 6-6-12 -3 in the 11 games prior to 5JAN. The most notable failure was on the PP. He only had two PPG’s after the deadline. I think, if nothing else, his PP numbers will explode.

 

[ScoutLife4]

I can agree if you said Beck was a winger and Guindon was a centre and centre’s are worth more but, Beck was a very good defensive player in Ottawa and a strong goal scorer. I don’t think you can try to create separation between Beck and Guindon by suggesting Guindon was/is a better defensive player. Statistically, he was the worst 5 on 5 player on his team. Beck has always been at or near the top of the 67’s in +/- and was a fantastic 5 on 5 player.

I think if Guindon goes 27-58-85 +9 this year in Kingston to match Beck last year in SSM, that has to be considered very successful. The separator is the position they play. I can get behind the added picks for the centre in an OA market lacking Centres (but we don’t know that to be true just yet).

Plus minus is one of the most meaningless stats in hockey.
Comparing Beck on Ottawa when they were one of the best teams in the league to Guidon who was on one of the worst isn my exactly a useable comparison.

 

[frontsfan67]

I can agree if you said Beck was a winger and Guindon was a centre and centre’s are worth more but, Beck was a very good defensive player in Ottawa and a strong goal scorer. I don’t think you can try to create separation between Beck and Guindon by suggesting Guindon was/is a better defensive player. Statistically, he was the worst 5 on 5 player on his team. Beck has always been at or near the top of the 67’s in +/- and was a fantastic 5 on 5 player.

Guindon played pp, pk and his whole team struggled last year. Not a good plus minus obviously but how many other players on the team played as much as him? He hasn’t missed a game since coming into the OHL so he’s been through all the ups and downs and that could contribute too. Owen sound had 10 goals scored on them shorthanded that could come into play as well

Beck always was on good Ottawa teams also. Hard to compare through plus minus.

 

[OMG67]

Plus minus is one of the most meaningless stats in hockey.
Comparing Beck on Ottawa when they were one of the best teams in the league to Guidon who was on one of the worst isn my exactly a useable comparison.

+/- is not a meaningless stat. It is a meaningless stat when you compare players on good to players on bad teams 1:1. But, +/- is a revealing statistic amongst their own teams players. Guindon, compared to his peers on his own team was CLEARLY the weakest 5 on 5 player. He was a -30. Goure was +7. 1st line centre vs 2nd line centre.

Beck was a +4 on the Ottawa team in 2021-22 that finished 3 games below .500 (-51 GF vs GA). His peers were well into the deep minuses. Guindon, on a similar team that was 1 game below .500 (-28 GF vs GA) finished at -30. There was a 37 goal differential between him and their 1st line centre.

So, yes, Plus/Minus does have a meaningful use when used properly. When you compare apples to apples, plus/minus can be a very revealing statistic. When there is a +37 goal gap between your 1st and 2nd line centre, I do feel it is realistic and relevant to point it out and use it as a viable metric to evaluate performance.

 

[ScoutLife4]

+/- is not a meaningless stat. It is a meaningless stat when you compare players on good to players on bad teams 1:1. But, +/- is a revealing statistic amongst their own teams players. Guindon, compared to his peers on his own team was CLEARLY the weakest 5 on 5 player. He was a -30. Goure was +7. 1st line centre vs 2nd line centre.

Beck was a +4 on the Ottawa team in 2021-22 that finished 3 games below .500 (-51 GF vs GA). His peers were well into the deep minuses. Guindon, on a similar team that was 1 game below .500 (-28 GF vs GA) finished at -30. There was a 37 goal differential between him and their 1st line centre.

So, yes, Plus/Minus does have a meaningful use when used properly. When you compare apples to apples, plus/minus can be a very revealing statistic. When there is a +37 goal gap between your 1st and 2nd line centre, I do feel it is realistic and relevant to point it out and use it as a viable metric to evaluate performance.

You are comparing 36 games to 68 games.
Guidon playing on one of the worst teams in the league for 32 more games is not comparing apples to apples.
So yes, it makes the plus minus completely meaningless the way you are using it.

 

[OMG67]

You are comparing 36 games to 68 games.
Guidon playing on one of the worst teams in the league for 32 more games is not comparing apples to apples.
So yes, it makes the plus minus completely meaningless the way you are using it.

The team was one game below .500. We aren’t talking Ice Dogs territory.

This is what I am talking about when people exaggerate. A one game below .500 team is not horrible. Below average? Yes.

When a team has a goal differential of -28 and Guindon is a -30 while his counterpart centre was a +7, it is disingenuous to suggest his -30 was team related.

The reality is Guindon had a poor season. He underachieved. The expectations on him were much higher as they should have been. He didn’t improve last year from the previous year.

I could say the exact same thing about many other players and their lack of improvement wasn’t team related either.

Sometimes players find their ceiling early. Guindon has managed to find himself in that situation where those that are being honest need to at least recognize this acquisition comes with some risk. If he were to finish the season in Kingston with 55 points, it shouldn’t be a surprise. It should be the bottom end of the points deviation for him. 55-75 points should be his forecast range.

 

[frontsfan67]

55-75 points should be his forecast range.

He will get way more than 55 with Battaglia and uronen/soto. 70-90 is more like it

 

[OMG67]

He will get way more than 55 with Battaglia and uronen/soto. 70-90 is more like it

For Kingston’s case, I hope so. That’s what they paid for.

 

[frontsfan67]

For Kingston’s case, I hope so. That’s what they paid for.

Yes. Had 69 year before as an 18 year old. whole Owen sound team had a rough year his 19 year old season- Barlow didn’t even produce well.

Better linemates this year, 1C, better team. And he’s an OA playing for a last chance at a contract.