GDT: Kings off-season thread

[ibleedkings]

This is my offseason outlook.

UFAs
Brown - Retired
AA - I'd be okay with re-signing at $2 million or less for a year. He's a talented player, but should be seen as depth
Frk - I'd hope the Kings keep him. He brings good experience to the AHL and he makes the powerplay deadly.
Tynan - Two-time AHL MVP? Please retain at any reasonable cost.

Edler - I'd be okay with re-signing at $1.5 or less. He'd be playing a depth role, but the defensive prospects are further along. They shouldn't break the bank for him, but we know the value of depth when a ton of injuries come.
Maatta - Don't re-sign. It's actually not a remark on his ability, but I don't think he'd take much of a pay cut.
Stecher - Don't re-sign. There are too many RHD
Strand - Should be re-signed just for AHL depth.
Wolanin - Should also be re-signed for AHL depth, considering many were promoted to the NHL from the AHL.
Nogier - As with Strand and Wolanin, a lot of depth in the AHL defense was lost.

RFAs
Kempe - Hoping he re-signs for $5.5-6 per. Elias Petterson has a cap hit of $7.35, but he scores more points, has put up more points as an aggregate over the past few years, etc.
Lemieux - Hoping they re-sign, keeping the salary around $1.5-2. I think he brings a lot to the org, but not much more than Lizotte.
Vilardi - He should be re-signed. If they don't re-sign him, then trade. Letting him walk would be the biggest waste of time and talent. Should be re-signed between $925K and $1.25
Andersson, Lias - I like him. But he had a rough year. Hopefully no more than $925K
Grundstrom - Should be re-signed. He didn't have a good chance to play consistently. Definitely should get $1.5
Anderson-Dolan - I think they expected him to take Lizotte's place, but Lizotte won't let it go. Still, he's a valuable depth player who's expected to be a bottom-six player.
Tkachev - IF he'll re-sign, it would be great.
Sodergran - Would like to see him get an injury-free season to try. Don't expect him in the NHL. But a line of Lee - Helenius - Sodergran would bruise a lot of players in the AHL.

Anderson, Mikey - He played top pairing alongside Doughty. No way he doesn't re-sign. He should get between $4.0-5.0. He's not at the Sergachev level (who's making $4.8), but I think he's better than Dunn (who's making $4.0).
Durzi - Definitely worth a pay raise. Hopefully around $3.5. He scored at a similar pace to Dunn, but Dunn is more battle-tested. Ideally would play in the bottom-four.
Moverare - Should be re-signed. Hopefully no more than $1 million. He's the quintessential stay-at-home/No. 7 defenseman. He deserves more time.
Allard - I guess it wouldn't hurt to keep him in the AHL? No plans to have him in the NHL though.

Villalta - I think the organization's ready to move on from him. Don't re-sign.

Hopeful Lineup:
Moore - Danault - [Prospect1]
[Prospect2] - Kopitar - Kempe
Iafallo - [Prospect3] - Arvidsson
[Depth1] - Lizotte - [Depth2]

Anderson - Doughty
Bjornfot - Spence
Edler/Moverare - Durzi

Quick
Petersen

[Prospect1] = A player 24 or under who can play the scoring role. Ideally, this would be Kaliyev, but I think Vilardi would also benefit from playing with these players. Tkachev would be interesting.
[Prospect2] = Another player 24 or under who can play the scoring role. This could be any forward, such as Kaliyev, Byfield, Turcotte, Kupari, Grundstrom, or Fagemo.
[Prospect3] = Someone who would benefit from having fast and hard working players. Kupari, Byfield, or Turcotte. Again, the expectation is to help provide secondary/tertiary scoring. At this point, still getting 15ish minutes/game.
[Depth1]/[Depth2] The remaining depth players or prospects 24 or under should get regular minutes. Ideally, these players play more of a checking/grinding role to match Lizotte's play. That would be players like Lemieux, Grundstrom, Andersson (if re-signed), JAD, Akil Thomas, Kupari, AA (even though he's more of a skilled scorer, he could also change the dynamics of this line entirely).

The expectations of next season:
- Make the playoffs
- Improved Special Teams (Top 20 in both Powerplay and Penalty Kill)
- 35-45 points for 2 players 24 or under; Kaliyev led all in this age group with 27 points
- 30 goals from the blueline, total. The Kings had the second lowest goals from the blueline (21 total, which is fewer than Roman Josi by himself; only Detroit had fewer goals from the blueline with 20).
- Top 20 in Goals against (they were 23rd this season)
- Top 20 in Goals for (they were 20th this season)

Miscellaneous Notes:
- I'm not a fan of making an all-rookie line. Especially since they usually get reduced minutes. But instead, they should play with veterans who not only can find them and insulate them, but let them learn how to communicate internally so they can eventually have their own line.
- Placing prospects in the top-six is not automatically "giving" them a spot. They should earn it compared to other prospects. More importantly, if a prospect struggles in a top-six role, put another prospect in his place after a few days.
- I don't expect the Kings to have a top-10 scorer or anything unrealistic. However, I do expect the Kings to have average overall output. Top-20 in most metrics should be reasonable for a playoff team who is getting out of a rebuild.
- Clarke and Walker are the wildcards. For Clarke, MAYBE they can play him for nine games and send Spence down to the AHL for that stint, since he's waiver eligible. Walker is essentially competing directly with Durzi. I expect one to be traded. Durzi has better points per game and Walker has better goals per game in their young careers.
- I really think Blake did a good job assembling a decent roster. I think there needs to be a better focus on bringing the young players along the way so they can take over.

I would've thought you'd mention maybe changing out a few coaches KP. I hope Sturm is gone at the least. Also the Kings need to make a run for Nylander if he becomes available.

 

[KingsFan7824]

As a 50 year Kings fan I learned a long time ago to hope for the best but expect the worst. 2012 thru 2014 made up for all of the past and well into the future but I still find it hard to be optimistic.

You say that like it's unique. This is basically being a sports fan.

 

[kinghock]

it's a good thing i'm not a gm because I would trade Durzi after seeing him stop and raise his hands after a legit hook instead of continuing to defend mcdavid.

I would trade Durzi now when he has some value.
He will be exposed next year even more and will have none.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I would trade Durzi now when he has some value.
He will be exposed next year even more and will have none.

Counterpoint: he will be exposed much less next year in his role and actually be better since he'll be rolling safer minutes/deployment as a 4/6 RHD.

I think people are sleeping on how big Durzi's emergence is because of how he's playing as a "Drew Doughty" 1D instead of as a Kevin Shattenkirk offensive specialist where he should be

 

[kinghock]

Counterpoint: he will be exposed much less next year in his role and actually be better since he'll be rolling safer minutes/deployment as a 4/6 RHD.

I think people are sleeping on how big Durzi's emergence is because of how he's playing as a "Drew Doughty" 1D instead of as a Kevin Shattenkirk offensive specialist where he should be

With all due respect I have to disagree with your opinion regarding Durzi.

In my view Durzi has 2 fatal flows in his game:

He is incredibly slow footed for player of his size

His defensive IQ is very low and I do not believe that him playing safer minutes will fix it.


P.S. Spence do not have these flows...

 

[Basilisk]

Trade all players under 5'11'' for players over 6'2''.......

 

[mysterman2]

Bjornfot-Doughty
Anderson-Clarke
Durzi/Walker-Roy
Spence

Depending on Clarkes camp....that is a solid d corp. Would add that packaging Walker/Durzi makes a lot of sense. I love Durzis passion and game but the Shattenkirk comparison is a fair and accurate one. Was never as big on Walker as the others and Spence is going to be better than all the afore mentioned players. Roy is as good as it gets for a 5/6 dman on a low contract and who knows what wild card in the mix via trade or prospect making a leap...Grans for example.

As for the Kopi- hes servicable but has to have reduced minutes. I dont really think thats it even debatable at this point. If you want to maximize those remaining two years we better hope there can be an emerging Center to reduce those minutes.

 

[unicornpig]

Honestly, do we keep any of the UFAs? Maatta?

if they strike out on LD maata at a discount is what i predict.

give edler money to giordano

 

[King'sPawn]

I would've thought you'd mention maybe changing out a few coaches KP. I hope Sturm is gone at the least. Also the Kings need to make a run for Nylander if he becomes available.

It seems that McLellan is just as responsible for the PP as Sturm. So I didn't want to throw him under the bus.

And for my complaints about McLellan, I actually like him as a coach. And he did at least get them to the playoffs, so I'm all for giving him another chance.

Of course, if we remain among the worst in a few metrics, then wholesale changes need to be made. I just don't believe in blowing things up in these circumstances.

 

[KINGS17]

Yeah I could see dropping one of them down to the third line to spread the scoring out a bit more, but off the team? They were two of our top five players this year.

Demitra was the Kings best player when he was traded.

And they don't even make the playoffs at all without getting Carter -- he got lucky.

 

[KINGS17]

I find it laughable that anybody wants to give a bigger role to Byfield than Kopitar. Yes Kopitar
is sliding quickly down the wrong side of the hill but he is light years ahead of Byfield who has shown nothing.

Kopitar's minutes are going to have to be taken by someone. Better to find out now if Byfield is an option at 1C.

 

[Fishhead]

Counterpoint: he will be exposed much less next year in his role and actually be better since he'll be rolling safer minutes/deployment as a 4/6 RHD.

I think people are sleeping on how big Durzi's emergence is because of how he's playing as a "Drew Doughty" 1D instead of as a Kevin Shattenkirk offensive specialist where he should be

It's probably somewhere in the middle, like always. I want to think Durzi can keep improving but I don't see the tools there. Was he a revelation because he is a late bloomer, or is he just a revelation because he was so bad defensively before his current play looks phenomenal?

I wouldn't be upset at all if he was used in a deal to bring in a needed piece, but it all comes down to how other teams perceive his value. He would fit better in other systems, no doubt. But if other teams don't value him that much, I'm fine with seeing if he can develop into a key part of the team.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

With all due respect I have to disagree with your opinion regarding Durzi.

In my view Durzi has 2 fatal flows in his game:

He is incredibly slow footed for player of his size

His defensive IQ is very low and I do not believe that him playing safer minutes will fix it.


P.S. Spence do not have these flows...

I don't disagree with any of this--and playing safer minutes won't 'fix' Durzi's flaws, but more offensive deployment and less defensive heavy lifting plays to his strengths. He's a 'specialist' and arguably one we need, at least until Clarke is ready, and he brings a serious set of intangibles and brass balls that very few on the team have.

I'm basically president of the Spence fan club toot hough, no argument here.

 

[Matt13]

We currently have 9 D on the team plus 2 in LTIR. I would say of the 11, 9 stick around.

Doughty / Anderson
Walker / Edler (add for 1 year again)
Roy / Durzi

Bjornfot

Maatta - Just no room plus 27, probably looking for term. and I feel like he would have been re-signed already if he was in the future plans.
Spence - (21)First Call Up
Moverare - (23)2nd Call Up. May need to trade as he may not be waiver exempt
Steccher - (28) Two Way Contract?

I dont see any trades happening

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I think Stetcher is gone, I'd move Walker to the left side, one of Edler/Maatta is gone.
Doughty/Anderson
Walker/Roy
Maatta/Durzi
Bjornfot, Moverare
Spence first callup

Wouldn't be surprised to see both Maatta AND Edler out with Moverare moving in instead of inevitably getting lost to waivers throughout the season. Experience isn't an issue anymore.

OR trade for Soucy and

Doughty Anderson
Walker Roy
Soucy Durzi
Moverare Bjornfot

 

[Piston]

This is my offseason outlook.

UFAs
Brown - Retired
AA - I'd be okay with re-signing at $2 million or less for a year. He's a talented player, but should be seen as depth
Frk - I'd hope the Kings keep him. He brings good experience to the AHL and he makes the powerplay deadly.
Tynan - Two-time AHL MVP? Please retain at any reasonable cost.

Edler - I'd be okay with re-signing at $1.5 or less. He'd be playing a depth role, but the defensive prospects are further along. They shouldn't break the bank for him, but we know the value of depth when a ton of injuries come.
Maatta - Don't re-sign. It's actually not a remark on his ability, but I don't think he'd take much of a pay cut.
Stecher - Don't re-sign. There are too many RHD
Strand - Should be re-signed just for AHL depth.
Wolanin - Should also be re-signed for AHL depth, considering many were promoted to the NHL from the AHL.
Nogier - As with Strand and Wolanin, a lot of depth in the AHL defense was lost.

RFAs
Kempe - Hoping he re-signs for $5.5-6 per. Elias Petterson has a cap hit of $7.35, but he scores more points, has put up more points as an aggregate over the past few years, etc.
Lemieux - Hoping they re-sign, keeping the salary around $1.5-2. I think he brings a lot to the org, but not much more than Lizotte.
Vilardi - He should be re-signed. If they don't re-sign him, then trade. Letting him walk would be the biggest waste of time and talent. Should be re-signed between $925K and $1.25
Andersson, Lias - I like him. But he had a rough year. Hopefully no more than $925K
Grundstrom - Should be re-signed. He didn't have a good chance to play consistently. Definitely should get $1.5
Anderson-Dolan - I think they expected him to take Lizotte's place, but Lizotte won't let it go. Still, he's a valuable depth player who's expected to be a bottom-six player.
Tkachev - IF he'll re-sign, it would be great.
Sodergran - Would like to see him get an injury-free season to try. Don't expect him in the NHL. But a line of Lee - Helenius - Sodergran would bruise a lot of players in the AHL.

Anderson, Mikey - He played top pairing alongside Doughty. No way he doesn't re-sign. He should get between $4.0-5.0. He's not at the Sergachev level (who's making $4.8), but I think he's better than Dunn (who's making $4.0).
Durzi - Definitely worth a pay raise. Hopefully around $3.5. He scored at a similar pace to Dunn, but Dunn is more battle-tested. Ideally would play in the bottom-four.
Moverare - Should be re-signed. Hopefully no more than $1 million. He's the quintessential stay-at-home/No. 7 defenseman. He deserves more time.
Allard - I guess it wouldn't hurt to keep him in the AHL? No plans to have him in the NHL though.

Villalta - I think the organization's ready to move on from him. Don't re-sign.

Hopeful Lineup:
Moore - Danault - [Prospect1]
[Prospect2] - Kopitar - Kempe
Iafallo - [Prospect3] - Arvidsson
[Depth1] - Lizotte - [Depth2]

Anderson - Doughty
Bjornfot - Spence
Edler/Moverare - Durzi

Quick
Petersen

[Prospect1] = A player 24 or under who can play the scoring role. Ideally, this would be Kaliyev, but I think Vilardi would also benefit from playing with these players. Tkachev would be interesting.
[Prospect2] = Another player 24 or under who can play the scoring role. This could be any forward, such as Kaliyev, Byfield, Turcotte, Kupari, Grundstrom, or Fagemo.
[Prospect3] = Someone who would benefit from having fast and hard working players. Kupari, Byfield, or Turcotte. Again, the expectation is to help provide secondary/tertiary scoring. At this point, still getting 15ish minutes/game.
[Depth1]/[Depth2] The remaining depth players or prospects 24 or under should get regular minutes. Ideally, these players play more of a checking/grinding role to match Lizotte's play. That would be players like Lemieux, Grundstrom, Andersson (if re-signed), JAD, Akil Thomas, Kupari, AA (even though he's more of a skilled scorer, he could also change the dynamics of this line entirely).

The expectations of next season:
- Make the playoffs
- Improved Special Teams (Top 20 in both Powerplay and Penalty Kill)
- 35-45 points for 2 players 24 or under; Kaliyev led all in this age group with 27 points
- 30 goals from the blueline, total. The Kings had the second lowest goals from the blueline (21 total, which is fewer than Roman Josi by himself; only Detroit had fewer goals from the blueline with 20).
- Top 20 in Goals against (they were 23rd this season)
- Top 20 in Goals for (they were 20th this season)

Miscellaneous Notes:
- I'm not a fan of making an all-rookie line. Especially since they usually get reduced minutes. But instead, they should play with veterans who not only can find them and insulate them, but let them learn how to communicate internally so they can eventually have their own line.
- Placing prospects in the top-six is not automatically "giving" them a spot. They should earn it compared to other prospects. More importantly, if a prospect struggles in a top-six role, put another prospect in his place after a few days.
- I don't expect the Kings to have a top-10 scorer or anything unrealistic. However, I do expect the Kings to have average overall output. Top-20 in most metrics should be reasonable for a playoff team who is getting out of a rebuild.
- Clarke and Walker are the wildcards. For Clarke, MAYBE they can play him for nine games and send Spence down to the AHL for that stint, since he's waiver eligible. Walker is essentially competing directly with Durzi. I expect one to be traded. Durzi has better points per game and Walker has better goals per game in their young careers.
- I really think Blake did a good job assembling a decent roster. I think there needs to be a better focus on bringing the young players along the way so they can take over.

The problem with this analysis is that the Kings are near the limit on 50 SPCs.

Signed for next season (32):

Kopitar
Danault
Arvidsson
Iafallo
Moore
Kaliyev
Byfield
Kupari
Lizotte
Roy
Doughty
Walker
Bjornfot
Spence
Wagner
Quick
Peterson
Madden
Turcotte
Helenius
Chromiak
Fagemo
Thomas
Dudas
Lee
Pinelli
Ward
Clarke
Grans
Nousiainen
Ingam
Hrenak

Definitely resigned (7):

Kempe
Lemieux
Vilardi
Grundstrom
Anderson
Durzi
Anderson- Dolan

Possibly Resigned (7):

Andersson
Edler or Maata
Moverare
Tkachev
Frk
Strand
Wollanin

That's 46 slots. You still need to have an AHL goalie who can step up if Quick or Peterson gets hurt, and you have to figure at least one player from the reserve list and one draftee will be signed. That's not a lot of room, particularly if you want to add an UFA. The Kings are going to need to move some contracts or move on from some names in the 'possibly resigned' category. As I said earlier, the player that makes the most sense to move is Iafallo (possibly to his hometown Buffalo for one of their three 2nd round picks)- to free up his slot in the lineup for a prospect.

 

[Lt Dan]

The problem with this analysis is that the Kings are near the limit on 50 SPCs.

Signed for next season (32):

Kopitar
Danault
Arvidsson
Iafallo
Moore
Kaliyev
Byfield
Kupari
Lizotte
Roy
Doughty
Walker
Bjornfot
Spence
Wagner
Quick
Peterson
Madden
Turcotte
Helenius
Chromiak
Fagemo
Thomas
Dudas
Lee
Pinelli
Ward
Clarke
Grans
Nousiainen
Ingam
Hrenak

Definitely resigned (7):

Kempe
Lemieux
Vilardi
Grundstrom
Anderson
Durzi
Anderson- Dolan

Possibly Resigned (7):

Andersson
Edler or Maata
Moverare
Tkachev
Frk
Strand
Wollanin

That's 46 slots. You still need to have an AHL goalie who can step up if Quick or Peterson gets hurt, and you have to figure at least one player from the reserve list and one draftee will be signed. That's not a lot of room, particularly if you want to add an UFA. The Kings are going to need to move some contracts or move on from some names in the 'possibly resigned' category. As I said earlier, the player that makes the most sense to move is Iafallo (possibly to his hometown Buffalo for one of their three 2nd round picks)- to free up his slot in the lineup for a prospect.

I am pretty sure Walker has lost his spot.
I also think we are going to trade a few guys off in a package for a D man for F

 

[Fishhead]

I think Soucy would be a great fit, I'm definitely down for a trade for him. We shouldn't sleep on Bjornfot, either. He finished with a team worst -12, but he was a -9 after his mid-march knee injury. He was more than holding his own and he's barely turned 21.

With so many defensive options it's past time for some consolidation of talent. While the season was an overall success, the one thing I wanted Blake to do was try to bring in a physical, SAH type in the proper age range that could grow with the team. Can't say if he tried or not, but it didn't happen so that's something I think needs to be done this offseason.

 

[head eyes]

Any Kings going to Worlds?

 

[Mats26]

Any Kings going to Worlds?

Not sure, but I think we should send some, like the coach, to space though.

 

[JKG33]

Its time to start consolidating assets. These are a few moves I'd look into:

I'd still go hard after Chychrun. If you can move the 1st, one or even 2 of Durzi/Spence/Grans, and a forward prospect I'd do it. See if Iafallo can be included for cap reasons, and maybe look at bringing in Crouse as well.

Then I'd be looking at one of the RFA forwards like Fiala or Boeser and see what the cost is there. If its a reasonable futures price I'd probably pull the trigger provided they cant sign Forsberg.

If Walker isn't included in either of the above deals I'd look to move him for a pick or forward prospect. Teams always want RD and he's got a reasonable cap hit, he's just redundant with the amount of depth LA has on D.

I'm even more disappointed in Byfield now than I was on draft day. Seeing Stuetzle really step up as a center this year in Ottawa makes it even worse. If he's someone Arizona wants for Chychrun, Blake should really consider it.

I'd look a few of Vilardi, JAD, Madden, Fagemo to make the lineup next year with another one or two of them being traded. Turcotte probably starts the year in the AHL again.

 

[WHOneedsSOX]

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

great, now wtf happened to Arvidssson.....

 

[JKG33]

Just a thought I had, would ya'll consider something around Iafallo and Walker for Tavares? Obviously Tavares' contract isn't great, but this team needs scoring and JT is still a PPG player. If they strike out on Forsberg, and the costs of players like Fiala or Boeser is too high I wouldn't hate adding Tavares.

For Toronto I think Iafallo would be the type of player that would work well and rebound on a line with Nylander, and adding a RD like Walker at a reasonable cap hit is helpful.

 

[Schmooley]

Just a thought I had, would ya'll consider something around Iafallo and Walker for Tavares? Obviously Tavares' contract isn't great, but this team needs scoring and JT is still a PPG player. If they strike out on Forsberg, and the costs of players like Fiala or Boeser is too high I wouldn't hate adding Tavares.

For Toronto I think Iafallo would be the type of player that would work well and rebound on a line with Nylander, and adding a RD like Walker at a reasonable cap hit is helpful.

No way dawg