Rumor: KINGS 2018-19 Season- Luc/Rob ****Show/ Sell Everyone!! Part 3

[DoktorJeep]

Lombardi had no track record of success either, you realize that right?

The Sharks were more successful than the Kings during DLs tenure as SJ GM. I didn’t say track record with cup wins.

 

[KingsFan7824]

I think we also had a coach that understood how to motivate a team to put out maximum effort.

Came in for half a year in 11-12, and then the team hit a stride few teams have ever hit in the playoffs. Then a half season lockout, and the team only has to deal with the coach for half a season for a 2nd consecutive season. Then a full season in 13-14, but after starting the season 25-8-4, they finished 21-20-4, and then went down 0-3 to the Sharks, with the first 2 games ending in embarrassing fashion. Then something clicked again in Game 4. Then the following season was the trash cans blocking the door. With Williams, and Stoll, and Regehr, and Greene on the team. Richards might've been in the AHL at that time, I forget. All that leadership in 14-15 still here, and they couldn't muster enough to beat a pre-McDavid Oilers team in the last week.

Anyway, seems like they lucked out having to deal with Sutter for only relatively short amounts of time, other than 13-14, when they forgot the playoffs started.

 

[Piston]

I’m just a long time Kings fan who is speculating out loud out of concern over the direction of the franchise. There are zero objective reasons to cut Luc and Blake and ultimately AEG any slack for their performance.

I still can watch the team and enjoy hockey and praise obvious progress and growth. But I’m not going to put faith in a couple of guys who have no track record of success as builders of NHL rosters.

What exactly are Blake’s qualifications for the job and how does he rate against available replacements is the real discussion coming IMO. What will be interesting is whether Beckerman and Luc go too, or if Blake is a fall guy.

Excellent post! At least Blake has his experience as a player to fall back on to evaluate talent. And, the ability we have to develop goalies and defensemen, a DL legacy, should help him although we could stand to have an upgrade to scouting. Luc, on the other hand has no requisite experience to perform his role. He likely does not know the difference between and income statement and a balance sheet, has no business background and lacks the strategic competence to sit on the NHL Board of Governors. He may have been a great player, but he strikes me a lightweight who gets by on looks and charisma. Plus, I think he stabbed DL in the back. In my opinion, he is an embarrassment in his role as opposed to Blake where you can make a strong case that he should be given an opportunity to be successful. Beckerman is not going anywhere. He is evaluated based on the profitability of AEG and its various enterprises as opposed to the success of the Kings year to year. Luc will try and make Blake he fall guy if things don't work out, but I can't see the former surviving either. Beckerman has one of the best jobs in America and will do whatever he has to in order to keep it.

 

[deeshamrock]

I've said for a long time those guys are 'irreplaceable.' But even I didn't think it could be at this level. My example was always Stoll; it's 'easy' to find a 3C who is more productive, more talented than late-career Stoll. But you're not replacing the intangibles. Some got a good laugh out of that. Many agreed, though. And I don't see how anyone who followed our 2012-2014 teams could not believe in the value of intangibles and/or things beyond raw scoring talent as they pertain to winning.

Dean Lombardi, my god man, those trades he made for character...

And Mitchell, for me, was a huge loss for them. Not just for what he did on the ice, but the large shadow he cast in the locker room. The kind of leader, is the kind that would be very hard to replace. He had a big voice in that room and was respected by every guy he suited up with , and losing that, and looking for somebody else to step up, was a void they couldn't fill.

 

[YP44]

And Mitchell, for me, was a huge loss for them. Not just for what he did on the ice, but the large shadow he cast in the locker room. The kind of leader, is the kind that would be very hard to replace. He had a big voice in that room and was respected by every guy he suited up with , and losing that, and looking for somebody else to step up, was a void they couldn't fill.

Look at how good Ekblad was till Mitchell got injured too. His impact is huge.

 

[BigKing]

What it sounds like you are saying and lots of others is that our cup teams were not necessarily talented but had lots of intangibles. I dont disagree with that. I think the way those intangibles manifested was into playing hard, especially defensively. I think we also had a coach that understood how to motivate a team to put out maximum effort.

I don't think thar those type of players require incredibly high draft picks tho.

What am I missing? Why do we need to completely rebuild in order to build a team with intangibles and defensive mindset?

2014 playoff roster had 11 first round picks and five 2nd round picks.

One of those includes Schultz who replaced Regher, so 1st rounder for 1st rounder, although I think they overlapped for Game 1 against ANA. So, for at least that game, you had 16 of the 20 players dressed that were either 1st or 2nd round picks with the majority being 1st rounders. Voynov and Clifford were 32nd and 35thOA so they were at the top of the 2nd round.

You can say that there wasn't so much talent etc...but there was a ton of pedigree on that team as well as elite talent. You can say the building blocks were 11/8/32 but the supporting cast was not chopped liver and were not scrap heap pick-ups except for what looked like a rental in Gaborik who, for a season and a half, was Marian Gaborik again. He was whatever he was the season before and then from 2016 forward, but he was an elite-level goal scorer for that season and a half that coincided with the 2014 Cup.

Now, Kupari could be a stud and Vilardi could get healthy with both being impact players. Maybe JAD is a solid 3rd line guy to go along with Grundstrom as well. They sign Panarin, get immediate help from some prospects and, if luck has it, Hughes/Kakko, and they are sniffing the playoffs again.

Sure. Not saying that can't happen but 2012 and '14 were the culmination of gathering assets, drafting well and then filling in the empty spots with savvy trades. There are too many holes to fill right now via FA and not a ton of assets they can part with that aren't difficult to move because of contracts. Your line of reasoning makes it seem so simple to turn a five-years older 11/8/32 into Cup contenders: especially when looking at the current roster and contract figures.

Again, this is why it seems so important to pick #1/2. I know there are no guarantees, but adding Hughes would go a long way towards your belief that they can be right back in the thick of things via say, Panarin, and having current prospects flourish quickly.

I don't want to read too much into it, but locking season seat pricing for two seasons if we renew by March 30th and choose auto-renewal going forward makes me believe that they will not be making any major splashes this off-season and that any movement of 77/32 etc...will be for assets not expected to make an immediate impact.

 

[Rusty Batch]

2014 playoff roster had 11 first round picks and five 2nd round picks.

One of those includes Schultz who replaced Regher, so 1st rounder for 1st rounder, although I think they overlapped for Game 1 against ANA. So, for at least that game, you had 16 of the 20 players dressed that were either 1st or 2nd round picks with the majority being 1st rounders. Voynov and Clifford were 32nd and 35thOA so they were at the top of the 2nd round.

You can say that there wasn't so much talent etc...but there was a ton of pedigree on that team as well as elite talent. You can say the building blocks were 11/8/32 but the supporting cast was not chopped liver and were not scrap heap pick-ups except for what looked like a rental in Gaborik who, for a season and a half, was Marian Gaborik again. He was whatever he was the season before and then from 2016 forward, but he was an elite-level goal scorer for that season and a half that coincided with the 2014 Cup.

Now, Kupari could be a stud and Vilardi could get healthy with both being impact players. Maybe JAD is a solid 3rd line guy to go along with Grundstrom as well. They sign Panarin, get immediate help from some prospects and, if luck has it, Hughes/Kakko, and they are sniffing the playoffs again.

Sure. Not saying that can't happen but 2012 and '14 were the culmination of gathering assets, drafting well and then filling in the empty spots with savvy trades. There are too many holes to fill right now via FA and not a ton of assets they can part with that aren't difficult to move because of contracts. Your line of reasoning makes it seem so simple to turn a five-years older 11/8/32 into Cup contenders: especially when looking at the current roster and contract figures.

Again, this is why it seems so important to pick #1/2. I know there are no guarantees, but adding Hughes would go a long way towards your belief that they can be right back in the thick of things via say, Panarin, and having current prospects flourish quickly.

I don't want to read too much into it, but locking season seat pricing for two seasons if we renew by March 30th and choose auto-renewal going forward makes me believe that they will not be making any major splashes this off-season and that any movement of 77/32 etc...will be for assets not expected to make an immediate impact.

Its not that i think its simple, its that i think its definitely our best shot at contending. And i don't really see the downside to it. We can still trade Kopi or Doughty for a big return. If we decide to go that route. Id trade the vast majority of the rest of our roster though. As they are largely worthless.

 

[KINGS17]

Maybe I've missed it, but is anyone talking about how the Reign is doing just as well as the Kings? Actually, better...last place overall! Wow, Blake is really having a hell of a year....

View attachment 195601

Do the Kings get extra lottery balls for this?

 

[deeshamrock]

Look at how good Ekblad was till Mitchell got injured too. His impact is huge.

Valid point. And rooming with Willie and his wife those first few years, was great for him.

 

[BigKing]

Its not that i think its simple, its that i think its definitely our best shot at contending. And i don't really see the downside to it. We can still trade Kopi or Doughty for a big return. If we decide to go that route. Id trade the vast majority of the rest of our roster though. As they are largely worthless.

Duly noted.

Not entirely sure of the big return for Kopitar: Doughty would still get one though, I think.

 

[KINGS17]

Just have a question for you. Do you play hockey? I only ask this as I play for 3 teams and between 60 to 90 games a year depending on work and injuries. There is a massive talent gap between the 3 teams and about 6 levels in the league. Technically I should not be playing on team 3 because I exceed the talent level but the league allows it because the team is so bad. To try and make it simple think of it this way.

Team 1 - NHL level - it’s not but to help explain the approximate differences in levels

Team 2 - a loaded AHL team

Team 3 - a poor ECHL team


Now I am playing almost above my head at the NHL level but I am averaging a point a game or a hair under because of the high skill players around me. I would compare myself and n relation to a Jeff Carter having a great year. Basically I won’t lead the league in scoring but I provide a lot for the team.


Now team 3 - ECHL.

I should destroy this league. There are 2 to 3 of us on this team in any given game that should not have any right to play in that division. 1 guy plays defense and us other 2 line up as our 2 centers and double shift so we always have someone our there to lead the offense. Now we should be Gretzky and Lemieux in that league and crush the scoring title but we only average that same point a game we do in our top league. Why you wonder? We are forced to do it all with no help. We are forced to play every situation and lead the offense and backcheck.

I compare this to the Kings and in particular Kopitar and Doughty. Put those two on any other competitive team like Winnipeg, Calgary, etc and they would have way better numbers across the boards and no one would care about their salaries.

Put them in Vega, Tampa or Florida and knock a million off each contract. Yes there is a tax bias.

They crushed it last year w no talent but trust me, it takes a toll in not just your body but your mind. It’s been 4 years for me on both teams and I can honestly say there are just some plays on my ECHL team that 2 years ago I would have gave that extra 10 percent to make but now I say screw It. Yes wrong attitude but you get tired of teammates just not having the talent to help.

I guess I really see this with the Kings. I still think Kopitar and Doughty are top players but we need to surround them with the proper players . Now if management can’t do that then trade them for the future. If they can get out from under Quick, Phaneuf and Carter and land a top 2 pick this could be a different team.

Yes, I have played and not only hockey. I like you was one of the better players on my adult hockey team playing once a week. Unlike us though, Doughty and Kopitar are paid to show up every game of every season. I don't expect them to be at their best every game. They are human, and no player plays their best or can put forth their best effort every single game.

Doughty and Kopitar, for the amount of money they are receiving, should be leading the way and be held accountable for winning hockey games. You are correct about trading them. If the Kings aren't going to surround them with enough talent to win during the few remaining good seasons they have left (especially Kopitar), they should be traded. Problem is, no GM in the NHL would want Kopitar's contract.

Doughty's recent talk about sticking with it come what may is a bit surprising to me. Prior to signing his last deal he indicated he wanted no part of a team in a rebuild. He isn't going anywhere either without his consent.

 

[Rusty Batch]

Problem is, no GM in the NHL would want Kopitar's contract.

You sure about that? because vegas just gave up one of the best prospects in the world and a second round pick for the privelage of signing Mark Stone to a kopitar contract...

 

[KINGS17]

You sure about that? because vegas just gave up one of the best prospects in the world and a second round pick for the privelage of signing Mark Stone to a kopitar contract...

Mark Stone, age 26

Angie Kopitar, age 31

 

[Rusty Batch]

Mark Stone, age 26

Angie Kopitar, age 31

Mark stone wasnt even outscoring his teammate Duchene on a per game basis, has durability issues, plays winger, will likely get his first 65 point season this year (contract year). And yet simply because of his age you know that Vegas or any other team wouldn't give up anything for last seasons hart finalist and Selke winner? Because hes 31 and likely only has 5 or so good years left...

Ok bud...

 

[DoktorJeep]

Revisionist history on the Kopitar valuation could be interesting if he hadn’t signed a $6.8m / yr, 7 year, long term deal out of his $800k 3 yr ELC.

What If he had taken a 2 year bridge deal instead which ran from the 09-10 season to the 11-12 season. At that point, coming off the first cup in franchise history, just like Brown, maybe he gets $10m for 8 years. Maybe even a little less than $10m.

So now,Kopitar would be a ufa at the end of next season, instead of 5 seasons from now.

Lesson learned on bridge deals.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Yes, I have played and not only hockey. I like you was one of the better players on my adult hockey team playing once a week. Unlike us though, Doughty and Kopitar are paid to show up every game of every season. I don't expect them to be at their best every game. They are human, and no player plays their best or can put forth their best effort every single game.

Doughty and Kopitar, for the amount of money they are receiving, should be leading the way and be held accountable for winning hockey games. You are correct about trading them. If the Kings aren't going to surround them with enough talent to win during the few remaining good seasons they have left (especially Kopitar), they should be traded. Problem is, no GM in the NHL would want Kopitar's contract.

Doughty's recent talk about sticking with it come what may is a bit surprising to me. Prior to signing his last deal he indicated he wanted no part of a team in a rebuild. He isn't going anywhere either without his consent.

All this and you ignore the salient part of his post about Kopitar and Doughty,

"There are 2 to 3 of us on this team in any given game that should not have any right to play in that division. 1 guy plays defense and us other 2 line up as our 2 centers and double shift so we always have someone our there to lead the offense. Now we should be Gretzky and Lemieux in that league and crush the scoring title but we only average that same point a game we do in our top league. Why you wonder? We are forced to do it all with no help. We are forced to play every situation and lead the offense and backcheck.

I compare this to the Kings and in particular Kopitar and Doughty. Put those two on any other competitive team like Winnipeg, Calgary, etc and they would have way better numbers across the boards and no one would care about their salaries."

At least respond to the SALIENT part of the post there...

Instead of....yes, I played and not only hockey, and I was uh...good, but they are paid every game unlike us.....

Freaking nonsense.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

You sure about that? because vegas just gave up one of the best prospects in the world and a second round pick for the privelage of signing Mark Stone to a kopitar contract...

The Stone contract runs from 26 - 34 years old, which covers basically all of his prime production years. Those 34-36 years are a dealbreaker and it's infuriating to see people continue pretending like they're not.

Lastly, if Blake calls up GMGM right now and offers Kopitar for Stone straight up, GMGM hangs up the phone. Kopitar's contract is considered untradeable for a reason.

 

[funky]

Revisionist history on the Kopitar valuation could be interesting if he hadn’t signed a $6.8m / yr, 7 year, long term deal out of his $800k 3 yr ELC.

What If he had taken a 2 year bridge deal instead which ran from the 09-10 season to the 11-12 season. At that point, coming off the first cup in franchise history, just like Brown, maybe he gets $10m for 8 years. Maybe even a little less than $10m.

So now,Kopitar would be a ufa at the end of next season, instead of 5 seasons from now.

Lesson learned on bridge deals.

That is a very interesting take on things. Never thought of that. That hindsight thing strikes again.

Another interesting tidbit I heard while driving to the ski hill today I was listening to NHL radio and they stated that Doughty has been on the ice for 13 or 14 empty net goals which is a huge blow to the plus minus and I Cannot remember how long they said for the Kings to actually score with the goalie pulled but it was well over 20 some at times.

 

[BigKing]

But they got Kopitar for a cap hit of only $6.8MM during his prime years, including when this team was winning Cups.

If his cap hit is larger, does it allow for certain roster additions and contract re-signings during that time frame?

 

[Rusty Batch]

The Stone contract runs from 26 - 34 years old, which covers basically all of his prime production years. Those 34-36 years are a dealbreaker and it's infuriating to see people continue pretending like they're not.

Lastly, if Blake calls up GMGM right now and offers Kopitar for Stone straight up, GMGM hangs up the phone. Kopitar's contract is considered untradeable for a reason.

Often times players that are at the caliber of Kopi ( you know, 2 time selke winners, 4 time selke finalist, Hart finalist just last season, 2 time stanley cup winner, 2 time playoff scoring leader, and what 10 yrs worth of leading his team in scoring) are capable of out producing guys a few years younger then them who have done none of those things and have durability issues. But im glad you and kings17 are able to know for a fact that thats not true, due to age alone lol.

 

[KINGS17]

Mark stone wasnt even outscoring his teammate Duchene on a per game basis, has durability issues, plays winger, will likely get his first 65 point season this year (contract year). And yet simply because of his age you know that Vegas or any other team wouldn't give up anything for last seasons hart finalist and Selke winner? Because hes 31 and likely only has 5 or so good years left...

Ok bud...

Where did I say Stone's contract was a great deal for Vegas?

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Often times players that are at the caliber of Kopi ( you know, 2 time selke winners, 4 time selke finalist, Hart finalist just last season, 2 time stanley cup winner, 2 time playoff scoring leader, and what 10 yrs worth of leading his team in scoring) are capable of out producing guys a few years younger then them who have done none of those things and have durability issues. But im glad you and kings17 are able to know for a fact that thats not true, due to age alone lol.

You keep comparing Kopitar to Stone head to head on the basis of skill and past accomplishments without any consideration for their contracts and ages, so yes, K17 and I will focus on contracts and ages. No one doubts Kopitar is a superior player with a superior career. That's not even up for debate, nor does it have anything at all to do with the value of their contracts.

I've never claimed to know anything for a fact other than this: part of building a contending team is consideration of long term cap structure. Kopitar's final two years are a very difficult pill to swallow for any team, not because he's certain to suddenly become a terrible player in those years, but rather the chances are unfavorable for ANY 35 year old+ player being worth a cap hit that large.

It's a very different story if Kopitar is signed from ages 26 - 34, like Stone. Every measurable statistic presents a very clear narrative: steep, significant drop offs in production from ages 33/34 to retirement.

For f***'s sake, we're seeing that play out RIGHT NOW with Jeff Carter at age 34. And he's on a sweetheart cap circumventing deal from the last CBA. What makes you believe Kopitar will buck this trend?

Right now, there is ONE 35 year or older player in the top 50 scorers in the league (Mark Giordano, rank #38). There are only FIVE players on that same list between ages 32 and 34:

Alex Ovechkin - Age 33
Blake Wheeler - Age 32
Brent Burns - Age 33
Joe Pavelski - Age 34
Patrice Bergeron - Age 33

This is not something we're just making up. And again, there's a reason Kopitar's contract is considered untradeable.

Edit: And just to knock out the strawmen before they're constructed, Stone's deal isn't fantastic, either. It largely hinges upon what Vegas can accomplish with him in uniform over the next four years.

 

[deeshamrock]

You sure about that? because vegas just gave up one of the best prospects in the world and a second round pick for the privelage of signing Mark Stone to a kopitar contract...

Stone's 6 yrs younger a much less of a risk.
What GM is taking a center, who will be 32 yrs old next yr, whose is on the shady side of his career with 5 more years at 10M?

 

[Rusty Batch]

Where did I say Stone's contract was a great deal for Vegas?

Where did i say you said that?

 

[Rusty Batch]

You keep comparing Kopitar to Stone head to head on the basis of skill and past accomplishments without any consideration for their contracts and ages, so yes, K17 and I will focus on contracts and ages. No one doubts Kopitar is a superior player with a superior career. That's not even up for debate, nor does it have anything at all to do with the value of their contracts.

I've never claimed to know anything for a fact other than this: part of building a contending team is consideration of long term cap structure. Kopitar's final two years are a very difficult pill to swallow for any team, not because he's certain to suddenly become a terrible player in those years, but rather the chances are unfavorable for ANY 35 year old+ player being worth a cap hit that large.

It's a very different story if Kopitar is signed from ages 26 - 34, like Stone. Every measurable statistic presents a very clear narrative: steep, significant drop offs in production from ages 33/34 to retirement.

For ****'s sake, we're seeing that play out RIGHT NOW with Jeff Carter at age 34. And he's on a sweetheart cap circumventing deal from the last CBA. What makes you believe Kopitar will buck this trend?

Right now, there is ONE 35 year or older player in the top 50 scorers in the league (Mark Giordano, rank #38). There are only FIVE players on that same list between ages 32 and 34:

Alex Ovechkin - Age 33
Blake Wheeler - Age 32
Brent Burns - Age 33
Joe Pavelski - Age 34
Patrice Bergeron - Age 33

This is not something we're just making up. And again, there's a reason Kopitar's contract is considered untradeable.

Edit: And just to knock out the strawmen before they're constructed, Stone's deal isn't fantastic, either. It largely hinges upon what Vegas can accomplish with him in uniform over the next four years.

I think what your failing to understand is that even though we can all agree that players tend to decline after age 25 or so (depemding on past injuries, type of play, etc..)they decline in comparison to THEIR prior ability. So yes kopitar will decline. But that doesn't mean a different younger player is guaranteed to be better than him simply because of age. A declining Kopitar is still better than the vast majority of NHL centers and likely better than Mark Stone (who will also be declining, go look at the stats for players at age 28 compared to the same players stats at age 23ish)

Heres the other thing some of you seem to forget, Kopitars contract will stay the same and the nhl salary cap will continue to go up. Meaning as time goes on more and more centers will make more or similar money to him.