Rumor: KINGS 2018-19 Season- Luc/Rob ****Show/ Sell Everyone!! Part 3

[King'sPawn]

Maybe he’s not. I just can’t imagine some team wouldn’t give a 6th or 7th for him straight up, and I’d rather have an extra draft pick than move up ~10 spots from 130ish to 120ish. We’ll never know if he could get a pick straight up, unfortunately. Kings could’ve afforded to retain on his remaining salary this year.

I'd rather move up in the draft than get an extra 7th round pick.

The best 7th round picks the Kings have made recently* are Jordan Nolan and Nick Ebert (traded for Jack Campbell).

Some of the more recent*/successful 4th round picks are Alec Martinez and Austin Wagner.

*Recency is relative, but these are picks/trades which influenced the Kings cup wins or current team.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

I'd rather move up in the draft than get an extra 7th round pick.

The best 7th round picks the Kings have made recently* are Jordan Nolan and Nick Ebert (traded for Jack Campbell).

Some of the more recent*/successful 4th round picks are Alec Martinez and Austin Wagner.

*Recency is relative, but these are picks/trades which influenced the Kings cup wins or current team.

There is minimal difference in prospect value once you get out of the first round.

Looking to a couple examples for the Kings blurs the fact that, in general, you're likely to get about the same value of prospect whether it be in the 4th or 7th. Sometimes you strike gold with those players. Having an extra lottery ticket (i.e., draft pick) is better than moving up 10 spots. Right now, the Kings have moved from 130 to 123 with the trade based on the points percentage standings. That is negligible.

 

[King'sPawn]

There is minimal difference in prospect value once you get out of the first round.

Looking to a couple examples for the Kings blurs the fact that, in general, you're likely to get about the same value of prospect whether it be in the 4th or 7th. Sometimes you strike gold with those players. Having an extra lottery ticket (i.e., draft pick) is better than moving up 10 spots.

Mark Yanetti mentioned the Kings were targeting Connor Hellebuyck in the 5th round, but Winnipeg drafted him first.

The overall value of the picks is negligible because a vast majority of late picks turn out to be busts.

Moving up to grab someone you want is a lot more meaningful than just getting an extra ticket which, at best, may return a similar value to what you spent.

 

[Mats26]

Anderson and Phillips were drafted in the 4th round in 2017. Wagner and Moverare were also 4th rounders. Thinking Blake\Futa see some players in that range this year they like.
Habs probably offered a 6th and LA wanted a 4th so they gave them the Kubalik pick to move up.

With 2 4th rounders we can use 1 and add something to move into the 3rd round. Not sure a bunch of 5th rounders are going to help rebuild this team.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Mark Yanetti mentioned the Kings were targeting Connor Hellebuyck in the 5th round, but Winnipeg drafted him first.

The overall value of the picks is negligible because a vast majority of late picks turn out to be busts.

Moving up to grab someone you want is a lot more meaningful than just getting an extra ticket which, at best, may return a similar value to what you spent.

But this isn't a trade made to move up and grab someone the Kings want. As of today, we have no idea who would be available at 123 that the Kings like versus who would be there at 130 that the Kings like.

And if you prefer being able to move up and down to target players favored by the Kings scouts, it'd be a lot easier to do with an extra pick. Trades where, for example, a team gives up a pick in a higher round for a couple picks in later rounds (or one in the same round, one in a later round) happen a lot. Having an extra pick would make that a greater possibility if the Kings wanted to move up to get someone they liked.

Here are several examples from last year's draft floor:

• Colorado traded Nashville's 2nd-round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft (previously acquired, 58th overall) to Pittsburgh for Ottawa's 3rd-round pick in 2018 (previously acquired, 64th overall) and Pittsburgh's 5th-round pick in 2018 (146th overall).
• Arizona traded Calgary's 3rd-round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft (previously acquired, 74th overall) to Chicago for Toronto's 3rd-round pick in 2018 (previously acquired, 87th overall) and Columbus' 5th-round pick in 2018 (previously acquired, 142nd overall).
  
• Arizona traded Toronto's 3rd-round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft (previously acquired, 87th overall) to San Jose for San Jose's 4th-round pick in 2018 (114th overall) and 5th-round pick in 2018 (145th overall).
  
• Montreal traded Edmonton's 4th-round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft (previously acquired, 102nd overall) to San Jose for Vegas' 4th-round pick in 2018 (previously acquired, 123rd overall) and Florida's 5th-round pick in 2018 (previously acquired, 139th overall).
  
• Detroit traded Montreal's 6th-round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft (previously acquired, 159th overall) to Columbus for Columbus' 5th-round pick in 2019.
  
• Vancouver traded its 6th-round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft (161st overall) to Washington for Washington's 6th-round pick in 2018 (186th overall) and 6th-round pick in 2019.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Anderson and Phillips were drafted in the 4th round in 2017. Wagner and Moverare were also 4th rounders. Thinking Blake\Futa see some players in that range this year they like.
Habs probably offered a 6th and LA wanted a 4th so they gave them the Kubalik pick to move up.

With 2 4th rounders we can use 1 and add something to move into the 3rd round. Not sure a bunch of 5th rounders are going to help rebuild this team.

Relying on mid- to later-round draft picks to rebuild a team in any event is nonsensical. Practically, the Kings chances of rebuilding are no better with the 123rd pick than with the 130th pick. Most picks after the first round/second round are lottery tickets.

The Kings gained no additional assets today compared to what they had yesterday to move up and down in the draft. The pick they exchanged is a 7 spot difference right now.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Look at it this way: what is more likely to get you an additional pick in the 3rd round or higher? A pair of 4ths or a pair of 5ths? Easier to move up with those 4th rounders.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Look at it this way: what is more likely to get you an additional pick in the 3rd round or higher? A pair of 4ths or a pair of 5ths? Easier to move up with those 4th rounders.

When one of those 4ths and one of those 5ths are really only separated by the name of the round they fall in and not much else, I'd rather have the 4th and the 5th (and an extra 6th or 7th). I don't think I'm too crazy to suggest that most NHL GMs are not going to turn down a trade of (picking random draft slot in the 3rd) 87 if the return is 98 (Kings current 4th) and 130 (the Arizona 5th that was traded today) versus 87 for 98 and 123 (the Calgary 4th the Kings got today).

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Again, I will go back to the "You can't start Pena at 1st base tonight.", analogy. Good job Blake.

It would be interesting to know if Blake is getting any calls regarding Quick.

Honestly this visual will never be less funny to me

I just picture Lombardi doing it rather than Blake.

Mark Yanetti mentioned the Kings were targeting Connor Hellebuyck in the 5th round, but Winnipeg drafted him first.

The overall value of the picks is negligible because a vast majority of late picks turn out to be busts.

Moving up to grab someone you want is a lot more meaningful than just getting an extra ticket which, at best, may return a similar value to what you spent.

Absolutely, but this isn't an 'at the draft' scenario, there's way too many moving parts for a meaningful projection for 'jumping' spots at this point.

When one of those 4ths and one of those 5ths are really only separated by the name of the round they fall in and not much else, I'd rather have the 4th and the 5th (and an extra 6th or 7th).

Thank you, that's really my point, that 2 picks > 1 when you're getting into the late rounds.

 

[Lt Dan]

Not sure a bunch of 5th rounders are going to help rebuild this team.

Not with that attitude! You gotta believe.

 

[YP44]

having a lottery ticket is better than UFA thompson IMO

 

[King'sPawn]

But this isn't a trade made to move up and grab someone the Kings want. As of today, we have no idea who would be available at 123 that the Kings like versus who would be there at 130 that the Kings like.

And if you prefer being able to move up and down to target players favored by the Kings scouts, it'd be a lot easier to do with an extra pick. Trades where, for example, a team gives up a pick in a higher round for a couple picks in later rounds (or one in the same round, one in a later round) happen a lot. Having an extra pick would make that a greater possibility if the Kings wanted to move up to get someone they liked.

Here are several examples from last year's draft floor:

• Colorado traded Nashville's 2nd-round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft (previously acquired, 58th overall) to Pittsburgh for Ottawa's 3rd-round pick in 2018 (previously acquired, 64th overall) and Pittsburgh's 5th-round pick in 2018 (146th overall).
• Arizona traded Calgary's 3rd-round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft (previously acquired, 74th overall) to Chicago for Toronto's 3rd-round pick in 2018 (previously acquired, 87th overall) and Columbus' 5th-round pick in 2018 (previously acquired, 142nd overall).
  
• Arizona traded Toronto's 3rd-round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft (previously acquired, 87th overall) to San Jose for San Jose's 4th-round pick in 2018 (114th overall) and 5th-round pick in 2018 (145th overall).
  
• Montreal traded Edmonton's 4th-round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft (previously acquired, 102nd overall) to San Jose for Vegas' 4th-round pick in 2018 (previously acquired, 123rd overall) and Florida's 5th-round pick in 2018 (previously acquired, 139th overall).
  
• Detroit traded Montreal's 6th-round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft (previously acquired, 159th overall) to Columbus for Columbus' 5th-round pick in 2019.
  
• Vancouver traded its 6th-round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft (161st overall) to Washington for Washington's 6th-round pick in 2018 (186th overall) and 6th-round pick in 2019.

So if the Kings traded a 4th round pick for five 7th round picks, you'd be happier?

Because right now you're basically arguing the Kings made a bad trade to move a 7th (estimated Thompson value) + 5th for a 4th, when you'd rather have as many lottery tickets as possible.

In those examples, no 7th round picks were used to move up. 6th round picks were used to move higher up in the 6th round.

A 5th round pick was used to move up *6* spots from the 3rd to 2nd round.

If you genuinely think a 7th round pick means more to these teams than a higher chance to grab someone who they value as a 4th rounder (part of the prep teams do is identifying which players they expect to be available in different rounds) then we'll just have to disagree.

Moving up in mid rounds is infinitely better than getting an extra pick for someone you can send a development camp invite to.

 

[kovacro]

having a lottery ticket is better than UFA thompson IMO

Indeed. It’s another piece of draft currency you can use to select a kid or package with another pick to potentially move up a round.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

So if the Kings traded a 4th round pick for five 7th round picks, you'd be happier?

Why the hyperbole? And, frankly, there is such little difference between 4ths and 7ths in value that getting 5 draft picks for one when they all are similarly likely (i.e., not very likely at all, whether a 4th or a 7th) to turn in solid NHL players would be pretty good asset management.

Because right now you're basically arguing the Kings made a bad trade to move a 7th (estimated Thompson value) + 5th for a 4th, when you'd rather have as many lottery tickets as possible.

That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying I'd rather (starting from the 4th round) have the Kings 4th, the Kings 5th, the Arizona 5th, the Kings 6th, the Kings 7th, and Montreal's 7th (estimated Thompson value) than the Kings 4th, Calgary's 4th, the Kings 5th, the Kings 6th, and the Kings 7th. If having that extra pick in my scenario better afforded the Kings a chance to move up on the draft floor, then my proposed scenario is just as effective, if not more. Going into the draft with more assets to work with than fewer assets should be pretty straightforward.

In those examples, no 7th round picks were used to move up. 6th round picks were used to move higher up in the 6th round.

A 5th round pick was used to move up *6* spots from the 3rd to 2nd round.

I chose a few examples (read: SSS--small sample size) from the recent draft to generally show how having picks can be used to facilitate trades. It was not meant to be a definitive list. Here's an example from the 2017 draft if that makes you happy:

• The Nashville Predators' sixth-round pick went to the San Jose Sharks as the result of a trade on June 24, 2017, that sent San Jose and Ottawa's seventh-round picks in 2017 (205th and 214th overall) to New Jersey in exchange for this pick.

If you genuinely think a 7th round pick means more to these teams than a higher chance to grab someone who they value as a 4th rounder (part of the prep teams do is identifying which players they expect to be available in different rounds) then we'll just have to disagree.

You are making it a zero-sum proposition. As of right now, the Kings moved 7 spots. Seven. As much as they might be prepping (and it's laughable to think anyone can predict how the other 30 teams will draft the first 4 rounds), they barely changed draft positions. This comes down to a pretty basic math example: having more of something of roughly equivalent value is better than having less of something of roughly equivalent value.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Here's a recent analysis on draft pick value: https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-values-1.1119528

Again, minimal difference between 4th (especially late 4th) and 7th round.

 

[KingsFan7824]

If we go by that chart, then I think we have a good understanding of why he wasn't traded for a standalone draft pick.

Maybe nobody wanted to give up a 7th for Thompson, because they want to keep their own extra lottery ticket which isn't much different from a 4th. That's the thing about all these trade discussions; everything that you want from the other team, is what the other team wants too. If a path of logic works for the Kings, it's a good idea to apply the same path of logic to the other team in question. If a 7th isn't all that different from a 4th, why give up a late round pick for Nate Thompson in 2019? He was trade in June 2014 for a 4th and 7th in 2015, then Nick Shore last year, then 10 negligible spots or whatever in the middle of the draft this year. His value has gone down in 5 years, which is normal.

Well Blake should wait until the 11th hour of the deadline in hopes another GM will be desperate. Except, has anyone ever been desperate for Nate Thompson? Maybe Ottawa, because for whatever reason they gave Nate Thompson a NTC, but that was a free agent, not having to give up pick.

 

[regulate]

As of today we have 7 picks in the top #130. Past years:

2018 4 Kupari, Thomas, Shafigullin, Dudas
2017 5 Vilardi, JAD, Villalta, Anderson, Phillips
2016 2 Clague, Moverare
2015 3 Cernak, Dergachyov, Wagner
2014 5 Kempe, McKeown, Lintuniemi, Amadio, Johnson
2013 3 Zykov, Auger, Fasching
2012 2 Pearson, Prokhorkin

 

[KINGS17]

Mark Yanetti mentioned the Kings were targeting Connor Hellebuyck in the 5th round, but Winnipeg drafted him first.

The overall value of the picks is negligible because a vast majority of late picks turn out to be busts.

Moving up to grab someone you want is a lot more meaningful than just getting an extra ticket which, at best, may return a similar value to what you spent.

Development is even more important than the draft when you are talking about picks outside the 1st round.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

So if the Kings traded a 4th round pick for five 7th round picks, you'd be happier?

Because right now you're basically arguing the Kings made a bad trade to move a 7th (estimated Thompson value) + 5th for a 4th, when you'd rather have as many lottery tickets as possible.

In those examples, no 7th round picks were used to move up. 6th round picks were used to move higher up in the 6th round.

A 5th round pick was used to move up *6* spots from the 3rd to 2nd round.

If you genuinely think a 7th round pick means more to these teams than a higher chance to grab someone who they value as a 4th rounder (part of the prep teams do is identifying which players they expect to be available in different rounds) then we'll just have to disagree.

Moving up in mid rounds is infinitely better than getting an extra pick for someone you can send a development camp invite to.

To be blunt? Yes. Because then you could do your example--a 7th + a 5th for a 4th--and still have FOUR 7th round picks left over to move around with.

If we go by that chart, then I think we have a good understanding of why he wasn't traded for a standalone draft pick.

Maybe nobody wanted to give up a 7th for Thompson, because they want to keep their own extra lottery ticket which isn't much different from a 4th. That's the thing about all these trade discussions; everything that you want from the other team, is what the other team wants too. If a path of logic works for the Kings, it's a good idea to apply the same path of logic to the other team in question. If a 7th isn't all that different from a 4th, why give up a late round pick for Nate Thompson in 2019? He was trade in June 2014 for a 4th and 7th in 2015, then Nick Shore last year, then 10 negligible spots or whatever in the middle of the draft this year. His value has gone down in 5 years, which is normal.

Well Blake should wait until the 11th hour of the deadline in hopes another GM will be desperate. Except, has anyone ever been desperate for Nate Thompson? Maybe Ottawa, because for whatever reason they gave Nate Thompson a NTC, but that was a free agent, not having to give up pick.

I think it's worth the 'risk' given we essentially got nothing anyway. Maybe they won't be desperate, but there may be a minor bidding war, or someone loses a 4C and needs an experienced replacement and they're willing to move more than 10 paltry spots. At face value, it's Blake getting rid of the asset wayyyy too early...

...but a lot of the other points in this thread have helped with perspective that I was seeing too much red to identify, like freeing up a roster spot for impending returns, doing a solid for Thompson, etc.

 

[Bandit]

Man, must be a slow news day. A LOT of hand wringing about a late round pick.

 

[Choralone]

Nate Thompson for a day-old falafel is good value as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Man, must be a slow news day. A LOT of hand wringing about a late round pick.

I was holding out hope that Rob Blake would stand firm and acquire a first round pick for Nate. Worst GM ever.

 

[KingsFan7824]

I think it's worth the 'risk' given we essentially got nothing anyway. Maybe they won't be desperate, but there may be a minor bidding war, or someone loses a 4C and needs an experienced replacement and they're willing to move more than 10 paltry spots. At face value, it's Blake getting rid of the asset wayyyy too early...

...but a lot of the other points in this thread have helped with perspective that I was seeing too much red to identify, like freeing up a roster spot for impending returns, doing a solid for Thompson, etc.

I would say freeing up a roster spot is a choice. They're at 13 F, including Carter who is too hurt to play, and Brodzinski isn't off IR yet. They've been going with a 22 man roster for most of the season though. Save on the cap that way. Also save on money that way. Could easily have sent Amadio or Wagner down if it had been needed. But, Thompson probably wasn't bringing anything back if that was the return 2 weeks before the deadline, so 6 of one...

 

[Dexter Sinister]

So now that we know the value of Nate Thompson, what is the supposed value of Hagelin?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

So now that we know the value of Nate Thompson, what is the supposed value of Hagelin?

Hagelin and a 3rd for TBs 2nd.