Kasperi Kapanen (Aberg/J Lindgren) Traded to Pittsburgh (15OV/Hallander/E Rod/Warf to Toronto)

[Empoleon8771]

You realize that these aren't fans you are arguing with. These are individuals that are getting paid by major sports organizations to combine video and analytics into digestible segments for you.

Okay? That doesn't invalidate what I said.

I can change career fields and go into hockey analytics, would my opinion hold any more weight at that point?

 

[Jesse]

I said it's nonsense to say a guy with top-6 production and decent PK upside isn't a replacement level player based solely on analytics. And yes, I'm 100% willing to just say that your data sucks if it has Rodrigues as better than Kapanen. Stop pretending that analytics in hockey are even remotely well developed enough to be able to judge players based solely on them. You are misusing analytics if you think you can make an argument based solely on them.

McCurdy's chart calls him a "good 3rd liner", that is the fair analysis of where he's at. Saying he's been "below replacement level for 3 of 4 years" is downright bullshit, you're using shitty stats if the stats say that.

It actually just sounds like you don't understand what the term replacement level is. Because I share the same opinion as Micah does, but you're upset over the verbiage. This is a third line talent being shoehorned into top six minutes. I don't make up what replacement level is anymore than I just magically create on-ice results out of thin air. You don't like what the data says? Neither do I, but I'm willing to accept that a player being an absolute black hole defensively is a major problem and cancels out a lot of the good done offensively. You still haven't even discussed that yet that I have seen.

As for PK value, he's in the 25th percentile of NHL forwards on the power-play and the penalty-kill independently. Again, not what I'd refer to as encouraging.

I also watched Kapanen slide down the depth chart in Toronto for the qualifying series. I'll be posting video of that. Not analytics. We'll talk about the defensive issues on tape. They're noticeable like that, being in the 12th percentile of forwards and all.

 

[MrBrightside]

I have watched countless hours of Kapanen playing (I live in Toronto with a Leafs fan). He is all tools no toolbox. His hockey IQ is extremely low relative to his speed, and it's what's held him back from being a proper top six forward. I do not think he's a good fit with Crosby or Malkin.

That sounds exactly like the 2016 Bryan Rust scouting report.

 

[Dangles78]

I'm obviously not a fan of the value. I think it's rough giving up 15 OV + Hallander and I'm a fan of Kapanen. The real question though is does this REALLY move the needle for the Pens? Probably not, which is why it's such a head scratcher. The value in a vacuum isn't going to crush the Penguins but I just feel like those assets could have been used better elsewhere.

 

[Andy99]

I can't agree with this. We have three forwards in our top six that couple potentially put up 30 goals. Who is better than that?

Sid and G are declining as goal scorers as they age and they’ve always been pass first players who don’t shoot a lot...Jake is the only one imo and who knows what’ll happen with him with his shoulder...I think the top 6 could use a Pastrnak for sure...

 

[Jesse]

Okay? That doesn't invalidate what I said.

I can change career fields and go into hockey analytics, would my opinion hold any more weight at that point?

It wouldn't. Your opinion holds weight right now. Just as much as mine does. The fact that our methodology isn't the same or we don't agree doesn't make your opinion invalid. I post here for these kinds of discussion. I'll learn something in the discourse. I hope someone else does too, you or otherwise. This is just hockey talk, we aren't saving lives here.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It actually just sounds like you don't understand what the term replacement level is. Because I share the same opinion as Micah does, but you're upset over the verbiage. This is a third line talent being shoehorned into top six minutes. I don't make up what replacement level is anymore than I just magically create on-ice results out of thin air. You don't like what the data says? Neither do I, but I'm willing to accept that a player being an absolute black hole defensively is a major problem and cancels out a lot of the good done offensively. You still haven't even discussed that yet that I have seen.

As for PK value, he's in the 25th percentile of NHL forwards on the power-play and the penalty-kill independently. Again, not what I'd refer to as encouraging.

I also watched Kapanen slide down the depth chart in Toronto for the qualifying series. I'll be posting video of that. Not analytics. We'll talk about the defensive issues on tape. They're noticeable like that, being in the 12th percentile of forwards and all.

I'm using baseball's definition of "replacement level", which is the widely used way that "replacement level" is used. If you're going to use common phrases in ways that they don't mean, you should probably clarify that.

I wouldn't be calling bullshit if you would have said "Kapanen's a good 3rd liner". I called bullshit on you saying he's been below replacement level for 3 of 4 years, based on what "replacement level" is widely used as. To me, "replacement level" means "extra forward or 7th D" based on how it's used in the MLB.

 

[Gurglesons]

That sounds exactly like the 2016 Bryan Rust scouting report.

I don't see how anyone watched Bryan Rust in 2016 and thought he was all tools no toolbox.

 

[Peat]

If we look from 13-18 for the last couple decades i doubt 50% are better. Im willing to be proven wrong on that point but id be willing to drop a small bet on it.

And if the do reach D+2 theyre certainly not finished products.

No, but they're on ELCs. They don't have to be finished products to be better contributors for the payslip than Kapanen at that point.

And Kapanen isn't a finished product either. There's a decent chance he regresses or never regains past peaks. The very limited sample I looked at of just 15OA, I'd say 3 are clear better, and there's 2 where the full tale is yet untold but I'd bet on at least one being better unless Kapanen breaks out big.

 

[MrBrightside]

Much as the disastrous JJ signing can be traced back to Sullivan not liking and/or not wanting to play Ian Cole and Oleksiak, this kind of goes back to giving away Kahun. Had they not done that, this isn't necessary.

 

[Breakers]

If the pick was 25-31....... ok yeah

but 15?
That’s exactly where you find gems in drafts from GMs who overthink things in the Top 10.

imean technically the barzal pick was Pittsburgh’s as well.

Mcavoy
Chychrun
Barzal
Connor
Larkin
Sanheim

 

[Gurglesons]

Sid and G are declining as goal scorers as they age and they’ve always been pass first players who don’t shoot a lot...Jake is the only one imo and who knows what’ll happen with him with his shoulder...I think the top 6 could use a Pastrnak for sure...

lol. The top six could use a Rocket Richard winner? No shit.

Zucker has paced at 30 goals over 17 games here. I have no reason why you are so down on him.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

think that Mario, Burkle & Morehouse Said to JR Ahhh f*** it do whatever you want

We're talking about a team and GM that signed JJ to a 5 year 15 million dollar deal so I'm gonna go with yes on this one.

 

[SEALBound]

That 2018 Penguins draft lol

Addison (traded)
Hallander (traded)
Almeida (ECHLer)
Gorman (F level prospect)

And yet we have Jason Zucker and Kapanen, two top 6 wings to show for it. Show me any other team with two top 6 wings from the 2018 draft.

They might not even keep one of the assets from this stupid deal.

Max contracts is a thing. We are 48/50. So if you trade Murray or Horny or whoever, you can take back more than one player. You do need wiggle room in a variety of places when considering trades, not just cap space. Perhaps that why Aberg was included.

Honestly this makes the Kahun trade even dumber, too. Unless I'm missing something?

Kap is a better player than Kahun but like... by how much? Seems like you just kinda shat a bunch of assets only to end up a half a foot further along than you started.

You don't assemble a winning teams by collecting only good players (I know that sounds odd). Those good players have to work with the others you have on the team. Kahun was decent, no doubt, but his fit with the rest of the team was marginal at best. He was a fringer top 6 player who worked a tad bit with Malkin and Rust but you could see the shakiness. They wanted a stable top 6 RW for Sid and they got that with Sheary who was good for us. Buffalo wanted a player.

I don't think the discussion is Kahun vs Kapanen in a vacuum. It's more, which one works best for us? Well we know Kahun is a marginal at best fit...so let's try Kapanen. At the end of the day, Maatta was costing us $4mil and no longer needed. A season later, we basically have $4mil in cap space and Maatta still has marginal value. ERod was depth, nothing more.

They probably weren't going to tender Rodrigues anyway, so it comes down to Kapanen for a 1st and Hallander. Not saying that's a good deal but a lot of this is noise.

It is. I think the deal is more Kappy+Lindgren for 1st+Hallander. Basically a prospect swap and a 1st for Kapanen. Its not home run value but we didn't strike out swinging at 4 balls either.

So, help me out, which part of the trade besides the pick am I supposed to lose my shit over?

Lol, right? I guess it would be those that hate themselves enough twisting numbers and stats enough to say that Kapanen is a worse player than ERod and that the 1st was Barzal.

I said it's nonsense to say a guy with top-6 production and decent PK upside isn't a replacement level player based solely on analytics. And yes, I'm 100% willing to just say that your data sucks if it has Rodrigues as better than Kapanen. Stop pretending that analytics in hockey are even remotely well developed enough to be able to judge players based solely on them. You are misusing analytics if you think you can make an argument based solely on them.

McCurdy's chart calls him a "good 3rd liner", that is the fair analysis of where he's at. Saying he's been "below replacement level for 3 of 4 years" is downright bullshit, you're using shitty stats if the stats say that.

Sorry Jesse, I have to side with Emp on this as I have been holding similar viewpoints since the inception of adv stats. I am VERY hard on Ryan Wilson here for similar reasons.

 

[OswaldBates]

We're talking about a team and GM that signed JJ to a 5 year 15 million dollar deal so I'm gonna go with yes on this one.

well there ya go Bitch at them ! Kthxbye

 

[Icarium]

I have watched countless hours of Kapanen playing (I live in Toronto with a Leafs fan). He is all tools no toolbox. His hockey IQ is extremely low relative to his speed, and it's what's held him back from being a proper top six forward. I do not think he's a good fit with Crosby or Malkin.

Well, you can say much the same about James Neal (though his best asset is his shot, not speed) and he was pretty good with Malkin, so who knows.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

No, but they're on ELCs. They don't have to be finished products to be better contributors for the payslip than Kapanen at that point.

And Kapanen isn't a finished product either. There's a decent chance he regresses or never regains past peaks. The very limited sample I looked at of just 15OA, I'd say 3 are clear better, and there's 2 where the full tale is yet untold but I'd bet on at least one being better unless Kapanen breaks out big.

15oa is too limited with too much variance. I will do a quick rundown in a few. See where it shakes out.

 

[JackFr]

I'm using baseball's definition of "replacement level", which is the widely used way that "replacement level" is used. If you're going to use common phrases in ways that they don't mean, you should probably clarify that.

I wouldn't be calling bullshit if you would have said "Kapanen's a good 3rd liner". I called bullshit on you saying he's been below replacement level for 3 of 4 years, based on what "replacement level" is widely used as. To me, "replacement level" means "extra forward or 7th D" based on how it's used in the MLB.

Can I point out that Micah retracted the tweet you're hinging your case on



A guy who has very bad playdriving numbers and a merely above average shot doesn't profile as a "good third liner"

 

[Jag68Sid87]

I have watched countless hours of Kapanen playing (I live in Toronto with a Leafs fan). He is all tools no toolbox. His hockey IQ is extremely low relative to his speed, and it's what's held him back from being a proper top six forward. I do not think he's a good fit with Crosby or Malkin.

Oh but you are wrong, you see. Mike Sullivan hockey, or "how we want to play" to use JR's quote, is brainless north-south hockey with speed and nothing else. Kapanen is perfect for what they want to do.

It won't win them anything, but hey at least they are following their own FLAWED script.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Ok now I'm on the fire JR AND SULLIVAN wagon.


f*** this. What an awful trade.

 

[Tacitus Kilgore]

Lol I can see our attempts to offload Murray will include the return of a 1st now. Which on it's face makes sense, but seeing as how we got here; the asset management has been horrid

 

[ChaosAgent]

Can you know-nothings stop proposing trades to acquire ex-Penguins?

Such basic yinzers, spoiled fans.

Thankfully we got Jim Rutherford and that isn't at all how he operates.

 

[JRS91]

You're overrating the living shit out of draft picks.

This team isn't going to be good after Crosby and Malkin unless they get multiple Giroux like hits with those picks. The MIGHT have been good after Crosby and Malkin retired, but they probably wouldn't because scoring a Giroux caliber talent with that caliber of pick is an awesome haul.

What are you talking about?

Barzal was a 16th overall pick in 2015. Kyle Connor was the 17th overall pick that year as well. Brock Boeser was the 23rd overall pick. Charlie McAvoy was a 14th overall pick in 2016, Suzuki was a 13th overall pick in 2017. You can definitely land talent in that middle of the road spot. Sure, you're not going to land another Crosby or Malkin, but the idea that "Oh it's just a 70 point player, who cares?" is ludicrous.

 

[Gurglesons]

Okay? That doesn't invalidate what I said.

I can change career fields and go into hockey analytics, would my opinion hold any more weight at that point?

No, but acting like Jesse and JFresh just sit around mindlessly reading analytics is a big disservice for the coverage they provide.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Lol I can see our attempts to offload Murray will include the return of a 1st now. Which on it's face makes sense, but seeing as how we got here; the asset management has been horrid

Kapanen isn't worth a first. And JR unloaded literally nothing and added more salary. Unless his next f***ing moves are moving Bjugstad, JJ and Murray I'm pretty f***ing livid mate.

Watch his stupid ass trade Rust. At which point I don't even know if I want to post anymore with how ridiculous this team has become.

 

[Gurglesons]

What are you talking about?

Barzal was a 16th overall pick in 2015. Kyle Connor was the 17th overall pick that year as well. Brock Boeser was the 23rd overall pick. Charlie McAvoy was a 14th overall pick in 2016, Suzuki was a 13th overall pick in 2017. You can definitely land talent in that middle of the road spot. Sure, you're not going to land another Crosby or Malkin, but the idea that "Oh it's just a 70 point player, who cares?" is ludicrous.

Not to mention this draft is loaded with top ten forward prospects.

 

[OswaldBates]

Ok now I'm on the fire JR AND SULLIVAN wagon.


f*** this. What an awful trade.

UMMM How bout Morehouse, Mario & Burkle ?