Kasperi Kapanen (Aberg/J Lindgren) Traded to Pittsburgh (15OV/Hallander/E Rod/Warf to Toronto)

[JRS91]

Well that's good to know that players can't be better than what they were in their 22-23 year old seasons.

Most players hit their "prime" when they're 26-28 years old. How much longer do you think Crosby and Malkin are going to be around and playing at a high level? I can't wait for Kapanen to finally hit his stride and be a 30 goal scorer playing with absolutely zero prospects because we keep trading our first round picks! What a steal!

Saying one thing and doing is another. Kessel was brought here to be a top-six winger and where did he find himself?

 

[HandshakeLine]

And no 1st round pick next season

Meh, we still got a goalie to trade. And possibly Letang too

 

[bambamcam4ever]

nah, I think Sully will start:

Jake-Sid-Kapanen
Zucker -G-Rust

just because he’s stubborn and wants those lines to work even though we know L2 doesn’t really and then make some changes from there ...

I hope I'm wrong, but Kapanen is far too dumb to play with Crosby.

 

[deakka]

I have a really hard time to imagine Kapanen was the best we could get for 15OA I'm a deep draft AND Hallander.

For gods sake at least wait around a bit and see if some legit top6 wing gets available. Or a good 3c. Its not even close to the draft yet.

We just blew our load on someone we dont even need and still have big holes in our lineup

 

[Jesse]

So you're admitting that saying he has been below replacement level in 3 of 4 years is bad?

We can dance back and forth like this all day. You focus on points-per-60 only. I'll include points-per-60 along with the other areas of the game that are drastically important, like not being a black hole defensively. 5v5 points fluctuate based on context, usage, statistical whims, variance, and all that great stuff, foundational behaviors tend to remain the same. If you wanna buy on production while everything says the production isn't sustainable or lacks value because of inherent defensive issues, that's cool. But if the bottom of the barrel falls out or you run into new issues in your own zone, you have to lie in that bed.

Value is subjective. But the value given to acquire this player under the guise that he's a boost to the top six? I don't see a boost. Kapanen is in the 65th percentile of forwards for goals-for per 60 over the last two years. That's great and firmly in the top six. What about the rest of the performance? He's in the 12th percentile of forwards in even-strength defensive metrics. He's in the 20th percentile of forwards for his ability to mitigate quality chances. He's not good on special teams, either, so there's no added value beyond even-strength.

When you look at the entirety of performance, Evan Rodrigues was a more consistent player at even-strength. For shits and gigs, based on Dom L.'s War Data, Evan Rodrigues had a WAR of .09 this year. Kapanen came in at .036. More value in Rodrigues in your lineup than Kapanen, but I'm guessing the retort here is back to the data just sucks.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Most players hit their "prime" when they're 26-28 years old. How much longer do you think Crosby and Malkin are going to be around and playing at a high level? I can't wait for Kapanen to finally hit his stride and be a 30 goal scorer playing with absolutely zero prospects because we keep trading our first round picks! What steal!

Who gives a crap what happens after Crosby and Malkin retire? This team is going to suck. The idea that they shouldn't go all-in now so they can be less bad after Crosby and Malkin leave is just dumb.

Kapanen's going to be a 25-25 player at minimum with the Penguins regularly.

Saying one thing and doing is another. Kessel was brought here to be a top-six winger and where did he find himself?

Kapanen also plays a style that has meshed with Crosby and Malkin in the past. Kessel not so much. Kessel also spent a shitload of time on Malkin's wing.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Gonna be tons of hustle but no finish next year.

It will take me back to the days of Konstantin Koltsov. Hockeyhorse all star.

 

[Jules Winnfield]

We could’ve probably got Johnny Hockey for not much more than this garbage.

 

[Gurglesons]

I have a really hard time to imagine Kapanen was the best we could get for 15OA I'm a deep draft AND Hallander.

For gods sake at least wait around a bit and see if some legit top6 wing gets available. Or a good 3c. Its not even close to the draft yet.

We just blew our load on someone we dont even need and still have big holes in our lineup

Once again I assume they think Lindgren can potentially fill the bottom RD role and they've said they think Kapanen is a top six RW which is something we did need.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

So, help me out, which part of the trade besides the pick am I supposed to lose my shit over?

The part where we emptied our clip on a winger who didn't work in the Leafs' top 6 and is an unproven commodity on the PP.

 

[HandshakeLine]

If we trade Kapanen for Kessel with salary retained again, I’m gonna die laughing.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think it's far more likely Kapanen ends up on the 3rd line full-time than it is that he works with Sid long-term. Hope I'm wrong, but he seems too squirrelly for Sid.

Could end up working with Geno, though that means Rust on either Sid's wing, or on the 3rd line, and if we're not moving Hornqvist, that means Rust with Sid and Jake, since Hornqvist and Sid together is a complete non-starter.

 

[Andy99]

I hope I'm wrong, but Kapanen is far too dumb to play with Crosby.

yeah but he’s going to be tried there first because of the Geno Rust connection....when he doesn’t work out, Sully is going to go:

Jake-Sid-Rust
Zucker-G-Horny
X-X-Kapanen

 

[SEALBound]

Erod had a 25 point season in 17-18 in 48 games.

then a 29 point season in 18-19

I mean that's a useful NHL player. thats thats solid 4th line production.

And there are a million available 4th line players available for cheaper. ERod is not an impact player for us.

There’ll be more moves. We just have to hope they kind of offset the value here.

And I think there will be. I don't see how there can't be. I think what we need to look at is starting lineup for the next season. Off season moves and signings are always tough because you get months to agonize over what you don't like. Look at Tanev. There were month long crusades here against the guy and he quickly made everyone eat their shorts here.

Kapanen is a little different though as he is a top 6 capable guy. It's not like this was a bottom 6 guy we just gave up a 1st for. This is no different than acquiring a Kessel, Perron, or Zucker. Kappy is a young, skilled, top 6 forward. We hope the 15ov turns into a Kapanen. Except Kapanen is a help now guy not help in 3-4 years guy. The window is two years. Kapanen at 24, 25, 26 helps now more than the 15ov or Hallander.

Again, can't reiterate enough. We were the 7th best team in the league this year. A few playoff flops doesn't mean that we're suddenly past being a contender. We have as good a chance as anyone to win a cup. We really do.

7th best and we just beefed up the top 6. Sucks for 5 years from now but...those are the chances you take.

Personally, I also think everyone including myself is upset about the 1st being included because we have this impression it COULD turn into a Barzal or Karlsson. But there's a much higher chance that it won't. Also if the following is true then I get why we traded Hallander

Prospect mystique. If you look though, Barzal was in 2015 and he didn't become an impact player until 2018-2019 really. That's outside the window JR is planning for. Would be nice to have a Barzal level prospect in the pipeline though. That said, more moves could be coming.

I'm just afraid for the rebuild in 2-3 years it's gonna be a long one

We've been a perennial cup (not just playoffs...STANLEY CUP) contender for 12 years...in 3 years, it will be a 15 year window we had. I'd rather have swung for the fences rather than go down looking or trying for the walk to get on base. Not many teams can look at a 15 year window and see 3 cups, maybe and hopefully 4, with two generational talents.

Heard this tune before.

Think it's called "The Pittsburgh media conveniently besmirching a player after the fact to make a deal sound better than it is, citing factors that they either dismiss or ignore in other contexts"

Admittedly, it's not a very catchy title.

Really though.

How often did we hear after last draft that people were making too big a deal out of skating?

I don't think you should be volleying shots at the messenger when you hear something about a player you don't like. It's never a good idea to be "besmirching" a player in your organization. That's never good for anyone. We see that from time to time around the league and while it's fun to watch from the sidelines, you don't want to be reading that inside your own organization. If he didn't get invited over, there could very well be a reason for it. Just because you like Hallander (and don't get me wrong, I did too) doesn't mean you can assign malice any time a journo or scout says there's an issue with the kid.

Say he didn't get traded and he stays in Sweden and it comes out that he didn't get invited over here because of his skating and the org's general belief that he wouldn't make the NHL. Would that make it better or worse?

What if Poulin is too impressive in camp to send down? where do we put him? feels like we have so many wingers.

There isn't a rule that says we can't make more moves. Jesus life must be tough for some of you.

 

[Empoleon8771]

We can dance back and forth like this all day. You focus on points-per-60 only. I'll include points-per-60 along with the other areas of the game that are drastically important, like not being a black hole defensively. 5v5 points fluctuate based on context, usage, statistical whims, variance, and all that great stuff, foundational behaviors tend to remain the same. If you wanna buy on production while everything says the production isn't sustainable or lacks value because of inherent defensive issues, that's cool. But if the bottom of the barrel falls out or you run into new issues in your own zone, you have to lie in that bed.

Value is subjective. But the value given to acquire this player under the guise that he's a boost to the top six? I don't see a boost. Kapanen is in the 65th percentile of forwards for goals-for per 60 over the last two years. That's great and firmly in the top six. What about the rest of the performance? He's in the 12th percentile of forwards in even-strength defensive metrics. He's in the 20th percentile of forwards for his ability to mitigate quality chances. He's not good on special teams, either, so there's no added value beyond even-strength.

When you look at the entirety of performance, Evan Rodrigues was a more consistent player at even-strength. For shits and gigs, based on Dom L.'s War Data, Evan Rodrigues had a WAR of .09 this year. Kapanen came in at .036. More value in Rodrigues in your lineup than Kapanen, but I'm guessing the retort here is back to the data just sucks.

I said it's nonsense to say a guy with top-6 production and decent PK upside isn't a replacement level player based solely on analytics. And yes, I'm 100% willing to just say that your data sucks if it has Rodrigues as better than Kapanen. Stop pretending that analytics in hockey are even remotely well developed enough to be able to judge players based solely on them. You are misusing analytics if you think you can make an argument based solely on them.

McCurdy's chart calls him a "good 3rd liner", that is the fair analysis of where he's at. Saying he's been "below replacement level for 3 of 4 years" is downright bullshit, you're using shitty stats if the stats say that.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

Okay, some time to think. Opinion hasn't changed much, I still think JR paid for what he hopes Kapanen will be rather than what Kapanen is...but if things fall into place he absolutely can be a better version of Pascal Dupuis on Sid's line...or even Hagelin with Malkin (I don't want to praise Kasperi's shooting, he's been shooting at the logo since I saw him play as a 15 year-old, but compared to Hagelin he's a damn sharpshooter). He's pretty purely a RWer, which should allow Sullivan to play everyone in their best position instead of forcing someone to play their off-wing...not something you should be paying a premium for either, but suffice to say this team did not need another left-handed winger who is best on the left wing and Kapanen is most definitely a north-south right-handed right winger that should fit into this line-up quite nicely.

We paid too much. Outright. Hållander shouldn't have been involved and I say this after having the feeling all week that his days were numbered with the organization. The organization has talked about him in less glowing terms lately and the scouting reports I've read from third parties were painting a less glowing image than I had before...but we're still talking about a kid who just turned 20 and likely won't play a game in North America for another year. There's a ton of time for Hållander to get back on track, but when this organization sours on a player they seem to really sour on them. The Sundqvist comparison will likely remain, but at least in this scenario Hållander is unlikely to be an impact player within a couple years even if he develops as hoped. Again, this feels like terrible asset management...souring on a prospect is one thing, but trading a recent 2nd rounder with a good stat line should have more value than it did in this deal unless you're either overthinking things or get tunnel vision about acquiring one specific guy.

Either way my expectations of Hållander had taken a step back and if he was progressing to where he was looking like a potential Hörnqvist heir apparent I can't imagine JR would include him so easily given how incredibly rare that skill set is. There's just so much time for this to go wrong for us, but if whatever had muted the way people were talking about him is something harder to fix (such as skating, which is hard to really judge from highlights that rarely have him covering a ton of ground). The 15th should have been more than enough for Kapanen, so regardless of Hållander's trending his inclusion in this deal is extremely off-putting. I can't help but wonder if JR would have been so easily swayed to deal him if not for the pandemic keeping him in Europe for another year. It shouldn't, but he's clearly in win at all costs mode right now.

Honestly the worst thing about the way this deal makes me feel right now is that it finally kicked in that we may be running out of time with Malkin...and I don't mean in a trading sense, I've always said the only way Geno gets traded is if he asked to be traded somewhere specific and that everything else is just noise, but I mean that his contract is up in 2 years and him ending his career in Russia was always an extreme possibility. I have no clue how Malkin intends to spend his 35+ years in hockey other than there being a damn near guarantee he plays his final game with Metallurg Magnitogorsk. If we're set to lose Malkin for nothing (Geno more than earned that NMC and thus ultimately controls his own destiny) in 2 years, then going all-out for those 2 years makes a little sense. I'll be damned if I call good asset management or a wise use of limited assets, but I do somewhat get it. If Geno does move on after 21-22...this kind of asset management is going to make the rebuild all the more difficult, but all of this goes away with a win. It's just going to be a fight to even make the playoffs in such a loaded division going forward so I'm not exactly loving our odds. I don't think anyone would be that surprised if Sid & Geno have one more good run in them...it just feels increasingly unlikely that'll happen with the moves we keep making.

On a random note...how many complete non-assets named Lindgren have come and gone through the Penguins organization these past couple decades? It's probably only like 3 or something like that, but it feels like every couple years we get a random minor leaguer named Lindgren with limited potential.



As for Evan Rodrigues...I never liked that acquisition because his $2m contract meant him being non-tendered was a very real possibility even before the flat cap situation hit. I'm not going to say anything too bad about Rodrigues, but at his tender price he's infinitely replaceable. I don't care how much the coach hated Kahun, you don't trade a young player who can produce for a spare forward rental. The fact that Rodrigues's tenure with the Penguins played out pretty much as I expected doesn't fill me with confidence. We took a flawed asset and traded it for a flawed asset, then traded that flawed asset for something of little value, and now the something of little value gets included in a already bad trade because he was just going to be non-tendered anyway. I didn't like Kahun as just about everyone else on this board, but he has talent you can work with. Rodrigues is just depth at double the cost you want your depth to cost. It'll be interesting to see if Toronto tenders him or not. Given their cap situation that seems unwise, but I'm assuming there won't be a Tanev or Blueger keeping him off the fourth line there.

Sullivan's handling of the third line in the playoffs was criminal and Rodrigues probably wouldn't have been the magic fix there...but the fact Rodrigues didn't get into a game sealed his fate for being non-tendered a second time. Lafferty playing ahead of him, even when Sully clearly had no faith in him and tied him to the bench for half the game, pretty much said it all.

 

[JRS91]

Who gives a crap what happens after Crosby and Malkin retire? This team is going to suck. The idea that they shouldn't go all-in now so they can be less bad after Crosby and Malkin leave is just dumb.

Kapanen's going to be a 25-25 player at minimum with the Penguins regularly.

Yeah who cares about the future? Bring on the X generation 2.0! I loved watching Dick Tarnstrom lead the team in points.

Kapanen also plays a style that has meshed with Crosby and Malkin in the past. Kessel not so much. Kessel also spent a shitload of time on Malkin's wing.

Not in the playoffs, he mostly played with Bonino. If I remember correctly, our second line for most of the playoffs was Hagelin, Malkin and Hornqvist. Kessel was constantly bumped between Bonino and Malkin during the regular season. Once Bonino left, he played with Malkin regularly because he probably demanded it and they had no other choice. I can't care what coach you are, you aren't putting Kessel with Greg McKegg. I would be shocked if Kapanen didn't bounce around the lineup in 2021.

 

[OswaldBates]

I mean, Jesse does the hockey breakdown thing as a career and is about the most trusted source for that sort of thing among Pens commentators, and I'm willing to bet he's seen Hallander more than the overwhelming majority of those here.

Pretty good reasons to give some weight to his opinion on a prospect.

& I think the Pens Scouts saw him a lot more than Jesse did too SO I think give some weight to their opinion or NO?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah who cares about the future? Bring on the X generation 2.0! I loved watching Dick Tarnstrom lead the team in points.

Yes, because the alternative of being the Minnesota Wild is so much better than bottoming out and hoping you get high draft picks.

Face it, the right way to prioritize this team is to go all-in now and them bottom out after Crosby and Malkin retire. This team isn't winning a damn thing after Crosby and Malkin leave, trying to plan for the future when the best case scenario for the future is "painful mediocrity" doesn't make any sense.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Ha... trying to imagine a line with Zucker/Malkin/Kap

Sounds like a surefire recipe for launching empties at my TV in frustration.

 

[Malkinstheman]

 

[Gurglesons]

Yeah who cares about the future? Bring on the X generation 2.0! I loved watching Dick Tarnstrom lead the team in points.

I mean, keeping picks over players would be the X Generation tbh.

 

[Andy99]

we already lack shooting talent in the top 6...I would have liked a much better goal scorer for that price...

 

[JackFr]

It has been repeatedly shown that a player's prime is actually when they're around 23.

I hate this trade from an analytical perspective (obviously), but I don't like the "eye test" fit either. Kapanen is speedy and has an above-average shot, but he is dumb as bricks. He hands and brain just cannot keep up with his feet, and it's gonna drive Sid absolutely nuts if they play together.

 

[Gurglesons]

No need to post the tweet when @Jesse is in here dunking on some of us lol.