Proposal: Kapanen for FLA 2017 1st rd pick

[Sundinisagod]

Classic HF overvaluation of the almighty 1st round pick.

 

[Pablo El Perro]

Not knocking the kid, but I don't think Kapanen has more of a shot at cracking the Panthers lineup than he does the Leafs. Best off holding onto him. He's the kind of skilled prospect that just needs to be given a bit more time to develop.

 

[Batrous]

The leafs know the importance of being patient with their prospects. He put up good numbers in the AHL as a 19 year old and will only be bigger, stronger and faster this year so moving him for what will probably be an end of first round pick (last 10 area of the first round) makes no sense.

Patience, it can take as long as 5 years for some forward prospects to be NHL ready.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I think people (not Leaf fans) are afraid of the idea of a part of the Kessel trade (Kap) becoming good. Kap has looked solid so far this preseason, i'm willing to let him progress.

I hope this isn't it but I've noticed an irrational hate on Kapp and blatant lack of knowledge or denial of it.

 

[Nizdizzle]

Not knocking the kid, but I don't think Kapanen has more of a shot at cracking the Panthers lineup than he does the Leafs. Best off holding onto him. He's the kind of skilled prospect that just needs to be given a bit more time to develop.

This is exactly what the Leafs need to/are going to do with Kapanen. He is a guy that will be seasoned in the minors and come in when contracts like Greening, Michalek, Lupul come off the books and the current crop of rookies (Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Soshnikov, Hyman, Brown) settle down either on the roster or as busts.

 

[Halla]

You've literally gotta be kidding me. Why do leaf fans, and I mean only leaf fans of all the teams in the league, vastly overrate certain players? Sorry but no GM in history of the game would trade a 1st for Kapanen.

E.g. Kapanen is an elite A+ prospect, Jake Gardiner is an absolute surefire top-4 defender with huge upside and he isn't -50 every season (just pretend).

No gm in history would trade a 1st for a 2014 1st that has looked great this year.
yeah, you gotta be kidding me is right.

I think you are blinded by leafs hate, but gardiner is well established as a 30+ pt 2nd pairing dman with high level advanced stats. the fact that you are using +/- probably says enough to your knowledge of the game though....

 

[A1LeafNation]

Kapanen could be the new JVR Ina couple years

 

[Halla]

Player A: 2014, 16th overall. 39pts in 71 combined AHL games last year (0.55ppg)

Player B: 2014, 22nd overall. 33pts in 58 combined AHL games (0.57ppg)

Player C: 2014, 29th overall. 33 points in 68 combined games (0.49ppg)

Player D: 2014, 33rd overall. 28 points in 65 games (0.43ppg)

A: Milano
B: Kapanen
C: Kempe
D: Barbashev


yeah Kapanen is doing just fine, he isnt getting moved for a 25ish OA pick. look for a breakout year this year vs a rookie class that is his age.
Is he as good as Nylander/Pastrnak/Vrana? No. Has he outperformed just about every other forward from his draft class in the AHL thus far? yup

 

[Toronto makebeleifs]

Kapanen could be the new JVR Ina couple years

Nah, better shot and edges, not as good defensively. Think more along the lines of jussi jokinen. I'd be happy if he has a couple of 25+ goal seasons in his career, but based on what I've seen so far he should be a 2nd line depth scorer capable of 15-45 each season. Which happens to be pretty solid for a late 1st.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

You've literally gotta be kidding me. Why do leaf fans, and I mean only leaf fans of all the teams in the league, vastly overrate certain players? Sorry but no GM in history of the game would trade a 1st for Kapanen.

E.g. Kapanen is an elite A+ prospect, Jake Gardiner is an absolute surefire top-4 defender with huge upside and he isn't -50 every season (just pretend).

Best part of this post is the E.g at the end followed up by hypotheticals.

 

[kelsier]

You clearly have something against him. Kapanen was a 22 overall pick, Rantanen went 10th overall in a stacked draft. Why are you comparing them in the first place? Is there something written in the GM handbook that says in order to be worth a first round pick, you have to be as good as Rantanen?

If you take Kapanen's season last year with an unbiased approach, you'd see that for a 19 year old underager in the AHL, he did very well. If you try to make some nonsensical conclusion that the only way for Kapanen to be successful is to be Rantanen then you're just making ridiculous expectations.

People seem to read into posts whatever way they see most fit. Throwing out an example doesn't equal to comparing prospects, jeez.

Now as for Kapanen, I don't see him as the type of a player that would be an ideal bottom six guy. He's not going to beat guys with his physicality and he doesn't even usually seem willing to put himself out there (which is maybe wise if you want to avoid injuries). Now if he doesn't break into top 6 role looking down the future, what kind of value does he hold? Aside from that, I haven't seen any hint of that "warrior spirit" his father used to have, doing everything for the team and being great all around player. Nor has there been any noticeable improvement with him these past years. If we ignore the sad overall performances in the WJCs and take a look at his numbers in FEL/AHL (there really aren't much difference between the level of these leagues), the scoring seems rather linear which either might not mean much or just isn't a great sign. Now am I saying he's a bust? No, but the chances are there for sure. The kid has the boom or bust label written all over. Do I hope for the latter? Definitely not.

Now why would I have agenda against him? While Finland may be producing more top end talent than ever, that doesn't mean everyone of those guys are going to pan out. Every piece counts, even Kapanen. If you look into my earlier posts about the kid, you can find similar observations.

This is probably the most ridiculous thing I have ever read about a prospect on this site.

Ha sure, Kasperi is still only 20 years old and there's time. However, as I explained before, his development has left a lot to be desired. A kid who shies away from contact being 19 year old in the WJC doesn't really light it up for me. There's no room for fear in the NHL. I'm not going to even bother with the questions around his hockey IQ. At this point of time there's definitely not enough showings to still throw a first rounder for him, whether you may like it or not.

 

[Halla]

People seem to read into posts whatever way they see most fit. Throwing out an example doesn't equal to comparing prospects, jeez.

Now as for Kapanen, I don't see him as the type of a player that would be an ideal bottom six guy. He's not going to beat guys with his physicality and he doesn't even usually seem willing to put himself out there (which is maybe wise if you want to avoid injuries). Now if he doesn't break into top 6 role looking down the future, what kind of value does he hold? Aside from that, I haven't seen any hint of that "warrior spirit" his father used to have, doing everything for the team and being great all around player. Nor has there been any noticeable improvement with him these past years. If we ignore the sad overall performances in the WJCs and take a look at his numbers in FEL/AHL (there really aren't much difference between the level of these leagues), the scoring seems rather linear which either might not mean much or just isn't a great sign. Now am I saying he's a bust? No, but the chances are there for sure. The kid has the boom or bust label written all over. Do I hope for the latter? Definitely not.

Now why would I have agenda against him? While Finland may be producing more top end talent than ever, that doesn't mean everyone of those guys are going to pan out. Every piece counts, even Kapanen. If you look into my earlier posts about the kid, you can find similar observations.



Ha sure, Kasperi is still only 20 years old and there's time. However, as I explained before, his development has left a lot to be desired. A kid who shies away from contact being 19 year old in the WJC doesn't really light it up for me. There's no room for fear in the NHL. I'm not going to even bother with the questions around his hockey IQ. At this point of time there's definitely not enough showings to still throw a first rounder for him, whether you may like it or not.

uhhh....the leafs arent trying to move him. also, you arent a gm and have no idea of the market for such a player.

swing and a miss

 

[kelsier]

uhhh....the leafs arent trying to move him. also, you arent a gm and have no idea of the market for such a player.

swing and a miss

Right, and I suppose you have market value expertise?

The Panthers have Reilly Smith signed up until 2022. Smith is pretty much the perfect second liner who can be used in the first line if Jagr goes down. They also have Hawryluk coming down the pipes (scored 106 pts in 58 games in WHL last season) for the right wing. Having Trocheck solidified as a second line center, they can also use Bjugstad on the right wing in the future especially if Borgström (C) works his way up roster in the coming years. Eventually Jagr will retire and needs to be replaced. Now do you think Kasperi Kapanen will be a proper replacement for Jagr or would you like to elaborate for the rest of us how this trade would be beneficial for the Panthers moving forward?

 

[ijuka]

The heck are you even talking about? #20-#30 OA's average expectation is that they never even make the NHL in any capacity, not being a replacement for a first ballot HoFer. if Kapanen is 3 years ahead in development as well as looking like he has some legitimate bottom 6 potential, it's a no brainer.

I'm someone who has been rather disappointed in Kapanen, especially his decisionmaking. But he has some legitimate tools and he easily is more valuable than a late first round selection.

 

[Trapper]

Classic HF overvaluation of the almighty 1st round pick.

But the 1st round pick could be anything? Anything!
It could even be Kapanen. That would be good. I like Kapanen. If I could trade Kappy for a Kappy, I'd be pretty happy!

 

[Liferleafer]

I think our management now has the patience to let these young guys develop....why give up Kap just to get a late 1st?

 

[kelsier]

The heck are you even talking about? #20-#30 OA's average expectation is that they never even make the NHL in any capacity, not being a replacement for a first ballot HoFer. if Kapanen is 3 years ahead in development as well as looking like he has some legitimate bottom 6 potential, it's a no brainer.

I'm someone who has been rather disappointed in Kapanen, especially his decisionmaking. But he has some legitimate tools and he easily is more valuable than a late first round selection.

Yet there are teams like the Wings who can find valuable assets no matter how low they are drafting. There's absolutely nothing aside from great skating and good hands in Kapanen that would make him a future NHL player. In most cases even these assets are not enough, especially if you are below average in size/height. Earlier I said I'd rather roll the dice again, but in reality drafting has little to do with lottery (in case someone took it seriously) if your scouting staff is good enough. Right now this kid doesn't look like a future NHL player to me, hence not worth of a first rounder. Feel free to disagree.

 

[4thline]

But the 1st round pick could be anything? Anything!
It could even be Kapanen. That would be good. I like Kapanen. If I could trade Kappy for a Kappy, I'd be pretty happy!

And you know what's better than a Kappy? A Kappy with two years less positive development and the added risk of busting outright and never being worth signing to an ELC, that gets us a compensation pick!

 

[Pyromaniac]

Yet there are teams like the Wings who can find valuable assets no matter how low they are drafting. There's absolutely nothing aside from great skating and good hands in Kapanen that would make him a future NHL player. In most cases even these assets are not enough, especially if you are below average in size/height. Earlier I said I'd rather roll the dice again, but in reality drafting has little to do with lottery (in case someone took it seriously) if your scouting staff is good enough. Right now this kid doesn't look like a future NHL player to me, hence not worth of a first rounder. Feel free to disagree.

Jakub Kindl and Brendan Smith were both drafted with late 1st round picks and ended up being extremely underwhelming. Even the best drafting teams miss often in the 20-40 range.

You are grossly overstating the value of a late 1st round pick, you are lucky if that pick ever turns into more than a 3rd line player. I would consider doing a 1st for Kapanen as a Hawks fan.

Edit: I also remember Kapanen being out on the ice frequently for the Finns while holding onto the lead in the dying seconds. Your coach didn't seem to think of him as a player who only has a limited skill set.

 

[Trapper]

And you know what's better than a Kappy? A Kappy with two years less positive development and the added risk of busting outright and never being worth signing to an ELC, that gets us a compensation pick!

Well I'm sold. Make the call.

 

[Hokinaittii]

Kapanen's game has always been about his confidence. After the golden goal in WJC, he has turned a tide. This preseason showed it.

So the trade wouldn't make much sense for Toronto, it's always a risk to try land on good prospect in the later rounds of the 1st draft.

 

[kelsier]

Jakub Kindl and Brendan Smith were both drafted with late 1st round picks and ended up being extremely underwhelming. Even the best drafting teams miss often in the 20-40 range.

You are grossly overstating the value of a late 1st round pick, you are lucky if that pick ever turns into more than a 3rd line player. I would consider doing a 1st for Kapanen as a Hawks fan.

Edit: I also remember Kapanen being out on the ice frequently for the Finns while holding onto the lead in the dying seconds. Your coach didn't seem to think of him as a player who only has a limited skill set.

The Finnish coaches tend to keep the older players on the ice at the last minutes. I've watched every single WJC game he's played and couldn't begin to count the number of bad decisions/plays made. Yeah, the golden goal pretty much redeemed him from the past errors in the eyes of the country but one play doesn't make him a better player than he is.

Anyway I don't see point going around circles with this. Hopefully the future will prove me wrong and Kapanen can turn the tide around. Not much else to add and don't think we see a trade like this happening either way.

 

[Kelly]

Yet there are teams like the Wings who can find valuable assets no matter how low they are drafting. There's absolutely nothing aside from great skating and good hands in Kapanen that would make him a future NHL player. In most cases even these assets are not enough, especially if you are below average in size/height. Earlier I said I'd rather roll the dice again, but in reality drafting has little to do with lottery (in case someone took it seriously) if your scouting staff is good enough. Right now this kid doesn't look like a future NHL player to me, hence not worth of a first rounder. Feel free to disagree.

I disagree. First you insinuate that Kapanen is small, he isn't.

He's looked great this preseason, has made a real case to be on the team but unfortunately he'll be sent back because of his contract, age and waiver eligibility. His speed and hands are definitely what stand out the most when watching him but he had a nice shot as well, and is starting to use his size to protect the puck and to win 1v1 battles. Giving him first-line minutes on the Marlies is going to do wonders for his confidence, and he definitely has a great chance at becoming a 2nd or 3rd line scorer for us some day. It's stupid to write off a 19 year old for not producing near PPG in the AHL when majority of his peers are in junior. He shouldn't be thought less of just because he isn't a William Nylander. Kapanen is still a good prospect, and trading him for a mid to late 1st is essentially trading him for a similar valued player with 3 less year of development.

 

[Sundinisagod]

Considering Kapanen's skating ability, shot, and bloodlines, I think you have a much safer bet at a decent NHL'r than the average late 1st round pick. Babcock can work with that skill set.

 

[ToneBone03]

This deal is fair value for both sides but I wouldn't do it from the Leafs perspective.

He put up 0.56PPG last season as a 19-year-old rookie in a North American pro league. KK learned to play the game in Finland on the big ice. It may take longer for certain players to adjust to the ice difference. While his numbers from last year aren't overly impressive, his play steadily improved as the season went on and he was considered by many to be the best Marlies forward in their last few playoff games. As long as there is progression there is hope. People around here are talking like he's a bust that can barely keep a job in the AHL. You're going to see a tremendous jump in his numbers this season as a few key guys from last season have graduated to the Leafs and KK will be the Marlies biggest offensive weapon. He's an extremely tenacious player and a hard worker. Those are two major traits required to be successful.

A full year in the AHL will be extremely beneficial for KK.