Jvr $ (underated or overrated)

[Ricky Bobby]

his current production is pacing towards a career high water mark by about ~10pts. I'd expect him to get a deal more in line with the Lucic/Okposo level with the applicable inflation since they signed, not a Bobby Ryan type contract

He's kept up a very consistent scoring rate for 5 seasons, with a little spike this season, and is only 27 years old. Don't see why he would only be able to perform at a high rate for 1 or 2 more years, average forwards don't see big declines until 31-32 so, as well as can be predicted with current information, there's no real reason to expect a decline from him for another 4-5 years and would likely be signed for at least 7 more years (the 1 remaining year of his contract plus 6 on the re-signed deal)

If you're contending during those first 4-5 and the deal won't cause you to lose more important pieces then I think you do it. The team's capologists will figure out if it puts us in real danger before pulling the trigger - I ran some quick numbers on capfriendly, we'd likely feel a pinch when the Matthews/Marner deals come due but nothing that you couldn't get through by ensuring that you're 3rd&4th line wingers are inexpensive or on ELC's and ditto for the bottom D pairing+backup goalie. Inevitable that it's going to happen for us, but the next 2 years are likely when we can afford to ice the best team because the best players on on ELC's

Keep in mind you lose: Michalek, Laich, Greening, Lupul, Gleason's buyout, Kessel's retention (4 years into JVR's next contract), likely Komarov & Bozak from the current roster plus the cap will go up. 5-6 year team friendly deals like we've been getting (Rielly, Kadri) will be lifesavers

Funny that you mention Bobby Ryan cause the Ducks were largely rebuilt into contenders thanks to dealing him away.

They didn't want to pay him how much he'd command on his next deal. The Ducks recognized good but not great wingers aren't the place to allocate your cap space.

Instead they got a few affordable younger assets which gave them the cap space and the asset depth to bring in Kesler.

 

[Kurisu]

I tried ballparking some of the extensions for our core over the next few years and ended up with the below depth chart:

Hyman (2.5) - Matthews (10) - Brown (2.5) - $15M
JVR (6.5) - Nylander (6) - Marner (7) - $19.5M
Kapanen (3) - Kadri (4.5) - Komarov (3) - $10.5M
Martin (2.5) - Gauthier (2) - Soshnikov (1.5) - $6M

Forwards - $51M

Rielly (5) - Zaitsev (5) - $10M
Gardiner (4.5) - Shattenkirk (6) - $10.5M
Loov/Nielsen/Dermott (1) - Carrick (1) - $2M

Defense - $22.5M

Andersen (5)
McElhinney/Bibeau/Sparks (1)

Goalie - $6M

Total roster - $79.5M

In order to keep JVR at something close to market value, we'd have to hope for a fairly steady climb in the cap over the next couple of years, and likely cut bait with guys like Komarov and Martin, while hoping for some more conservative $$$ figures on a couple of the extensions.

So, as much as I believe we should try and hang onto him, it looks like it's going to be a little tighter than I initially assumed.

On the bright side, I'd be comfortable putting that lineup out against just about any team in the League.

I'd consider trading Matthews if he's asking for 10 million.

 

[Doc300c]

I guess it depends on what we can get right now.

If Anaheim is willing to offer something around any of Manson, Theodore, or Montour I'd seriously consider it. I'd have to imagine those guys would safely slot in as top 4's some day. I'd also imagine we get more back with it, potentially a high end pick.

While those all sound like good future plans, I think if i was considering JVR @ 2.1 and our 1st I would be looking for a more proven defender.

 

[IBeL34f]

I'd consider trading Matthews if he's asking for 10 million.

We'll see what he accomplishes over the next 2.5 years. I'm kind of expecting him to be one of the top-5 players in the League at that point, so I thought it safer to guess high with him.

 

[Menzinger]

We'll see what he accomplishes over the next 2.5 years. I'm kind of expecting him to be one of the top-5 players in the League at that point, so I thought it safer to guess high with him.

You don't penny pinch with a talent like Matthews: you smile and pay him every dollar he's worth.

I strongly suspect his next contract will be very similar to McDavids and I also likely expect both guys will be asking for 10ish million over 8 years: no bridge deals.

The overall trend for star RFAs is to seek for big dollars earlier on, and Matthews is starting things off strong with a near PPG season as a rookie.

 

[IBeL34f]

You don't penny pinch with a talent like Matthews: you smile and pay him every dollar he's worth.

I strongly suspect his next contract will be very similar to McDavids and I also likely expect both guys will be asking for 10ish million over 8 years: no bridge deals.

The overall trend for star RFAs is to seek for big dollars earlier on, and Matthews is starting things off strong with a near PPG season as a rookie.

This was my line of thinking as well.

Regardless, it looks like it'll take a little more than a good Matthews contract to make enough room to retain JVR. The penny-pinching will likely have to be done elsewhere.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Funny that you mention Bobby Ryan cause the Ducks were largely rebuilt into contenders thanks to dealing him away.

They didn't want to pay him how much he'd command on his next deal. The Ducks recognized good but not great wingers aren't the place to allocate your cap space.

Instead they got a few affordable younger assets which gave them the cap space and the asset depth to bring in Kesler.

I don't think that Silfverberg and Nick Ritchie are contributing that much yet, they got a good haul for him though because it looks like both pieces will turn out. Ryan was coming off 4 consecutive 30+ goal years and had never been without Getz+Perry in his career so I think there was a bit of a false perspective that he was a near franchise level winger on his own. The cap space/org depth argument is fine, but what would we use the pieces and cap that were returned to us to go after....a dman? We don't have the need at centre

Anyway, I think the precedent for JVR is $6mil not $7.5mil, and we have a GM that has a reputation for being a great negotiator (which we've already seen with Rielly and Kadri, suspect we will again this year with Zaitsev). If a deal were to be negotiated with JVR in the offseason, it's also saves him a complete year of play where he could get hurt or have a bad year which would reduce his potential payday, so JVR has incentive to get a guaranteed contract in place asap too

You don't penny pinch with a talent like Matthews: you smile and pay him every dollar he's worth.

I strongly suspect his next contract will be very similar to McDavids and I also likely expect both guys will be asking for 10ish million over 8 years: no bridge deals.

The overall trend for star RFAs is to seek for big dollars earlier on, and Matthews is starting things off strong with a near PPG season as a rookie.

agree with that idea...and it seems like there's been guys in his position that haven't demanded every dollar that's available to them (Crosby, Stamkos), probably because winning is important to them and they recognize that the team can't be good if there's nothing left to go around. I'd still expect Matthews to get paid well, but wouldn't be surprised if the price tag is more reasonable than he'd be within his rights to demand

 

[The CyNick]

A big part of the equation is what type of deal will Matthews sign after his ELC. If we do a bridge deal, he's not getting ten. If we do a longer term deal, it probably won't average ten either, but it will escalate to that. If he signs a bridge, we likely have more money freed up to spend on vets like a JVR. But then you can't commit 6-7 years to JVR at top line money.

I also don't expect Marner and Nylander to make only 60-70% of what Matthews makes, I think those numbers will be higher for both. Points wise Marner is right on Matthews heels, so why would AM command three million more? I think they'll be closer to a Towes-Kane scenario.

That's why these next three years are our best chance to compete. We'll have MNM cheap, and can also supplement with guys like JVR for two of three years at cheap money.

I also don't see guys like Brown being around long term. Brown will most likely put up good numbers with Matthews. In doing so his value will go up. When he's a UFA, he'll likely be in that high end winger money territory (ie 5-6 million in today's market), and the again, because of our top players, we'll be unable to keep a guy like Brown long term. It'll be similar to the issues Chicago has had with having to constantly ship out valuable pieces because their cap is tied up with their core.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

Funny that you mention Bobby Ryan cause the Ducks were largely rebuilt into contenders thanks to dealing him away.

They didn't want to pay him how much he'd command on his next deal. The Ducks recognized good but not great wingers aren't the place to allocate your cap space.

Instead they got a few affordable younger assets which gave them the cap space and the asset depth to bring in Kesler.

Bobby Ryan is a very good comparison. I think JVR is slightly more talented than Ryan and will produce better into his late 20s/early 30s by virtue of hindsight and the fact that JVR has continually improved or sustained his performance in the past 4 seasons. Having said that, there are already 3 players locked into 5+ year deals at $5 million a season (Reilly, Kadri, and Anderson). There are 3 potential elite players who are due for significant raises before Reilly/Kadri/Anderson expire. Then you throw in Zaitsev this offseason, Brown, and Gardiner on his existing deal, and quite soon, the cap will get squeezed pretty fast. Keep in mind that this is also the NHL and not the NBA, where i) long-term injuries are more prevalent than in any other sport; and ii) the depth of a team has a greater impact to team success than simply maximizing the talent of your Top 5-6 players.

Unless there's a massive cable deal that will spike the NHL cap, we're looking at a +4-5 million increase at best by 2020. I don't see how there's any room for JVR on a long-term deal when other younger core players like Zaitsev, Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Brown will need to be locked up first.

It'd be really interesting to see what the ROI is of UFA signings from 2012 onwards. Use any metric that you want - goals/assists/points, CF%, etc., but do it at a rate relative to the USD $. Have a relevant comparison between players based on age and position, and normalize to total team performance if you want, but I'm convinced that we'd see 1) the ROI of UFA signings to have much lower returns per dollar than an RFA re-signing of a given player and/or 2) the ROI of UFA signings to be significantly lower once you hit a contractual threshold (i.e. AAV > $5 million, terms greater 5 years) by the midway point of that given contract.

A good comparison would be this offseason in MLB. Guys like Bautista, Encarnacion, Trumbo, etc., would have secured massive contracts 4 or 5 years ago; GMs have since learned that power sluggers in their early-to-mid 30s are a rapidly depreciating asset, and this offseason showed a correction for that. I suspect that it's the same with the NHL, which is why both players/agents and GMs are keen to sign an RFA Matthews to a massive long-term deal nowadays than they are to get into a bidding war for Okposo or Stamkos.

 

[IBeL34f]

A big part of the equation is what type of deal will Matthews sign after his ELC. If we do a bridge deal, he's not getting ten. If we do a longer term deal, it probably won't average ten either, but it will escalate to that. If he signs a bridge, we likely have more money freed up to spend on vets like a JVR. But then you can't commit 6-7 years to JVR at top line money.

I also don't expect Marner and Nylander to make only 60-70% of what Matthews makes, I think those numbers will be higher for both. Points wise Marner is right on Matthews heels, so why would AM command three million more? I think they'll be closer to a Towes-Kane scenario.

That's why these next three years are our best chance to compete. We'll have MNM cheap, and can also supplement with guys like JVR for two of three years at cheap money.

I also don't see guys like Brown being around long term. Brown will most likely put up good numbers with Matthews. In doing so his value will go up. When he's a UFA, he'll likely be in that high end winger money territory (ie 5-6 million in today's market), and the again, because of our top players, we'll be unable to keep a guy like Brown long term. It'll be similar to the issues Chicago has had with having to constantly ship out valuable pieces because their cap is tied up with their core.

We have to find a way to make sure this isn't the case. It might be as simple as not extending JVR so that we can afford to pay our young guys what they'll earn over the next couple of years.

With Matthews, Nylander and Marner all in their 19/20-year-old rookie seasons, there's no excuse for our window of contention to be any smaller than 10-15 years at this point. We're too young for a 3-year window, we need to make sure it stays open as long as possible.

Either way, I trust our management group to sort this out.

 

[BertCorbeau]

A big part of the equation is what type of deal will Matthews sign after his ELC. If we do a bridge deal, he's not getting ten. If we do a longer term deal, it probably won't average ten either, but it will escalate to that. If he signs a bridge, we likely have more money freed up to spend on vets like a JVR. But then you can't commit 6-7 years to JVR at top line money.

I also don't expect Marner and Nylander to make only 60-70% of what Matthews makes, I think those numbers will be higher for both. Points wise Marner is right on Matthews heels, so why would AM command three million more? I think they'll be closer to a Towes-Kane scenario.

That's why these next three years are our best chance to compete. We'll have MNM cheap, and can also supplement with guys like JVR for two of three years at cheap money.

I also don't see guys like Brown being around long term. Brown will most likely put up good numbers with Matthews. In doing so his value will go up. When he's a UFA, he'll likely be in that high end winger money territory (ie 5-6 million in today's market), and the again, because of our top players, we'll be unable to keep a guy like Brown long term. It'll be similar to the issues Chicago has had with having to constantly ship out valuable pieces because their cap is tied up with their core.

Conversely, Brown is a guy that could be kept around on the cheaper side as an RFA until he's due for a big UFA raise. The benefit is that the Leafs do retain his rights and have more control for the time being.

I do agree that a player like him may not fit within the long-term salary cap structure. Caution should be used when looking at handing contracts out to complimentary players.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Bobby Ryan is a very good comparison. I think JVR is slightly more talented than Ryan and will produce better into his late 20s/early 30s by virtue of hindsight and the fact that JVR has continually improved or sustained his performance in the past 4 seasons. Having said that, there are already 3 players locked into 5+ year deals at $5 million a season (Reilly, Kadri, and Anderson). There are 3 potential elite players who are due for significant raises before Reilly/Kadri/Anderson expire. Then you throw in Zaitsev this offseason, Brown, and Gardiner on his existing deal, and quite soon, the cap will get squeezed pretty fast. Keep in mind that this is also the NHL and not the NBA, where i) long-term injuries are more prevalent than in any other sport; and ii) the depth of a team has a greater impact to team success than simply maximizing the talent of your Top 5-6 players.

Unless there's a massive cable deal that will spike the NHL cap, we're looking at a +4-5 million increase at best by 2020. I don't see how there's any room for JVR on a long-term deal when other younger core players like Zaitsev, Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Brown will need to be locked up first.

It'd be really interesting to see what the ROI is of UFA signings from 2012 onwards. Use any metric that you want - goals/assists/points, CF%, etc., but do it at a rate relative to the USD $. Have a relevant comparison between players based on age and position, and normalize to total team performance if you want, but I'm convinced that we'd see 1) the ROI of UFA signings to have much lower returns per dollar than an RFA re-signing of a given player and/or 2) the ROI of UFA signings to be significantly lower once you hit a contractual threshold (i.e. AAV > $5 million, terms greater 5 years) by the midway point of that given contract.

A good comparison would be this offseason in MLB. Guys like Bautista, Encarnacion, Trumbo, etc., would have secured massive contracts 4 or 5 years ago; GMs have since learned that power sluggers in their early-to-mid 30s are a rapidly depreciating asset, and this offseason showed a correction for that. I suspect that it's the same with the NHL, which is why both players/agents and GMs are keen to sign an RFA Matthews to a massive long-term deal nowadays than they are to get into a bidding war for Okposo or Stamkos.

Kadri's $4.5mil - and there's room for some big contracts on a roster in addition to the few core players. The good signings that you make pre-emptively can turn out to really solidify the supporting cast, like Hossa in Chicago. Seems like buying UFA years from Kadri, Rielly and Gardiner at a good rate is a good start, probably set a good precedent to do the same from Zaitsev this year. UFA signings seem like a bit of a luxury when we're heading into that type of cap scenario unless we're talking about bottom 6 forwards/bottom 3 Dmen - with our farm these probably won't be that necessary. ELC/RFA players from the farm who are inexpensive likely will play a big part though, we'll have to be prepared to walk away from the Komarov/Hyman/Soshnikov type players when they come looking for big money and replace them with cheaper guys out of the system

 

[Gary Nylund]

Bobby Ryan is a very good comparison. I think JVR is slightly more talented than Ryan and will produce better into his late 20s/early 30s by virtue of hindsight and the fact that JVR has continually improved or sustained his performance in the past 4 seasons. Having said that, there are already 3 players locked into 5+ year deals at $5 million a season (Reilly, Kadri, and Anderson). There are 3 potential elite players who are due for significant raises before Reilly/Kadri/Anderson expire. Then you throw in Zaitsev this offseason, Brown, and Gardiner on his existing deal, and quite soon, the cap will get squeezed pretty fast. Keep in mind that this is also the NHL and not the NBA, where i) long-term injuries are more prevalent than in any other sport; and ii) the depth of a team has a greater impact to team success than simply maximizing the talent of your Top 5-6 players.

Unless there's a massive cable deal that will spike the NHL cap, we're looking at a +4-5 million increase at best by 2020. I don't see how there's any room for JVR on a long-term deal when other younger core players like Zaitsev, Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Brown will need to be locked up first.

It'd be really interesting to see what the ROI is of UFA signings from 2012 onwards. Use any metric that you want - goals/assists/points, CF%, etc., but do it at a rate relative to the USD $. Have a relevant comparison between players based on age and position, and normalize to total team performance if you want, but I'm convinced that we'd see 1) the ROI of UFA signings to have much lower returns per dollar than an RFA re-signing of a given player and/or 2) the ROI of UFA signings to be significantly lower once you hit a contractual threshold (i.e. AAV > $5 million, terms greater 5 years) by the midway point of that given contract.

A good comparison would be this offseason in MLB. Guys like Bautista, Encarnacion, Trumbo, etc., would have secured massive contracts 4 or 5 years ago; GMs have since learned that power sluggers in their early-to-mid 30s are a rapidly depreciating asset, and this offseason showed a correction for that. I suspect that it's the same with the NHL, which is why both players/agents and GMs are keen to sign an RFA Matthews to a massive long-term deal nowadays than they are to get into a bidding war for Okposo or Stamkos.

That may be, the problem is that he will already be 29 by the time his new contract begins. Signing him for 6-7 years is more risk that I'd want to take, I'd rather deal him for whatever we can get.

We have to find a way to make sure this isn't the case. It might be as simple as not extending JVR so that we can afford to pay our young guys what they'll earn over the next couple of years.

With Matthews, Nylander and Marner all in their 19/20-year-old rookie seasons, there's no excuse for our window of contention to be any smaller than 10-15 years at this point. We're too young for a 3-year window, we need to make sure it stays open as long as possible.

Either way, I trust our management group to sort this out.

I was going to say something like this, you beat me to it. I'm quite sure our management team is planning on contending for many, many years to come.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Conversely, Brown is a guy that could be kept around on the cheaper side as an RFA until he's due for a big UFA raise. The benefit is that the Leafs do retain his rights and have more control for the time being.

I do agree that a player like him may not fit within the long-term salary cap structure. Caution should be used when looking at handing contracts out to complimentary players.

You never know, if Brown likes it here (and I imagine he does), he may be willing to take less than he'd get on the open market to stay here the same way Kadri did.

 

[Barilko14]

You don't penny pinch with a talent like Matthews: you smile and pay him every dollar he's worth.

I strongly suspect his next contract will be very similar to McDavids and I also likely expect both guys will be asking for 10ish million over 8 years: no bridge deals.

The overall trend for star RFAs is to seek for big dollars earlier on, and Matthews is starting things off strong with a near PPG season as a rookie.

I'm pretty sure no player has topped $8M with their 2nd contract. IMO neither of those guys top $9M if they sign for 8 years, using Tarasenko contract as closest comparative.

Hopefully, Matthews will feel generous at contract time (like a Tavares) and leave a bit of $$ on the table.

Doubtful though.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

Kadri's $4.5mil - and there's room for some big contracts on a roster in addition to the few core players. The good signings that you make pre-emptively can turn out to really solidify the supporting cast, like Hossa in Chicago. Seems like buying UFA years from Kadri, Rielly and Gardiner at a good rate is a good start, probably set a good precedent to do the same from Zaitsev this year. UFA signings seem like a bit of a luxury when we're heading into that type of cap scenario unless we're talking about bottom 6 forwards/bottom 3 Dmen - with our farm these probably won't be that necessary. ELC/RFA players from the farm who are inexpensive likely will play a big part though, we'll have to be prepared to walk away from the Komarov/Hyman/Soshnikov type players when they come looking for big money and replace them with cheaper guys out of the system

Frederik Andersen G 26 $5,000,000 --> $5,000,000
Morgan Rielly D 21 $5,000,000 --> $5,000,000
Nazem Kadri C 25 $4,500,000 --> $4,500,000
James Van Riemsdyk* LW 26 $4,250,000 --> $7,000,000
Tyler Bozak* C 29 $4,200,000 -->
Jake Gardiner D 25 $4,050,000 --> $4,050,000
Leo Komarov LW 28 $2,950,000 -->
Matt Martin LW 26 $2,500,000 -->
Roman Polak D 29 $2,250,000 -->
Matt Hunwick D 30 $1,200,000 -->
Zach Hyman* C 23 $925,000 --> $2,500,000
Auston Matthews* C 18 $925,000 --> $9,000,000
Nikita Zaitsev* D 24 $925,000 --> $5,000,000
Mitchell Marner* C 18 $894,167 --> $7,000,000
William Nylander* C 19 $894,167 --> $6,500,000
Connor Carrick D 21 $750,000 --> $2,000,000
Connor Brown* RW 25 $686,666 --> $3,500,000
Nikita Soshnikov* RW 22 $654,880 --> $1,500,000
Josh Leivo LW 22 $612,500 -->
Frank Corrado D 22 $600,000 -->
Frederik Gauthier* C 20 $522,764 -->
Curtis McElhinney G 32 $399,960 -->
$44,690,104 $62,550,000

Current salary (2016-2017) --> Projected Salary in the future. Blanks after the --> implies that the player will no longer be with the Leafs.

Assume:

1) The cap goes up to $78 million in 3 years time
2) JVR is re-signed at $7 AAV
3) Estimates given for guys who are re-signed. You can argue who gets what, but an AAV of Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Brown/Zaitsev would have a blended AAV of about $6.2M.

That leaves $15.45M for 9 players, which is an AAV $1.72M per missing player. This leaves very little room to fill your #4-6 defenceman, backup goalie, and your 3rd and 4th lines. Assuming that guys like Kapanen/Timashov/Leipsic become actual NHL regulars and exercise their ELC in 2017-2018, you might be able to fill the rest remaining 6 spots at 2.11 AAV, but that'll take a lot of astute contracts, or 1-2 decent UFA signings with 4 other minimum salary journeymen guys.

Take out JVR, and you've got $2.25M AAV to spend on 10 players. If the aforementioned 3 players exercise their ELC in 2017-2018 and become regulars, and you've got $2.81M AAV to spend on the remaning 7 players. As much as I think JVR is a talented player, he's also going to be 30 years old by the time his extension kicks in - I'd rather take the $2.81M AAV on the remaining 7 players; pay $4-4.5 million AAV @ 2 years for a solid #4, and still have $2.5M AAV to fill out the remaining 6. Possibly even get a solid 3rd liner or #5 defenceman and at another $3 million AAV @ 2 years, and still have enough left to get solid depth to balance out the rest of the roster.

 

[Menzinger]

We have to find a way to make sure this isn't the case. It might be as simple as not extending JVR so that we can afford to pay our young guys what they'll earn over the next couple of years.

With Matthews, Nylander and Marner all in their 19/20-year-old rookie seasons, there's no excuse for our window of contention to be any smaller than 10-15 years at this point. We're too young for a 3-year window, we need to make sure it stays open as long as possible.

Either way, I trust our management group to sort this out.

But at the same time the Leafs greatest cap flexibility will be when Matthews, Nylander and Marner are all on their ELC deals which is definitely something to keep in mind.

At the same time I totally agree the Leafs must plan for long term cap stability for sustained success

 

[Menzinger]

I'm pretty sure no player has topped $8M with their 2nd contract. IMO neither of those guys top $9M if they sign for 8 years, using Tarasenko contract as closest comparative.

Hopefully, Matthews will feel generous at contract time (like a Tavares) and leave a bit of $$ on the table.

Doubtful though.

True but current league salary trends on RFA deals are changing now. If a kid goes near PPG for his whole ELC they'll be in a very advantageous negotiation position come time for their RFA deal.

McDavid will set the trend for what Matthews will be close to follow.

 

[BertCorbeau]

You never know, if Brown likes it here (and I imagine he does), he may be willing to take less than he'd get on the open market to stay here the same way Kadri did.

Maybe! And for the record I love Brown, I think he's a guy that embodies everything Babcock preaches about hard work, but this was mostly to speak about not handing out big contracts to strictly complimentary players.

Chicago has had to make some shrewd moves to stay competitive - yet it's worked pretty well. The Leafs have better taken notice.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

That may be, the problem is that he will already be 29 by the time his new contract begins. Signing him for 6-7 years is more risk that I'd want to take, I'd rather deal him for whatever we can get.
.

yeah, selected bolded statement aside, the rest of my post is basically advocating your point. I'd give JVR slightly more term for a 3 year deal at best (which he likely wouldn't take given the risk on his end). Even then, I probably wouldn't do that since he'd likely put up 30-30 perennially under Marner (who would put up 70+ points per season), and skew the contract demands of the RFAs coming after him. Much better to deal JVR this offseason - either for a good #3-4 defenceman, or for assets to then parlay either into i) an established #3-4 defenceman or a ii) young, almost-seasoned prospect who could potentially become that guy within 2-3 seasons.

 

[Barilko14]

If JVR goes for $7, there will not be a Leaf on his chest.

Kadri is more valuable to this team, and he just took $4.5.

IMO, JVR might be happy to stay somewhere comfortable and take a 5 yr deal worth $5.5 or $5.75.

If Lucic gets $6M on the open market it would not be crazy for JVR to re-up early at less than $6M.

 

[Walshy7]

True but current league salary trends on RFA deals are changing now. If a kid goes near PPG for his whole ELC they'll be in a very advantageous negotiation position come time for their RFA deal.

McDavid will set the trend for what Matthews will be close to follow.

I agree, and you pay him what he is worth straight out of ELC we waited 10+ years for a true 1C in his prim don't nickel and dime this one.

I have less than 0 interest in resigning JVR he just isn't an integral piece when all said and done, as others have said is new 7 year contract will start when he is 29. People are dreaming if they think he takes anything less than 7 years not a chance. And he will likely get $7+ that is horrible cap management

 

[Barilko14]

I agree, and you pay him what he is worth straight out of ELC we waited 10+ years for a true 1C in his prim don't nickel and dime this one.

I have less than 0 interest in resigning JVR he just isn't an integral piece when all said and done, as others have said is new 7 year contract will start when he is 29. People are dreaming if they think he takes anything less than 7 years not a chance. And he will likely get $7+ that is horrible cap management

People would also be dreaming if they thought Rielly would sign long term for $5M, or Kadri long term for $4.5M.

It's going to be pretty simple. If he's willing to sign for under $6M, there's a chance he stays. Over that and he'll be dealt.

O'Sullivan on leafs Lunch said a couple of weeks ago, not every player is cut out for hitting the open market. Said some guys would prefer to leave $$ on the table to stay somewhere they are happy, then signing for big $$ and having to live up to that in a new city/dressing room. Said from knowing JVR a bit, felt he was more the type that likes to be comfortable.

This is the reason that alot of UFAs like JVR re-up with their own teams well before hitting UFA. In fact it's more common for guys of his calibre to kept by their teams, then be allowed to hit open market.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I hope JVR will see the team that Toronto is building and their lack of LW. as a result take a bit of a pay cut knowing he will be a top liner on a cup contending team for likely the rest of his contract.

Edit: also what contending teams have the cap space to sign a 6.5 AAV ageing winger? Not many I reckon

 

[Walshy7]

People would also be dreaming if they thought Rielly would sign long term for $5M, or Kadri long term for $4.5M.

It's going to be pretty simple. If he's willing to sign for under $6M, there's a chance he stays. Over that and he'll be dealt.

O'Sullivan on leafs Lunch said a couple of weeks ago, not every player is cut out for hitting the open market. Said some guys would prefer to leave $$ on the table to stay somewhere they are happy, then signing for big $$ and having to live up to that in a new city/dressing room. Said from knowing JVR a bit, felt he was more the type that likes to be comfortable.

was Rielly one year from UFA? sure they took some UFA years but JVR is 1 year away from going where ever he wants and there will be a lot of teams are going to offer over $7M for 7 years. SO pick his location and get the same money. how much would o'sullivan know JVR (honestly I don't know).

Im not interested in over $6M for sure agree there I really doubt he agrees under that. He also has to hear how he has been on this "sweetheart" contract all these years I bet he is ready to cash in