Jvr $ (underated or overrated)

[Kiwi]

If JVR goes for $7, there will not be a Leaf on his chest.

Kadri is more valuable to this team, and he just took $4.5.

IMO, JVR might be happy to stay somewhere comfortable and take a 5 yr deal worth $5.5 or $5.75.

If Lucic gets $6M on the open market it would not be crazy for JVR to re-up early at less than $6M.

He's on pace for 70 points this year
If that pace sticks next year he's worth WAY more than that
Lucic could only dream of that kind of production

If he takes 5.5 or 5.75 for 5 years he's out of his gord

 

[Walshy7]

I hope JVR will see the team that Toronto is building and their lack of LW. as a result take a bit of a pay cut knowing he will be a top liner on a cup contending team for likely the rest of his contract.

Edit: also what contending teams have the cap space to sign a 6.5 AAV ageing winger? Not many I reckon

quite a few New Jersey being a big one and close to home. I don't see many if any players giving discounts these days for sure not at JVR's level of player this is his last big contract. Bear in mind people love pointing to Tavares he is a UFA same season and will be 28 so his "discount" was signed as a RFA

 

[613Leafer]

Pretty good but non-elite scoring wingers tend to get pretty overpaid IMO. Look at this past offseason, Lucic, Ladd, Okposo, and Eriksson. I wouldn't want any of those contracts on our team, and JVR looks primed to get something very similar. ~7 years X 5.5-6M most likely.

But a ~50 point centre like Kadri that can effectively play against other teams top lines every night is more valuable than a ~60 point winger who's one of our weakest players defensively, and he's only getting 4.5M.

JVR and Bozak have the two worst goals against / 60 minutes among forwards on our team, despite being on a team loaded with rookies and despite themselves getting the highest % of offensive zone starts on the team (see link below).

So I think a guy like JVR is where we really can't be investing that much money. The only thing he brings is offence, and that's just not an area of concern for us. He's a good but not elite player, and he's not well rounded enough to be worth the type of contract he's going to get. If he doesn't get injured this year and continues at roughly this ~70 point pace, I think it's a great opportunity to sell high on him. Either focus on bringing in a defenceman, or focus on bringing in a solid package of picks/prospects to help maintain a long window of contention and give flexibility in free agency.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...=50&teamid=28&type=goals&sort=A60&sortdir=ASC

 

[WilliamInLondon]

He's on pace for 70 points this year
If that pace sticks next year he's worth WAY more than that
Lucic could only dream of that kind of production

If he takes 5.5 or 5.75 for 5 years he's out of his gord

agreed. he'll get $35M+ on the open market, easily (5 x $7M, or 6 X $6.5M, or 7 X $6M). I wouldn't touch that in a million years, but at least one team will. Best thing would be to trade him at the draft. Or try to sign him for less years and/or less AAV from July 5th onwards and deal him after if he balks, but returns would probably be less if other premier UFAs go first.

 

[Randy Randerson]

He's on pace for 70 points this year
If that pace sticks next year he's worth WAY more than that
Lucic could only dream of that kind of production

If he takes 5.5 or 5.75 for 5 years he's out of his gord

I think $6M x 5-6 years is the precedent - Okposo/Lucic/Ladd from this past free agency. Likely to inflate a bit just as part of natural cap inflation, and if he finishes with 70 points this year I'm sure that bodes well for him. I think he'll get decidedly less than Bobby Ryan did though ($7.5m) - around $6.5mil seems right

Could see Lou playing hardball a bit, make an offer in the summer knowing that JVR has a full year to play before hitting free agency where he could have a bad year or get hurt. If we got him at $5.5-5.75 x 5 years I'd call that a big win

 

[Barilko14]

was Rielly one year from UFA? sure they took some UFA years but JVR is 1 year away from going where ever he wants and there will be a lot of teams are going to offer over $7M for 7 years. SO pick his location and get the same money. how much would o'sullivan know JVR (honestly I don't know).

Im not interested in over $6M for sure agree there I really doubt he agrees under that. He also has to hear how he has been on this "sweetheart" contract all these years I bet he is ready to cash in

Who cares how well O'Sullivan knows him? He said he knows him.

So why do UFAs re-sign before testing the market though? 90% could make more $$ if they tested the market, but 75% of high calibre UFAs resign?

If he's happy here, he'll stay for $6 or under, if he wants more $$ he'll be dealt.

Of course, he'll also get dealt if some team offers up a trade to good to say no to.

 

[Barilko14]

He's on pace for 70 points this year
If that pace sticks next year he's worth WAY more than that
Lucic could only dream of that kind of production

If he takes 5.5 or 5.75 for 5 years he's out of his gord

Lucic has topped 55 pts 4 times in his career, topped 60pts twice.

Lucic also had the bargaining power of being Lucic, JVR can't point to much more than his pts.

 

[Walshy7]

Who cares how well O'Sullivan knows him? He said he knows him.

So why do UFAs re-sign before testing the market though? 90% could make more $$ if they tested the market, but 75% of high calibre UFAs resign?

If he's happy here, he'll stay for $6 or under, if he wants more $$ he'll be dealt.

Of course, he'll also get dealt if some team offers up a trade to good to say no to.

if he is happy here he will try to stay agreed, but he will not take under $6 there is no way. Where do you get your %'s from up there 75% of high calibre players resign if true is probably because their current team offers them what they think they are worth plus an extra year possibly why test the market for a million more, what you want JVR for >$6 is not what he is close to being worth. All JVR level players I can think of last FA left their original team though Ladd,Osposo, Lucic very comparable players

 

[Kiwi]

I think $6M x 5-6 years is the precedent - Okposo/Lucic/Ladd from this past free agency. Likely to inflate a bit just as part of natural cap inflation, and if he finishes with 70 points this year I'm sure that bodes well for him. I think he'll get decidedly less than Bobby Ryan did though ($7.5m) - around $6.5mil seems right

Could see Lou playing hardball a bit, make an offer in the summer knowing that JVR has a full year to play before hitting free agency where he could have a bad year or get hurt. If we got him at $5.5-5.75 x 5 years I'd call that a big win

If Lou can get that he's a magician
If JVR can't get at least 6.5 with term he should sack his agent
We're talking 70 points here that's a truckload in a league where scorings tough

 

[Walshy7]

If Lou can get that he's a magician
If JVR can't get at least 6.5 with term he should sack his agent
We're talking 70 points here that's a truckload in a league where scorings tough

he will its not even up for debate. He is debating a what if that wont happen so whats the point

 

[Kurisu]

If Lou can get that he's a magician
If JVR can't get at least 6.5 with term he should sack his agent
We're talking 70 points here that's a truckload in a league where scorings tough

yes because everyone always chases after money. I think you're just looking for a reason to trade him off.

 

[Kiwi]

Lucic has topped 55 pts 4 times in his career, topped 60pts twice.

Lucic also had the bargaining power of being Lucic, JVR can't point to much more than his pts.

What his around 70 points this year?
That's a hell of a point even if he is one dimensional

 

[Randy Randerson]

If Lou can get that he's a magician
If JVR can't get at least 6.5 with term he should sack his agent
We're talking 70 points here that's a truckload in a league where scorings tough

I think he'll get valued as a 30/30 guy at this point, he's maintained that pace for a long time and I think they'll trust the 250ish games of data before this year over one year with a new set of linemates. His line is all producing this year, Marner on the same pace and Bozak going for about 60pts, so that will boost production a bit

If he repeated a 70pt pace next year and held out to be a UFA, he'll get paid closer to the Bobby Ryan level I think

 

[BertCorbeau]

JVR hitting 70 points would be the ultimate sell-high scenario in the off-season for a rental with his excellent cap hit.

 

[Kiwi]

yes because everyone always chases after money. I think you're just looking for a reason to trade him off.

He's been paid peanuts for his production for years why wouldn't he cash in? He deserves to
People around here talk about taking a 5 million dollar paycut on his next contact like it's nothing
That's a whole lot of love if he's willing to do that

Would you?

 

[Kiwi]

I think he'll get valued as a 30/30 guy at this point, he's maintained that pace for a long time and I think they'll trust the 250ish games of data before this year over one year with a new set of linemates. His line is all producing this year, Marner on the same pace and Bozak going for about 60pts, so that will boost production a bit

If he repeated a 70pt pace next year and held out to be a UFA, he'll get paid closer to the Bobby Ryan level I think

If he's playing with the same line mates next year with the same sort of use age he's got every chance of hitting 70 points again
Marner could be even better next year
Imagine his point totals with that

 

[Walshy7]

I think he'll get valued as a 30/30 guy at this point, he's maintained that pace for a long time and I think they'll trust the 250ish games of data before this year over one year with a new set of linemates. His line is all producing this year, Marner on the same pace and Bozak going for about 60pts, so that will boost production a bit

If he repeated a 70pt pace next year and held out to be a UFA, he'll get paid closer to the Bobby Ryan level I think

yeah with New jersey, Nashville, Anaheim, NYI (especially LW), Vancouver (just to name the ones we know of) looking for scoring I think JVR wont have issues getting what he wants/is worth in UFA.

Bobby Ryan has 1 season at 71 points, 1 season at 64 points and 4 seasons at 50 points

JVR has 1 at 61, 1 at 56. Last year in 41 games had 15g 20A 35points so 70 point pace and the year before 40 games 14 g 15A 29 59 point pace.

so pretty comparable with Ryans best years all coming in Anaheim where as JVR's best years are the years leading to UFA


edit: Also JVR needs 2 70 point years to get near Ryans contract when Ryan had one a long time before he signed with ottawa

 

[Kurisu]

He's been paid peanuts for his production for years why wouldn't he cash in? He deserves to
People around here talk about taking a 5 million dollar paycut on his next contact like it's nothing
That's a whole lot of love if he's willing to do that

Would you?

When he signed his contract at the time, he was paid fairly. Market is different now. You sound like just trade him off because your just assuming he's gonna ask for the moon. Deal with JVR in the summer. If he's open to resigning at a reasonable cost, it's worth resigning him. If you can't, you move him. Signing him doesn't prevent us from trading him in the future if we have too. Losing his offence is going to hurt this team whether you like him or not, even if you replace him with a top 4 defender.

 

[Barilko14]

if he is happy here he will try to stay agreed, but he will not take under $6 there is no way. Where do you get your %'s from up there 75% of high calibre players resign if true is probably because their current team offers them what they think they are worth plus an extra year possibly why test the market for a million more, what you want JVR for >$6 is not what he is close to being worth. All JVR level players I can think of last FA left their original team though Ladd,Osposo, Lucic very comparable players

Some recent examples:

Panarain - $6M (yes he's RFA, but that's below market value, and he's 25)
Marchand - $6.125 - would have gotten more on open market, alot more
Steen - $5.75 for 4 yrs - would have got more term on open market
Stepan - $6.5 - took less years
Perreault - team friendly term

 

[Walshy7]

When he signed his contract at the time, he was paid fairly. Market is different now. You sound like just trade him off because your just assuming he's gonna ask for the moon. Deal with JVR in the summer. If he's open to resigning at a reasonable cost, it's worth resigning him. If you can't, you move him. Signing him doesn't prevent us from trading him in the future if we have too. Losing his offence is going to hurt this team whether you like him or not, even if you replace him with a top 4 defender.

Unless it is 5years at >$6M he is not worth signing. JVR has 0 intangibles and will not be tradable, if his offense drops with age he is an anchor around our necks at the exact wrong time. A lot of scoring players drop off at 30,31,32

 

[Walshy7]

Some recent examples:

Panarain - $6M (yes he's RFA, but that's below market value, and he's 25)
Marchand - $6.125 - would have gotten more on open market, alot more
Steen - $5.75 for 4 yrs - would have got more term on open market
Stepan - $6.5 - took less years
Perreault - team friendly term

I guess we wait and see, unless its a steen or panarin deal, the other ones are not interesting to me in the slightest for JVR on this team

 

[Kurisu]

Unless it is 5years at >$6M he is not worth signing. JVR has 0 intangibles and will not be tradable, if his offense drops with age he is an anchor around our necks at the exact wrong time. A lot of scoring players drop off at 30,31,32

alot of if's with you. If it were the case, we should ignore UFA all together.

 

[Rick74*]

I'm curious exactly who we have to replace JVR should he go?

I mean you are obviously creating a hole on Marner's line...just who the hell is going to fill it?

 

[Randy Randerson]

If he's playing with the same line mates next year with the same sort of use age he's got every chance of hitting 70 points again
Marner could be even better next year
Imagine his point totals with that

There's always a risk of injury or regression...like Bautista is an extreme example but one year of still alright hitting took his number from $125M/5 years (rumoured) to $35-40M/2 years (still rumoured, I guess)

No doubt that his numbers could stay as good or even improve, I think he'd be willing to give up the chance of an extra $5Mil over the course of 5-6 years to guarantee the $30-$39M over 5-6 years...wouldn't take a whole lot to make him more of a Semin type contract where he gets similar money on a shorter term to prove that he's still got it (after either injury or regression). I like the bargaining position that Lou is in if he does it over the summer rather than waiting until there's less risk for JVR later in the year

yeah with New jersey, Nashville, Anaheim, NYI (especially LW), Vancouver (just to name the ones we know of) looking for scoring I think JVR wont have issues getting what he wants/is worth in UFA.

Bobby Ryan has 1 season at 71 points, 1 season at 64 points and 4 seasons at 50 points

JVR has 1 at 61, 1 at 56. Last year in 41 games had 15g 20A 35points so 70 point pace and the year before 40 games 14 g 15A 29 59 point pace.

so pretty comparable with Ryans best years all coming in Anaheim where as JVR's best years are the years leading to UFA


edit: Also JVR needs 2 70 point years to get near Ryans contract when Ryan had one a long time before he signed with ottawa

I think Ryan is a bit of an anomaly, he got paid like a #2OA pick who had 4 years of 30-35 goals and honestly looked like the next tier up from JVR, but who also played with Getzlaf and Perry who obviously inflated his numbers

If JVR had back to back ~70pt years heading into free agency, I agree that he'll get $7.5M and maybe more.

Okposo looks like a good comp too - he's had one 69pt year, one 64pt year, a 50 and change etc - but his numbers were all on shortened seasons, 71 pt pace for his last 3 years in NY and still only got $6M..x 7 years though

 

[Kurisu]

I'm curious exactly who we have to replace JVR should he go?

I mean you are obviously creating a hole on Marner's line...just who the hell is going to fill it?

Kapanen even though we don't know how he's gonna perform and he's missed alot of games the past 2 years.