101st_fan
I taught Yoda
The Saros deal is in line with how the league operates. How do y'all think things actually work?
I'll take that over giving him 8 years with a NMC too boot. Signing him for 8 years, giving it to him in a version where you only option is too simply buy it out, isn't smart.The Saros contract is like the Stamkos, Skjei and Marchessault contracts. They all can potentially hamstring the hell out of us. But if we play too hard with Saros and he walks after next year then we are trying to win in our two or three year window with an unproven goalie
Plus we actually had real leverage in the Saros situation. Several other teams could have and would have matched those contracts for Skjei, Marchessault, and Stamkos. Absolutely no other team was bidding against us on Saros.I'll take that over giving him 8 years with a NMC too boot. Signing him for 8 years, giving it to him in a version where you only option is too simply buy it out, isn't smart.
Those other contracts can hamstring you, but outside the Skej one they won't do it for very long. The Saros one has the potential to do it for a pretty long time.
Worst case scenario if you push him away is you bring in a Kuemper/Talbot as a stopgap for Askarov. There's a drop-off but if the team quality is sufficient they get you through the regular season well enough. They don't win you a playoff series probably but Saros hasn't shown signs of doing that either.I'll take that over giving him 8 years with a NMC too boot. Signing him for 8 years, giving it to him in a version where you only option is too simply buy it out, isn't smart.
Those other contracts can hamstring you, but outside the Skej one they won't do it for very long. The Saros one has the potential to do it for a pretty long time.
But that totally defeats the purpose of upgrading with all those forwards. If you add all that you gotta think Saros can win in the playoffs.Worst case scenario if you push him away is you bring in a Kuemper/Talbot as a stopgap for Askarov. There's a drop-off but if the team quality is sufficient they get you through the regular season well enough. They don't win you a playoff series probably but Saros hasn't shown signs of doing that either.
Does it? Saros hasn't really shown me anything that makes me believe he is the difference in a series win.But that totally defeats the purpose of upgrading with all those forwards. If you add all that you gotta think Saros can win in the playoffs.
I don't think he's proven he significantly increases our odds of doing so. At least not to the tune of 8 additional years with that extent of NTC/NMC.But that totally defeats the purpose of upgrading with all those forwards. If you add all that you gotta think Saros can win in the playoffs.
My point was, if you're gonna make those moves up front, it signals a belief that Saros can win in the playoffs with better goal support. And you don't make those moves while knowingly downgrading in goal, that would be self defeating.Does it? Saros hasn't really shown me anything that makes me believe he is the difference in a series win.
If Askarov is good enough to be in the NHL then he's our insurance against injury or Saros suckage during this 2 to 3 year window. It's not always about trading someone just because they have value. I realize we aren't used to a full on "go for it" mentality around here but the idea that if there isn't the "final destination" spot(in this case starting goalie) available for a prospect we should trade them because the might lose value is not the way to look at things in a window like this.To the people wanting to hold on to Askarov, what's your long-term plan here?
Askarov's value is higher now than it might ever be.
Assuming he lights up the AHL and gets his chance as the backup, what's the play then? In that scenario he has proven that he can play in the NHL and won't want to be stuck behind Saros for 8 years. He's going to ask for a trade which could hinder his value around the league as teams know we HAVE TO move him.
Also, we're opening up a three-year window right now. How good would a guy like Savoie do for our chances to win in that window? Kind of like a Johnston/Stankoven -situation in Dallas.
It's never the way to look at things. Let them actually mature in the AHL, if they're good enough to challenge for the starter spot then the team will make room, if they never do get to that point then trade for whatever you can get. You'll never know you have a gem that can play at a high level because you're worried about the difference between a 3rd and 4th round draft pick in return.If Askarov is good enough to be in the NHL then he's our insurance against injury or Saros suckage during this 2 to 3 year window. It's not always about trading someone just because they have value. I realize we aren't used to a full on "go for it" mentality around here but the idea that if there isn't the "final destination" spot(in this case starting goalie) available for a prospect we should trade them because the might lose value is not the way to look at things in a window like this.
Anyway, I'm not actually believing that it even got into the realm of worrying about Saros leaving the team... either walking as a UFA, or us trading him because we didn't like his contract demands. There just should have been a lot of wiggle room to sign him to a lesser contract. Or to wait and see next season if he was really going to be worthy of that contract. There was nothing forcing Trotz's hand to be this generous this soon. Maybe Saros would have had a stellar season next year and then forced his hand. Ok. I'd rather collect that data and see, rather than making an unnecessary gamble right now, given the season we just saw from Saros.My point was, if you're gonna make those moves up front, it signals a belief that Saros can win in the playoffs with better goal support. And you don't make those moves while knowingly downgrading in goal, that would be self defeating.
I mean, the buyout on Saros' contract isn't completely indigestible. Given what we've already seen. The worst case is probably if you bought him out in 4 or fewer seasons, then you start to get the hits from the frontloads. So say we bought out the last 5 years of the contract, in June 2028. It's really only that 1 season of serious pain on the buyout, the remaining 9 years are fairly manageable.How?
I don't think Savoie is a good enough prospect for me to trade Askarov. Savoie seems like he'll be a complementary small top-6 forward, if he makes it. A 5'9" guy who can score 20-30 goals isn't really a "core piece" to me. You can sign a guy like that on the UFA market any time you want one. Whereas a true #1 goalie could be a true core player. So I'm content to keep waiting.To the people wanting to hold on to Askarov, what's your long-term plan here?
Askarov's value is higher now than it might ever be.
Assuming he lights up the AHL and gets his chance as the backup, what's the play then? In that scenario he has proven that he can play in the NHL and won't want to be stuck behind Saros for 8 years. He's going to ask for a trade which could hinder his value around the league as teams know we HAVE TO move him.
Also, we're opening up a three-year window right now. How good would a guy like Savoie do for our chances to win in that window? Kind of like a Johnston/Stankoven -situation in Dallas.
It's almost like they pay Trotz millions a year to figure that stuff out. Keyboard warriors aren't paid and don't know everything, it's okay.How?
Look at all the teams who just got goalies this summer, at pretty reasonable prices, despite seemingly being in somewhat desperate-looking straits. It's just not that hard to get a decent goalie. And without tying yourself down to unreasonable terms. In the highly unlikely even that Saros would even choose to go to market (he really wants to be in Nashville), then replacing him would not be any great challenge. Or if he had a good enough season in 2024-25 to fully warrant getting 8x9+NMC, then at least he'd have earned it, and it's not any significantly different contract than what he just got coming off a poor season, so those of us whining about it would at least have the high performance data in hand to reassure us.And if we wait and Saros has a good year he's probably getting 8x9 or more and will still get the NMC. And if he has an average year he still get 8x8 and an NMC. Trotz has opened a three year window. There is no way he's going to risk having a use a scrap heap goalie for the last two of those years. So there really isn't a scenario where we could have Saros for this whole window without an 8 year deal with an NMC
Askarov's value is only higher now if you think he's not going to continue to develop. The goalie situation is the same now as it will be in 3 years with Saros blocking any clear path to a starter role. I think you hold onto Askarov and ask for a big return and if its not there just keep holding which is exactly what Trotz seems to be doing. If Askarov keeps developing well his value should only improve.To the people wanting to hold on to Askarov, what's your long-term plan here?
Askarov's value is higher now than it might ever be.
Assuming he lights up the AHL and gets his chance as the backup, what's the play then? In that scenario he has proven that he can play in the NHL and won't want to be stuck behind Saros for 8 years. He's going to ask for a trade which could hinder his value around the league as teams know we HAVE TO move him.
Also, we're opening up a three-year window right now. How good would a guy like Savoie do for our chances to win in that window? Kind of like a Johnston/Stankoven -situation in Dallas.
Or, it should only improve up until we end up over a barrel anyway. If he's making trade ultimatums or threatening to go back to Russia one day, or if there's an Expansion Draft, then his value could be tanked.Askarov's value is only higher now if you think he's not going to continue to develop. The goalie situation is the same now as it will be in 3 years with Saros blocking any clear path to a starter role. I think you hold onto Askarov and ask for a big return and if its not there just keep holding which is exactly what Trotz seems to be doing. If Askarov keeps developing well his value should only improve.
How?
It's almost like they pay Trotz millions a year to figure that stuff out. Keyboard warriors aren't paid and don't know everything, it's okay.
Exactly, Askarov's value is only at its highest if you think he isn't getting better. He gets a back up spot and performs well then that is when you will get his highest value.Askarov's value is only higher now if you think he's not going to continue to develop. The goalie situation is the same now as it will be in 3 years with Saros blocking any clear path to a starter role. I think you hold onto Askarov and ask for a big return and if its not there just keep holding which is exactly what Trotz seems to be doing. If Askarov keeps developing well his value should only improve.
I wouldn't say they aren't in the way, 8-9 million in dead space could get you one heck of another player. That said buying out Saros in 4 years doesn't kill you if Askarov turns into the goalie he was drafted to be.I get not liking the contract (and of course, discussing it) but I don't understand acting like this is going to be some huge team killer or acting like Askarov has diminishing value from here on out just because Saros has a long term contract
Over the last seven years Poile and now Trotz have signed contracts that were said to have the same issues. Yet, here we are with none of those contracts being in the way of Trotz building the team he wants.
Yeah you can certainly work around having to get rid of bad contracts but that doesn't mean they aren't problematic. At a minimum, because of the Duchene, Johansen, Turris contracts we're going to have to get rid of someone we would otherwise keep this year and as you say we could have added another good player into the mix without the dead cap hit we have.I wouldn't say they aren't in the way, 8-9 million in dead space could get you one heck of another player.