Confirmed with Link: Juuse Saros Extended

[101st_fan]

The Saros deal is in line with how the league operates. How do y'all think things actually work?

 

[Armourboy]

The Saros contract is like the Stamkos, Skjei and Marchessault contracts. They all can potentially hamstring the hell out of us. But if we play too hard with Saros and he walks after next year then we are trying to win in our two or three year window with an unproven goalie

I'll take that over giving him 8 years with a NMC too boot. Signing him for 8 years, giving it to him in a version where you only option is too simply buy it out, isn't smart.

Those other contracts can hamstring you, but outside the Skej one they won't do it for very long. The Saros one has the potential to do it for a pretty long time.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I'll take that over giving him 8 years with a NMC too boot. Signing him for 8 years, giving it to him in a version where you only option is too simply buy it out, isn't smart.

Those other contracts can hamstring you, but outside the Skej one they won't do it for very long. The Saros one has the potential to do it for a pretty long time.

Plus we actually had real leverage in the Saros situation. Several other teams could have and would have matched those contracts for Skjei, Marchessault, and Stamkos. Absolutely no other team was bidding against us on Saros.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I'll take that over giving him 8 years with a NMC too boot. Signing him for 8 years, giving it to him in a version where you only option is too simply buy it out, isn't smart.

Those other contracts can hamstring you, but outside the Skej one they won't do it for very long. The Saros one has the potential to do it for a pretty long time.

Worst case scenario if you push him away is you bring in a Kuemper/Talbot as a stopgap for Askarov. There's a drop-off but if the team quality is sufficient they get you through the regular season well enough. They don't win you a playoff series probably but Saros hasn't shown signs of doing that either.

 

[PredsV82]

Worst case scenario if you push him away is you bring in a Kuemper/Talbot as a stopgap for Askarov. There's a drop-off but if the team quality is sufficient they get you through the regular season well enough. They don't win you a playoff series probably but Saros hasn't shown signs of doing that either.

But that totally defeats the purpose of upgrading with all those forwards. If you add all that you gotta think Saros can win in the playoffs.

 

[Armourboy]

But that totally defeats the purpose of upgrading with all those forwards. If you add all that you gotta think Saros can win in the playoffs.

Does it? Saros hasn't really shown me anything that makes me believe he is the difference in a series win.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

But that totally defeats the purpose of upgrading with all those forwards. If you add all that you gotta think Saros can win in the playoffs.

I don't think he's proven he significantly increases our odds of doing so. At least not to the tune of 8 additional years with that extent of NTC/NMC.

 

[Scoresberg]

To the people wanting to hold on to Askarov, what's your long-term plan here?

Askarov's value is higher now than it might ever be.

Assuming he lights up the AHL and gets his chance as the backup, what's the play then? In that scenario he has proven that he can play in the NHL and won't want to be stuck behind Saros for 8 years. He's going to ask for a trade which could hinder his value around the league as teams know we HAVE TO move him.

Also, we're opening up a three-year window right now. How good would a guy like Savoie do for our chances to win in that window? Kind of like a Johnston/Stankoven -situation in Dallas.

 

[PredsV82]

Does it? Saros hasn't really shown me anything that makes me believe he is the difference in a series win.

My point was, if you're gonna make those moves up front, it signals a belief that Saros can win in the playoffs with better goal support. And you don't make those moves while knowingly downgrading in goal, that would be self defeating.

 

[PredsV82]

To the people wanting to hold on to Askarov, what's your long-term plan here?

Askarov's value is higher now than it might ever be.

Assuming he lights up the AHL and gets his chance as the backup, what's the play then? In that scenario he has proven that he can play in the NHL and won't want to be stuck behind Saros for 8 years. He's going to ask for a trade which could hinder his value around the league as teams know we HAVE TO move him.

Also, we're opening up a three-year window right now. How good would a guy like Savoie do for our chances to win in that window? Kind of like a Johnston/Stankoven -situation in Dallas.

If Askarov is good enough to be in the NHL then he's our insurance against injury or Saros suckage during this 2 to 3 year window. It's not always about trading someone just because they have value. I realize we aren't used to a full on "go for it" mentality around here but the idea that if there isn't the "final destination" spot(in this case starting goalie) available for a prospect we should trade them because the might lose value is not the way to look at things in a window like this.

 

[herzausstein]

With the UFA spending spree, it makes sense that Trotz has decided to extend Saros. He sees a couple year window to best utilize the remaining peak years of what the core is today (forsberg, josi, ror).

Askarov and most of the young wingers are probably too far out to be able to fully utilize before the core declines.

I personally dont think this is a group you double down on but i do think it will make for some entertaining hockey and might just surprise us. Now what do we do with Askarov and other spare parts? Not sure.

Askarov can get as far as backup goalie before we find ourselves in a possible Luongo/Schneider situation. Personally i listen on all offers and if the right one comes along take it. It would be nice if he beat wedgewood out of camp and became backup for the season. Id like to see saros start share drop now since we are bound to him for eternity.

Parssinen, Tomasino, and Del Gaizo all require waivers and it will be dicey to get them through (except maybe del gaizo). We dont have the cap for em. do we now make cap for them or trade them off. Probably want some room for callups so im sure there is a trade comin at some point but who?

 

[nine_inch_fang]

If Askarov is good enough to be in the NHL then he's our insurance against injury or Saros suckage during this 2 to 3 year window. It's not always about trading someone just because they have value. I realize we aren't used to a full on "go for it" mentality around here but the idea that if there isn't the "final destination" spot(in this case starting goalie) available for a prospect we should trade them because the might lose value is not the way to look at things in a window like this.

It's never the way to look at things. Let them actually mature in the AHL, if they're good enough to challenge for the starter spot then the team will make room, if they never do get to that point then trade for whatever you can get. You'll never know you have a gem that can play at a high level because you're worried about the difference between a 3rd and 4th round draft pick in return.

 

[Scoresberg]

then the team will make room

How?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

My point was, if you're gonna make those moves up front, it signals a belief that Saros can win in the playoffs with better goal support. And you don't make those moves while knowingly downgrading in goal, that would be self defeating.

Anyway, I'm not actually believing that it even got into the realm of worrying about Saros leaving the team... either walking as a UFA, or us trading him because we didn't like his contract demands. There just should have been a lot of wiggle room to sign him to a lesser contract. Or to wait and see next season if he was really going to be worthy of that contract. There was nothing forcing Trotz's hand to be this generous this soon. Maybe Saros would have had a stellar season next year and then forced his hand. Ok. I'd rather collect that data and see, rather than making an unnecessary gamble right now, given the season we just saw from Saros.

The bottom line is I just don't share Trotz's BELIEF in Saros. And I feel like I have always been one of the bigger Saros supporters around here, while historically you have been one of his bigger detractors! So it's an interesting juxtaposition!

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

How?

I mean, the buyout on Saros' contract isn't completely indigestible. Given what we've already seen. The worst case is probably if you bought him out in 4 or fewer seasons, then you start to get the hits from the frontloads. So say we bought out the last 5 years of the contract, in June 2028. It's really only that 1 season of serious pain on the buyout, the remaining 9 years are fairly manageable.

Or if you waited another year and did the buyout in 2029, then you're here:

So it's not that we'll ever be absolutely completely impossibly trapped. Just it seems so unnecessary to me to even need to be talking about this at all. It should have been avoidable. Easily avoidable.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

To the people wanting to hold on to Askarov, what's your long-term plan here?

Askarov's value is higher now than it might ever be.

Assuming he lights up the AHL and gets his chance as the backup, what's the play then? In that scenario he has proven that he can play in the NHL and won't want to be stuck behind Saros for 8 years. He's going to ask for a trade which could hinder his value around the league as teams know we HAVE TO move him.

Also, we're opening up a three-year window right now. How good would a guy like Savoie do for our chances to win in that window? Kind of like a Johnston/Stankoven -situation in Dallas.

I don't think Savoie is a good enough prospect for me to trade Askarov. Savoie seems like he'll be a complementary small top-6 forward, if he makes it. A 5'9" guy who can score 20-30 goals isn't really a "core piece" to me. You can sign a guy like that on the UFA market any time you want one. Whereas a true #1 goalie could be a true core player. So I'm content to keep waiting.

Maybe Askarov lights up the AHL and progresses as hoped, or maybe he can never really learn the technical side of the game well enough to even stick in the NHL at all. I think the key is that we're just too early in his trajectory to really make a good guess yet. Well, we as fans are anyway. The team which actually works with him and studies him and has gotten to know his approach to training and his thinking and his willingness to learn will have a much better idea. Maybe the Preds already think he's a lost cause, who knows. In which case, ok, if you really believe that, then trading him even for a Savoie would be fine. But since we aren't privy to that insider viewpoint, I'll just continue to take things at face value, that he's making acceptable progress and is still seen as a guy who is expected to transition to the NHL in the next couple years, and still has the upside to be a top starter in the league... in which case I need a better trade.

One thing we don't need to do is pay any attention whatsoever to any requests or demands that he or his agent make. We own his rights for 5 more years. If he wants to make threats or issue ultimatums, I would 100% call his bluff. Let him go to the KHL, if that's what he wants. He actually seems like a pretty happy-go-lucky guy who won't actually want to do any of that stuff, to me. But if I'm Trotz, that wasn't my pick, that's not my investment, and if the guy simply isn't good enough to make my team or to yield a trade return that isn't something I can easily find via other methods, then he can go pound salt.

 

[triggrman]

How?

It's almost like they pay Trotz millions a year to figure that stuff out. Keyboard warriors aren't paid and don't know everything, it's okay.

 

[PredsV82]

Savoie just got traded for, so I can't see Edmonton flipping him.

And if we wait and Saros has a good year he's probably getting 8x9 or more and will still get the NMC. And if he has an average year he still get 8x8 and an NMC. Trotz has opened a three year window. There is no way he's going to risk having a use a scrap heap goalie for the last two of those years. So there really isn't a scenario where we could have Saros for this whole window without an 8 year deal with an NMC

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

And if we wait and Saros has a good year he's probably getting 8x9 or more and will still get the NMC. And if he has an average year he still get 8x8 and an NMC. Trotz has opened a three year window. There is no way he's going to risk having a use a scrap heap goalie for the last two of those years. So there really isn't a scenario where we could have Saros for this whole window without an 8 year deal with an NMC

Look at all the teams who just got goalies this summer, at pretty reasonable prices, despite seemingly being in somewhat desperate-looking straits. It's just not that hard to get a decent goalie. And without tying yourself down to unreasonable terms. In the highly unlikely even that Saros would even choose to go to market (he really wants to be in Nashville), then replacing him would not be any great challenge. Or if he had a good enough season in 2024-25 to fully warrant getting 8x9+NMC, then at least he'd have earned it, and it's not any significantly different contract than what he just got coming off a poor season, so those of us whining about it would at least have the high performance data in hand to reassure us.

I wouldn't mind an 8x9 NMC contract for a Vezina-worthy Saros, for sure. Just, he was very far from that last season, and to me that's too big a contract to award to somebody who simply didn't perform up to those standards last season. You shouldn't reward mediocrity like that. Not when you don't have to.

 

[Predsanddead24]

To the people wanting to hold on to Askarov, what's your long-term plan here?

Askarov's value is higher now than it might ever be.

Assuming he lights up the AHL and gets his chance as the backup, what's the play then? In that scenario he has proven that he can play in the NHL and won't want to be stuck behind Saros for 8 years. He's going to ask for a trade which could hinder his value around the league as teams know we HAVE TO move him.

Also, we're opening up a three-year window right now. How good would a guy like Savoie do for our chances to win in that window? Kind of like a Johnston/Stankoven -situation in Dallas.

Askarov's value is only higher now if you think he's not going to continue to develop. The goalie situation is the same now as it will be in 3 years with Saros blocking any clear path to a starter role. I think you hold onto Askarov and ask for a big return and if its not there just keep holding which is exactly what Trotz seems to be doing. If Askarov keeps developing well his value should only improve.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Askarov's value is only higher now if you think he's not going to continue to develop. The goalie situation is the same now as it will be in 3 years with Saros blocking any clear path to a starter role. I think you hold onto Askarov and ask for a big return and if its not there just keep holding which is exactly what Trotz seems to be doing. If Askarov keeps developing well his value should only improve.

Or, it should only improve up until we end up over a barrel anyway. If he's making trade ultimatums or threatening to go back to Russia one day, or if there's an Expansion Draft, then his value could be tanked.

The trade market has always been tepid on goaltenders anyway, but on young goaltenders who have never been NHL starters, even if they are considered great prospects, I don't know if there has ever been one traded for anything worthwhile? People talk about the Corey Schneider precedent, but even he had a few NHL seasons under his belt and was really pushing Luongo and putting up stellar numbers in the NHL before he was traded. Askarov as a top AHL starter/young NHL backup might not even garner a 1st. And then if his value is a 2nd or lower, I'd be more inclined to just call any of his bluffs or let him go as our Expansion loss, because losing out on the equivalent of a 2nd round pick really isn't any significant loss. Just losing him in Expansion is probably as good in terms of asset valuation as whoever else we'd lose instead.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

How?

It's almost like they pay Trotz millions a year to figure that stuff out. Keyboard warriors aren't paid and don't know everything, it's okay.

I get not liking the contract (and of course, discussing it) but I don't understand acting like this is going to be some huge team killer or acting like Askarov has diminishing value from here on out just because Saros has a long term contract

Over the last seven years Poile and now Trotz have signed contracts that were said to have the same issues. Yet, here we are with none of those contracts being in the way of Trotz building the team he wants.

 

[Armourboy]

Askarov's value is only higher now if you think he's not going to continue to develop. The goalie situation is the same now as it will be in 3 years with Saros blocking any clear path to a starter role. I think you hold onto Askarov and ask for a big return and if its not there just keep holding which is exactly what Trotz seems to be doing. If Askarov keeps developing well his value should only improve.

Exactly, Askarov's value is only at its highest if you think he isn't getting better. He gets a back up spot and performs well then that is when you will get his highest value.

The truth is he probably doesn't even have the value of the pick we drafted him with, and whatever Trotz is being offered isn't enough to make him pull the trigger.

Askarov wants to be in the NHL then he just needs to beat out Wedgewood, which isn't impossible nor does it hinder us if he does. He gets a shot at camp, but he lost his other chance when he wasn't so hot and got hurt in the playoffs.

If that's not good enough then he can go back to Russia and be stuck there for the next 5 years, which at that point he might as well have just stayed as a backup and tried to beat out Saros.

 

[Armourboy]

I get not liking the contract (and of course, discussing it) but I don't understand acting like this is going to be some huge team killer or acting like Askarov has diminishing value from here on out just because Saros has a long term contract

Over the last seven years Poile and now Trotz have signed contracts that were said to have the same issues. Yet, here we are with none of those contracts being in the way of Trotz building the team he wants.

I wouldn't say they aren't in the way, 8-9 million in dead space could get you one heck of another player. That said buying out Saros in 4 years doesn't kill you if Askarov turns into the goalie he was drafted to be.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I wouldn't say they aren't in the way, 8-9 million in dead space could get you one heck of another player.

Yeah you can certainly work around having to get rid of bad contracts but that doesn't mean they aren't problematic. At a minimum, because of the Duchene, Johansen, Turris contracts we're going to have to get rid of someone we would otherwise keep this year and as you say we could have added another good player into the mix without the dead cap hit we have.