Luke DeCock: Justin Faulk Speculation

[MinJaBen]

Sara had an article up on the Athletic about the Faulk trade situation yesterday. It's mostly a timeline of events that get us to this point. I found one point in the timeline interesting:

• It’s been my understanding as of last Friday that the Hurricanes have had a deal for Faulk in place to a team on his partial No-Trade list, meaning he’d have to waive the clause. The ever-reliable Elliotte Friedman reported Monday that the team is Anaheim, though he described the situation as intense discussion, not exactly a done deal.

So that would indicate that the Faulk camp and the Ducks have been negotiating over contract terms for at least five days at this point. Given that nothing has been announced yet, I'm going to guess that this may drag out a while or, more likely to me, is not going to happen at all.

 

[GoldiFox]

I wonder if the NHL/NHLPA September 15th deadline for the next round of CBA negotiations could be holding up Anaheim. If the NHLPA exercises their option to re-open negotiations in 2020 then the likelihood of a lockout increases.

 

[Lempo]

Sara had an article up on the Athletic about the Faulk trade situation yesterday. It's mostly a timeline of events that get us to this point. I found one point in the timeline interesting:



So that would indicate that the Faulk camp and the Ducks have been negotiating over contract terms for at least five days at this point. Given that nothing has been announced yet, I'm going to guess that this may drag out a while or, more likely to me, is not going to happen at all.

Well, September 15 is an important day, as it's the deadline for NHLPA to terminate the CBA to end after this season. I would guess in this tight cap situation and because of real money too everyone wants to wait to see if there can/will/won't be a lockout in cards for 2020-21, because that knowledge will immensely help with the contract jockeying and setting up the lockout protections (mainly for the elite players I'd think).

 

[DaveG]

Shit forgot that was coming up so soon. May explain any wait as Justin will want that as guaranteed money that year in bonuses if at all possible for income and tax purposes

 

[Lempo]

If the CBA will be terminated now, 2020 will be a non-optimal summer to become a Free Agent. I would guess guaranteed money isn't readily available for the starting season, and the signing circus may lack the worst urgency causing the expensive mistakes.

Which is a reason for Faulk to get extended now.

 

[My Special Purpose]

He wouldn't survive in vacuum. He'd burst, and his SPC terminate.

I'm not so sure. Justin is tough. I could see him surviving in a vacuum.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm not so sure. Justin is tough. I could see him surviving in a vacuum.

Survive maybe. It would sure suck though.

 

[NotOpie]

I'm not so sure. Justin is tough. I could see him surviving in a vacuum.

Survive maybe. It would sure suck though.

I'm assuming you guys have dad bods to go with those dad jokes.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm assuming you guys have dad bods to go with those dad jokes.

Oh, look at Mr. "get off my lawn".

 

[Roboturner913]

He wouldn't survive in vacuum. He'd burst, and his SPC terminate.

I survived in a vacuum once. It was one of these

 

[Lempo]

I survived in a vacuum once. It was one of these

I have seen my share of cocky Leafs fans on HF, but a Leafs vacuum is a new thing.

 

[Svechhammer]

I just had a NHL alert come across my phone and I got real excited that it was announced

Nope - just that camp rosters and lineups have been set.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I don't expect any Faulk trade until at least the end of the week. I do buy the theory thrown around that September 15th is the crucial date due to lockout implications. Anaheim seems like a good landing spot for him long-term considering that they're knee-deep in excellent forward prospects, so I don't think that he's going to be too hesitant to sign an extension with them.

 

[NotOpie]

Oh, look at Mr. "get off my lawn".

Hey, you know I'm not that guy....as long as you bring snacks....they said there'd be snacks.

 

[MinJaBen]

Saw this yesterday. The Ducks beat writer on the Athletic had a Q&A session with the fans and some of the discussion was about the Faulk trade. Here are the most relevant responses:

Obviously, there is more in there, including about Faulk, but I think these are the most interesting.



Ducks Q&A recap: Eric Stephens on Patrik Laine rumors, Justin Faulk rumors and a Dion Phaneuf PTO possibility

 

[GoldiFox]

Saw this yesterday. The Ducks beat writer on the Athletic had a Q&A session with the fans and some of the discussion was about the Faulk trade. Here are the most relevant responses:

View attachment 254087

View attachment 254089

View attachment 254091

Obviously, there is more in there, including about Faulk, but I think these are the most interesting.



Ducks Q&A recap: Eric Stephens on Patrik Laine rumors, Justin Faulk rumors and a Dion Phaneuf PTO possibility

2nd snip:
"I'd say his camp is listening to other extension offers as well from teams on his NTC list that are interested in dealing for him"

I'm not sure it makes sense that the Canes would allow Faulk to talk contract extensions with teams other than Anaheim right now. Unless they have deals in place that they like with each of those teams. The Canes are super high on Kase and the entire league seems to think it would be a great deal for the Canes. That is the player they want.

It seems self defeating to allow Faulk to work out his ideal contract extension with an approved team and then discuss the value with that team. What if their offer is a 4th round pick? At that point Faulk and the other team already have mutual interest and an agreed contract value. They could both just hunker down and wait for next offseason.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Again, I think any extension will get done by the 15th. I'm not too concerned about it either way. Faulk is now a wanted commodity with Gardiner signed and the UFA market officially barren, and if the Faulk-Kase deal falls apart, there are always fall-back options.

 

[MinJaBen]

2nd snip:
"I'd say his camp is listening to other extension offers as well from teams on his NTC list that are interested in dealing for him"

I'm not sure it makes sense that the Canes would allow Faulk to talk contract extensions with teams other than Anaheim right now. Unless they have deals in place that they like with each of those teams. The Canes are super high on Kase and the entire league seems to think it would be a great deal for the Canes. That is the player they want.

It seems self defeating to allow Faulk to work out his ideal contract extension with an approved team and then discuss the value with that team. What if their offer is a 4th round pick? At that point Faulk and the other team already have mutual interest and an agreed contract value. They could both just hunker down and wait for next offseason.

The counterpoint to that is that Anaheim may have the best offer, but the Faulk camp might wrongly assume they'd get more without the knowledge of those negotiations, and thus block the deal. By letting them talk to other options for the Canes, it may set a market for Faulk where he realizes the Ducks are a good choice for him.

 

[Chrispy]

2nd snip:
"I'd say his camp is listening to other extension offers as well from teams on his NTC list that are interested in dealing for him"

I'm not sure it makes sense that the Canes would allow Faulk to talk contract extensions with teams other than Anaheim right now. Unless they have deals in place that they like with each of those teams. The Canes are super high on Kase and the entire league seems to think it would be a great deal for the Canes. That is the player they want.

It seems self defeating to allow Faulk to work out his ideal contract extension with an approved team and then discuss the value with that team. What if their offer is a 4th round pick? At that point Faulk and the other team already have mutual interest and an agreed contract value. They could both just hunker down and wait for next offseason.

The Canes gave Faulk and his agent permission to seek out a trade partner earlier. Hard to take that back now that you are negotiating with Anaheim exclusively.

And Carolina doesn't have to listen to Faulk's choice. His NTC is only 15 teams; that leaves half the league where he can be dealt without any restrictions or extension in place. A deal to a team on his no-trade list, like Anaheim, only works if:
1) the team makes an offer of value to Carolina
2) Faulk agrees to go there, probably due to an extension he will sign.

A different team with an extension offer offering a 4th round pick would lead to Carolina dealing Faulk to a team he hasn't blocked, almost certainly for more than a 4th round pick.

 

[GoldiFox]

The Canes gave Faulk and his agent permission to seek out a trade partner earlier. Hard to take that back now that you are negotiating with Anaheim exclusively.

And Carolina doesn't have to listen to Faulk's choice. His NTC is only 15 teams; that leaves half the league where he can be dealt without any restrictions or extension in place. A deal to a team on his no-trade list, like Anaheim, only works if:
1) the team makes an offer of value to Carolina
2) Faulk agrees to go there, probably due to an extension he will sign.

A different team with an extension offer offering a 4th round pick would lead to Carolina dealing Faulk to a team he hasn't blocked, almost certainly for more than a 4th round pick.

I didn't register that the Canes had given Faulk's agent free reign to find a trade partner and work out an extension. I agree they wouldn't take that back just to deal with Anaheim.

History has shown that a player with an extension is worth more than a player without one. If Faulk agrees to an extension with Detroit, but Detroit won't pay up, then the Canes could deal him to (Team B) but they won't get that added value as Faulk's agent and (Team B) will already know Faulk is likely headed to Detroit in a year.

 

[Lempo]

I would guess Faulk gets traded to a team where he gets the best offer, if he is taking offers, and Canes won't be pushing for the best return for themselves if Faulk finds one to his liking.

Call it a severance bonus if you will.

Anaheim may be on the hold while Faulk does this.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I would guess Faulk gets traded to a team where he gets the best offer, if he is taking offers, and Canes won't be pushing for the best return for themselves if Faulk finds one to his liking.

Call it a severance bonus if you will.

Anaheim may be on the hold while Faulk does this.

I mean, Justin definitely has the leverage here to negotiate with teams that are on his ok-trade list, because at the end of the day, we can't force him to accept a deal with Anaheim. I would presume the other teams he's negotiating with are teams that also have decent trades on the table with us, or we'd just say "nope, Justin, not them."

 

[Lempo]

I mean, Justin definitely has the leverage here to negotiate with teams that are on his ok-trade list, because at the end of the day, we can't force him to accept a deal with Anaheim. I would presume the other teams he's negotiating with are teams that also have decent trades on the table with us, or we'd just say "nope, Justin, not them."

I know my view may look a bit idealized, if not downright fantasizing, but I see a legit goodwill value in helping an on-his-way-out player to get the best contract he can have, when you have already pretty much chosen to not try fit his ask in your own cap structure.

The current young core would see that years of good faithful service won't go unrewarded if it comes to that you won't anymore fit in the plans of the team, which plans will evolve rather by the environment than the purely by the organisation's will.

Tom Dundon so cheap he will console you with 45M of someone else's money.

(intra-division trades probably won't fly, though)

 

[NotOpie]

I didn't register that the Canes had given Faulk's agent free reign to find a trade partner and work out an extension. I agree they wouldn't take that back just to deal with Anaheim.

My guess is there's backroom talk between the Canes and Faulk's agent that let's him/them know where possible, realistic trade options exist. It does nobody any good to have those discussions if there's not a viable trade in place. The Faulk value proposition becomes somewhat different based on this season's performance.

I would guess Faulk gets traded to a team where he gets the best offer, if he is taking offers, and Canes won't be pushing for the best return for themselves if Faulk finds one to his liking.

Call it a severance bonus if you will.

That's my sense as well. I think the team will try for the best offer they can get given the limitations of Faulk's NTC 15. If that's Anaheim, then great! If it's Winnipeg, that's great too! If it ends up being for a very good prospect and a 2nd, then it is what it is. I doubt this drags on too long. Once the season starts the team won't want the distraction.

 

[WreckingCrew]

So, speculating our lineup with Kase?

NN-Aho-TT
Svech-Staal-Kase
Dzingel-Haula-Necas
Foegele-Wallmark-Martinook
Extra: McGinn??