If the idea was to pick No1 in order to get a bonafide Joel Armia, I'd say we f***ing miss the target and should have traded down. If the idea is to get a top 6 player, I say make him progress the way he should.
Not sure why I should revise my expectations. Actually the majority of No1 player chosen has not only started in the NHL. They were succesful. And you can go as far as top 3. MY expectations for him is NOT that. Actually it would have been to have him a full year in the AHL LAST year. And it's STILL to have him in the AHL THIS YEAR. Not sure how my expectations are the problems....
Stutzle, Hughes, Draisaitl, Lecavalier, Thornton all had questionable D+1. Dubois was barely a PPG in the Q D+1, yet he had 48 points in the NHL D+2.
Its not about the D+1, especially in the NHL, its all about the progression and growth in the D+2 and D+3. (Inexistant in the case of our two former top picks. But i would argue for caution before claiming it will be inexistant with Slaf too.)
The difference between Yakupov, KK, Galchenyuk is exactly that. Despite them having better D+1 then the 1st group, they all stagnated after this.
The 1st group growth curve kept going parabolic D+2 and after.
Only then can we start to connect the dot. In which category will Slaf fall? Everyone seems to believes the 2nd one, i think there are better odds he fit in the 1st category. Still, nobody know and we will uncover it soon enough.
Now, we speak with autority on the AHL vs NHL subject but the truth is there is no right answer here. You have example of players struggling in the NHL in their D+1 and becoming mega super star. You have example of player playing AHL at 18 and becoming megastar(Rantanen, Pastrnak). You have example of players "developing" in the AHL forever. (Byfield, Turcotte). You have example of players being very good at 18 and busting for other reason than being rushed like drug addictions.
So really, the D+1 is indicative of nothing. Dominating the AHL at 18 VS struggling in the NHL at 18 brings absolutely no factual difference. It only changes the perspective and gives the impression of a smoother, more linear growth curve.
But its simply a false impression, that is backed by nothing, no jurisprudence, no favourable data. Like we believed the flat earth in the 1500, it made sense from our on-earth perspective i guess.
Players dont become worse because they struggle early in the NHL nor do they become better because they dominate junior or AHL more.
Its only when we connect the dot between the D+2 and the D+1 that we can start to have a real picture, brighter idea of the player we have and his potential.