Juraj Slafkovsky - Year Two

[LesCanadiens]

I think he passed the eye test (but not the production test) in pre-season and the first six games of the season. I agreed with posters that argued there was an upwards trend in his play from last year. Regrettably, the last three games he looked rough. It's normal for players (especially young) to have ups and downs but what is unfortunate is during his "up" he didn' produce.

Some people have characterized Slaf's struggles on his linemates. I can understand where that hypothesis comes from; Anderson has yet to click with anyone in a top-6 role and Newhook looked much better as a winger. I think when Dvorak comes back, you can test the linemate hypothesis by stapling Slafkovsky on Monahan's wing for 10 games. Monahan is a vet, plays the game well, and has produced offensively over his two seasons with the Canadiens thus far. If Slafkovsky can't work with Monahan, and still looks like the player we saw the last 3 games, then I think it's hard to argue "it's his linemates" anymore.

At that point it will be end of November/early December. Maybe it will be time for a reset on the development approach.

This is what an intelligent, rational, objective post looks like. Well done. And I agree with every point.

 

[Mrb1p]

I think he passed the eye test (but not the production test) in pre-season and the first six games of the season. I agreed with posters that argued there was an upwards trend in his play from last year. Regrettably, the last three games he looked rough. It's normal for players (especially young) to have ups and downs but what is unfortunate is during his "up" he didn' produce.

Some people have characterized Slaf's struggles on his linemates. I can understand where that hypothesis comes from; Anderson has yet to click with anyone in a top-6 role and Newhook looked much better as a winger. I think when Dvorak comes back, you can test the linemate hypothesis by stapling Slafkovsky on Monahan's wing for 10 games. Monahan is a vet, plays the game well, and has produced offensively over his two seasons with the Canadiens thus far. If Slafkovsky can't work with Monahan, and still looks like the player we saw the last 3 games, then I think it's hard to argue "it's his linemates" anymore.

At that point it will be end of November/early December. Maybe it will be time for a reset on the development approach.

You don't pass the eye-test for 6 games and end up with historically bad GAR and xGAR, sorry. Likely you were being kind to him because you think of him as a future asset.

He had one good game and that was his first, since then it's been AHL level, if even.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Here's a question for the ''stats aren't everything'' crowd: how many games at this low of production would be too many for you guys? Is there any point at which low production would indicate to you that maybe something isn't right? 9 games is about half way there for me. After 15 or so games of little to no production is enough for me to call it. How bout you guys?

 

[Mrb1p]

Here's a question for the ''stats aren't everything'' crowd: how many games at this low of production would be too many for you guys? Is there any point at which low production would indicate to you that maybe something isn't right? 9 games is about half way there for me. After 15 or so games of little to no production is enough for me to call it. How bout you guys?

I mean, in Slafs case, stats should be everything because he visibly looks bad.

 

[NotProkofievian]

I mean, in Slafs case, stats should be everything because he visibly looks bad.

It would be progress to admit that they're something.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Here's a question for the ''stats aren't everything'' crowd: how many games at this low of production would be too many for you guys? Is there any point at which low production would indicate to you that maybe something isn't right? 9 games is about half way there for me. After 15 or so games of little to no production is enough for me to call it. How bout you guys?

Eye test. If he had 4 secondary assists because of lucky touches would his season look any better?

He looks and and isn't producing. I can live with the lack of production, but he doesn't look like he belongs

Just stopped by the prospect board

Could you imagine if we ruined our tank in 2022 and got stuck with a prospect like mintukyov?

Imagine if we had competent scouts, for once?

 

[NotProkofievian]

Eye test. If he had 4 secondary assists because of lucky touches would his season look any better?

He looks and and isn't producing. I can live with the lack of production, but he doesn't look like he belongs

Eye tests are good in small samples, because the variance of small samples is big so you might as well trust your eyes. But as the samples get bigger, the numbers start to tell a story and the eye test is a cope.

If he had 20 points after 20 games, I think we all agree that there wouldn't be a problem. The opposite should be true if he had like 2 points after 20 games.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Eye tests are good in small samples, because the variance of small samples is big so you might as well trust your eyes. But as the samples get bigger, the numbers start to tell a story and the eye test is a cope.

If he had 20 points after 20 games, I think we all agree that there wouldn't be a problem. The opposite should be true if he had like 2 points after 20 games.

So if he had 4 additional secondary assists to date, would you be happier with his season?

 

[Miller Time]

The « plan » they have for Slaf if it‘s more than just PR to keep fans on board, is taking a very roundabout way to reach its target.

Not part of the plan:
-shooting on net
-using shooting lanes
-taking the puck to the slot
-taking the puck to the net
-taking the puck away from the boards to dangerous areas
-using his body to drive the net

pure nonsense take...

this isn't the coyotes, the Habs have zero need to win any kind of "PR" game to "keep fans on board"... this isn't a struggling franchise trying to keep fans engaged, this is a team in the midst of one of it's worst performance stretches in history yet achieving record-setting valuation.

Hughes, Marty &co. are not making roster decisions to keep fans happy. If they were, Slaf would be sitting in the AHL so the vocal peanut gallery could rejoice over his "improved" stat line lol

So if he had 4 additional secondary assists to date, would you be happier with his season?

you've been around long enough to know that 1 highlight reel goal and a few secondary assists and the bulk of the whiners in this thread would be waiving their pom poms... it's just how things go.

 

[NotProkofievian]

So if he had 4 additional secondary assists to date, would you be happier with his season?

Depends on the secondary assists in this small sample. But if he had 4 secondary assists after 50 games, I don't care what wizardry he pulled off to achieve them the result still sucks. Does that make sense?

 

[Trabdy2]

When Dvo comes back it probably makes sense to send Slafkovksy to the AHL, unless they want to waive Armia again, which I'd be fine with too.

Slafkovsky is looking more in over his head these recent games and it's hard to imagine him being able to refine things in his game efficiently when he's that far under water. Plus, he's dragging his linemates down, which hurts morale.

 

[le_sean]

When Dvo comes back it probably makes sense to send Slafkovksy to the AHL, unless they want to waive Armia again, which I'd be fine with too.

Slafkovsky is looking more in over his head these recent games and it's hard to imagine him being able to refine things in his game efficiently when he's that far under water. Plus, he's dragging his linemates down, which hurts morale.

I wouldn’t say he’s dragging Anderson down. The only scoring chances Anderson has had is because of Slafkovsky. He just can’t do anything other than the same move which is why the puck isn’t going in.

 

[ReHabs]

pure nonsense take...

this isn't the coyotes, the Habs have zero need to win any kind of "PR" game to "keep fans on board"... this isn't a struggling franchise trying to keep fans engaged, this is a team in the midst of one of it's worst performance stretches in history yet achieving record-setting valuation.

Hughes, Marty &co. are not making roster decisions to keep fans happy. If they were, Slaf would be sitting in the AHL so the vocal peanut gallery could rejoice over his "improved" stat line lol

The Habs explicitly said they’re keeping him up no matter what. So this is absolutely the wrong read you have.

you've been around long enough to know that 1 highlight reel goal and a few secondary assists and the bulk of the whiners in this thread would be waiving their pom poms... it's just how things go.

You were very loud and proud after game 1. What happened??

 

[morhilane]

I wouldn’t say he’s dragging Anderson down. The only scoring chances Anderson has had is because of Slafkovsky. He just can’t do anything other than the same move which is why the puck isn’t going in.

Have no fear, Anderson was going to watch a video of his goals before today's game to fix what isn't working this season.


I wish that was sarcasm.

 

[StCaufield]

Eye test was pretty bad last 2-3 games. This line played 7 games together and it is more than obvious that it is not working. They even tried in pre-season and it was not working. Why the hell is MSL waiting and refusing to make a change? I seriously do not see a single reason why he should not switch Monahan and Newhook.

I agree with the lines but giving the puck away and standing there like a deer in the headlights more so than literally every other player just shows you

I wouldn’t say he’s dragging Anderson down. The only scoring chances Anderson has had is because of Slafkovsky. He just can’t do anything other than the same move which is why the puck isn’t going in.

Lol he’s had lots of chances without Slaf. He just can’t finish

 

[Habs 4 Life]

I agree with the lines but giving the puck away and standing there like a deer in the headlights more so than literally every other player just shows you


Lol he’s had lots of chances without Slaf. He just can’t finish

Agreed, Anderson generates a lot of chance with his speed, problem is he can't finish whatsoever

 

[M.C.G. 31]

At this point, the way I see it is that he’s a 19-year-old and it’s still way too early.

That said, he very clearly needs some AHL time and he’s not above that. Guys like Draisaitl and Rantanen even did some time in the AHL. Slafkovsky is not above that and it’s probably best for his development to spend some time down there.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Are you actually being serious, here? That's not a sarcastic question, rest assured.

Because there never was "a look."

That's just our fanbase being insecure and psychotic, generating a convoluted, baseless narrative by imputing meaning to a shot that was taken when he wasn't even looking in the direction of the Canadien's table.

Its spurious drama, as fake as the storylines in wrestling.

Are you kidding me? It was played over and over after the draft on TSN, Sportsnet... everywhere.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

That’s not sulking. That a f*** you I’ll prove you wrong. Looked like a clown also though lol

It was sulking for sure. It was so childish.

Anyways, for the record I wanted us to draft him. But again, that means next to nothing because I don't really follow the juniors. My whole thing was that he had a track record of success. As others have pointed out though, he may have just been an early bloomer.

We have years to see how this goes I guess.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I wouldn’t say he’s dragging Anderson down. The only scoring chances Anderson has had is because of Slafkovsky. He just can’t do anything other than the same move which is why the puck isn’t going in.

I've missed the last couple of games but yeah, Slaf has definitely set him up a few times. Anderson's gonna Anderson though.

Slaf needs to shoot a lot more... Again though, in my opinion he should be doing this in the minors.

 

[badfish]

You don't pass the eye-test for 6 games and end up with historically bad GAR and xGAR, sorry. Likely you were being kind to him because you think of him as a future asset.

He had one good game and that was his first, since then it's been AHL level, if even.

It’s inherently flawed to argue that what someone saw cannot be right because a summary statistic suggests otherwise. In the big picture, I hypothesize this is exactly why professional clubs employ both conventional scouting and statistical-based scouting approaches.

An interesting exercise would be to ask the posters here after each game to score their overall opinion of a player’s game on a scale of 1-10, and then plot that against the players GAR/xGAR. If you did this for all 82 games in a season, would you expect to see an R^2 of 1.0? I doubt it.

Are there any situations a player could have good moments in a game but have a poor GAR and xGAR score? I ask that from a genuine curiosity, because I respect you as a poster, and suspect you’re knowledgeable enough in this area that you can probably provide an interesting opinion.

From the 20 minutes of research I have done, it seems that GAR/xGAR, while being highly regarded as a valuable statistic, still has multiple limitations. In my research, there were two limitations that stood out to me. First, the model has a difficult time measuring the impact linemates have on the score if those linemates spend almost all of their time together. Second, the score is heavily reliant on plays that actually happen in a game, versus what should have happened, and this is particularly true for passing plays.

I highlight those two limitations because the majority of the comments I have read from the eye test crowd have focused on two things: (a) he is making passes to his linemates that they are failing to convert on, and (b) his entire line, which has played together since Dach went down, is struggling right now for reasons that are beyond Slafkovsky alone. Interestingly, both of those critiques would not be captured well by GAR/xGAR.

Bottom line, is I think this reenforces a part of the opinion in my post you quoted. Slafkovsky should be moved onto a line with different players (Monahan in this writers opinion) and be given a period of time to see if he looks better AND has better results. If that’s not happening after 10 games, then considering the entire body of work over the last 1.5 years, it’s time to have a rethink of the development approach.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

I also remember a LOT of people defending Habs management on their decision to NOT have him go to the WJCs.

As if Slaf is/was above that.

"Oh, he will learn so much more in the NHL...."

smh.

Also the fact we were already eliminated from playoffs like why not send him

 

[River Meadow]

Also the fact we were already eliminated from playoffs like why not send him

100%.

I was literally dumbfounded and I think I was pretty mad and vocal about it, but it seemed at the time like most or at least a lot of people here agreed with Habs management and thought it was silly to send him as if he was above that.. because the 3 or so weeks he would be at WJC, he would learn soooo much more playing in the NHL.

I think many of those people are changing their stance now though given what we're seeing.

 

[StCaufield]

It was sulking for sure. It was so childish.

Anyways, for the record I wanted us to draft him. But again, that means next to nothing because I don't really follow the juniors. My whole thing was that he had a track record of success. As others have pointed out though, he may have just been an early bloomer.

We have years to see how this goes I guess.

Hey I wanted Cooley but what can you do? Hopefully Slaf just shuts me up so anyone that supports him right now can laugh at me and call me an idiot. I sincerely hope that happens

 

[NotProkofievian]

I also remember a LOT of people defending Habs management on their decision to NOT have him go to the WJCs.

As if Slaf is/was above that.

"Oh, he will learn so much more in the NHL...."

smh.

Mikko Rantanen, a Slaf comparable long since abandoned, had been a top 10 scorer in the AHL winning rookie of the year, and captained his country to WJC gold on home ice, and was just getting his NHL career started by now. Hard to imagine that Slaf's experience up to this point has been more valuable than that.