Juraj Slafkovsky - Unicorn

[jbeck5]

yes

Yes you think he'll be 100 point player for many years?

 

[93LEAFS]

He might not ever be the offensive juggernaut that other first overalls were, but he’s still going to be a good player. The bust talk about an 18-year-old was nonsense.

I'm sure someone will emerge from this draft as an elite offensive forward as almost every draft produces one, but this draft was a nightmare on projecting which player that was going to be. Slafkovsky's in most drafts was a guy who goes in the 3 to 5 range, and possibly outside that in a really strong draft class like 2015. Not every draft has a guy at the top who you look at, and think it's likely they become a high-end scorer like MacKinnon, McDavid, Matthews, Hughes, and Bedard. 2022 and 2021 for whatever reasons lacked players who you could say, unless something goes wrong, this player is likely to be a top 10 goal scorer or point-getter in the league. Slafkovsky is still only 19. Even if he only turns into more of a secondary scorer with a strong forechecking/puck battle type game, he's likely to still be a valuable piece for whatever team he's on. It's not like Cooley or Wright are putting up great numbers where the Habs should be regretting their choice from the other two viable forward options available at 1OA this year.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Size was the only one of the three that I can agree is rare for him. Hes fast, but not outrageously so. NHL edge has him as a 81 percentile top speed bursts player, 69 percentile for speed bursts over 20 mph and 69 percentile for skating distance. As for skill, again several players enter the league each year that have more skill that Slaf.

I don't know why you are looking at each of these separately.
What makes him a unicorn is that he has all of these 3 aspects together.

Forwards with Slaf's skating ability are numerous, but if you consider only those with a similar talent level, the list gets shorter, and if you also only consider players of his size the list gets a lot shorter.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Slafkovsky wasn't playing with Caufield or Suzuki in his first dozen games.

Since November 14th, which is around the time he got Caufield on his line, he's been the top scorer among 2022 picks by a decent amount.

View attachment 815935

Slaf also just keeps on getting better. He now has 7 goals and 15 pts in his last 21 games.

No need to cherry pick, he started playing with them in early November, here are the numbers since then:

Again, Slaf is playing great, but he's got a lot more support on his line (and consistency) than Cooley has. He's also getting a 2-3 more mins per night, and is playing the easier position.

 

[Tyrus]

kakko put up 40 last season. at least wait until slaf puts two good seasons together.

Kakko was 21 last season, Slaf isn't even 20 yet.

 

[Colezuki]

By "hit that peak sooner and possibly produce at that peak longer than Miller has"

Are we talking about Miller's peak or slaf?

Because Miller has 249 points over 211 games in the last 3 years which averages to 97 points over 82 games for those years.

Are you saying slaf will hit his own peak earlier and keep it for long...

Or are you saying slaf will be producing at roughly 100 point pace per season soon and will keep it up for longer?

That's super high hopes considering much better players have struggle to do so.

I think he was saying if we think Miller is a PPG player, he got there at 24ish, he thinks slaf will get there at 20/21ish and maintain it over the next decade or so

 

[klefbombs shoulder]

I don't know why you are looking at each of these separately.
What makes him a unicorn is that he has all of these 3 aspects together.

Players of Slaf's skating ability are numerous, but if you consider only those with a similar talent level, the list gets shorter, and if you also only consider players of his size the list gets a lot shorter.

My point is that his speed and skill aren't that noteworthy (yet). The only thing truly in the unique category with him is his size (25ish players in the league are his size), so roughly 1 player per team is his size.

If a player is within 1 SD from average (69th percentile) that isn't enough to be a unicorn.

And as far as skill goes, I would argue there are also hundreds of NHLers with comparable or greater skill.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

So here you are bringing primary point into the argument. Yet earlier, as seen below, you used PPG as an argument. Which one is it Whiskey? How many of Nemec's 12 assists or Minty's 17 assists are primary?




#BUSTED

Both matter, but defenseman rely much more on secondary scoring, which is not a new development.

 

[Xirik]

Drouin is Phoenix. Rose from the ashes this season.

Or Mackinnon is Jesus and raised his boy LazerDrouin from the dead.

 

[Colezuki]

No need to cherry pick, he started playing with them in early November, here are the numbers since then:

View attachment 815956

Again, Slaf is playing great, but he's got a lot more support on his line (and consistency) than Cooley has. He's also getting a 2-3 more mins per night, and is playing the easier position.

No he hasn't, Slaf hasn't played exclusively with them over that time frame, he also had to play with Monahan and Black Hole anderson.

 

[waitin425]

Yes you think he'll be 100 point player for many years?

Miller reached his peak in 2021/22 as a 28 year old. He is still in his peak. He has yet to score 100 points, but could do it this year. His peak included a PPG season last year. He will likely fall from his peak after next season. Meaning a 4 year total peak.

I hope that Slaf, hits peak around the age of 23 and remains in that peak until age 29-30. 6-7 year total. I believe that he may have a year or two, during that peak, that may reach 100 points, but for the most part, I hope that he hovers around PPG.

Not that you agree....but does my explanation make sense?

 

[Colezuki]

My point is that his speed and skill aren't that noteworthy (yet). The only thing truly in the unique category with him is his size (25ish players in the league are his size), so roughly 1 player per team is his size.

If a player is around 1 SD away from average (69th percentile) that isn't enough to be a unicorn.

And as far as skill goes, I would argue there are also hundreds of NHLers with comparable or greater skill.

The number of players with his height/weight and skill combo if development goes right is likely <5 in the league at any given time. That's why he went 1st overall.

 

[Pazucha]

No he hasn't, Slaf hasn't played exclusively with them over that time frame, he also had to play with Monahan and Black Hole anderson.

Don't forget Dvorak

but anyway this is useless thread

 

[catnip]

I'm confused. Hasn't it mainly been your own fanbase that's been very critical of him? Seems a bit strange/early to be doing a victory lap on the main board.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

No he hasn't, Slaf hasn't played exclusively with them over that time frame, he also had to play with Monahan and Black Hole anderson.

Of the 668 5v5 mins Slaf has played since early November, he's only played 88 minutes without Suzuki or Caufield on the ice.

 

[Jared Dunn]

I guess we differ on those terms. I see what you are saying of course.

I'd view that type of player as a generational full package player. (Eric lindros comes to mind specifically to me)

In theory slafkovsky could have been there but since he has the physical toolbox, but he is more a project full package player than generational because it was pretty clear coming into the final draft that he was not going to dominate like a Crosby or mcdavid or Malkin / ovechkin impact right away.

I'd say honestly it gets tossed around pretty generally for just very big guys who also have skills. Have heard it used for Tom Wilson a bunch, Habs front office was throwing it around for Florian Xhekaj at the draft lol

 

[klefbombs shoulder]

The number of players with his height/weight and skill combo if development goes right is likely <5 in the league at any given time. That's why he went 1st overall.

He went first cause hes big, we all know this. But other than his size I don't see anything in his game to consider him a unicorn. And even just looking at his size, 25-30 players in the league are just as big as him.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Said this a year ago about Cooley v. Slaf

Too early but Cooley if I’m starting from scratch.

Could see MTL wanting to stick with Slaf in 5 years though if he’s a possession monster 50-60 pt guy as that’ll be a pretty unique player.

 

[waitin425]

Both matter, but defenseman rely much more on secondary scoring, which is not a new development.

So secondary scoring only counts for defensemen, because they rely on that more. For forwards, we should only count primary scoring.

 

[klefbombs shoulder]

I filtered for players that are 225 lbs+ in the NHL. Came back with 55 results. Slaf is 12th in points among those players.

NHL stats

IMO that is just too many comparable players for him to be in the unicorn category.

Is Mantha a unicorn? PLD? Byfield?

 

[CDN24]

He reminds me of another big winger Habs gave up on before he reached his potential. John Leclair.

Leclair played 10 games as a 22 year old after college career ended. The next season at 23 he played 59 in the NHL and scored 8 G and 11 A. followed that up with 2 19 goal seasons and then Habs traded him to Philly and within a year he was a 50G guy.

The big guys take longer to get it all together, Slaf could well become a dominant power forward type that scores 40+ by his mid 20s

 

[Jared Dunn]

Said this a year ago about Cooley v. Slaf

Cooley currently has the edge and probably will throughout the career but Slaf could be a very rare player. I don't think he ends up the best player in the draft but I don't think the gap will be big enough between him and anyone else to begrudge the pick

 

[mr figgles]

I filtered for players that are 225 lbs+ in the NHL. Came back with 55 results. Slaf is 12th in points among those players.

NHL stats

IMO that is just too many comparable players for him to be in the unicorn category.

Is Mantha a unicorn? PLD? Byfield?

Mantha had 0 points in the NHL at the same age. 0 the year after too.

 

[waitin425]

I filtered for players that are 225 lbs+ in the NHL. Came back with 55 results. Slaf is 12th in points among those players.

NHL stats

IMO that is just too many comparable players for him to be in the unicorn category.

Is Mantha a unicorn? PLD? Byfield?

Mantha had 0 points in the NHL at the same age. 0 the year after too.

 

[Habano]

Typical hf thread lol. Hab fans talking highly of a kid and other fanbases shitting all over him. Couldn't give a rat's ass about what others think of him, we have him and we love him. In a redraft, I'd still pick him over Cooley or anyone else from that draft.

This coming from a guy who was originally upset that we didn't go with Cooley or Wright.