I've been a bit provocative with my latest posts about Lundqvist's contract (and he definitely left a ton of money on the table).
I think it steams from that I am a bit annoyed about Slats really not really picking up the mechanisms of the cap world. What was expensive yesterday really is not today, and this development will only go faster and faster.
There are only 30 goalies in this league, and only a handful of them are really "elite" in the sense that they stay at the top year after year like Hank. So there aren't quite any compareables right now. But let look at the second best goalie IMO, Jonathan Quick. LAK resigned him to a 10 year deal when he still was a RFA. 7m per for 7 years, and then cheap years at the end to bring the AAV down to 5.8m. And Quick's contract will only keep getting better and better and better.
This don't make Hank overpaid, it just shows that LAK signed Quick to an awsome contract.
In NY though, a long contract is a negative. Yes, you should be careful with long contracts. But I can bet than 4m per for say Anton Strålman in 4 years will be a good AAV, the cap is going up while Strålman is entering his true prime.
Some obvious conclusions:
1. A long contract can be a risk, but -- it is also a definitey must to have good players on good contracts to win a cup and one of few ways to get someone on a good contract is to lock someone up long term and have that contract mature into a cheap AAV as the cap goes up.
2. Hence you -- must -- sign players to long contracts. You just cannot have your players always turn UFAs on a regular basis.
3. You need to stay tuned into what really is "market value" for these guys. 7m in 07' ain't "7m" in 14'... A player making 4m today is not taking up a major part of your cap. A player signed to a 8.5m contract is not even remotely making what a top player would get on the open market.
Ryan Suter and Zach Parise is making 12m per right now -- 12m per -- and I have a really hard time not seing the top players make 12m per if they hit the UFA market today. Seriously, like we are talking about if Hank would make 10m per or not on the open market. I have not brought it furhter, but I honestly don't think he would make 10m per. I think he would make 12m per if he took the highest offer, I am fairly certain of it. That's 17 percent of the cap. Someone would pay him that. Its equal to the 6.8m contracts signed right after the lock-out. I mean just look at what guys like Nikitin and Clarkson are making, its just worth it to bring in one player that you know for sure will carry your team at that level. There are 30 teams, as we know on the UFA market if you take the highest bid all it takes is one of those teams to think that it makes sense and the bar is set.
So don't compare the AAV of any player we have or can sign or whatever with players that signed contracts 5 years ago or signed cap circumventing contracts or whatever. You must look much deeper than that. Look at portions of the cap and -- always count extremely high.
Why is this relevant? You always need to have this in the back of your head when you evalute your situation and how you manage your cap. A 7.8m contract might seem expensive today, for example. People were suggesting Nash to be bought out. Boyle and MSL's contracts will be off our books in 2 years probably, wee will have room to make a move then. But, the next time we hit the UFA market and sign a big star we won't be paying 7-7.5m per for the next Zach Parise if you get what I mean, we will be paying 10 or even 12 or who can rule out 14m per (the cap will be over 80m by then no doubt, probably closer to 85m. 14% of 85m is 12m... We paid Gomez 14.5% of our cap when we signed him, and those deals weren't outrageous for superstars (Gomez wasn't a superstar though but thats another issue...)).
I mean, many are asking themselves if we really shouldn't try to move Nash. Should we pay him 7.8m per in 4-5 years? I am not saying that isn't a relevant question, but you can't forget that 7.8m in 4-5 years most definitely won't be "7.8m" anymore. It will be more like 5.5m.
