July 1st - Free Agent Extravaganza Part III

[Vitto79]

top 6
Nash, Stepan, MSL
Kreider, Brassard, Zuccarello

bottom 6
Hagelin, Miller, UFA or prospect
Glass, Moore, UFA or prospect

Time to sign a Stempniak, Carter, Carcillo to fill holes on the cheap

 

[Trainmman]

Nash absolutely has value, and it may be equal to what we gave up to get him. Remember, Columbus had next to no leverage when it came time to deal him--he wanted out, and he wanted NY. Columbus fans didn't seem to understand this and were thinking they'd get some combination of Kreider, Stepan, multiple firsts, etc. Instead they got two good but not great roster players, a good prospect and a first. I absolutely think Nash could fetch something near that at this moment in time.

He's still a gifted player, and I don't believe his playoff performance will decrease his value that much. For a team that's focused on taking the next step, from a bubble team to a team solidly in the playoff picture, he has value. Or, for a team that's already deep and well-positioned for a run, he could have good value (think LA and Gaborik, who was also far from a playoff dynamo).

There's plenty of value to be had for a guy like Nash. And remember, there's always some GM that panics and overpays for something, fearing he's on the hot seat otherwise.

All that said, I don't know why we'd be looking to trade Nash.

This. And the reason some are putting Nash on the "trade block" has to be the disappearing act on the stat sheet in the playoffs.

But as the playoffs went on, he was throwing hits, making good defensive plays.. he did okay in the playoffs.. but the only gripe is when you have an open net in Game 5.. you gotta bury that shot.

Watch Nash come in next year and pot 40 goals with 30 assists.. I still believe in Rick Nash.

 

[nevesis]

“@Real_ESPNLeBrun: Break from my golf round: hearing Steve Ott has re-signed with the St. Louis Blues....”

 

[bernmeister]

And just when we thought bern had an unrealistic and unachievable deal, this comes along. Nash for Pavelski AND Hertl. Good lord people.

Thank you for saving me the trouble on the bold.

 

[bernmeister]

No it's ok, cuz the Hawks have SO MUCH cap room to absorb that almost $9M. It'll be k. But just remember, it's a good idea because we need more horses.

No, we do need the cap room, and so do the Hawks. I'm not saying it is equal to the penny, but Sharp is the biggest paid of the bunch, if I remember.

Depending upon adds, should not be that much a problem.

In the short term Chicago flips one premier F + for two premier D.
It already has Keith + Seabrook, so in the short term it can enjoy the depth.
But what will happen is it will flip either or both of Staal/Girardi for cost controlled assets at a profit.

Not so much for them or us.
We need to get cheaper with our D.
Sharp looks like a cheaper replacement for Nash (to Detroit).

 

[zuckera1]

Nash absolutely has value, and it may be equal to what we gave up to get him. Remember, Columbus had next to no leverage when it came time to deal him--he wanted out, and he wanted NY. Columbus fans didn't seem to understand this and were thinking they'd get some combination of Kreider, Stepan, multiple firsts, etc. Instead they got two good but not great roster players, a good prospect and a first. I absolutely think Nash could fetch something near that at this moment in time.

He's still a gifted player, and I don't believe his playoff performance will decrease his value that much. For a team that's focused on taking the next step, from a bubble team to a team solidly in the playoff picture, he has value. Or, for a team that's already deep and well-positioned for a run, he could have good value (think LA and Gaborik, who was also far from a playoff dynamo).

There's plenty of value to be had for a guy like Nash. And remember, there's always some GM that panics and overpays for something, fearing he's on the hot seat otherwise.

All that said, I don't know why we'd be looking to trade Nash.

Nash has value but to say we'd get quality pieces back for him is nuts.

What GM will trade away early picks or a quality young piece to get a guy who's 30 for 4 years at a high cap hit that hasn't performed in the playoffs? I agree with you that I wouldn't trade him but unless he rebounds next year, he wouldn't garner value in a trade UNLESS we retain 2-3 million in salary.

 

[Kakko]

Having RW depth is horrible, isn't it?

 

[Kakko]

Nash has value but to say we'd get quality pieces back for him is nuts.

What GM will trade away early picks or a quality young piece to get a guy who's 30 for 4 years at a high cap hit that hasn't performed in the playoffs? I agree with you that I wouldn't trade him but unless he rebounds next year, he wouldn't garner value in a trade UNLESS we retain 2-3 million in salary.

Any NHL GM knows that 40 career playoff games are not a realistic indication of the next 40

 

[bernmeister]

So our defense looks like this afterwards?

McDonagh-Klein
Moore-McIlrath
Allen-Boyle

Kill it with fire.

1. Need to break some eggs to make an omlette (sp).

2. Clendenning is not chopped liver.
The RD could have a mixture of Clendenning/Klein/Boyle and to a lesser extent Allen covering 1st and 2nd pairs. McIlrath gets his 10 mins or so at 3rd pair.

 

[zuckera1]

Any NHL GM knows that 40 career playoff games are not a realistic indication of the next 40

40 games is a decent sample size. The rule in stat is that a sample size of at least 30 usually corrects for random distribution in the observations.

Nash is 30, he's only going to get worse from here on out. I'm not rooting against him, but to say that he has a good chance of finding post-season success in the future is wrong. You add in the concussion issue and how he changed his game to being a more perimeter player, and this makes it even harder to produce in the playoffs.

 

[bernmeister]

Why would the Hawks take on two $5M+ (Staal next year) salaries when they are looking to reduce costs. They need to keep young guys on controlled salaries. They'd be interested in a guy like Klein in a trade where the other team can take back a contract like Sharp. IMO they'll look to move at least Sharp and Seabrook between now and the start of next season and hope some of their young guys can step up.

Easier to split the Sharp # in 2 pieces, do custom adds, then flip lower contract numbered Staal + Girardi for cost controlled assets.

The higher the number (Sharp) the more likely a single significantly large contract has to go the other way; THAT would truly defeat Hawks' interest. (Unless they just want to give Sharp away for nothing; that can't be good for Chicago either.)

 

[aufheben]

Any NHL GM knows that 40 career playoff games are not a realistic indication of the next 40

May be true, but I don't think you can just ignore it either. Also, you have to look at the reasons why he struggles in the playoffs.

 

[nyr2k2]

40 games is a decent sample size. The rule in stat is that a sample size of at least 30 usually corrects for random distribution in the observations.

Nash is 30, he's only going to get worse from here on out. I'm not rooting against him, but to say that he has a good chance of finding post-season success in the future is wrong. You add in the concussion issue and how he changed his game to being a more perimeter player, and this makes it even harder to produce in the playoffs.

In the regular season, he's still a 30-goal, 60-point guy who plays 2-ways. Yes, he will decline eventually, but is it impending? I don't think so. There's little to suggest his game should get appreciably worse in the next few seasons. His cap hit gets more manageable each season. He's not much different than the guy we acquired for a high price two seasons ago.

What type of return do you think he could get? I said he'd get something similar to what we gave up for him, and you disagree. Tell me what you think he'd get in a hypothetical scenario.

 

[OverTheCap]

Nash has some value, but I can't imagine teams with limited cap space or those that are looking to take the next step in the playoffs would be interested. I believe it was Elliotte Friedman who reported that one of the GMs initially interested in trading for Nash back in 2012 had some reservations about how he would perform in the playoffs and now feels relieved that he didn't acquire Nash.

I could see teams such as Florida, the Isles, etc., as well as some Canadian teams like Toronto, Winnipeg, and Calgary being interested in Nash. The question is, would he waive to go to any of those destinations...

 

[aufheben]

Nash has some value, but I can't imagine teams with limited cap space or those that are looking to take the next step in the playoffs would be interested. I believe it was Elliotte Friedman who reported that one of the GMs initially interested in trading for Nash back in 2012 had some reservations about how he would perform in the playoffs and now feels relieved that he didn't acquire Nash.

I could see teams such as Florida, the Isles, etc., as well as some Canadian teams like Toronto, Winnipeg, and Calgary being interested in Nash. The question is, would he waive to go to any of those destinations...

Yep, and the common perception about acquiring him while he was still in Columbus, was that his game would "break out" on a better team.

He honestly reminds me of how people play NHL 14.

 

[zuckera1]

In the regular season, he's still a 30-goal, 60-point guy who plays 2-ways. Yes, he will decline eventually, but is it impending? I don't think so. There's little to suggest his game should get appreciably worse in the next few seasons. His cap hit gets more manageable each season. He's not much different than the guy we acquired for a high price two seasons ago.

What type of return do you think he could get? I said he'd get something similar to what we gave up for him, and you disagree. Tell me what you think he'd get in a hypothetical scenario.

7.8 is a lot for a 30-30 guy who doesn't produce in the playoffs.

I think the return depends on whether or not we retained salary. If we retain say 2.8 million, then we could get a 2nd Line Player + B Prospect + First.

Without retaining salary, he probably garners a 2nd Line player and a B/C prospect. Though it depends on the salary of the roster player.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Nash has some value, but I can't imagine teams with limited cap space or those that are looking to take the next step in the playoffs would be interested. I believe it was Elliotte Friedman who reported that one of the GMs initially interested in trading for Nash back in 2012 had some reservations about how he would perform in the playoffs and now feels relieved that he didn't acquire Nash.

I could see teams such as Florida, the Isles, etc., as well as some Canadian teams like Toronto, Winnipeg, and Calgary being interested in Nash. The question is, would he waive to go to any of those destinations...

We don't have to honor his NTC iirc since he already invalidated it by waiving it to go to the Rangers. It would be quite a **** move but at the end of the day it is a business. Most people fail to realize that. Had Nash produced during the finals vs. LA, who knows, maybe we win the cup? The onus has been on him to produce in the playoffs. He hasn't.

 

[Trainmman]

“@Real_ESPNLeBrun: Break from my golf round: hearing Steve Ott has re-signed with the St. Louis Blues....â€

Ehhh was never really high on Ott, but as a 4th line center he wouldn't have been bad.

Good depth signing for STL.

 

[Off Sides]

The other question on those destination for Nash, would a smaller market team take on that salary, does it fit if they have their own internal cap. His salary actually increases. They would have to decide if Nash, his marketability, and if he could get them into and advance in the playoffs, would bring in more real money than they are paying him.

 

[silverfish]

Ott got a $2.6m AAV? That's outrageous. Can't be true. Haven't seen a reputable source report it yet.

 

[Ola]

A link?
http://www.capgeek.com/leaders/?type=CAP_HIT
It's not some hard to find fact that skaters (especially forwards) make more money than goalies. See also: Nash, Rick


Ryan Miller just signed for 6m
There is no chance any team would give Lundqvist (or any goalie) 10.5m

Vancouver gave Luongo 6.75m per in 06' when the cap was 44m. That is exactly equal to 10.58m today, and Luongo resigned, he didn't even hit the market.

We gave Gomez and Drury a lot more than we gave Hank. Over 7m per under a 44m cap, Hank gets 8.5m under a 69m Cap. Do the math, someone would have paid Hank a bigger portion of their cap than we gave Drury -- ie more than Toews/Kane got. Or did Drury in 06' have higher value than Hank two weeks ago because he is a forward? I am sorry but that is just ridiculous.

 

[Gardner McKay]

7.8 is a lot for a 30-30 guy who doesn't produce in the playoffs.

I think the return depends on whether or not we retained salary. If we retain say 2.8 million, then we could get a 2nd Line Player + B Prospect + First.

Without retaining salary, he probably garners a 2nd Line player and a B/C prospect. Though it depends on the salary of the roster player.

When do we trade him though? That is the question. IMO this team has taken a significant step back from the team that won the cup. I am not usually negative about the outlook of this team, however, this is the least positive I have been in a long time. Im confident that Glass does fine as a 4th line player and a Dorsett/Carcillo replacement. What I am not confident in, is this team being able to score at the same rate it did last year. Add to that a slightly worse defense, and you have a recipe for a team that doesn't produce the same results as last year.

Do we give Nash more time and wish/hope that he has a complete outlier of a season and scores 45+ goals and 95+ points and finally turns it on in the post season? You wish in one hand and crap in the other but see which gets filled first.

 

[zuckera1]

When do we trade him though? That is the question. IMO this team has taken a significant step back from the team that won the cup. I am not usually negative about the outlook of this team, however, this is the least positive I have been in a long time. Im confident that Glass does fine as a 4th line player and a Dorsett/Carcillo replacement. What I am not confident in, is this team being able to score at the same rate it did last year. Add to that a slightly worse defense, and you have a recipe for a team that doesn't produce the same results as last year.

Do we give Nash more time and wish/hope that he has a complete outlier of a season and scores 45+ goals and 95+ points and finally turns it on in the post season? You wish in one hand and crap in the other but see which gets filled first.

Good question.

I wouldn't trade him now because his value is as low as it's ever going to be (most likely). He's coming off a down season for his standards, a concussion, and the playoffs where his lack of scoring was on display for the entire NHL to see. The guy had 0 points in the Finals.

I hope (and think) he will bounce back next year and get at least 30-30, maybe even 35-35. If this happens, I keep him for the 2015-2016 season. I see how he does in the playoffs in those two years and then make a decision. Nash at 7.8 for 2 years with a higher cap is more tradable than 7.8 for 4 years, not to mention we could retain some salary.

If he doesn't bounce back next year, and has another disappointing playoffs, I cut my losses. Retain 2 million and trade him for a younger winger and a pick.

 

[Trainmman]

Ott got a $2.6m AAV? That's outrageous. Can't be true. Haven't seen a reputable source report it yet.

He got that much??? Wow.... not so good now..

 

[silverfish]

He got that much??? Wow.... not so good now..

Reputable?

"Steve Ott 2 yr deal worth $2.6 million per year #stllbues"

https://twitter.com/andystrickland/status/487244801192894465