July 1st - Free Agent Extravaganza Part III

[Trainmman]

So yeah... that second line center... um Mike Ribero everyone's favorite jackass is out there..

 

[Infinitum Vitae*]

Yeah those 3 goals in 25 games, what a feat.

In fairness one was a GWG on the road

 

[BlueshirtBlitz]

I'll say this about possession (when i'm not using it to bash Tanner Glass or John Moore):

It's clear that a lot of NHL management still don't follow it. Marcel Goc goes for 1.3, while Steve Ott goes for 2.3? That's absolutely ridiculous.

Since it's clear that the best teams in the league are built on possession, and given the fact that it's undervalued, shouldn't good cap-strapped teams be looking for players like Goc, or even Stempniak who's still unsigned?

A very shrewd move the Rangers could make would be to see if Stempniak goes unsigned and they can sign him for a year or 2 at 1.5-1.75 million. Since stats like that are undervalued, shouldn't you be going for guys lik that instead of guys who have overvalued skill-sets, like Tanner Glass?

 

[17futurecap]

I'll say this about possession (when i'm not using it to bash Tanner Glass or John Moore):

It's clear that a lot of NHL management still don't follow it. Marcel Goc goes for 1.3, while Steve Ott goes for 2.3? That's absolutely ridiculous.

Since it's clear that the best teams in the league are built on possession, and given the fact that it's undervalued, shouldn't good cap-strapped teams be looking for players like Goc, or even Stempniak who's still unsigned?

A very shrewd move the Rangers could make would be to see if Stempniak goes unsigned and they can sign him for a year or 2 at 1.5-1.75 million. Since stats like that are undervalued, shouldn't you be going for guys lik that instead of guys who have overvalued skill-sets, like Tanner Glass?

I wonder if Goc took a cheaper deal so he can play with fellow Germans, Ehroff and Greiss. Has to be cool for them to have three Germans on one NHL team.

 

[TheTakedown]

The conflation of a statistical trend with the construction of a roster based on individual stats is silly. It's the kind of thing a stats major does in their first economics course, only to find that nothing works as beautifully and mechanically as they expect it to.

I don't consider it to be an enormous leap to suggest that possession stats represent just one of a million other factors in the efficacy of a hockey team. What I've seen from this particular board contingency with every trade and every roster move has been either lamenting that we replaced a player with one with a worse corsi rating, or the opposite. People still can't grasp, somehow, that the MDZ for Klein trade was a good one.

If I judged every acquisition on plus/minus, and felt we should pursue every top plus/minus player each year, people might want to find a place to put me where I couldn't hurt myself. And yet, there's a statistical correlation between players with a high plus/minus, and their chances of making the playoffs and furthermore, winning a stanley cup. Interesting.

Thank you so very much for noting this.

 

[TheTakedown]

Having seen no one make assertion B, I'm not seeing the relevance.

I think you might need a magnifying glass. Corsi is like god on this board... and it's ridiculous mostly because it does not always work when comparing player to player.

Klein and MDZ are completely different players... MDZ might have better Corsi %'s, but clearly Klein was the superior in the end. By that, I mean that Comparing players possession is not always applicable, because not all players are the same... Hell, in NHL14, you have about 6-8 different "types" of players per position you can choose from... comparing the Corsi %'s of Marc Staal to Ryan McDonagh is just stupid, because McDonagh is an all around, offensive-capable defenseman, while Staal excels in his own zone where he continually shuts down players.

 

[RGY]

Oh the cry babies on this board. Corsi is god. The sourness of the SCF loss still prevails and clouds any discussion for how players played during the playoffs. Nash is in every trade proposal even though he is easily our best goal scorer and has a NMC. Next year is a new one. Move on already and stop bashing the damn guy, its getting a bit played out.

 

[TheTakedown]

I'll say this about possession (when i'm not using it to bash Tanner Glass or John Moore):

It's clear that a lot of NHL management still don't follow it. Marcel Goc goes for 1.3, while Steve Ott goes for 2.3? That's absolutely ridiculous.

Since it's clear that the best teams in the league are built on possession, and given the fact that it's undervalued, shouldn't good cap-strapped teams be looking for players like Goc, or even Stempniak who's still unsigned?

A very shrewd move the Rangers could make would be to see if Stempniak goes unsigned and they can sign him for a year or 2 at 1.5-1.75 million. Since stats like that are undervalued, shouldn't you be going for guys lik that instead of guys who have overvalued skill-sets, like Tanner Glass?

I think it would be a wise move to pull Stempniak over... Looks like nobody wants to take a flyer on him, and I'm more inclined to slot him on the 3rd line as an experience vet to play with Miller... It just makes more sense, especially considering how low his demands are getting on a daily basis.

On top of that, he played with Glass for several months. Would probably make sense to keep them together since it'll make them not only more comfortable on the team, but probably more productive as well

 

[Zil]

I think you might need a magnifying glass. Corsi is like god on this board... and it's ridiculous mostly because it does not always work when comparing player to player.

Yet you anti-stat people make fun of Blue Blooded when he posts his "spiderwebs" breaking down how players fare in each individual facet of play.

Klein and MDZ are completely different players... MDZ might have better Corsi %'s, but clearly Klein was the superior in the end.

How so? If Klein's clearly superior then he should do something really well in comparison to MDZ. Does he create shots for his teammates? Does he suppress shots from the opposition? Does he put up points or score goals? Is he a powerplay specialist? Show me one statistically significant metric at which Klein excels.

 

[BlueshirtBlitz]

Also, I don't know where this notion that Corsi is god come from. Literally, Blue Blooded, Zil, and 31 are the only dudes who post really in-depth stat breakdowns, while there are a few posters who take the stats into consideration. I'd say most people still ignore the advanced statistics, which is why so many people think Klein could take Stralman's minutes.

 

[MetalGodAOD*]

In the ratio of people who say Corsi is god to those who says it's useless, the vocal majority is in the useless crowd.

Yes a few people put too much stock into it, but most people who use it see it more as a tool for evaluation, not be all end all. The people who discount it entirely at the ones being being ignorant.

 

[BBKers]

He needs to produce more, no question. I'm just very encouraged by what I saw in the playoffs. If he plays that way, I have no worries about him getting goals.

Guy is paid like a superstar
We paid a hefty price to acquire him
He is signed long term with a NMC

With this solely in mind - I have not been impressed by neither his PO performance (abyssmal scoring Wise) nor most of his RS performance. The first 3-4 months he looke like a dominant factor on The Ice. After this - meh. Defending his overall play so far in New York is really being apologetic at its finest, defending his PO game & performance is shear lunacy

 

[Thirty One]

I think you might need a magnifying glass. Corsi is like god on this board... and it's ridiculous mostly because it does not always work when comparing player to player.

Klein and MDZ are completely different players... MDZ might have better Corsi %'s, but clearly Klein was the superior in the end. By that, I mean that Comparing players possession is not always applicable, because not all players are the same... Hell, in NHL14, you have about 6-8 different "types" of players per position you can choose from... comparing the Corsi %'s of Marc Staal to Ryan McDonagh is just stupid, because McDonagh is an all around, offensive-capable defenseman, while Staal excels in his own zone where he continually shuts down players.

No matter what kind of player you are, it's better if you have the ability to move the play out of your own zone and keep it out.

Del Zotto may be classified as a 'OFD' in NHL14, compared to a "DFD" in Klein, but I don't use that to form my opinions.

Given that:
1. Del Zotto is better at suppressing shots on his own goal, and
2. Defensemen have little-to-no control on what percentage of those shots go in

I'm unclear why one is considered significantly better at defending to the extent that it's apparently beyond debate.

 

[Thirty One]

It would be smart for the Rangers to ditch Nash after scoring 3 goals on 83 shots in the playoffs, just like it was smart for Boston to ditch Seguin after scoring 1 goal on 70 shots. In that it wouldn't be smart at all.

When you continue to generate shots, they start going in.

Look at this group of playoff chokers. Ugh. Who would want any of those players?

 

[Cassano]

Somehow Klein's on ice possession stats suck, his 'regular stats' sucks, he barely gets ice time under AV, he has cost his defensive linemates possession over the years and John Moore somehow has worse stats with a 'steady guy' like him than an abomination of a defender in MDZ, yet we're supposed to believe he's a top 4 defender?

Lunacy. Delusional.

There is no evidence to support he'd be a viable option in that top 4 role. It's just mind-boggling.

 

[TurgePurge*]

Ola, I definitely agree that our front office fails to manage the cap properly.

You lose me though when you bring up annual salaries of front loaded contracts, regardless of under what CBA they were signed. The fact that Brad Richards hauls in 12 million per year or whatever he does in the front end of his deal has nothing to do with what Hanks AAV deserves to be. Basically my point is you can't compare front end salary figures of one player with AAV of another player. If it were cap compliant, I wouldn't care if Hank got all 60 of his million in the first year. AAV is the end all be all. (obviously trade value gets influenced by actual salary figures but Hank isn't getting traded so it doesnt apply)

 

[Thirty One]

Somehow Klein's on ice possession stats suck, his 'regular stats' sucks, he barely gets ice time under AV, he has cost his defensive linemates possession over the years and John Moore somehow has worse stats with a 'steady guy' like him than an abomination of a defender in MDZ, yet we're supposed to believe he's a top 4 defender?

Lunacy. Delusional.

There is no evidence to support he'd be a viable option in that top 4 role. It's just mind-boggling.

The fact that he was a top-4 on a top five team in the league in 2011-12 is enough.

The fact that Del Zotto was a top-4 on a top two team in the league in 2011-12 is obviously reaching, however.

 

[Jabba11]

Heard it here first. Take it as you want it. I have source that Mike Ribeiro is set to go to the New York Rangers.

Other teams were Nashville and Ottawa. I will be back on this thread when this will get done.

 

[Thirty One]

Heard it here first. Take it as you want it. I have source that Mike Ribeiro is set to go to the New York Rangers.

Other teams were Nashville and Ottawa. I will be back on this thread when this will get done.

I hope you're right.

Are you vetted?

 

[Cassano]

Heard it here first. Take it as you want it. I have source that Mike Ribeiro is set to go to the New York Rangers.

Other teams were Nashville and Ottawa. I will be back on this thread when this will get done.

On ice performance wise, I don't think he'll do worse than Richards, but important to shelter him at ES for him to produce. Ribeiro does have a nice niche of being a PP specialist before last yr though.

His off-ice demeanor is a concern. But the locker room is tight and I think they'll easily accept another player in.

 

[Zil]

Hell, in NHL14, you have about 6-8 different "types" of players per position you can choose from... comparing the Corsi %'s of Marc Staal to Ryan McDonagh is just stupid, because McDonagh is an all around, offensive-capable defenseman, while Staal excels in his own zone where he continually shuts down players.

1) You are using NHL14 in an argument about actual roster construction.

2) Here are some of Blue Blooded's spiderweb charts:

Each hexagon is a standard deviation, with the slightly thicker hexagon halfway to the center being the deviation for average. They list six categories for even strength play, four for powerplay time, and one for penalty killing (Toews' little green triangle for shot suppression).

You're complaining that all anyone has against Girardi and Klein is corsi. This is simply not true (these are going to be a bit harder to read because the line for average isn't thickened).

Klein has one strength: He suppresses shots well on the penalty kill. Otherwise, he provides very slightly above average even strength scoring while doing a poor job at both shot suppression and generation during even strength play.

Girardi actually fares worse. He's below average in every category.

For comparison's sake. Here's Del Zotto:

Blue Blooded sums him up.

MDZ is the prototypical 3rd pairing offensive D. Drives Sh% at the expense of suppression.

He's not miles above Klein, but he comes out a little ahead.

Edit: MDZ's chart is showing up larger in my post than the others for some reason. Weird.

 

[BlueshirtBlitz]

On ice performance wise, I don't think he'll do worse than Richards, but important to shelter him at ES for him to produce. Ribeiro does have a nice niche of being a PP specialist before last yr though.

His off-ice demeanor is a concern. But the locker room is tight and I think they'll easily accept another player in.

I think this signing leaves 2C as a weakness but makes 3C a strength, no matter who of Rib/Brass are slotted on the 3rd.

Would be a solid signing given the terms aren't awful. Hope this dude is right.

 

[TheTakedown]

No matter what kind of player you are, it's better if you have the ability to move the play out of your own zone and keep it out.

Del Zotto may be classified as a 'OFD' in NHL14, compared to a "DFD" in Klein, but I don't use that to form my opinions.

Given that:
1. Del Zotto is better at suppressing shots on his own goal, and
2. Defensemen have little-to-no control on what percentage of those shots go in

I'm unclear why one is considered significantly better at defending to the extent that it's apparently beyond debate.

I dont use NHL14 to form my opinions, I was simply using an example.

The reality is, and it's hard to disupute this, that Klein is much more like Stralman while MDZ is more like Moore... Different types of defensemen...

Obviously, Moore is not as good as Klein in specific circumstances, but when you can realistically see that our choice was either MDZ or Moore as a Defensive puck mover, and that we moved one of those two for a stable guy to pair with the one that was kept, you realize that comparing Corsi to those two different types of players is really apples to oranges... this brings me to my next point:

Corsi, while INCREDIBLY USEFUL, is somewhat, if not mostly dependent (emphasis for mostly regarding defense) on linemates and defensive partners... McD posts very good Corsi scores... but what happens when you put him with MDZ (excluding the fact that they are both left handed)... or even better... what happens when you pair Staal with Girardi? Possession goes down the toilet, and for good reason.. Neither of those players are possession-driven defensemen... simple as that... That's the reason McD is paired with G, why Staal was paired with Stralman, why Moore was paired with KLEIN, and not a RHD version of MDZ

 

[TheTakedown]

It would be smart for the Rangers to ditch Nash after scoring 3 goals on 83 shots in the playoffs, just like it was smart for Boston to ditch Seguin after scoring 1 goal on 70 shots. In that it wouldn't be smart at all.

When you continue to generate shots, they start going in.

Look at this group of playoff chokers. Ugh. Who would want any of those players?

Great link, thanks!

 

[TheTakedown]

Heard it here first. Take it as you want it. I have source that Mike Ribeiro is set to go to the New York Rangers.

Other teams were Nashville and Ottawa. I will be back on this thread when this will get done.

I am OK with this. Think he'll do just fine in our locker room of Veterans. Happy that Dan Boyle is here as well... does a good job in upkeeping the professionalism and accountability with the young players that are called up, especially considering D. Boyle and MSL are close friends..

Still hurts losing Richards' the most though... I wish we had him for $2M, that'd be a hell of a deal :p lol