Prospect Info: Joshua Roy Part 2

[morhilane]

For those advocating for him to stay in the AHL, it's actually quite rare for a player of his age to be leading the AHL and to have this ppg/average.

After 4 games? That's just called an hotstart. What you want to see is how he players after the teams adjusted to the new player.

 

[Skip Bayless]

Nice analysis by David at Elite Prospects:

Probably the best anticipation I've seen in the org. since Markov.

 

[Frankenheimer]

After 4 games? That's just called an hotstart. What you want to see is how he players after the teams adjusted to the new player.

I’m aware. I’m addressing those who think he should stay for the year no matter the production or performance based on a justification that is yet to be made clear.

 

[Matthew McConaughay]

If he still produce like this after 10 games, bring him in.

 

[NotProkofievian]

It's not all or nothing.

12 points in 4 games would be the best 4 game stretch Suzuki ever had. T
hat has some real influence on expected points for the season. There is a good chance his mean level will be his best ever as well.

Without doing all the math I have done in univertsity for this, I would say that right now Suzuki's expected point total is in the low 60s, with 3 points in 4 games. That is a similar pace to the last two seasons.

If Suzuki had 15 points after 8 games, I'm estimating that a proper analysis would show him projecting around 75-80 points in 82 games. The four great games have some effect but they are not projecting to be the new normal either.

How many throws of a die would it take you to conclude that it was loaded? 4? Let's say I gave you a magic die that has the property that it's fair to begin with, and then at some point it will switch to being loaded. How long would it take you to be sure that this switch had occurred? 4 throws?

 

[salbutera]

Evaluate Roy after 25GP to gauge his overall game - until then let him just keep playing in Laval

 

[Hins77]

Rushing a prospect is when you call him when he didnt really dominate. Slaf would have benefit of the AHL last year. Now, he deserve to play in the NHL, cause he is able to keep the pace and you see his play growing up. Last year, the play was fast for him, why I said, AHL would have been a better fit and nobody would have been worried . In case of Joshua Roy, if in december, he still close to 2,0 pts/game. He is dominating, it won’t be rushing a prospect

 

[Tyson]

Evaluate Roy after 25GP to gauge his overall game - until then let him just keep playing in Laval

Lets see how he is doing around Christmas. I think he will be ready.

 

[LaP]

You certainly can't keep him in the AHL if he keeps this pace. I think it's almost unheard of for a kid with such a pace to stay in the AHL for an entire year. Now obviously it's just 5 games but like the previous poster said if he keep this pace until december he wont end the year in the AHL.

One of the best management at development was the 90ies early 2k wings. And they would give between 5 to 20 NHL games to their best prospects every year. I think it's important for a kid to know where he is in his development and if Roy has dunno 60 points in 40 games then it will be impossible for him to evaluate what he lacks to play in the NHL.

The most points in AHL history in a single season for a 20 years old is Stephane Lebeau with 138 points in 88-89. After that it drops to 107 points by Mitch Lamoureux in 82-83 (5'6 guy probably had the skills but not the size). It simply doesn't happen for a kid to dominate that much and spend the entire year there. But again it's just 5 games ... be patient

 

[Essenege]

First of all, I am advocating bring him up not before 42 games, based on his entire game, not just points, and that I think it will take at least a few months to hone his entire game. Also, after 42 games, he will not blow a year of RFA eligibility.

However, implicit in my recommendation is the belief that this 5 game sample size will regress to the mean, which I assume will be less than 1 ppg, maybe close to it.

If after 25 games, he really has 55 points or even 40+ points, I'd be willing to bring him up and worry about the 40 game threshhold when we get close to it and if his contribution at the NHL level is iffy. But his role would be strictly as an offensive specialist if his gamne is not refined yet.

You certainly can't keep him in the AHL if he keeps this pace. I think it's almost unheard of for a kid with such a pace to stay in the AHL for an entire year. Now obviously it's just 5 games but like the previous poster said if he keep this pace until december he wont end the year in the AHL.

One of the best management at development was the 90ies early 2k wings. And they would give between 5 to 20 NHL games to their best prospects every year. I think it's important for a kid to know where he is in his development and if Roy has dunno 60 points in 40 games then it will be impossible for him to evaluate what he lacks to play in the NHL.

The most points in AHL history in a single season for a 20 years old is Stephane Lebeau with 138 points in 88-89. After that it drops to 107 points by Mitch Lamoureux in 82-83 (5'6 guy probably had the skills but not the size). It simply doesn't happen for a kid to dominate that much and spend the entire year there. But again it's just 5 games ... be patient

Great points, and for Lebeau Habs were 53-18-9 with a deep forward group. It’s different for Roy, if he keeps it up you can’t justify playing Pearson, Gallagher, Pezzetta, Evans and Ylonen over him. That’s half our forward that are clearly worse than him IMO. And our PP sucks so he has there’s room for him.

 

[morhilane]

It simply doesn't happen for a kid to dominate that much and spend the entire year there. But again it's just 5 games ... be patient

It's going to happen this year if the Habs don't trade some forwards without taking a cap dump in return or get lots of injuries again (which we don't want). There is just no roster space.

 

[LaP]

It's going to happen this year if the Habs don't trade some forwards without taking a cap dump in return or get lots of injuries again (which we don't want). There is just no roster space.

Not trading Monahan and Pearson if they are healthy at the deadline and keep producing would be stupid imo. If we need vets next year we can always Blackhawks us next summer. Finding good vets at the end of their career to surround your kids is not hard. We still need to add it should be clear and keeping Pearson and Monahan considering their age and value if they are healthy at the deadline would not be the move imo.

 

[Scriptor]

Rushing a prospect is when you call him when he didnt really dominate. Slaf would have benefit of the AHL last year. Now, he deserve to play in the NHL, cause he is able to keep the pace and you see his play growing up. Last year, the play was fast for him, why I said, AHL would have been a better fit and nobody would have been worried . In case of Joshua Roy, if in december, he still close to 2,0 pts/game. He is dominating, it won’t be rushing a prospect

Even as an above a PPG player,Roy will still be dominating! 2 PPG in a defensive league like the AHL, where scoring is actually harder to come by than we imagine isn't dominating, it is CRUSHING the league!

Of course, we're talking 11 points in just FIVE games. The sample size just isn't significant enough to acclaim the player as the next Mario Lemieux.

50 points after 25 games, though, would be plenty to show that Roy has assimilated the AHL tempo and rigours enough to take the next step to the NHL, IMO.

He just needs to play in a role that gives him important TOI and game situations (on both sides of the puck) to keep progressing. Whenever he is called up, if it is to play on a fourth line or with limited ice time on a 3rd line, it will be mistake for his development.

Better to keep playing 20 minutes in the AHL than that.

However, IMO, there is a legitimate opening alongside Caufield and Suzuki as the team still looks for the right fit. If that's considered too early a promotion in terms responsibilities, Slafkovsky - Newhook - Roy could also be an interesting fit for the rookie that would give him decent TOI and game situations for his continued development.

RHP-Dvorak- Anderson would make a good third line and Monahan could play with Caufield and Suzuki.

 

[Trabdy2]

I'd give him at least month or two in the AHL to see how he withstands the rigors of the pro game and scheduling, and see how responds as opposing coaches and players start keying in on him as one of the leagues most productive players.

If he still continues to be highly effective in the AHL by December, it's probably worth giving him a cup of coffee in the NHL to see how he handles the increased pace and intensity.

 

[Milhouse40]

Roy does not lack confidence!! When he played in the exhibition games against half NHLers and half AHLers he did not have the same results. His environment matters. Roy is a player with limited speed who needs to know exactly where to be on both sides of the puck, and he showed himself unable AT THIS TIME to make the direct jump from Junior to NHL and be a top 9 player. The fourth line however has to play an energy game to some degree and keep the puck out of our own net and Roy is not suited for that role yet.

After some months learning to adjust to the faster game of the AHL compared to Junior, he will hopefully be ready for his NEXT adjustment period, starting in the bottom 6 in the NHL.

Confidence has nothing to do with this. He had confidence a month ago and could not stand out against opponents who were only 50% NHLers.

He needs to hone his skills to be effective with the wheels God gave him, and he will.


Oops - not 19, LOL

Where did I write that he lack confidence?

I said being where he is right now is gold in terms of building his confidence as there's always place for more, and there is. He just started his pro-career on fire, I want him to say he domniated this league for more than a week as it could be seen as a flash.

 

[tooji]

I know it’s a pipe dream but if Roy turning into our Jason Robertson would finally a bit of luck for this franchise. Not gonna get my hopes too high just yet

 

[morhilane]

Not trading Monahan and Pearson if they are healthy at the deadline would be stupid imo. If we need vets next year we can always Blackhawks us next summer. Finding good vets at the end of their career to surround your kids is not hard. We still need to add it should be clear and keeping Pearson and Monahan considering their age and value if they are healthy at the deadline would not be the move imo.

If Roy is still 2+ ppg by December, the team shouldn't wait for the deadline to move a forward.

 

[Mrb1p]

I know it’s a pipe dream but if Roy turning into our Jason Robertson would finally a bit of luck for this franchise. Not gonna get my hopes too high just yet

Robertsons crazy. I dont think Roy has 100 in him. Maybe one PPG? I dont know.

Anything Roy gives us is gravy though, lets be real. Hes a 5th rounder.

 

[LaP]

I know it’s a pipe dream but if Roy turning into our Jason Robertson would finally a bit of luck for this franchise. Not gonna get my hopes too high just yet

I see him more as a Bergeron/Danault type of player. Guys who doesn't look that good but with above average IQ. I think he'll land somewhere in between Danault and Bergeron offensively and defensively hard to say at this point. His IQ is definitely above average imo. Toffoli would be a good comparable too.

 

[Essenege]

It's going to happen this year if the Habs don't trade some forwards without taking a cap dump in return or get lots of injuries again (which we don't want). There is just no roster space.

Move Primeau down, bench Pezzetta. It’s not that hard.

 

[BaseballCoach]

How many throws of a die would it take you to conclude that it was loaded? 4? Let's say I gave you a magic die that has the property that it's fair to begin with, and then at some point it will switch to being loaded. How long would it take you to be sure that this switch had occurred? 4 throws?

There are more variables than you may realize.

First, it depends how loaded. We'll need to define the degree of load, I will make an assumption soon.

Second, it also and mainly depends on whnether being loaded is a common occurence.

We need to know the chance of it becoming loaded. If we knew that it can only become loaded once every 100 years, then for sure 4 throws is not enough to conclude it is likely loaded.

But if you told me that at some point each day, the die will become loaded and throw only sixes, then the math changes.

If the die is fair, the chances of four sixes in a row would normally be .077% (i.e. once in 1296 throws).

Now suppose this die is thrown every ten seconds, and that it will become loaded at some point each day (86,400 seconds in a day)

There are 8640 throws per day. There is a one in 8640 chance of the die becoming loaded on any given throw. At four successive 6's it is more likely that the die is still fair than that it became loaded exactly 4 throws ago.

At 5 sixes in a row, the chances are just under 50% that the die just switched to loaded.

At 6 sixes in a row, the odds are heavy that the die became loaded.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Where did I write that he lack confidence?

I said being where he is right now is gold in terms of building his confidence as there's always place for more, and there is. He just started his pro-career on fire, I want him to say he domniated this league for more than a week as it could be seen as a flash.

I'm agreeing that he should stay in Laval longer, but I think confidence is like 1% of the reaeson and 99% development.

 

[Habs4Life]

Rushing a prospect is when you call him when he didnt really dominate. Slaf would have benefit of the AHL last year. Now, he deserve to play in the NHL, cause he is able to keep the pace and you see his play growing up. Last year, the play was fast for him, why I said, AHL would have been a better fit and nobody would have been worried . In case of Joshua Roy, if in december, he still close to 2,0 pts/game. He is dominating, it won’t be rushing a prospect

If Roy continues after 25 games and Slaf continues his meh play after 25 games send slaf down and bring Roy up.

 

[DAChampion]

What kind of role and minutes is Roy getting in Laval? Is he starting in all three zones, playing in all situations, etc?

 

[Gillings]

For those advocating for him to stay in the AHL, it's actually quite rare for a player of his age to be leading the AHL and to have this ppg/average. AHL point leaders are generally a who's who of aging journeymen or late bloomers. Keeping Roy in the AHL scoring at this level would be unusual and against precedent. Imagine a 20 year old scoring 2ppg being kept in the AHL all year. Would basically be unheard of.

Not saying it's the wrong decision, but it requires a pretty significant justification.

Brendan Gallagher, nuff said.