Prospect Info: Joshua Roy Part 2

[BaseballCoach]

Armia always had consistency issues in the NHL and he usually got a busted knee or concussion out of his great games with the Habs, so he could never get going. Then he got Covid (at least) twice and never looked the same after.

This just shows how change in "confidence" is over-rated when it comes to long-term results.

If all it takes is confidence for a 17th OA pick like Armia to flourish, then he would have broken out for good the moemnt he had his first good scoring streak early in his career.

But on the other hand, if he can easily lose his confidence after a goalpost and two missed nets, then he would have also lost the confidence EVEN IF IT CAME FROM BEATING UP THE AHL earlier in the year.

 

[dcyhabs]

This just shows how change in "confidence" is over-rated when it comes to long-term results.

If all it takes is confidence for a 17th OA pick like Armia to flourish, then he would have broken out for good the moemnt he had his first good scoring streak early in his career.

But on the other hand, if he can easily lose his confidence after a goalpost and two missed nets, then he would have also lost the confidence EVEN IF IT CAME FROM BEATING UP THE AHL earlier in the year.

I doubt it is confidence, and just confidence doesn’t help. A confident bad player is worse than a bad player who knows he is bad.

More ice time, more chances to work on plays, a little more time and space, the option to try new things and work on weaknesses. All these things will let a player grow. They can try stuff and see if they should have more confidence in their game or if they need to simplify.

 

[Rapala]

Seriously? You ignore all of the examples I gave because I included Shutt whose rookie season by the way came after a first round exit? And there are people who 'liked' that non-answer?

What about Koivu, who joined up after missing the playoffs, or Suzuki, same circumstance?

Then you try to claim that Roy is better suited to the top 6 than RHP. OK, maybe, but he still might not be ahead of all these guys on the first day he comes up:
Suzuki-Caufield-Dach-Monahan-Newhook-Anderson

Furthermore, even if Roy sneaks in as #6 because he is already better than Anderson and Slaf and Pearson and RHP in your mind, that hardly makes it a RULE like you and others wanted to make it - that a player must rot in the minors if he is not ready for a top-6 role the day he is called up. Third line = not good, beneath the player. I once had a 12 year old tell me that "I'm not playing right field, it's a stupid position" after he made an Intercity team when in the past he played shortstop in house league. Brilliant - he got to play bench instead.

How about instead of twisting yourself into a pretzel to avoid ever admitting you made a (gasp) overly zealous claim, you just admit that a third line role with say a Monahan or Dach or Newhook at C is worthy of most rookies' entitled eminence. Or that playing with Jake Evans, while maybe just a stepping stone, won't kill him. Cheese is Price.

By the way, I really like Joshua Roy and think he is our best winger prospect. But enough is enough. The AHL is not the NHL, and thousands have lived the difference and had to adjust to the best league in the world before seeing their roles grow.

I didn't and won't read a word of this crap. Why do you feel the need to write a book on the subject. I prefer that Roy gets called up in his current role which is top 6 end of story.
You don't. Great Onwards and upwards.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

If confidence is all Armia needs, then why has he never locked in great production after successful moments gave him more confidence?

Armia lacks compete and lacks footspeed. Those two combined will sink a player. I am convinced that Armia gets hyped for international games but not club games.

 

[LesCanadiens]

Nice analysis by David at Elite Prospects:

 

[dcyhabs]

I didn't and won't read a word of this crap. Why do you feel the need to write a book on the subject. I prefer that Roy gets called up in his current role which is top 6 end of story.
You don't. Great Onwards and upwards.

It’s a discussion board. “I think X and will ignore all additional information” may work in politics but it would make for a pretty dull and quiet site.

 

[Rapala]

It’s a discussion board. “I think X and will ignore all additional information” may work in politics but it would make for a pretty dull and quiet site.

It's not valid information IMO. Using a dynasty team as an argument sealed that deal.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Laval doesn't play for like a week. What kind of scheduling is this?

 

[jfm133]

I hope that all those wanting Roy to stay in the AHL were saying the same thing about Galchenyuk, KK and Slaf at 18 and 19, otherwise you are applying a double standard. That being said, I am not for calling up Roy right now. I am preaching patience for all young players, but I just don't understand the double standard. Also, the +/- argument to justify keeping him in the AHL is ridiculous. +/- is a team stat, and Roy got several points on the PP. Also, using it on a five game sample is even more ridiculous. It could be just pure badluck for Roy and not his fault at all on many goals against.

 

[DAChampion]

I hope that all those wanting Roy to stay in the AHL were saying the same thing about Galchenyuk, KK and Slaf at 18 and 19, otherwise you are applying a double standard.

I argued that each of the first three were rushed. Galchenyuk should have finished the year in the CHL, and as for Kotkaniemi and Slafkovsky I wasn't sure if Finland or Laval was the better option.

Not sure if that applies to Roy. He's in his D+3. I wouldn't call him up yet because a 5-game sample should not be overestimated, but I don't see the problem with calling him up in January if he's still doing very well.

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

Not sure why people say there’s no opening in the Top 6 when half of them aren’t top 6 players. Bring him up to play first line and let him take a run at the Calder

Why not let him get better conditioning and used to the PRO game so that he is more equipped with everything other than just skill to play in the NHL?

 

[Habs4Life]

Why not let him get better conditioning and used to the PRO game so that he is more equipped with everything other than just skill to play in the NHL?

Exactlllyyyyy

 

[Milhouse40]

I hope that all those wanting Roy to stay in the AHL were saying the same thing about Galchenyuk, KK and Slaf at 18 and 19, otherwise you are applying a double standard. That being said, I am not for calling up Roy right now. I am preaching patience for all young players, but I just don't understand the double standard. Also, the +/- argument to justify keeping him in the AHL is ridiculous. +/- is a team stat, and Roy got several points on the PP. Also, using it on a five game sample is even more ridiculous. It could be just pure badluck for Roy and not his fault at all on many goals against.

For me it's all about patience and make sure it's the right move and the right timing and especially for Roy more than any other right now.

He's obviously the offensive catalyst in Laval and the entire AHL right now.
That's so much value in terms of building confidence.

He's on fire, it's time throw as much fuel on that fire as possible.....and he has more chance to hit a wall in the NHL if we cash in too early. I want to keep throwing more fuel and then bring him as soon as a real opening appears.

This one seems special.
It needs to be handle accordingly.

 

[Destopcorner]

More importantly what number will he wear with the big club? Too bad because he looks great with 10.

Thought the same thing about 10, ho well. At least he'll get to choose his number unlike bergevin's era.... 13, 19, 27, 96 are my bets. He will wear it for a while if stars are aligned for once.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

 

[Redux91]

When you have 11 points in 5 games and are still a minus in the +/- that means you are on the ice for a lot of goals against.

It's true, his D needs work sure
But have you SEEN the 2 goalies Sv % and GAA?? Holy jumpin

 

[nhlfan9191]

Thought the same thing about 10, ho well. At least he'll get to choose his number unlike bergevin's era.... 13, 19, 27, 96 are my bets. He will wear it for a while if stars are aligned for once.

I’ve been getting great vibes from this kid for awhile now. Im praying things keep going the way they are.

 

[Wats]

The biggest bright spot of this season so far. Good to see his silky smooth transition to the pro game. Hopefully they give him another few weeks down there before calling him up. Let him deal will facing extra defensive attention a bit more.

I hope that all those wanting Roy to stay in the AHL were saying the same thing about Galchenyuk, KK and Slaf at 18 and 19, otherwise you are applying a double standard. That being said, I am not for calling up Roy right now. I am preaching patience for all young players, but I just don't understand the double standard. Also, the +/- argument to justify keeping him in the AHL is ridiculous. +/- is a team stat, and Roy got several points on the PP. Also, using it on a five game sample is even more ridiculous. It could be just pure badluck for Roy and not his fault at all on many goals against.

Clearly you have not read the whole saga on how Habs are ruining their prospects by rushing them...

 

[BaseballCoach]

For me it's all about patience and make sure it's the right move and the right timing and especially for Roy more than any other right now.

He's obviously the offensive catalyst in Laval and the entire AHL right now.
That's so much value in terms of building confidence.

He's on fire, it's time throw as much fuel on that fire as possible.....and he has more chance to hit a wall in the NHL if we cash in too early. I want to keep throwing more fuel and then bring him as soon as a real opening appears.

This one seems special.
It needs to be handle accordingly.

Roy does not lack confidence!! When he played in the exhibition games against half NHLers and half AHLers he did not have the same results. His environment matters. Roy is a player with limited speed who needs to know exactly where to be on both sides of the puck, and he showed himself unable AT THIS TIME to make the direct jump from Junior to NHL and be a top 9 player. The fourth line however has to play an energy game to some degree and keep the puck out of our own net and Roy is not suited for that role yet.

After some months learning to adjust to the faster game of the AHL compared to Junior, he will hopefully be ready for his NEXT adjustment period, starting in the bottom 6 in the NHL.

Confidence has nothing to do with this. He had confidence a month ago and could not stand out against opponents who were only 50% NHLers.

He needs to hone his skills to be effective with the wheels God gave him, and he will.

Thought the same thing about 10, ho well. At least he'll get to choose his number unlike bergevin's era.... 13, 19, 27, 96 are my bets. He will wear it for a while if stars are aligned for once.

Oops - not 19, LOL

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

I'm perfectly fine letting him do really well in the AHL all season. There are still a lot of vets taking space on the main roster and Dvo is coming back soon. There would be no point in having Roy play 10 minutes on a random line. Let him get everything he can get as a rookie out of the AHL, like PK did in 09.

 

[NotProkofievian]

I would need to know the shooting percentage and how he is playing. If I don't have that, I will conclude in case 1 that he is on a hot streak, but that it is now more possible he gets his 80 points than I thought before those 4 games.

In case two I'd think that he is back to normal, 7 points in 8 games, in the ballpark of previous seasons.

In case 3, I might start to worry that something is wrong this year (physical or mental issue to work through). But if he hit 6 goalposts and Caufield missed 4 empty nets on his passes, I would not worry.

Right, you don't get it. The three cases all have the same meaning, because they're all a sample of 4 games. The 8 goals and 4 assists has the same meaning as 0 goals and 0 assists because it's the same 4 games. You mention his shooting percentage, it could be 100%, it could be 0%, his linemates could have a shooting percentage of 100%, or 0%, his opponents could have a shooting percentage of 100% or 0%. That's what happens in sample sizes of 4, which is why they don't mean anything.

 

[Frankenheimer]

For those advocating for him to stay in the AHL, it's actually quite rare for a player of his age to be leading the AHL and to have this ppg/average. AHL point leaders are generally a who's who of aging journeymen or late bloomers. Keeping Roy in the AHL scoring at this level would be unusual and against precedent. Imagine a 20 year old scoring 2ppg being kept in the AHL all year. Would basically be unheard of.

Not saying it's the wrong decision, but it requires a pretty significant justification.

 

[Toene]

For those advocating for him to stay in the AHL, it's actually quite rare for a player of his age to be leading the AHL and to have this ppg/average. AHL point leaders are generally a who's who of aging journeymen or late bloomers. Keeping Roy in the AHL scoring at this level would be unusual and against precedent. Imagine a 20 year old scoring 2ppg being kept in the AHL all year. Would basically be unheard of.

Not saying it's the wrong decision, but it requires a pretty significant justification.

The sample is too small. Try him there at least 20 games before reaching any kind of conclusion. People are so starved for talent and I understand but jeez.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Right, you don't get it. The three cases all have the same meaning, because they're all a sample of 4 games. The 8 goals and 4 assists has the same meaning as 0 goals and 0 assists because it's the same 4 games. You mention his shooting percentage, it could be 100%, it could be 0%, his linemates could have a shooting percentage of 100%, or 0%, his opponents could have a shooting percentage of 100% or 0%. That's what happens in sample sizes of 4, which is why they don't mean anything.

It's not all or nothing.

12 points in 4 games would be the best 4 game stretch Suzuki ever had. That has some real influence on expected points for the season. There is a good chance his mean level will be his best ever as well.

Without doing all the math I have done in univertsity for this, I would say that right now Suzuki's expected point total is in the low 60s, with 3 points in 4 games. That is a similar pace to the last two seasons.

If Suzuki had 15 points after 8 games, I'm estimating that a proper analysis would show him projecting around 75-80 points in 82 games. The four great games have some effect but they are not projecting to be the new normal either.

 

[BaseballCoach]

For those advocating for him to stay in the AHL, it's actually quite rare for a player of his age to be leading the AHL and to have this ppg/average. AHL point leaders are generally a who's who of aging journeymen or late bloomers. Keeping Roy in the AHL scoring at this level would be unusual and against precedent. Imagine a 20 year old scoring 2ppg being kept in the AHL all year. Would basically be unheard of.

Not saying it's the wrong decision, but it requires a pretty significant justification.

First of all, I am advocating bring him up not before 42 games, based on his entire game, not just points, and that I think it will take at least a few months to hone his entire game. Also, after 42 games, he will not blow a year of RFA eligibility.

However, implicit in my recommendation is the belief that this 5 game sample size will regress to the mean, which I assume will be less than 1 ppg, maybe close to it.

If after 25 games, he really has 55 points or even 40+ points, I'd be willing to bring him up and worry about the 40 game threshhold when we get close to it and if his contribution at the NHL level is iffy. But his role would be strictly as an offensive specialist if his gamne is not refined yet.