Prospect Info: Joshua Roy Part 2

[DAChampion]

At least Roy will get a good opportunity to grow in the AHL.

He won't have Lefebvre tie his skates, play him on the fourth line, ask him to fight, tell him not to score, and keep him off the PK and PP.

How future is in his hands.

 

[Scriptor]

By my own logic, i don't expect Heineman to be a top six forward. (He could). I could see him in the Armia role tho(depth.)

If he cant establish himself as a regular NHLer this season(D+4), his NHL career is in jeopardy.

Until Roy has a big year, its where he is trending.

Not much to say for that.

 

[Jaynki]

Not much to say for that.

Dont worry, i am well aware you dont have much to say

 

[Scriptor]

Dont worry, i am well aware you dont have much to say

I just meant, what do you answer, "That's my logic."

Can't argue about that. Just disagree. Firmly, even, but that doesn't mean you aren't entitled to your opinion.

Just thinker's too dogmatic and based on D+1 = this, D + 2 = that,D + 4 = do or die, etc., etc.

Doesn't seem to matter which player or which situation.

If my logic went like that, I wouldn't bother watching hockey.

Cookie-cutter logic.

 

[Jaynki]

I just meant, what do you answer, "That's my logic."

Can't argue about that. Just disagree. Firmly, even, but that doesn't mean you aren't entitled to your opinion.

Just thinker's too dogmatic and based on D+1 = this, D + 2 = that,D + 4 = do or die, etc., etc.

Doesn't seem to matter which player or which situation.

If my logic went like that, I wouldn't bother watching hockey.

Cookie-cutter logic.

First, i want to apologise since i have not understand well. I responded "by my logic" to the other poster who said : "by your logic" Heineman is a bust. To which i answer "by my logic", if Heineman does not cut it this year, then his NHL career is in jeopardy (he is D+4, >90% of the NHL regulars have made it through this point)

There is no logic implied here. It was simply weird wording. Its simply that an overwhelming majority(>80%) of impact forward makes it in their D+3, and then the overwhelming majority of NHL regulars makes it by their D+4.

In Roy specific cases, of course we can (and should) use logic and i know there are a plethora of variables at play.

Its just that, Roy career so far is tracking with those of player that usually ends up being lower half of the line-up player. Thats a fact. But again, its flawed as f***. Many players still have been impact players at this point. Its simply that the dominant stats is not in his favour.

But its also a macro rule. Every player that takes this road will have specifically, individually have their micro variable.

Will Roy, considering the micro variable, will be part of the macro outlier and ends up a top six forward? Its very possible.

Suggesting this in no way cap his ceiling or denigrate his potential.

The only point i want to highlights with Roy is that we are craving for offense and he has not been able to crack it. There is top 6 spot open right now. The clock is ticking for Roy and the more time passes without him breakout out, its starting to look grimmer and grimmer for him. It may just be happening also. We will see.

Personally, i would consider packaging him in a trade (if he has any value) with picks if we can have established top six talent in the other end of the trade.

Sorry for the long post.

 

[FrankMTL]

JoRo (Sorry, I can't get on board with Wawa) with 3 assists (so far) in today's pre-season match for Laval. I'm expecting a big season from him. When was the lats time we had a 20 year old point per game player in the AHL? Yes Caufield was there, but only played in a few games.

 

[Mrb1p]

JoRo (Sorry, I can't get on board with Wawa) with 3 assists (so far) in today's pre-season match for Laval. I'm expecting a big season from him. When was the lats time we had a 20 year old point per game player in the AHL? Yes Caufield was there, but only played in a few games.

KK was ppg.
I think Hudon was close.

 

[FrankMTL]

KK was ppg.
I think Hudon was close.

KK played in only 13 games in Laval...and yes he did have 13 points. Hudon had 57 in 75.

I mean like over most of a season, not a small sample size.

 

[Mrb1p]

KK played in only 13 games in Laval...and yes he did have 13 points. Hudon had 57 in 75.

I mean like over most of a season, not a small sample size.

I think the best ppg for a u23 player over large sample is Subban... Lol. Bleak, yes.

 

[dcyhabs]

I think the best ppg for a u23 player over large sample is Subban... Lol. Bleak, yes.

Not as 20 year olds, but loads of vets. Some older prospects:

Max had 32 points in 27 games on his last callup at 21/22.

Jason Ward at 22 who never found chemistry like he had with Benoit Gratton in the AHL, Gratton was smaller, older, and scored less than Ward so he never got an NHL shot.

Though Gratton also exceeded a ppg, but as a vet, pretty close as an older prospect...

Balej was over at 21 or so. He's probably the closest to a 20 year old.

AK47 at 21. A few days older.

Desharnais at 22.

Edit: Most guys who would have had a chance didn't play in the AHL.

So many of these guys either busted or got flamed on this board.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I hope he crushes it and I hope they give him the full year.

 

[Goldthorpe]

I mean like over most of a season, not a small sample size.

I don't know the answer, but rookies scoring at a PPG pace in the AHL on their first pro season don't tend to stay there very long.

If this isn't just a flash in the pan and Wawa keeps that kind of production in the next few weeks, we can expect him to graduate pretty quickly.

 

[Mrb1p]

For U21.

Michael Riesen had .78 in 00.
The its Maxwell.
Then its Hudon.

Its f***ing pathetic.

 

[Dutronc]

Stud city

 

[Goldthorpe]

People have these grand visions about the AHL being a development league, but the true is that it's more of a "parking" league.

Most NHL regular players will either make the big league right away, or will spend just enough time in the AHL to get their pro feet wet before graduating.

Yes, sometimes, a player will spend 2-3 years in the AHL before making it. The vast majority of them will be bottom-6 or bottom-pair guys.

Once in a blue moon you'll have a situation like RHP where he may play top-6 after years of AHL development, but then, maybe it's just because we don't have a lot of depth.

But aside from that, the vast majority of players who "linger on" in the AHL won't amount for anything. It sucks but it's the sad truth. Not because "we suck at development", but just because the NHL is a very elite league, and the very best guys will tend to already be the very best in their early twenties. True late bloomers are just rare.

 

[417]

For U21.

Michael Riesen had .78 in 00.
The its Maxwell.
Then its Hudon.

Its f***ing pathetic.

Even Riesen wasn’t Habs property, I believe he was an Oilers prospect since IIRC, they shared their AHL affiliate with the Habs/Bulldogs in those days.

 

[McGuires Corndog]

I don't know the answer, but rookies scoring at a PPG pace in the AHL on their first pro season don't tend to stay there very long.

If this isn't just a flash in the pan and Wawa keeps that kind of production in the next few weeks, we can expect him to graduate pretty quickly.

In my ideal world he spends a full year down there, but there’s definitely scenarios where he could finish the year with Montreal.

I think by next season he’s in the NHL.

 

[CheldishGamibno]

Even Riesen wasn’t Habs property, I believe he was an Oilers prospect since IIRC, they shared their AHL affiliate with the Habs/Bulldogs in those days.

Yeah, just looked at his stats. Had a great season in the A at D+3 and D+4. Even played 12 games in the NHL at 22 y/o in that year. Then left for Switzerland at 23 and never came back. Was a 6ft2 1st round pick too. Weird.

 

[Skip Bayless]

Do we have video of him cooking on Belleville today?

 

[HabzSauce]

Wait that's Davidson lol. They're on Habs subreddit. This one is Roy dishing to mesar:

 

[WatchfulElm]

People have these grand visions about the AHL being a development league, but the true is that it's more of a "parking" league.

Most NHL regular players will either make the big league right away, or will spend just enough time in the AHL to get their pro feet wet before graduating.

Yes, sometimes, a player will spend 2-3 years in the AHL before making it. The vast majority of them will be bottom-6 or bottom-pair guys.

Once in a blue moon you'll have a situation like RHP where he may play top-6 after years of AHL development, but then, maybe it's just because we don't have a lot of depth.

But aside from that, the vast majority of players who "linger on" in the AHL won't amount for anything. It sucks but it's the sad truth. Not because "we suck at development", but just because the NHL is a very elite league, and the very best guys will tend to already be the very best in their early twenties. True late bloomers are just rare.

Strongly disagree. Once in a blue moon is a massive exaggeration. It's a pretty common occurrence for a player to spend 1 to 3 years in the AHL, before establishing themselves as a top 6 forward, or top 4 D.

I put it to test with a small sample, from last season's best scorers. I skipped the top 50, since elite players generally don't spend much time in the AHL. So my sample are the next 20, from #51 to #70. We're still talking about top line players and top offensive D.

What's the average amount of games they spent in the AHL? 51.
But what's more interesting is the result, once you remove the 10 elite players who spent almost no time in the AHL (Heiskanen, Bratt, Fox, Horvat, Cozens, Scheifele, Buchnevich, Aho, Reinhart and Makar).
For the 10 others, the average amount of games played in the AHL is 101. That means more than one season. But more often it's 2 full seasons cut short by a few call ups and injuries. Those players are Montour, Verhaeghe, Toffoli, Fiala, Necas, McCann, Marchand, Zuccarello, Kempe and Couture. Not really what I'd call "once in a blue moon".

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

In my ideal world he spends a full year down there, but there’s definitely scenarios where he could finish the year with Montreal.

I think by next season he’s in the NHL.

I would argue that in an ideal world he proves to be too good to stay in the AHL and forces his way onto the NHL roster where he goes on to thrive.

 

[dcyhabs]

I would argue that in an ideal world he proves to be too good to stay in the AHL and forces his way onto the NHL roster where he goes on to thrive.

After Subban’s “he’s shredding the league but we’re going to leave him there anyway” AHL season I’m not sure anyone can force the promotion. I really hope Roy continues his scoring tear, though.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

After Subban’s “he’s shredding the league but we’re going to leave him there anyway” AHL season I’m not sure anyone can force the promotion. I really hope Roy continues his scoring tear, though.

Completely different management team and they did bring him up for two games and again at the end of the season for the playoffs.

People who parrott the nonsense of leaving players in the AHL for an entire season regardless of how well they play just don't understand what development actually is.

Roy is also a tricky player to evaluate as he will likely be better off playing with better players and might even be more productive in the NHL than in the AHL. I am totally on board with him starting in Laval and staying there until he can sustain a level of play for an extended period of time that justifies a move to the big club. I don't think calling him up after a spike in production is the wisest move but to keep him somewhere that he has outgrown is also a mistake. You always want to challenge young prospects without putting them over their heads. There comes a point where some players are better off developing at the highest level instead of exploiting the weaknesses of lower levels that they have figured out. This is where bad habits can form and non translatable patterns and tactics are unnecessarily embedded into their game.

 

[Scriptor]

Hopefully, getting called after a strong performance in the AHL will prevent Roy becoming the next easy whipping boy as a francophone product (francophone fans are the worst for that). Being picked in the 5th round already is an advanatage as expectations are lower.

Hope he ends up thriving in the NHL. Hughes definitely can use it in an attempt to complete his rebuild.

Fans can definitely use a breath of fresh air with a later rounds draft success.