Player Discussion Josh Norris (C) 6’-1” - Part 3

[bert]

Josh Norris is another one of our China doll players. So injury prone.
Zub, Chabot, the list goes on.
Chychrun is a ticking time bomb with his injury history as well.

Zub is not a china doll. When you play as hard as he does things happen, he has had some freak injuries then normal wear and tear. People need to look at this in context not just if/how a player gets hurt. Alfie got hurt lot at the start of his career and that was mostly due to being unlucky. Some players take all the hard minutes and play them hard. Injuries happen in those situations.

Do you know for a fact of his contract is insured against shoulder injuries?

I could not find reference to it when I looked online for articles. I know he had previous shoulder injuries prior to signing, so I wonder if it is a pre-existing condition. So it's been something I wondered about..

One thing to keep in mind about insurance is that it covers up to 80 percent of the contract. A U26 buyout relieves the Senators of 66.66 percent. So the actual money aspect will be very close. It comes down to whether they would rather be in LTI for 8 seasons with a large 8M of LTI cap to work around or have an average of 1.5M cap penalty for 9 seasons (first 3 seasons he has no hit).

Strategically a buyout makes more sense to me. But there are a lot of different factors.

A major benefit of a buyout is the cap flexibility over the next 3-4 years, which is the window with this core while all the big names are still cost controlled. No dealing the the competitive disadvantage of LTI, and the cap penalty is very close to 0 (100k credit each year 1-3, 600k penalty year 4, real dead cap doesn't start for 5 years).

Do not agree on any level. First of all he might come back which you are completely ignoring. Secondly this teams window is going to be longer than 3 to 4 years it hasnt even started yet. It was always supposed to be this year when you looked at the age of Stutzle, Sanderson and Greig but Dorion screwed up the goaltending and coaching so bad its been delayed.

This management group is going to be looking for sustainable success they are getting another elite asset this year. All the teams best players other than Giroux and its core are all 24 and under depending on how you feel about Chabot and Batherson. Who are both also only 25 and 27.

Completely burnt cap and way more money for ownership rather than hoping the player rehabs and being creative with the LTIR money is a way way way better option.

Even if somehow you were able to buyout his contract because this time the shoulder didn’t need surgery and healed quicker or whatever the case may be, this is a Dorion/Melnyk way to do business. Norris hasn’t played himself into a buyout, he had a slow year coming back from major surgery - everyone, including the players, would know they did it cause of his health. The amount you save is not worth the loss of goodwill it would create in the locker room.

They have nothing to do from here but help him recover and hope he can get past it. Yeah this is a business but Ottawa of all places can’t be treating their players like this.

Bingo! This too.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Even if somehow you were able to buyout his contract because this time the shoulder didn’t need surgery and healed quicker or whatever the case may be, this is a Dorion/Melnyk way to do business. Norris hasn’t played himself into a buyout, he had a slow year coming back from major surgery - everyone, including the players, would know they did it cause of his health. The amount you save is not worth the loss of goodwill it would create in the locker room.

They have nothing to do from here but help him recover and hope he can get past it. Yeah this is a business but Ottawa of all places can’t be treating their players like this.

I think yes, treating players with respect and not doing them dirty (cough, Hossa, cough) is something I want from the organization.

But, if a player honestly isn't worth his contract, you really do need to seriously look at buying them out if the opportunity presents itself. Let's be honest here....this organization treats players incredibly well and caters to them, but we're still on the overwhelming majority of no trade lists in the league. We have to start forgetting about the small town syndrome we have, and start being more business focused. Catering to the last 2-3 cores on this team just leads to clubhouse culture, and they still bolt when they get older and start Cup chasing.

Time to go from groveling small town team, to a professional organization that balances what is best for the team first, along with treating players consistently and fairly.

 

[bert]

I think yes, treating players with respect and not doing them dirty (cough, Hossa, cough) is something I want from the organization.

But, if a player honestly isn't worth his contract, you really do need to seriously look at buying them out if the opportunity presents itself. Let's be honest here....this organization treats players incredibly well and caters to them, but we're still on the overwhelming majority of no trade lists in the league. We have to start forgetting about the small town syndrome we have, and start being more business focused. Catering to the last 2-3 cores on this team just leads to clubhouse culture, and they still bolt when they get older and start Cup chasing.

Time to go from groveling small town team, to a professional organization that balances what is best for the team first, along with treating players consistently and fairly.

How does it make them better by buying him out exactly?

Theres the cap space and they keep the asset in case he gets better. They buy him out and they dont get that amount. I am so tired of the buy out mentality brought on by Dorions horrendous moves. If you're gonna buy someone out you do it with someone you know sucks like Korpisalo.

 

[PlayOn]

I think yes, treating players with respect and not doing them dirty (cough, Hossa, cough) is something I want from the organization.

But, if a player honestly isn't worth his contract, you really do need to seriously look at buying them out if the opportunity presents itself. Let's be honest here....this organization treats players incredibly well and caters to them, but we're still on the overwhelming majority of no trade lists in the league. We have to start forgetting about the small town syndrome we have, and start being more business focused. Catering to the last 2-3 cores on this team just leads to clubhouse culture, and they still bolt when they get older and start Cup chasing.

Time to go from groveling small town team, to a professional organization that balances what is best for the team first, along with treating players consistently and fairly.

Norris has played like 50-60 games since signing that contract, almost all of which came after surgery. Just because there’s a cheap buyout option this summer it doesn’t mean it’s not fully transparent why the team would suddenly decide they know for sure Norris isn’t worth his contract.

Norris is a good player. Does he ever return to form? I don’t know. I don’t think we will know for awhile. We kind of just have to live with that. I’d love to see an example of a player that was signed to a long-term deal and bought out after playing 60 games, is there one? It’s silly.

We will always be on the majority of no trade lists. Thats all the more reason we should be treating the players who are here like human beings.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

The Norris buyout was a fun exercise to see what it would look like, but it's not realistic at all. He wasn't performing bad enough that they would have considered it before the injury, and now he's injured again long term almost certainly with that same shoulder, so he can't be bought out. It had to happen this summer and he's injured, so not an option. They're gonna have to take their lumps on this one and just move forward without him in their plans. If he ever does come back and can actually stick, deal with it then, but I'd like to see management operate as if Stutzle-Pinto-Greig are their top 3 C's long term.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

Feel bad for Norris but man we should never have given this guy such a long term contract with how fragile he is. At least we have plenty of cap space going forward I guess.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

How does it make them better by buying him out exactly?

If they honestly feel like his shoulder (assuming the recent injury is that shoulder) will be an ongoing problem and he likely won't be a full time player in the future, it might be better to look at other options.

But it's still up in the air at this point, as we don't know for sure what the injury is and if it's part of his shoulder issues.

And it isn't just Norris. They shouldn't waffle in regards to buying out Harmonic, if that's also an option. Not to let sentiments get in the way of the right decision for the organization.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

How does it make them better by buying him out exactly?

Theres the cap space and they keep the asset in case he gets better. They buy him out and they dont get that amount. I am so tired of the buy out mentality brought on by Dorions horrendous moves. If you're gonna buy someone out you do it with someone you know sucks like Korpisalo.

We don't even know where he is wrt injury, treatment, recovery time... and how his previous injuries were impacted , if at all.

 

[Alex1234]

Do you know for a fact of his contract is insured against shoulder injuries?

I could not find reference to it when I looked online for articles. I know he had previous shoulder injuries prior to signing, so I wonder if it is a pre-existing condition. So it's been something I wondered about..

One thing to keep in mind about insurance is that it covers up to 80 percent of the contract. A U26 buyout relieves the Senators of 66.66 percent. So the actual money aspect will be very close. It comes down to whether they would rather be in LTI for 8 seasons with a large 8M of LTI cap to work around or have an average of 1.5M cap penalty for 9 seasons (first 3 seasons he has no hit).

Strategically a buyout makes more sense to me. But there are a lot of different factors.

A major benefit of a buyout is the cap flexibility over the next 3-4 years, which is the window with this core while all the big names are still cost controlled. No dealing the the competitive disadvantage of LTI, and the cap penalty is very close to 0 (100k credit each year 1-3, 600k penalty year 4, real dead cap doesn't start for 5 years).

The window for what if I may ask?

 

[Larionov]

The more I think about Norris the more pessimistic I become. Since when do chronic joint problems like that just magically go away? He has already had surgery on the shoulder twice, and further surgery is generally not advisable - that first AC joint repair already has a 20-30% failure rate on the first surgery. People in this position are generally advised to strengthen the area as much as they can, "let pain be your guide", etc. They have to accept that their range of motion may be permanently compromised, and they certainly aren't playing pro sports. I fear that this is the end of the line for Norris in his NHL career. If I am wrong, I will happily return here and eat my plate of crow...

 

[Golden_Jet]

Do you know for a fact of his contract is insured against shoulder injuries?

I could not find reference to it when I looked online for articles. I know he had previous shoulder injuries prior to signing, so I wonder if it is a pre-existing condition. So it's been something I wondered about..

One thing to keep in mind about insurance is that it covers up to 80 percent of the contract. A U26 buyout relieves the Senators of 66.66 percent. So the actual money aspect will be very close. It comes down to whether they would rather be in LTI for 8 seasons with a large 8M of LTI cap to work around or have an average of 1.5M cap penalty for 9 seasons (first 3 seasons he has no hit).

Strategically a buyout makes more sense to me. But there are a lot of different factors.

A major benefit of a buyout is the cap flexibility over the next 3-4 years, which is the window with this core while all the big names are still cost controlled. No dealing the the competitive disadvantage of LTI, and the cap penalty is very close to 0 (100k credit each year 1-3, 600k penalty year 4, real dead cap doesn't start for 5 years).

Teams insure the top 5-7 contracts, depending upon team.
There is no buyout when on LTIR.

 

[Golden_Jet]

LTIR isn't free cap.

LTIR is free cap, if out for the season.

Id argue that 8M LTI for 6 years is more of a competitive disadvantage than his buyout dead cap.

There is no buyout if on LTI for 6 years, that has been covered already.
If ruled healthy than can buyout.
If on 6 year LTI, then no buyout.

 

[RickyLafleur]

It is so frustrating being a senators fan. Almost nothing to cheer for for now 10+ years outside the 2017 run.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

LTIR is free cap, if out for the season.

There is no buyout if on LTI for 6 years, that has been covered already.
If ruled healthy than can buyout.
If on 6 year LTI, then no buyout.

Something was lot in translation, I never suggested he could be bought out if injured. I only meant to compare the two situations in terms of which one would be a greater competitive disadvantage.

 

[Larionov]

The Norris buyout was a fun exercise to see what it would look like, but it's not realistic at all. He wasn't performing bad enough that they would have considered it before the injury, and now he's injured again long term almost certainly with that same shoulder, so he can't be bought out. It had to happen this summer and he's injured, so not an option. They're gonna have to take their lumps on this one and just move forward without him in their plans. If he ever does come back and can actually stick, deal with it then, but I'd like to see management operate as if Stutzle-Pinto-Greig are their top 3 C's long term.

Michael Andlauer is a businessman, and he understands the concept of sunk costs. The Norris contract is looking for all the world like it is going to be a sunk cost - you just have to swallow it and move on...

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Michael Andlauer is a businessman, and he understands the concept of sunk costs. The Norris contract is looking for all the world like it is going to be a sunk cost - you just have to swallow it and move on...

Ya, there's really no way to proceed at this point but to keep him and hope for the best or leave him on LTIR. Obviously nobody would trade for him at the moment and the buyout is off the table now anyways.

 

[Xspyrit]

The guys you listed would all be considered core or maybe inner core + outer core.

There's also 10 guys listed. The other roster positions would be largely filler.

Today on the drive they were talking to Jacques. He referenced compete level and structure as the things needing improvement

It strikes me from our spot in the standings and listening to Jacques that the brass feels there's a problem with the core. I just doubt he was referring to the compete level of the bottom 6 and bottom pair as being the problem

Among the positions that need to be "rebuilt" that I was talking about :

- 2 guys in the Top-9, and 3 when Giroux retires

- A top-4 D-man, a LHD that needs to be transformed into a RHD

- 2 of the bottom-3 D-men, that may not seem important but it is as injuries happen OFTEN.

- 2 goalies, can maybe afford to keep Forsberg that 1 year though

- 3 of the Bottom-4 forwards, maybe can keep Kastelic depending on who complements him (need some speed and muscle)


We're talking about 35-50% rebuild just after "completing" a 100% rebuild...

Among the 10 guys I listed, who would you move? Curious to hear your thoughts

 

[JD1]

Double edged sword, very risky to not sign anybody and wait from him to come back



Among the positions that need to be "rebuilt" that I was talking about :

- 2 guys in the Top-9, and 3 when Giroux retires

- A top-4 D-man, a LHD that needs to be transformed into a RHD

- 2 of the bottom-3 D-men, that may not seem important but it is as injuries happen OFTEN.

- 2 goalies, can maybe afford to keep Forsberg that 1 year though

- 3 of the Bottom-4 forwards, maybe can keep Kastelic depending on who complements him (need some speed and muscle)


We're talking about 35-50% rebuild just after "completing" a 100% rebuild...

Among the 10 guys I listed, who would you move? Curious to hear your thoughts

My thoughts are that when Jacques referred to the compete level not being where it needs to be, he was referring to the core +, not the lineup filler.

 

[Xspyrit]

Easy, he only plays when we're in the playoffs.

But seriously, this could be a problem, and an incentive for the front office not to spend too much next season. I would understand them too, we still don't know if this roster is capable of playing playoff-worthy hockey.

Double edged sword, very risky to not sign anybody and wait from him to come back

It is so frustrating being a senators fan. Almost nothing to cheer for for now 10+ years outside the 2017 run.

I really enjoyed 2011-12 to 2016-17, won 3 rounds (3x more than the Leafs in last 20 years) and made the playoffs 4 times out of 6 seasons.

2012-13 was truly awesome, we fought hard despite all the adversity and key injuries (Spezza, Karlsson, Michalek, Cowen) and beat the Habs convincgly in the playoffs. That 2014-15 season was awesome too with Stone Hoffman and Pageau breaking out as solid players. We would have won that 1st round vs MTL if it wasn't for Subban vicious slash on Mark Stone's wrist

Funny that some people credited Dorion for that 2016-17 season, outside of Boucher, Brassard and then Burrows, not many changes. That team fell apart quickly and went into a 7 years downward spiral. Very little enjoyment in the last 7 seasons outside of the 2020 draft and the young guns. Thanks Pierre

My thoughts are that when Jacques referred to the compete level not being where it needs to be, he was referring to the core +, not the lineup filler.

So what do you think needs to be done? Changing the whole core would be another 5+ years rebuild, unless Staios is really competent

 

[JD1]

Double edged sword, very risky to not sign anybody and wait from him to come back



I really enjoyed 2011-12 to 2016-17, won 3 rounds (3x more than the Leafs in last 20 years) and made the playoffs 4 times out of 6 seasons.

2012-13 was truly awesome, we fought hard despite all the adversity and key injuries (Spezza, Karlsson, Michalek, Cowen) and beat the Habs convincgly in the playoffs. That 2014-15 season was awesome too with Stone Hoffman and Pageau breaking out as solid players. We would have won that 1st round vs MTL if it wasn't for Subban vicious slash on Mark Stone's wrist

Funny that some people credited Dorion for that 2016-17 season, outside of Boucher, Brassard and then Burrows, not many changes. That team fell apart quickly and went into a 7 years downward spiral. Very little enjoyment in the last 7 seasons outside of the 2020 draft and the young guns. Thanks Pierre



So what do you think needs to be done? Changing the whole core would be another 5+ years rebuild, unless Staios is really competent

Long before DJ was canned, I said multiple times that no one could consistently win with the goaltending we're getting. We don't agree on a lot but I think 30+ games into the Martin 2.0 era, that has been proven to be true. We obviously need to solve that problem

Of all the guys on our core, which guy is continually called out for compete? Chabot. You want to construct a team in a world where salary dollars are limited. Ok. You've got a stud #1D in Jake. You can debate Chychrun versus Chabot but I don't really think that given we have Jake, the role left over for Chabot simply isn't worth 8M. Maybe if he had 3 minutes a night of high end PK in his arsenal you could rationalize it but he doesn't. Jake plays pk, plays shut down, plays PP. There's not an 8 M role left. Maybe the play is getting rid of both of them.

 

[GCK]

Among the positions that need to be "rebuilt" that I was talking about :

- 2 guys in the Top-9, and 3 when Giroux retires

- A top-4 D-man, a LHD that needs to be transformed into a RHD

- 2 of the bottom-3 D-men, that may not seem important but it is as injuries happen OFTEN.

- 2 goalies, can maybe afford to keep Forsberg that 1 year though

- 3 of the Bottom-4 forwards, maybe can keep Kastelic depending on who complements him (need some speed and muscle)


We're talking about 35-50% rebuild just after "completing" a 100% rebuild...

Among the 10 guys I listed, who would you move? Curious to hear your thoughts

Yes we need 2 top 9 players.
- I’m not opposed to getting a veteran centre. We are so inexperienced down the middle. Lots of veteran options for the wing.

3 of our 10-13 forwards will likely be Kelly, Kastelic and MacEwan.
- We need 1 more vet there.

Giroux still has a few years left.

Change out Chychrun for a 2nd pair RD

Replace Branny and Hamonic with cheap vets and have Guenette be #7.

Replacing Korpisalo will take creativity.

So 3 forward, 3 D and hopefully a goalie.

Other than goalie not that hard.

 

[JD1]

Any update last night on the broadcast on the Norris situation?

 

[Xspyrit]

Long before DJ was canned, I said multiple times that no one could consistently win with the goaltending we're getting. We don't agree on a lot but I think 30+ games into the Martin 2.0 era, that has been proven to be true. We obviously need to solve that problem

Our goaltending wasn't great earlier in the season but it has been absolutely terrible since the coaching change for some reason. We have cut significantly the quantity and quality of chances against but maybe goalies confidence is low. In Forsberg's case, I think injuries have really affected him

Before January 11th vs After January 11th (3 weeks after the coaching, faster impact than expected, particularly since there was not a lot of practice time)

CA/60 : 61.13 vs 57.2
SA/60 : 31.42 vs 27.29
SCA/60 : 30.59 vs 25.79
HDCA/60 : 12.16 vs 10.08
xGA/60 : 3.13 vs 2.68
GA/60 : 3.62 vs 3.48

And that is including the last 3-4 games where things have started to fall apart again (hopefully it's just temporary)

It sucks because I could have seen Forsberg as one of our 2 goalies but doesn't look to be the case anymore. I was really not happy with Korpisalo signing at first but decided to give it a try since he had good stats since his surgery but now, I have no faith once again. That's the thing with Dorion, even though I knew, I always TRIED to give it a try lol

All that said, yes goaltending is finally our main problem this season because even with a much improved "team defense", it still sucks.

Of all the guys on our core, which guy is continually called out for compete? Chabot. You want to construct a team in a world where salary dollars are limited. Ok. You've got a stud #1D in Jake. You can debate Chychrun versus Chabot but I don't really think that given we have Jake, the role left over for Chabot simply isn't worth 8M. Maybe if he had 3 minutes a night of high end PK in his arsenal you could rationalize it but he doesn't. Jake plays pk, plays shut down, plays PP. There's not an 8 M role left. Maybe the play is getting rid of both of them.

As I have said many times before, Chabot is a finesse/skilled player with such smooth skating that it "looks" like he doesn't give an effort on TV but is a workhorse in reality. Only 2 players have played more minutes per game in the last 6 seasons. What Chabot brings is not due to his "compete" anyway, it's about his skating, his poise, his vision, his skill, his endurance, etc. You don't need ALL your players to be wrecking balls like Mathieu Joseph. How nice it would be to have Chabot paired with a Volchenkov though, instead of a Chychrun (which doesn't make sense) although their metrics aren't bad at all

IMO you need 2 dominant pairing and a low event one, Sanderson and Chabot can both anchor a pairing. I'd much much rather have Chabot at 8.0 AAV than Chychrun at 7.0 (if he doesn't get more)

And... you still haven't answered my question :

Among the 10 guys I listed, who would you move?


Your answer is : only Chabot? It's been proven countless times that this team is worse without Chabot though

 

[Xspyrit]

Yes we need 2 top 9 players.
- I’m not opposed to getting a veteran centre. We are so inexperienced down the middle. Lots of veteran options for the wing.

3 of our 10-13 forwards will likely be Kelly, Kastelic and MacEwan.
- We need 1 more vet there.

Giroux still has a few years left.

Change out Chychrun for a 2nd pair RD

Replace Branny and Hamonic with cheap vets and have Guenette be #7.

Replacing Korpisalo will take creativity.

So 3 forward, 3 D and hopefully a goalie.

Other than goalie not that hard.

- Maybe a guy like Henrique short term but he probably wants to win now (and that will be the problem)

- I would only keep Kastelic. Kelly on a 2-way if he agrees. He would see some NHL games anyway and would have a fairly big AHL contract so up to him, unless he thinks he can have a 1-way somewhere else.

- Agreed on Chychrun, do 2 trades if necessary but make that change

- I'd keep Brannstrom if we trade Chychrun but need a much better veteran depth guy than Hamonic.

- Yeah good luck with Korpisalo contract. Last Dorion's time ticking bomb gift (well not even, as we'll lose that 1st round pick down the road lol)

I don't think your changes would be enough to make a significant impact

 

[GCK]

- Maybe a guy like Henrique short term but he probably wants to win now (and that will be the problem)

- I would only keep Kastelic. Kelly on a 2-way if he agrees. He would see some NHL games anyway and would have a fairly big AHL contract so up to him, unless he thinks he can have a 1-way somewhere else.

- Agreed on Chychrun, do 2 trades if necessary but make that change

- I'd keep Brannstrom if we trade Chychrun but need a much better veteran depth guy than Hamonic.

- Yeah good luck with Korpisalo contract. Last Dorion's time ticking bomb gift (well not even, as we'll lose that 1st round pick down the road lol)

I don't think your changes would be enough to make a significant impact

Goaltending is definitely the biggest issue. Getting a sub 1.2M guy and sending the worst of the 3 to Belleville might be an option.

Brannstrom makes too much, he needs to go.

There are a lot of guys that can play 3LD for 1M on a 1 year deal.

We need to improve PK and GA. If we figure that out we are a playoff team.