Player Discussion Josh Norris (C) 6’-1” - Part 3

[Beech]

Come on Gary set us up with Celebrini.

I know your joking,

but take a look.. Who do you think Gary wants to set up with Celebrini. Last column is attendance.

Anaheim Ducks	58	20	35	2	1	43	151	207		15564
San Jose Sharks	57	15	37	1	4	35	120	222		13873

Ottawa Senators

57

25

29

3

0

53

190

203

17398

SJ and Anaheim have us beat by about 2000 fans.

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

Going to take longer than 6 weeks unless it's just a fracture.

But that’s what I was saying — I was thinking it might be a clavicle fracture

You don’t get an MRI for a clavicle fracture though, and it wasn’t violent enough for both (a clavicle fracture would have absorbed all of the energy) so I doubt that’s what it is at this point

 

[GCK]

On top of buying out Korpisalo we're going to be buying out Norris?

Opening up a crap ton of cap space in a weak UFA year when we're trying to get to the playoffs doesn't make a ton of sense.

We're already going to have a hard time spending our existing cap space if we trade Chychrun and Tarasenko, add another 12M in cap space would be a waste.

Not to mention buying out Norris would almost certainly piss Brady off and could lead to an actual demand to leave Ottawa, not just rumours/speculation.

I have no idea why you think it’s hard to spend in UFA.

 

[Ouroboros]

While Martin didn’t confirm that Norris re-injured the left shoulder he has had surgically repaired twice, we’re led to believe that’s likely the case after he left the club’s 4-1 loss to the Nashville Predators on Tuesday after knocked into the net on a hit by Cole Smith in the second period.

Norris was undergoing further tests before a decision is made on whether he’ll need surgery or rehab to fix the ailment, but at this point it would be surprising if suited up again this season.

Sounds like it's the shoulder again.

It was probably just a matter of time, unfortunately. Something was off from the jump, dating back to when he 'tweaked' it during training camp. Then somebody [maybe Dreger?] reported that the shoulder was bothering him all summer from the moment he began training.

 

[OD99]

What a weird play. I'm trying to remember seeing someone go so awkwardly and directly into that middle post before.

That poor guy is snakebitten. Hopefully rehab can fix it and he can have a full offseason to just strengthen that thing and maybe find a brace he can be comfortable with.

Just as he was skating well and being constantly engaged!

 

[robsenz]

But that’s what I was saying — I was thinking it might be a clavicle fracture

You don’t get an MRI for a clavicle fracture though, and it wasn’t violent enough for both (a clavicle fracture would have absorbed all of the energy) so I doubt that’s what it is at this point

I broke my colarbone a year ago cleanish and had some big fragmented pieces along with the break, I had an MRI done. Hoping its just a crack or something cause it did take me much longer then 6 weeks, Bone techincally heals within that time, but defintely shouldn't be playing full contact pro hockey within the time frame it took me a really long time to almost get back to normal, I think calcium build up made it funky for a bit, but it was practically good as new after 5 months and eventually lost the big bump I had.

Norris looked like it jammed pretty solid against the post, I didn't think my injury would be enough to get hurt, but freak accident, sometimes it doesn't take much. hopefully its not the reoccurring injury he has had.

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

The guys shoulder is jello at this point. He will have surgery again... miss half of next season and come back again. Sooner or later he will mess it up again and that will be it for Josh Norris.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I'll say it is tricky. The day we buy out Norris there will be a lineup of teams out the door looking to sign him for cheap. He could end up with a divisional rival who gets him on a very cap friendly contract, and he ends up sticking it up our @$$ four times a year...

At the same time, he's going to be super shy on the ice whenever he returns. His shoulder is held together on good wishes and hope. He wasn't exactly a physical player either when he was a rookie.....he can be easily neutralized with any physical contact.

I honestly wouldn't be that worried having him playing against us in the future. Only worry would be if our kids had the heart to actually bodycheck him or not as an opponent.

 

[ottawagm]

At the same time, he's going to be super shy on the ice whenever he returns. His shoulder is held together on good wishes and hope. He wasn't exactly a physical player either when he was a rookie.....he can be easily neutralized with any physical contact.

I honestly wouldn't be that worried having him playing against us in the future. Only worry would be if our kids had the heart to actually bodycheck him or not as an opponent.

He didn't feel comfortable taking slapshots after the last one. Maybe it'll feel better this time.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

I think Klefbom had shoulder issues and was forced to retire in his 20's. :/

 

[Knave]

Feels like the most optimistic scenario is a loop of upper body injury, slow start, begins to pick up pace and gets injured again.

The worst case being the injuries essentially end his career.

 

[Icelevel]

Feels like the most optimistic scenario is a loop of upper body injury, slow start, begins to pick up pace and gets injured again.

The worst case being the injuries essentially end his career.

Either way he gets tens of millions of dollars so..could be worse.

 

[Boud]

They could buy him out for a decent cost given he's still young but there might not be that much incentive to do so since he's going to be LTIRd and hopefully his contract is insured, I would assume it definitely is.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Feels like the most optimistic scenario is a loop of upper body injury, slow start, begins to pick up pace and gets injured again.

The worst case being the injuries essentially end his career.

Honestly, I think the worst case (for the team) is the former. If you can't rely on the guy and he's constantly in and out of the lineup....how do you plan? Missing a 2C is a big hole in the lineup.

 

[Sun God Nika]

Honestly, I think the worst case (for the team) is the former. If you can't rely on the guy and he's constantly in and out of the lineup....how do you plan? Missing a 2C is a big hole in the lineup.

I agree . It’s better to have Josh Norris for no games and on the LTIR long term so you can get a replacement. Vs dedicating 8m to a guy who will give u 40-50 games and most of those games not even being at his full capabilities

 

[bert]

There's absolutely no way they buy him out. 0 chance. His contract is insured. His situation sucks but this team has a very good 2 c in Pinto. And Grieg as a 3 c they're lucky to have this depth. If Norris comes back great he can play wing. If not they LTIR him and use his money.

 

[Senovision]

Josh Norris is another one of our China doll players. So injury prone.
Zub, Chabot, the list goes on.
Chychrun is a ticking time bomb with his injury history as well.

 

[slamigo]

They could buy him out for a decent cost given he's still young but there might not be that much incentive to do so since he's going to be LTIRd and hopefully his contract is insured, I would assume it definitely is.

Can't buy out an injured player though.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

There's absolutely no way they buy him out. 0 chance. His contract is insured. His situation sucks but this team has a very good 2 c in Pinto. And Grieg as a 3 c they're lucky to have this depth. If Norris comes back great he can play wing. If not they LTIR him and use his money

Do you know for a fact of his contract is insured against shoulder injuries?

I could not find reference to it when I looked online for articles. I know he had previous shoulder injuries prior to signing, so I wonder if it is a pre-existing condition. So it's been something I wondered about..

One thing to keep in mind about insurance is that it covers up to 80 percent of the contract. A U26 buyout relieves the Senators of 66.66 percent. So the actual money aspect will be very close. It comes down to whether they would rather be in LTI for 8 seasons with a large 8M of LTI cap to work around or have an average of 1.5M cap penalty for 9 seasons (first 3 seasons he has no hit).

Strategically a buyout makes more sense to me. But there are a lot of different factors.

A major benefit of a buyout is the cap flexibility over the next 3-4 years, which is the window with this core while all the big names are still cost controlled. No dealing the the competitive disadvantage of LTI, and the cap penalty is very close to 0 (100k credit each year 1-3, 600k penalty year 4, real dead cap doesn't start for 5 years).

 

[Big Muddy]

I know the Senators could place him on LTIR, but the thought of LTIR through to the end of the 2029-30 just seems weird. I know things like this have happened before, but it still does seem a little strange. If there's a lesson to be learned from this, I suppose its you never know what's going to happen I guess?

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Can't buy out an injured player though.

Basically this.

They can buy time by going to arbitration with someone like Parker Kelly, which gives them a second buyout window in late July or early August. But if this is a major injury, he is unlikely to be cleared. On top of that, he can still contest the buyout if there is a grey area ala Cowen with Toronto.

This is the last offseason where he qualifies for the u26 buyout window. If he makes it through this off season, then a buyout probably doesn't make much sense next year. The only reason a buyout is enticing is because it clears such a large percentage of his cap hit with the 1/6th over twice the remaining length and the cap credit the Sens would get this off season for underpaying him in real money relative to his cap.

I know the Senators could place him on LTIR, but the thought of LTIR through to the end of the 2029-30 just seems weird. I know things like this have happened before, but it still does seem a little strange. If there's a lesson to be learned from this, I suppose its you never know what's going to happen I guess?

LTIR isn't free cap.

Id argue that 8M LTI for 6 years is more of a competitive disadvantage than his buyout dead cap.

 

[Big Muddy]

Do you know for a fact of his contract is insured against shoulder injuries?

I could not find reference to it when I looked online for articles. I know he had previous shoulder injuries prior to signing, so I wonder if it is a pre-existing condition. So it's been something I wondered about..

One thing to keep in mind about insurance is that it covers up to 80 percent of the contract. A U26 buyout relieves the Senators of 66.66 percent. So the actual money aspect will be very close. It comes down to whether they would rather be in LTI for 8 seasons with a large 8M of LTI cap to work around or have an average of 1.5M cap penalty for 9 seasons (first 3 seasons he has no hit).

Strategically a buyout makes more sense to me. But there are a lot of different factors.

A major benefit of a buyout is the cap flexibility over the next 3-4 years, which is the window with this core while all the big names are still cost controlled. No dealing the the competitive disadvantage of LTI, and the cap penalty is very close to 0 (100k credit each year 1-3, 600k penalty year 4, real dead cap doesn't start for 5 years).

Another simpler summary would be that the buyout would average about $1.45 m/year until the end of the 2035-36 season AND there's small cap credit of approx $100k for the first three years. 2029-30 is the ugliest year ($2.4 m cap hit).

 

[Big Muddy]

Basically this.

They can buy time by going to arbitration with someone like Parker Kelly, which gives them a second buyout window in late July or early August. But if this is a major injury, he is unlikely to be cleared. On top of that, he can still contest the buyout if there is a grey area ala Cowen with Toronto.

This is the last offseason where he qualifies for the u26 buyout window. If he makes it through this off season, then a buyout probably doesn't make much sense next year. The only reason a buyout is enticing is because it clears such a large percentage of his cap hit with the 1/6th over twice the remaining length and the cap credit the Sens would get this off season for underpaying him in real money relative to his cap.



LTIR isn't free cap.

Id argue that 8M LTI for 6 years is more of a competitive disadvantage than his buyout dead cap.

I think a lot of people understand this (LTIR basics).

And, I was not arguing in favor of placing him on LTIR or any particular solution for that matter.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[PlayOn]

Even if somehow you were able to buyout his contract because this time the shoulder didn’t need surgery and healed quicker or whatever the case may be, this is a Dorion/Melnyk way to do business. Norris hasn’t played himself into a buyout, he had a slow year coming back from major surgery - everyone, including the players, would know they did it cause of his health. The amount you save is not worth the loss of goodwill it would create in the locker room.

They have nothing to do from here but help him recover and hope he can get past it. Yeah this is a business but Ottawa of all places can’t be treating their players like this.