Player Discussion Josh Norris (C) 6’-1” - Part 3

[Sens of Anarchy]

It sounded more like wishful thinking than any kind of scoop.

x.com

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Sounded like a reasonable guess by looking at the video. It has the bonus of being a possibly better outcome than reinjuring his shoulder.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Getting injured sucks and I hope the guy is alright but if it is anything other than the shoulder that has to be considered a positive.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

If it was his shoulder and that did it in again, it was probably only a matter of time.

The last helmet video with him, he had a ton of that tape on him and it really drew my attention for some reason. Then next game he's done.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

User MySens usually has the inside story on Norris' health situation.

 

[Sting]

I think if it is the shoulder, there's a good chance he's out until mid next year (if he returns at all) so you're probably looking at running Stu-Pinto-Greig long term.

Assuming Tarasenko is gone, we now have two big holes in the top 6 with seemingly nobody coming since we have a terrible prospect pool.

Tkachuk-Stu-Giroux
? - Pinto - Batherson
Joseph-Greig-?
Kelly-Kastelic-Crookshank

Yeah, the depth of this team is about to get tested. Going to need two good UFA signings or two key trades if we have any hope of playoff contention next year.

 

[Xspyrit]

The posters that were beating a dead horse about ASSET MANAGEMENT... it was for these type of reasons.

Stutzle (22)
Tkachuk (24)
Batherson (25)
Pinto (23)
Greig (21)
Joseph (27)
Giroux (36)

Sanderson (21)
Chabot (27)
Zub (28)

Let's be real guys, we need a significant retool. At least we won't need to go earth scorched this time. Keep all the guys above (Giroux as the Claudefather) and rebuild the rest of the lineup the right way this time. Keep one of Brannstrom/JBD, guessing it will be the RHD

If/when Norris come back it'll be a bonus, the problem is his cap hit, how do we get back a 7.95 AAV cap in the lineup?

Mann once told a friend of mine that Dorion was an idiot. While he was still working for him. So how much is Mann and how much is Dorion. I dono

GMs always have the last word on draft picks but apparently they don't bother outside of the first round, but in the first round, they make the calls.

So yeah, hard to not believe that story as he pretty much ruined our NHL experience for years.

We should sue him

 

[DrEasy]

The posters that were beating a dead horse about ASSET MANAGEMENT... it was for these type of reasons.

Stutzle (22)
Tkachuk (24)
Batherson (25)
Pinto (23)
Greig (21)
Joseph (27)
Giroux (36)

Sanderson (21)
Chabot (27)
Zub (28)

Let's be real guys, we need a significant retool. At least we won't need to go earth scorched this time. Keep all the guys above (Giroux as the Claudefather) and rebuild the rest of the lineup the right way this time. Keep one of Brannstrom/JBD, guessing it will be the RHD

If/when Norris come back it'll be a bonus, the problem is his cap hit, how do we get back a 7.95 AAV cap in the lineup?



GMs always have the last word on draft picks but apparently they don't bother outside of the first round, but in the first round, they make the calls.

So yeah, hard to not believe that story as he pretty much ruined our NHL experience for years.

We should sue him

Easy, he only plays when we're in the playoffs.

But seriously, this could be a problem, and an incentive for the front office not to spend too much next season. I would understand them too, we still don't know if this roster is capable of playing playoff-worthy hockey.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

The hardest part is the unknown. Sure puts a wrench in the plans not knowing if/when he'll play again, and actually ever stay long term.

 

[bert]

I cant imagine he ever comes back from this. He's done, can they put him on permanent LTIR? Thank god the sens have Pinto and Greig.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

I cant imagine he ever comes back from this. He's done, can they put him on permanent LTIR? Thank god the sens have Pinto and Greig.

I really doubt he's retiring dude.

 

[DrEasy]

I cant imagine he ever comes back from this. He's done, can they put him on permanent LTIR? Thank god the sens have Pinto and Greig.

I feel horrible for him, but if this is it for Norris, this could be a slightly positive thing for the team, no? I don't think Norris was giving us $8M/yr worth of value.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[JD1]

The posters that were beating a dead horse about ASSET MANAGEMENT... it was for these type of reasons.

Stutzle (22)
Tkachuk (24)
Batherson (25)
Pinto (23)
Greig (21)
Joseph (27)
Giroux (36)

Sanderson (21)
Chabot (27)
Zub (28)

Let's be real guys, we need a significant retool. At least we won't need to go earth scorched this time. Keep all the guys above (Giroux as the Claudefather) and rebuild the rest of the lineup the right way this time. Keep one of Brannstrom/JBD, guessing it will be the RHD

If/when Norris come back it'll be a bonus, the problem is his cap hit, how do we get back a 7.95 AAV cap in the lineup?



GMs always have the last word on draft picks but apparently they don't bother outside of the first round, but in the first round, they make the calls.

So yeah, hard to not believe that story as he pretty much ruined our NHL experience for years.

We should sue him

The guys you listed would all be considered core or maybe inner core + outer core.

There's also 10 guys listed. The other roster positions would be largely filler.

Today on the drive they were talking to Jacques. He referenced compete level and structure as the things needing improvement

It strikes me from our spot in the standings and listening to Jacques that the brass feels there's a problem with the core. I just doubt he was referring to the compete level of the bottom 6 and bottom pair as being the problem

 

[StoicSensFan]

 

[mysens]

User MySens usually has the inside story on Norris' health situation.

That was last summer when he lived a street over for a year. He moved out, and for information his roommate when they moved in the previous summer was Formentan. I have no updates this time. Sorry

 

[Adrianopolous]

This guy will destroy our franchise

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

I feel horrible for him, but if this is it for Norris, this could be a slightly positive thing for the team, no? I don't think Norris was giving us $8M/yr worth of value.

A buyout this offseason would have been strategically better than LTIRetirement. This is assuming no one would have taken him in a trade.

A buyout averages about 1M a season in dead cap for 12 seasons. LTIR isn't the same as free cap space and is strategically more difficult at 8M per than just eating the dead cap.

Norris is under 26 and his contract was back loaded, so his buyout cap would be very low. If he is not medically cleared, they cannot buy him out.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Has the team officially said what/where the injury is?

It definitely looks like the shoulder, but it's hard to know for sure.

 

[bert]

A buyout this offseason would have been strategically better than LTIRetirement. This is assuming no one would have taken him in a trade.

A buyout averages about 1M a season in dead cap for 12 seasons. LTIR isn't the same as free cap space and is strategically more difficult at 8M per than just eating the dead cap.

Norris is under 26 and his contract was back loaded, so his buyout cap would be very low. If he is not medically cleared, they cannot buy him out.

How exactly?! LTIRetirement means he doesn't count against the cap.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

How exactly?! LTIRetirement means he doesn't count against the cap.

LTIR doesn't make a cap hit not count against the cap. It is a formula that raises the cap ceiling of a team to account for the injured player. It doesn't always result in the team getting back the entire cap hit in function, and there are a lot of downsides like not being able to bank cap space to the trade deadline, or not being able to use LTIR space on performance bonuses, which results in them rolling over to the next year. Puckpedia and Capfriendly outline this in a much greater and clearer detail than I can.

Here is what the buyout of Norris would look like.

SEASON	INITIAL BASE SALARY	INITIAL CAP HIT	SIGNING BONUS	BUYOUT COST	POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS	SAVINGS	CAP HIT ( OTT)
2024-25	$9,500,000	$7,950,000	$0	$1,447,222	$1,447,222	$8,052,778	-$102,778
2025-26	$9,500,000	$7,950,000	$0	$1,447,222	$1,447,222	$8,052,778	-$102,778
2026-27	$9,500,000	$7,950,000	$0	$1,447,222	$1,447,222	$8,052,778	-$102,778
2027-28	$8,750,000	$7,950,000	$0	$1,447,222	$1,447,222	$7,302,778	$647,222
2028-29	$7,850,000	$7,950,000	$0	$1,447,222	$1,447,222	$6,402,778	$1,547,222
2029-30	$7,000,000	$7,950,000	$0	$1,447,222	$1,447,222	$5,552,778	$2,397,222
2030-31	$0	$0	$0	$1,447,222	$1,447,222	-$1,447,222	$1,447,222
2031-32	$0	$0	$0	$1,447,222	$1,447,222	-$1,447,222	$1,447,222
2032-33	$0	$0	$0	$1,447,222	$1,447,222	-$1,447,222	$1,447,222
2033-34	$0	$0	$0	$1,447,222	$1,447,222	-$1,447,222	$1,447,222
2034-35	$0	$0	$0	$1,447,222	$1,447,222	-$1,447,222	$1,447,222
2035-36	$0	$0	$0	$1,447,222	$1,447,222	-$1,447,222	$1,447,222
TOTAL	$52,100,000	$47,700,000	$0	$17,366,667	$17,366,667	$34,733,333	$12,966,664

He would only be owed roughly 340k in cap over the first four seasons, so a negligible amount. In effect, it's really an 8 year buyout starting in 2028 where 7 years will be at 1.45M. While all dead cap does add up, when you consider that the cap ceiling could be in or close to the 100M+ range, that is a very small amount to get out of an 8M cap hit. It's also easier to plan around 1.45M in dead cap from 2028-2036 than it would be to have to keep them team in LTI from 2024 to 2030.

It's why teams have paid to dump contracts that are on their LTIR, so that they can come off of LTI. Montreal took the Dadonov contract to get out of the Weber contract, even know Weber was LTIRetired and not owed any real money (1M per season, partially covered by insurance). Vegas took Weber because they were already in LTI. 1 LTIR contract VS multiple ones doesn't make a difference, but teams want to try and avoid going into LTI at all costs.

The thing about Norris getting hurt now is that his buyout next summer is nowhere near as advantageous because he will be 26. Players 26 and over cost twice as much to buyout. If there was no market for him in a trade, and if the Sens were even thinking about buying him out, the timing of the injury night have saved him from losing something like 34 million dollars. It is why Cowen contested his buyout from the Leafs.

 

[harrisb]

Awful situation for Norris.

If the Norris injury isn’t career ending his contract can be problematic for the sens but not necessarily buyout worthy. Personally I would not be buying him out.

Couple of scenarios:
1) If he needs another surgery ensure he is on LTIR for the entire next season so to leverage the cap benefits. If he fully recovers after that deal with the cap issue then
2) If it is career ending (very much praying it is not for Norris himself more than the team) then he is LTIR in Robidas Island style.

With a new owner who seems willing to invest in payroll LTIR isn’t the issue it was. If you are a cap team it is a benefit, it would have hurt us more under the previous regime.

There is a potential upside here for the team. If Norris goes LTIR it opens a ton of cap space for us right now. Extends the lists of teams who could consume a Tarasenko, Chych, etc contract. Why? We could take a one year cap dump back to maximize our returns. These are things which were foreign to us sens fans for many years but that door is open now.

Helps that we are tight against the cap right now…LTIR contracts are a benefit if leveraged correctly. Leafs, Tampa, Vegas, Colorado, Canucks are all leveraging LTIR contracts heavily and are some of the best teams in the league.

Dead cap is what hurts a team and Dorian stacked up a lot of it. Murray, Ryan and MDZ all come off the books after this season which frees up 4M by itself. Key is the team would need to spend that 4M over the summer to make sure they’re right up against the cap again.

4M of dead cap recovered next year, 5M cap increase, likely 10M or more in deals going out at TDL will leave 19-20M or possibly more available. Sounds like a lot but will Go fast with needing two top 6 forwards, a top 4 RD, pinto extension and a goalie. If Norris is on LTIR for the season that’s 28M and suddenly you have 5.5-6M average for 5 players. That’s well above replacement level

 

[bicboi64]

we'll be fine. If its a shoulder injury that keeps him out till next year's mid season, we can just trade him to Tampa when Stamkos leaves or Vegas as both teams will happily LTIR loophole their way through the playoffs

(In all seriousness, I hope Norris heals up asap)

 

[mysens]

Any news yet? Is there a press conference scheduled or something for this? Anxious for the outcome, I hope they do not come out with something vague as UB injury.

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

Coming in Hot suggesting it may be a broken collar bone,

That’s what I was thinking when I saw it. 6 weeks out or so if true, but that’s way better than a bad shoulder injury.

 

[Micklebot]

That’s what I was thinking when I saw it. 6 weeks out or so if true, but that’s way better than a bad shoulder injury.

The one thing I worry about is that Jacques said they were getting MRIs for Chabot, Sanderson and Norris which suggests soft tissue concerns. Hopefully he just didn't want to list off the individual procedures for each, and just said MRI knowing that's what Chabot or Sanderson needed...