Johnny Gaudreau Decline?

[blankall]

So you value Joe Thornton as that of a PPG C? Or is what has happened recently more relevant?

You don't think that it's more likely that a 40 year old player is declining than Gaudreau is? This is the worst possible example you could have chosen and just proves my point. Unlike with a 40 year old player, there's nothing to indicate Gaudreau is already on the decline. In fact Gaudreau has been playing at above a ppg since being given good linemates again.

 

[JayE]

He's still a very dangerous player with the right support. You can't expect him to be the guy carrying your team and he needs to be deployed correctly with the right players, but he's still one of the more dangerous players in the league with the puck on his stick and a bit of space. The next team that signs him (could be the Flames, but living in Calgary, I feel like the winds are blowing in the direction that he gets traded, especially as the Flames are going to have a bit of a time making the playoffs next year) might get a bit of a sweetheart deal because of his relatively poor production the last few years.

 

[AyyLmao]

I'm sure the backlash he got for this

has nothing to do with it

Gaudreau > McDavid


Anyways, the heart and soul of their team was neutered ever since they had that “team meeting”

So Tkachuk wasn’t a factor which I think lead to the demise of the flames and therefore IMO the teams production as a whole. They couldn’t play as big as they wanted and therefore I think Gaudreau played scared. Gaudreau is decent though... he allowed Monahan to cosplay as a #1 center when he really is a $6.35m #3.

 

[cesareborgia]

Johnny "Hockey" was never elite tbh. Average 2nd line guy.

 

[rielledup]

He’s not as good as his 99 point season, but he’s definitely not as bad as this either. He’s a 70 something point guy who’s stuck on a team that’s currently a dumpster fire. Besides an aging Gio, you can’t gather much info from the Flames play this year

Even if the 99 point year was a fluke he had 84 points the year before. No reason why he shouldn't be a point per game player.

 

[rielledup]

How is that not descriptive? It’s saying he should still be able to have 70-79 points in a full season. He’s been on a 67 point pace the last 2 years, and his career PPG puts him at 77. Saying he should be in the 70s most years doesn’t seem unreasonable to me.

The whole point of this thread was examining why he's declined so much the past two seasons after two consecutive seasons of 84 and 99 points. Using his career ppg which includes his last two seasons where he has regressed big time for some reason to claim he should only be a 70 point player is missing the whole point of this thread.

 

[JPeeper]

He's been the offensive catalyst for the Flames his entire career including this year. If Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk was a line all year he'd have had 70+ points, but alas he had to play with bums for a long time. He isn't Patrick Kane though (I say since he is also a shorter player, though Kane is a BEAST), he needs help for the team to succeed. He was good enough in College to carry a team to finals, but the NHL is a different animal. Monahan was a good center for him since Monahan was a good triggerman with a great shot, but the chemistry went dry, the rest of the NHL figured them out and they never adapted.

Even though I am 100% for tanking and rebuild the team, I'd prefer to keep Gaudreau and extend him, he's a special player. You put Wright with Gaudreau? Oof

 

[nbwingsfan]

You don't think that it's more likely that a 40 year old player is declining than Gaudreau is? This is the worst possible example you could have chosen and just proves my point. Unlike with a 40 year old player, there's nothing to indicate Gaudreau is already on the decline. In fact Gaudreau has been playing at above a ppg since being given good linemates again.

Theres nothing to indicate his decline except back to back declining seasons... Alright then.

Using career PPG for judging a player now makes absolutely no sense.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

4th best is ideal, you could get away with 3rd if you have 2 studs carrying the offense, 5-6th you're sitting pretty.


That would be scary good. Throw in Krejci and thats lethal

And not because Gaudreau doesn't have the talent but because he hasn't shown that he can perform when the competition gets stiff. Instead he quivers like a mouse and runs to his hole.
He would be dynamite providing secondary offense like in Boston.

Other teams I think he would excel in:

Tampa
Toronto
Winnipeg
Washington
Pittsburgh
Colorado

 

[Beyonder91]

A few things to add to the discussion:

1) His production has dropped quite significantly. From 1.13ppg (17-18 & 18-19) to 0.82ppg (19-20 & 20-21). That is a 27.4% drop in production. Very material.

2) Claude Giroux is the only recent example I can really think of where there was such a drastic drop in production over a couple years from a superstar player. He is a guy that also had hip and abdominal surgery after a couple mediocre seasons. After the offseason surgery (2016-17) he put up 58 points. Injuries and surgery make sense for his decline and then eventual recovery following the surgery.
Is it possible Gaudreau is having some injury issues as well? Does he still look as quick and dynamic?

3) The only other thing I can think is that he has mentally checked out of Calgary and doesn't have the same drive he did a couple seasons ago

 

[blankall]

Theres nothing to indicate his decline except back to back declining seasons... Alright then.

Using career PPG for judging a player now makes absolutely no sense.

The only reason he's under ppg this year is he had a 10 game stretch with fourth line linemates. He's been above ppg for quite a while now.

 

[ruaware41]

Very material.

Are you in audit

 

[blankall]

A few things to add to the discussion:

1) His production has dropped quite significantly. From 1.13ppg (17-18 & 18-19) to 0.82ppg (19-20 & 20-21). That is a 27.4% drop in production. Very material.

2) Claude Giroux is the only recent example I can really think of where there was such a drastic drop in production over a couple years from a superstar player. He is a guy that also had hip and abdominal surgery after a couple mediocre seasons. After the offseason surgery (2016-17) he put up 58 points. Injuries and surgery make sense for his decline and then eventual recovery following the surgery.
Is it possible Gaudreau is having some injury issues as well? Does he still look as quick and dynamic?

3) The only other thing I can think is that he has mentally checked out of Calgary and doesn't have the same drive he did a couple seasons ago

You don't think very hard. Giroux is the only recent example of a player to have a down season?

Once again the reason for Gaudreau's off season is simple. There was an adjustment to a new coach where he had awful linemates. He's now been over a ppg for quite a while.

 

[nbwingsfan]

The only reason he's under ppg this year is he had a 10 game stretch with fourth line linemates. He's been above ppg for quite a while now.

"The only reason hes under PPG is because he had some bad games".... Yeah, that's hockey.

Truly elite players produce regardless of who they're with.

 

[nbwingsfan]

You don't think very hard. Giroux is the only recent example of a player to have a down season?

Once again the reason for Gaudreau's off season is simple. There was an adjustment to a new coach where he had awful linemates. He's now been over a ppg for quite a while.

Why was he "down" last season as well then?

 

[Beyonder91]

You don't think very hard. Giroux is the only recent example of a player to have a down season?

Once again the reason for Gaudreau's off season is simple. There was an adjustment to a new coach where he had awful linemates. He's now been over a ppg for quite a while.

He has had back to back seasons of sharp decline. I posted the numbers. What are you confused with?

Please tell me another superstar player to have such drops. Also, when I say drops I mean to well below a point per game. All superstar players generally remain right around a point per game no matter what.

 

[Beyonder91]

Are you in audit

I'm in finance. That's just the first word that came to mind haha.

 

[treple13]

Gaudreau's numbers declined the last two seasons because his primary centre lost all his offensive ability.

No need to look into it more than that.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Theres nothing to indicate his decline except back to back declining seasons... Alright then.

Using career PPG for judging a player now makes absolutely no sense.

Gaudreau has 70 points in his last 81 games, and that's with having to go through a significant coaching and system change mid way through this year. His primary center has 44 points in that same stretch . . .

Now consider that he had only 4 points in the first 14 games under Sutter because he was played with Monahan and Ritchie and were asked to play dump and chase hockey. Surely, we should use that sample size the judge the type of player Gaudreau is today.

Once he gets out of Calgary he's going to start putting up huge numbers and I get to say I told you so again

 

[nbwingsfan]

Gaudreau has 70 points in his last 81 games, and that's with having to go through a significant coaching and system change mid way through this year. His primary center has 44 points in that same stretch . . .

Now consider that he had only 4 points in the first 14 games under Sutter because he was played with Monahan and Ritchie and were asked to play dump and chase hockey. Surely, we should use that sample size the judge the type of player Gaudreau is today.

Once he gets out of Calgary he's going to start putting up huge numbers and I get to say I told you so again

Told me what? You said he's going to put up "multiple" 100+ pt seasons and win some Art Ross trophies. I cant recall either of that happening...

 

[blankall]

He has had back to back seasons of sharp decline. I posted the numbers. What are you confused with?

Please tell me another superstar player to have such drops. Also, when I say drops I mean to well below a point per game. All superstar players generally remain right around a point per game no matter what.

Lol....like just this season? Taylor Hall, Patrik Laine, Vladmir Tarasenko, etc....This is just this season. The list of great players who had a period of playing at .8ppg and then returned to 1ppg is pretty long....in fact, it probably already includes Gaudreau, who is playing above a ppg.

Lol...I also don't know why you're singling out Claude Giroux? He's 33. He's doing alright for his age.

 

[Beyonder91]

Lol....like just this season? Taylor Hall, Patrik Laine, Vladmir Tarasenko, etc....This is just this season. The list of great players who had a period of playing at .8ppg and then returned to 1ppg is pretty long....in fact, it probably already includes Gaudreau, who is playing above a ppg.

Lol...I also don't know why you're singling out Claude Giroux? He's 33. He's doing alright for his age.

Taylor Hall has been injury plagued since his Hart season. I also ask in my post if perhaps Gaudreau has some injury issues.

Laine & Tarasenko have never been point-per-game players and likely never will be. They are all-star calibre in certain years but certainly not superstar players.

How am I singling out Giroux? I specifically mentioned it 4+ years ago when he was near Gaudreau age and his decline in that period was likely due to injury issues.

It really seems like you aren't even reading posts.

 

[blankall]

Taylor Hall has been injury plagued since his Hart season. I also ask in my post if perhaps Gaudreau has some injury issues.

Laine & Tarasenko have never been point-per-game players and likely never will be. They are all-star calibre in certain years but certainly not superstar players.

How am I singling out Giroux? I specifically mentioned it 4+ years ago when he was near Gaudreau age and his decline in that period was likely due to injury issues.

It really seems like you aren't even reading posts.

You're trying to push some lame argument that is totally unsupported by evidence. Is it possible that Gaudreau may never regain PPG form for a whole season..sure....would he be the first ever ppg player to have two .8 ppg seasons and then play better again, absolutely not. As stated many times, he's been playing above a ppg pace for some time now.

 

[Beyonder91]

You're trying to push some lame argument that is totally unsupported by evidence. Is it possible that Gaudreau may never regain PPG form for a whole season..sure....would he be the first ever ppg player to have two .8 ppg seasons and then play better again, absolutely not. As stated many times, he's been playing above a ppg pace for some time now.

The evidence is plain as day. His production has sharply declined. There is no debating that point.
You are just choosing to ignore it or make excuses.

 

[Lunatik]

You don't think very hard. Giroux is the only recent example of a player to have a down season?

Once again the reason for Gaudreau's off season is simple. There was an adjustment to a new coach where he had awful linemates. He's now been over a ppg for quite a while.

In addition his most common center in Monahan has needed hip surgery since about 3 weeks into the season.