Johnny Gaudreau Decline?

[CatchyTune]

He was a 65 point player as a rookie. Rookies aren't expected to be offense carriers.

Since then?

Gaudreau has 422 points in his last 435 games while playing with a ""center"" that almost no one on HFBoards wouldn trade anything of value for.

View attachment 432848

That, by the way, is an 80 point pace per 82 games.

So which of these players is not an offense carrier for his team? I mean, sure, Draisaitl wouldn't be nearly as productive without McDavid all those years, so I guess him.

Career averages dont dictate current ability. He has paced for mid-60 point totals the last 2 years. He has had some great years, and some not so great years.

 

[Lunatik]

Had posted this in the Polls section but I think discussion is more relevant here.

How are we viewing Johnny Gaudreau as a player now?

This is a guy that hit 99 points a few years ago and was a Hart trophy contender.

Matthew Tkachuk outscored him last year.
Elias Lindholm is outscoring him this year.

What's the problem?

Serious discussion only because I truly do believe he is a super skilled player.

Perhaps you are underrating Tkachuk and Lindholm?

Gaudreau had his struggles last season, but everyone has an off year, this year he has played well but has spent most of this year with a centerman in Monahan who can barely shoot a puck due to injury, since moving to the line with Tkachuk and Lindholm, his production has increased exponentially.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Talking about right now. Paced for 68 last year and playing to a 66 point pace over 82 this year.

Right now? He's got 15 points in his last 12 games since being liberated from Monahan.

And outside of a 10 game stretch right after the hiring of Sutter (when he was asked to play dump and chase hockey with Monahan and Ritchie) he's been a point per game player this year. He also finished last season at a point per game over the last 28 games

 

[11Messier]

He was a 65 point player as a rookie. Rookies aren't expected to be offense carriers.

Since then?

Gaudreau has 422 points in his last 435 games while playing with a ""center"" that almost no one on HFBoards wouldn trade anything of value for.

View attachment 432848

That, by the way, is an 80 point pace per 82 games.

So which of these players is not an offense carrier for his team? I mean, sure, Draisaitl wouldn't be nearly as productive without McDavid all those years, so I guess him.

I think you are the one reading too much into it. No one is saying Gaudreau is bad. In fact, I would love to have him on the Oilers (what better compliment can I give than that). All I am saying, he is doing (most likely not on purpose) everything in his power to give the flames the least return as possible. I am sure his name was floating around at this trade deadline but the return did not equal potential value so the flames did the right thing by not accepting it and gambling on his value increasing next year. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. But if he goes on a tear, do you trade him or throw big money at him?

 

[CatchyTune]

Right now? He's got 15 points in his last 12 games since being liberated from Monahan.

And outside of a 10 game stretch right after the hiring of Sutter (when he was asked to play dump and chase hockey with Monahan and Ritchie) he's been a point per game player this year. He also finished last season at a point per game over the last 28 games

if we focus on positive sample sizes of course he is going to look better than he is. this is quite the definition of "cherry picking" stats.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

He needs to go somewhere where he's the top 4-6 forward. If he's in your top 3 forwards you are in deep doo doo.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Really? Name a few players that said they would like to play for another team and the end result was all fine and dandy with management and teammates. Should be easy to name a few since it's pretty normal. I don't recall any instance that turned out great.

Here's something Milan Lucic said while a member of the Edmonton Oilers:

“I remember doing an interview back in ’07 before the [Memorial] Cup and I said it would always be a dream of mine to someday play for the Canucks, and you still have that kid inside of you, you still have that dream of playing for your hometown team.
“And like I said, you never know what the future has in store.”

Then there's Wayne Gretzky, who despite spending a lifetime dreaming of the Red Wings, never actually played for the Red Wings:



Or maybe look at Paul Coffey actively wanting a trade out of Edmonton to the Maple Leafs:

“Garry Lariviere called me up. He was an assistant coach [for the Maple Leafs] and my onetime defence partner in Edmonton. [The late John] Brophy was the coach, and they talked about it. Garry said to me, ‘If the Leafs can swing something, would you come?’ I said, ‘I’ll be there in five minutes,'” Coffey recalled on-air (listen below).
“That never happened. They obviously couldn’t put the players together Edmonton wanted.”

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

He would be ideal in Boston

Bergeron
Pasta
Marchand
Gaudreau
Hall

 

[blankall]

He needs to go somewhere where he's the top 4-6 forward. If he's in your top 3 forwards you are in deep doo doo.

He's 11th in scoring in the league over the last 5 years....deep do do? What Gaudreau needs is a team with another secondary scoring threat to take pressure off him and stop the double teaming. He's great as even your #1 forward, if you have the depth to give him space.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Did you see the playoffs, where he was the flames best player in their last 3 games vs Dallas?

Or this?

really? an isolated incident 6 years ago and a 3-game sample size in a bubble tournament? well I'm convinced lol
he was brutal in 2017 and even worse in 2019

 

[11Messier]

Here's something Milan Lucic said while a member of the Edmonton Oilers:


Then there's Wayne Gretzky, who despite spending a lifetime dreaming of the Red Wings, never actually played for the Red Wings:



Or maybe look at Paul Coffey actively wanting a trade out of Edmonton to the Maple Leafs:

I agree many players say they want or wanted to play for other teams. This is either after the fact like Gretzky or when you want to be traded like Coffey. You guys are saying that its okay to say you would love to play for another team while you're actually playing on a team and then expect life to go on as normal with your GM and teammates being okay with it. That is what I'm looking examples for.

You guys seem to think that players naming specific teams doesn't handcuff the GM and lower their value in a trade and I say it does.

 

[blankall]

if we focus on positive sample sizes of course he is going to look better than he is. this is quite the definition of "cherry picking" stats.

His entire career is a sample size? Perhaps someone with more stats knowledge than me can weigh in on this, but I using every data point is the one measurement that is not in fact a sample. This would be a measurement of "total population" and not a sample at all.

You've accused someone else of doing exactly what you were doing.

 

[jetsforever]

Seems like a lot of top players have hit slumps in recent times

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

You guys seem to think that players naming specific teams doesn't handcuff the GM and lower their value in a trade and I say it does.

Gaudreau didn't name a specific team, though. He didn't even name a desire to be traded.

He was asked if it would be nice to play for his hometown team someday, and he said yeah. Someday. Someday could be a decade from now, when he's 36 years old.

In that same radio quote where he said it'd be sweet to play for the flyers someday, the guy praised Calgary but that always gets left out of the Oilers fan propaganda machine:

"Every morning you wake up, you look out your window and you see the mountains," he said. "I go to Starbucks every morning and before I leave the Starbucks I'm taking three, four, five pictures and little kids [are] running up to me. It's really cool there, they're really passionate about their hockey … it makes it a lot of fun playing over there."

When you pull quotes out of context to make an uproar, you're just stirring the pot. The guy has said nothing indicating he wants to be traded, or that he insists on being traded to Philly, or even that he's unhappy in Calgary, or even that he's not interested in re-signing when his current contract is up.

 

[11Messier]

Gaudreau didn't name a specific team, though. He didn't even name a desire to be traded.

He was asked if it would be nice to play for his hometown team someday, and he said yeah. Someday. Someday could be a decade from now, when he's 36 years old.

In that same radio quote where he said it'd be sweet to play for the flyers someday, the guy praised Calgary but that always gets left out of the Oilers fan propaganda machine:



When you pull quotes out of context to make an uproar, you're just stirring the pot. The guy has said nothing indicating he wants to be traded, or that he insists on being traded to Philly, or even that he's unhappy in Calgary, or even that he's not interested in re-signing when his current contract is up.

Oilers propaganda machine, ha ha. Not sure why you keep bringing up the Oilers. Every person posting here has a team they cheer for and I do not speak on the behalf of other Oilers fans. I am expressing my own objective opinion. You feel Gaudreau's value is high and I feel it's not as high as you think it is. If things remain the same next year, I wouldn't be surprised if you only get a 3rd round pick as rental for him, maybe a 2nd if a GM is desperate. Only time will tell.

 

[CatchyTune]

His entire career is a sample size? Perhaps someone with more stats knowledge than me can weigh in on this, but I using every data point is the one measurement that is not in fact a sample. This would be a measurement of "total population" and not a sample at all.

You've accused someone else of doing exactly what you were doing.

i was refering to the "last 15 games without Monahan after hiring Sutter wearing blue socks after eating french toast for breakfast" cherry picking.

also having to dig back 3-4+ years ago to when he was elite proves the point of this thread.

 

[CatchyTune]

He needs to go somewhere where he's the top 4-6 forward. If he's in your top 3 forwards you are in deep doo doo.

4th best is ideal, you could get away with 3rd if you have 2 studs carrying the offense, 5-6th you're sitting pretty.

He would be ideal in Boston

Bergeron
Pasta
Marchand
Gaudreau
Hall

That would be scary good. Throw in Krejci and thats lethal

 

[93LEAFS]

His entire career is a sample size? Perhaps someone with more stats knowledge than me can weigh in on this, but I using every data point is the one measurement that is not in fact a sample. This would be a measurement of "total population" and not a sample at all.

You've accused someone else of doing exactly what you were doing.

Anyone with knowledge about statistics regarding NHL players knows that the most recent season is the most important data, and the further back you go the less value it has. Someone's career stats may not provide an accurate representation of what they are now. An extreme example of this is Joe Thornton who is a "career PPG" player (is .03 behind Gaudreau's current career ppg), but his career ppg average is nowhere close to representative of what he currently is.

Gaudreau hasn't been a PPG player the past 2 years playing at an.82 ppg pace, and anything that happened prior to 3 years or so ago is essentially useless in determining the current value of an NHL player.

 

[blankall]

Anyone with knowledge about statistics regarding NHL players knows that the most recent season is the most important data, and the further back you go the less value it has. Someone's career stats may not provide an accurate representation of what they are now. An extreme example of this is Joe Thornton who is a "career PPG" player (is .03 behind Gaudreau's current career ppg), but his career ppg average is nowhere close to representative of what he currently is.

Gaudreau hasn't been a PPG player the past 2 years playing at an.82 ppg pace, and anything that happened prior to 3 years or so ago is essentially useless in determining the current value of an NHL player.

So this shortened bizarro season is more representative of a player's ability than their career. There's nothing odd about this season. No player in the nhl has ever bounced back? Lol statistics....

 

[Iggys Dome]

He looks way better than he did last year. Dude is a gem and has been the driving force of the Flames offense since 2015 as a 5'7 160lb winger.

 

[HarrySPlinkett]

He’s the best offensive player the Flames have had since Iggy.

but he’s a 160 lb winger.

he has no help. There is no other Calgary Flame who would be a first line player on a contending team at his natural position. I love me some Elias Lindholm, but if he’s a first line player on a championship team, it’s as a wing.

The dude remains an elite offensive talent, and Calgary would be wise to give him someone to work with instead of asking him to do something really unreasonable.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Gaudreau hasn't been a PPG player the past 2 years playing at an.82 ppg pace, and anything that happened prior to 3 years or so ago is essentially useless in determining the current value of an NHL player.

Essentially useless huh. So I imagine his agent won't bring up his two top 10 scoring finishes, his Calder nomination, or finishing 4th in Hart trophy voting just two seasons ago in his contract negotiations. Or that he's 10th in even strength scoring since entering the league. Those facts apparently have absolutely no bearing on his value.

Sure the most recent seasons are the most relevant, doesn't mean at all the rest of a player's body of work is completely discounted. Especially when it comes to one of the league's premier point producers.

 

[nbwingsfan]

His entire career is a sample size? Perhaps someone with more stats knowledge than me can weigh in on this, but I using every data point is the one measurement that is not in fact a sample. This would be a measurement of "total population" and not a sample at all.

You've accused someone else of doing exactly what you were doing.

So you value Joe Thornton as that of a PPG C? Or is what has happened recently more relevant?

 

[Dack]

On the last page I've learned that he's worth a 3rd as a rental (which is less than Taylor Hall got in a season where everything went wrong for him or Bennett got while playing 4LW) and that ideally a guy who's worst seasons are in the high 60s in points should be the 4th best forward on your team lmfao.


How many teams would Gaudreau be the 4th best or worse forward on right now?

Colorado (and I'd argue he's better than Landeskog just not a better fit)
Pittsburgh
Toronto
Tampa Bay
Winnipeg
Philly?
Boston

Honestly I don't even believe a few of these would be true if he played in the same situation as the players who people think are better than him. People have to realize that the 65 point pace he's played at the last 2 years isn't solely on him. Nothing is working in Calgary. I expect his production to skyrocket in a better situation. Even this season his production isn't really accurately describing his play. He's a playmaker who has 6 secondary assists on the season, that's going to make the numbers look a lot worse than they are.

I'm sure in a years time after, he's traded we'll have a thread similar to the one Bennett has right now that goes something like "Oh my god he's scoring at a 90 point pace, why didn't he do this the last 2 years in Calgary?"
"Why did the Flames not bring in better players to play with him?"
"Why is he doing better in the playoffs in X?"

 

[Regal]

4th best is ideal, you could get away with 3rd if you have 2 studs carrying the offense, 5-6th you're sitting pretty.


That would be scary good. Throw in Krejci and thats lethal

Well yea, considering no team has 4 clearly better forwards and definitely no team has a 5th best forward who's close.