Value of: John Gibson at the draft

[Zegs2sendhelp]

As an Oiler fan I would love to see Gibson here! And yes they would be perfectly justified in asking for our 1st rounder and a good prospect in return! The Ducks though would have a hard time prying away the Oilers highly prized top prospects of Broberg, Holloway and Bourgault so that’s the fly in the oatmeal !

Gibson + Steel
for
1st(22 or 23 dont matter to me) + Holloway / bourgault + Koskinen/Smith + Kassian + 2024 2nd

I think assuming toronto gets knocked out in round 1 again.... toronto prob doing a massive change in off season

Nylander + Mrazek
for
Gibson
maybe adds to even out

 

[Eggtimer]

He was a very elite goalie but there should be some concern about his numbers and play the past 2/3 years.
Stolarz has put up better numbers on the same team. His elite numbers have tailed off and seems to, e,on the decline? Maybe a change of scenery turns things around but I’m not sure Id gamble on that. I’m sure a GM will. Add the Devils to the list of teams needing a goalie before next year.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Gibson + Steel
for
1st(22 or 23 dont matter to me) + Holloway / bourgault + Koskinen/Smith + Kassian + 2024 2nd

I think assuming toronto gets knocked out in round 1 again.... toronto prob doing a massive change in off season

Nylander + Mrazek
for
Gibson
maybe adds to even out

I don't think it matters with Toronto.

Like I said even if some Disney level shit happened where Marazek suddenly got hot and lead the Leafs to a cup he can't be brought back.

There is quite literally nothing Marazek can do to be brought back he's been that bad.

Not to mention Campbell is a UFA so regardless Toronto will be in the goalie market

the onl question is will the core be brought back?

I think that depends, if the win a round? probably, if they win 2? I'd say yes, if they don't win a round? Ithen that depends on if Dubas and Keefe are ack, because if they don't win a round Dubas probably isn't back

 

[McDoused]

I never understood this. Do American players really hate Canada that much that they would rather continue to play on a terrible team going through a rebuild than play for a playoff team in Toronto or Edmonton?

Doesnt exactly scream "he wants to win".

 

[96]

to Leafs for 22 1st + Robertson + Holl/Kerfoot

 

[AddyTheWrath]

Goalies don’t fetch that much value sorry, especially ones with the numbers Gibson has posted recently (.904, .903, .904 in the past 3 seasons) along with his cap hit.

If he is only willing to go to a few teams that will drop down the acquisition cost as well.

 

[Djp]

The Ducks are in a full on rebuild, that was made very clear this season when Manson, Rakell and Lindholm were traded at or near the deadline.

You have to wonder how John Gibson feels about that, is he OK going through a rebuild? and if he isn't and he does want to move on what could he get at the draft?

the market for goaltending going into the summer does seem rather limited

it's Edmonton, Toronto, Probably Buffalo /but I doubt he'd go there, maybe Vergas because Vegas is always in on everything.

But realistically it would appear to be Toronto, Edmonton and Buffalo.

buffalo is not getting an chor thst is Gibson when they have UPL, and need to sign Portillo and Levi from college. If he was 2 yrs left they might have interest. Not with 5+ yrs.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Gonna be really interesting to follow what happens to Gibson.

Feels like the Ducks might have missed the best window of opportunity to trade him last year. We know they were close to moving him to Carolina... Feel like they might have been better off in hindsight getting that deal done, whatever it was.

But now, Gibson is in his 3rd straight year of posting sub .905 sv% numbers and lately has been simply dreadful for the Ducks... I dont think they would get much value for him right now. They might be better off holding onto him and hoping his numbers rebound, but then if they dont rebound he quickly enters cap dump territory.

 

[SlightlyStoned]

I never understood this. Do American players really hate Canada that much that they would rather continue to play on a terrible team going through a rebuild than play for a playoff team in Toronto or Edmonton?

Doesnt exactly scream "he wants to win".

If Gibson wants to leave and go to competitive team, he probably cant afford to rule out Edmonton and Toronto. Beggars cant be choosers, there ain't that many teams that can compete and are ready to pay enough to Ducks.

 

[McHelpus]

Lol how so?

Leafs and Oilers would overpay for him more than any other team in the league.

 

[96]

Leafs and Oilers would overpay for him more than any other team in the league.

The last time the Leafs overpaid for a goalie in trade was for Vesa Toskala in 2007.

Dubas is the Leafs fifth GM since then...

 

[wraparound]

I wonder if Minnesota would be a dark horse for moving on him. they have MAF through the end of the season, then Talbot signed for another year beyond that.

they’re already looking to offload Fiala, who would fill a need for the Ducks perfectly, so he could be part of that deal in addition to Talbot for cap reasons plus a first? two 2nds? prospect?

if my math is right, the total cap hits of all players signed through next season (minus Talbot & Fiala, plus Gibson & the increased buyout hit from Suter & Parise) comes to ~$68.73m, giving them ample space to sign a backup goalie & extend Dewar + Middleton, if they indeed do that.

that would give Minnesota who is firmly in their window a solid goalie for 6 more years & the Ducks can run with Talbot/Stolarz to let Dostál marinate in the minors for one more season, plus they get an upgrade over Milano for Zegras’ wing.

 

[McHelpus]

The last time the Leafs overpaid for a goalie in trade was for Vesa Toskala in 2007.

Dubas is the Leafs fifth GM since then...

I remember Toskala in 06 lol what did they give up for him??

 

[GhostfaceWu]

3 years of shit numbers for Gibson though. Hes been trending in the wrong direction for more than long enough to decrease his value.

 

[96]

I remember Toskala in 06 lol what did they give up for him??

lol it ended up being Logan Couture + Craig Smith...

 

[bsu]

Leafs and Oilers would overpay for him more than any other team in the league.

Sure bud according to you. I think NJD will be very interested.

 

[StreetHawk]

I wonder if Minnesota would be a dark horse for moving on him. they have MAF through the end of the season, then Talbot signed for another year beyond that.

they’re already looking to offload Fiala, who would fill a need for the Ducks perfectly, so he could be part of that deal in addition to Talbot for cap reasons plus a first? two 2nds? prospect?

if my math is right, the total cap hits of all players signed through next season (minus Talbot & Fiala, plus Gibson & the increased buyout hit from Suter & Parise) comes to ~$68.73m, giving them ample space to sign a backup goalie & extend Dewar + Middleton, if they indeed do that.

that would give Minnesota who is firmly in their window a solid goalie for 6 more years & the Ducks can run with Talbot/Stolarz to let Dostál marinate in the minors for one more season, plus they get an upgrade over Milano for Zegras’ wing.

Wild have 16 skaters coming in at $59 mill per cap friendly. Add $12 mill for the dead cap puts them at $71 mill. They need 7 skaters. If you are adding in Gibson and taking out Talbot that is another $3 mill. So that puts them at $74 mill with 7 skaters to fill the 23 man roster.

 

[lwvs84]

Question for Anaheim is whether they can continue their string of going from Giguere to Hiller to Andersen to Gibson. Is the next goalie right around the corner for them?

If not there may not be a major reason to move him unless he makes that request.

Forgot Bryz also.

Ya the Ducks have basically had a string of legit #1 goalies for the last 20 years. And they have all come from different sources. Giggy was traded for, Bryz, Gibson, and Andersen were drafted by the Ducks, and Hiller was a Euro UFA.

Everyone forgets Hebert. I think he was a very underrated goalie. First Ducks goalie to make an all star game if I remember right?

 

[KyleJRM]

Stolarz has much better numbers on the same team.

Maybe Gibson will be better on a new team, but that's a pretty big gamble at 6.4 mil for 5 more years.

Yeah, that's the thing.

Is it plausible that Gibson would go back to the elite performance level of three years ago on a better team? Absolutely.


Should a team trading for him pay full price as if it were a 100% certainty? Absolutely not

 

[Legion34]

I never understood this. Do American players really hate Canada that much that they would rather continue to play on a terrible team going through a rebuild than play for a playoff team in Toronto or Edmonton?

Doesnt exactly scream "he wants to win".

It’s a few things.

1.) taxes
2.) media
3.) the Canada Covid rules. The border was shut down not too long ago and the leafs played with no crowd for like a month. That’s why more teams were unwilling this year.

Toronto has very rarely lost a us player to ufa. They all re signed or asked to be signed. It’s very rare for Toronto to lose a ufa. Hyman left wanted way too much and was mad that the leafs didn’t offer him

Manson said no but Manson is a Canadian as much as American. His family lives in sask and he grew up here. He said no. With a new family I totally get it.

The American taxes change things now with the increases. Heck dadabov had Anaheim on his NTC because of taxes.

People forget that John Gibson voluntarily came and played in Canada as a teen and he seems to want to win. If he is married to an American that might make it tougher. If Covid rules start again there is no chance.

But Gibson had no problem with Canada as a kid and seems to really want to win. Toronto seems to be a goalie away. So who knows

 

[All Mighty]

The general framework for what a Gibson trade should look like is:

1st + High End Prospect + As many short term cap dumps as you want

Maybe add a 2nd or lower tier prospect depending on the quality of the main prospect and cap dumps.

 

[John Pedro]

Sure bud according to you. I think NJD will be very interested.

hope not

huge caphit for mediocre numbers, goalies doesn't age well either

 

[SherVaughn30]

3 years of shit numbers for Gibson though. Hes been trending in the wrong direction for more than long enough to decrease his value.

If Devin Dubnyk could come back from the dead many years ago, then I have no doubt Gibson could have a bounce back next season with another team. My prediction, there will be a Caps/Ducks draft trade.

 

[Sean Garrity]

It’s a few things.

1.) taxes
2.) media
3.) the Canada Covid rules. The border was shut down not too long ago and the leafs played with no crowd for like a month. That’s why more teams were unwilling this year.

Toronto has very rarely lost a us player to ufa. They all re signed or asked to be signed. It’s very rare for Toronto to lose a ufa. Hyman left wanted way too much and was mad that the leafs didn’t offer him

Manson said no but Manson is a Canadian as much as American. His family lives in sask and he grew up here. He said no. With a new family I totally get it.

The American taxes change things now with the increases. Heck dadabov had Anaheim on his NTC because of taxes.

People forget that John Gibson voluntarily came and played in Canada as a teen and he seems to want to win. If he is married to an American that might make it tougher. If Covid rules start again there is no chance.

But Gibson had no problem with Canada as a kid and seems to really want to win. Toronto seems to be a goalie away. So who knows

You stated media, but then never expanded. Media is the exact thing that came to my mind. While Gibson has gotten significantly better, you can still tell that he doesn't like or is uncomfortable in interviews. Interviews early on in his career he couldn't hide that he was annoyed that he had to do an interview. Also, in Anaheim he can pretty much live a normal life where no one really recognizes him, throw that quality of life out the window if you go to a Toronto or Edmonton. Some players love the spotlight OFF the ice, and I never got that feeling from Gibby. He seems like he wants the spotlight on the ice, but off the ice wants to just be a guy.

 

[TommyDangles]

The general framework for what a Gibson trade should look like is:

1st + High End Prospect + As many short term cap dumps as you want

Maybe add a 2nd or lower tier prospect depending on the quality of the main prospect and cap dumps.

Maybe he'd get that if he was playing good. No clue why you'd give all that up for a below average goalie with a huge cap hit.