Value of: John Gibson at the draft

[Eggtimer]

Stolarz has better stats, but backup goalies usually get more favorable matchups.

48% of Stolarz games have been against playoff teams

65% of Gibson games have been against playoff teams

I am clueless when it comes to advanced stats . Are there any stats that show quality of shots / scoring chances between the two goalies? Maybe Stolarz doesn’t see the amount of high danger chances against that Gibson does ? I don’t know where to find it but isn’t there a expected save stat ? Does that take into account how dangerous the shots against are ? Or what woild the best statue in order to compare the two on how they handle a increased work load or difference in quality of opposition they face and see how they both compare ?

 

[TommyDangles]

I am clueless when it comes to advanced stats . Are there any stats that show quality of shots / scoring chances between the two goalies? Maybe Stolarz doesn’t see the amount of high danger chances against that Gibson does ? I don’t know where to find it but isn’t there a expected save stat ? Does that take into account how dangerous the shots against are ? Or what woild the best statue in order to compare the two on how they handle a increased work load or difference in quality of opposition they face and see how they both compare ?

Yea you can find a lot of goalie advanced stats on NHL Goalie Statistics

They have goals saved above expected, save % above expected, WAR, high danger save %, and other stats on there.

 

[snipes]

Ducks should have moved him when his value was higher, his value is continuing to drop.

 

[Eggtimer]

Yea you can find a lot of goalie advanced stats on NHL Goalie Statistics

They have goals saved above expected, save % above expected, WAR, high danger save %, and other stats on there.

Awesome , thank you . Now I just need my 12 year old nephew to explain how it works and what the stats mean .

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Goalies are often visibly worse when their team is bad, especially when their team defense is bad, and if anyone knows anything about NHL hockey, they know that Dallas Eakins doesn't have good defensive systems, ha ha.

Unfortunately, other GM's won't accept "our coach sucked and our team defense sucked but Gibson is still a top 5 goalie despite how those things affected his play" without some more things to back that up a bit.

Does make you wonder about Eakins system… lindholm did make a comment about the system not being a fit for him either when he was traded

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I was being facetious, but yeah.

My thing with Gibson is sure his attitude when his team is losing is rotten, he just rolls over and dies. But I bet if you were to run advanced stats for games when his team wasn't eliminated from the playoffs, he'd be near the top. Unfortunately for his numbers, the ends of Ducks seasons have been bad lately, but it's like people forget how much of a factor he was in keeping them competitive. I can see an argument that it's a gamble on if you're getting that guy or not, but this thread and so many others are absolutely full of reductive save-percentage-only arguments with no context.

 

[rockinghockey]

Gibson has got to be one of the most overrated players in the league

ANA fans better realize his value is not as high as it was two years ago. His numbers are not that good at all and it is not like he has a good contract that is cap friendly. If he gets traded and does not produce the GM that traded for him will be gone.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

At this point NJ taking him for free would make me very nervous, giving up legit assets to acquire him would anger me. I don't know if that's a lol HFboards position or not but the last 3 years make the next 5 years of Gibson look very expensive and if he doesn't work out, a big time albatross.

 

[GhostfaceWu]

Schneider's numbers were better when he got traded and he got 9th overall not first plus top prospect plus plus like some of these people think.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I was being facetious, but yeah.

My thing with Gibson is sure his attitude when his team is losing is rotten, he just rolls over and dies. But I bet if you were to run advanced stats for games when his team wasn't eliminated from the playoffs, he'd be near the top. Unfortunately for his numbers, the ends of Ducks seasons have been bad lately, but it's like people forget how much of a factor he was in keeping them competitive. I can see an argument that it's a gamble on if you're getting that guy or not, but this thread and so many others are absolutely full of reductive save-percentage-only arguments with no context.

I mean he was literally in vezina running for first half of this season when the team was battling for points and actually realistically in the playoff chase. Other fans just choose to ignore that

He’s competitive and a bit of a bad attitude when team isn’t doing well but people casually look at stats and think guy is washed up…. Where context prob means a bit more with Gibson…. Now I don’t think he’s worth getting if you arnt planning on being a contender/playoff team this year.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

At this point NJ taking him for free would make me very nervous, giving up legit assets to acquire him would anger me. I don't know if that's a lol HFboards position or not but the last 3 years make the next 5 years of Gibson look very expensive and if he doesn't work out, a big time albatross.

See but his stats took a nose dive under Eakins, who doesn’t seem to run a great defensive system. He also was in the vezina running up until the all star break. It’s not like he’s just a bad goalie…. But he does seem to play down when the team is out

 

[lwvs84]

Yea you can find a lot of goalie advanced stats on NHL Goalie Statistics

They have goals saved above expected, save % above expected, WAR, high danger save %, and other stats on there.

The problem is, do those states consider the quality of shooter? Ducks have breakdowns against all teams, but there's a difference between Drai/Kane getting the shot vs. a Coyotes player.

 

[Eggtimer]

The problem is, do those states consider the quality of shooter? Ducks have breakdowns against all teams, but there's a difference between Drai/Kane getting the shot vs. a Coyotes player.

I think it’s broken down - high danger / medium / etc. so you’d just compare Stolarz amount of high danger average shots vs . Gibsons and it would show what you are trying to accomplish. High danger I would assume = good scroing chance / difficult shit to save = shot from a high scrutiny area or good shot on net = stud player taking the shot
Indirectly does what you are saying

 

[lwvs84]

I think it’s broken down - high danger / medium / etc. so you’d just compare Stolarz amount of high danger average shots vs . Gibsons and it would show what you are trying to accomplish. High danger I would assume = good scroing chance / difficult shit to save = shot from a high scrutiny area or good shot on net = stud player taking the shot
Indirectly does what you are saying

Oh OK, I was thinking it just shows the quality of the area of the shot. The Ducks have those breakdowns against every team but Gibson faces tougher teams

 

[Omar23]

Sandin/Lily
Robertson
2022 1st
2023 3rd
Kerfoot/Mrazek (cap)

For
Gibson+Comtois

I’m sure his buddy Anderson can fill him in on the joys of playing in Toronto.

 

[AuraSphere]

I’m sure his buddy Anderson can fill him in on the joys of playing in Toronto.

I mean considering Andersen* wanted to return to Toronto but there just wasn't a fit for us - I think you're right about him finding Toronto a joy to play for

 

[Omar23]

I mean considering Andersen* wanted to return to Toronto but there just wasn't a fit for us - I think you're right about him finding Toronto a joy to play for

On the ice he’d love it, the toxic Toronto atmosphere that comes with it….?

 

[Omar23]

I never understood this. Do American players really hate Canada that much that they would rather continue to play on a terrible team going through a rebuild than play for a playoff team in Toronto or Edmonton?

Doesnt exactly scream "he wants to win".

There are playoff teams from the US

 

[AuraSphere]

On the ice he’d love it, the toxic Toronto atmosphere that comes with it….?

Nah I don't disagree with you - being a goalie in Toronto is super tough. Takes someone with strong mental fortitude for sure.

I was just responding to your comment about Andersen not liking it here - which is false. He wanted to renew and stay in Toronto over Carolina

 

[Black N Gold]

I don't think it matters with Toronto.

Like I said even if some Disney level shit happened where Marazek suddenly got hot and lead the Leafs to a cup he can't be brought back.

There is quite literally nothing Marazek can do to be brought back he's been that bad.

Not to mention Campbell is a UFA so regardless Toronto will be in the goalie market

the onl question is will the core be brought back?

I think that depends, if the win a round? probably, if they win 2? I'd say yes, if they don't win a round? Ithen that depends on if Dubas and Keefe are ack, because if they don't win a round Dubas probably isn't back

What about:
To Pittsburgh Pittsburgh native goalie John Gibson
To Anaheim 2 time all star goalie 26, rTistan Jarry / 25 year old LHD defenseman Marcus Petersson 25 year old winger kaspari Kapanen/ a 1st round pick...

 

[Eggtimer]

What about:
To Pittsburgh Pittsburgh native goalie John Gibson
To Anaheim 2 time all star goalie 26, rTistan Jarry / 25 year old LHD defenseman Marcus Petersson 25 year old winger kaspari Kapanen/ a 1st round pick...

Holy shit Ducks start filing the paperwork with the NHL before they even get a chance to finish up the phone conversation with Pitt .