This place reacts with strong convictions all the time to things that are often transitionary. A year ago Connor was a one dimensional weak link in our top 6, but has since proven to be anything but. Last summer 1/2 this board wanted to trade Morrissey for scraps because he all of a sudden became a "bad" defenseman. You'll very rarely have everyone at the peak of their game at the same time. Over reaction to small sample size is what this board does best.
Post-Game Talk: Jets reel in the Kraken win 5-3
- Thread starter bustamente
- Start date
- Status
gojetsgo
Registered User
- Nov 1, 2015
- 11,187
- 31,497
Romang67
BitterSwede
The Wheeler-Scheifele duo has been outscored 5v5 over the past 4, 3, 2, and current seasons, while getting manhandled from an xGF%. Are you sure the people highly questioning that duo are the ones overreacting to a small sample size?
f***.
But........
At least put Svech back with Dubois and Connor without Perfetti then.
No Ehlers, no Perfetti, no Copp and we could have very easily been without Scheifele too with that dirty hit from behind by Gorde, Jesus.
Romang67
BitterSwede
I wouldn't be shocked to see Lowry put Reichel up there.
Did you look this up or just say it? If you actually look it up both end up on the good side of GF% at even strength over the last 4 1/2 seasons. Scheifele by a considerable amount. This is not even considering strength of competition.
I would rather Svech but i do like Reichel's speed.
Romang67
BitterSwede
Of course I looked it up. Did you?
Last 4.5 seasons includes the 17/18 Jets, which I for obvious reasons excluded (I consider the 17/18 Scheifele/Wheeler duo to be roughly as relevant to the current Jets as the 17/18 Dustin Byfuglien). I included the start to the 18/19 season, which was before the duo went completely in the tank. Over the past 150+ games played together on the ice, they have a 46.7 GF% and a 47.2 xGF%. Including the 18/19 season pushes the GF% up to 48.5 and xGF% up to 47.6%.
So, again, are the people looking at their last 82, 153, 235 games together really the ones overreacting to a small sample?
bustamente
Fraud Supporter
Not surprised about Perfetti he took a solid hit and the boards don't move, much like Heinola has learned this year he is going to have to learn to take these heavy checks cause if he continues to impress teams will target him.
Romang67
BitterSwede
I also prefer Svech, by a lot. I just think Lowry is going to put Reichel up there. I hope to be surprised.
- Jun 10, 2014
- 58,948
- 31,465
Yes, this board swings pretty sharply.
But - a year ago KFC was a 1 dimensional player, and always had been. I don't think I ever called him a weak link. But he was limited. He has changed, grown with experience and confidence. And maybe the change in linemates has affected him. In fairness, Morrissey had been off his game for quite a while. I think an overuse of some debatable advanced stats came into play there too. The sample size on Scheifele and Wheeler no longer being good together was also pretty large. But these 3 cases are cautionary tales. Even substantial sized samples need to be viewed skeptically when they sharply contradict previous evidence.
The swings from one (or 2) win(s) to one (or 2) loss(es) and back again can be humourous. That's why I am not totally abandoning the tank yet, nor entirely giving up hope for the PO either. The fence sitting is getting uncomfortable, but it is required right now.
I'll enjoy the attempt to squeeze into the post-season while it lasts. But when/if it ends, I will be hoping for the sale and the best possible draft position.
We have 4 games coming up against tough/hot teams. They could be the tipping point, either way. Wish we had Ehlers back.
Nice to exclude our cup run season, but include post Covid recovery this season. That seems fair. Lets leave both out. Scheifele is 170 -165 or a GF% of 50.75% for the 3 seasons prior to this at 5-5. At even strength he is 218-204 for GF% of 51.66 for the 3 seasons prior to this season.
Huffer
Registered User
- Jul 16, 2010
- 16,934
- 7,049
Great to get another 2 points. Sucks to lose Perfetti. We really need to get healthy if we have any shot of making the playoffs.
Romang67
BitterSwede
Do you really think our cup run season is relevant in the discussion on whether the Wheeler-Scheifele duo is performing? 2018 is a LONG time ago. It was KC's rookie season.
Either way, I don't understand why you keep coming back to only Scheifele when discussing the performance of the Wheeler-Scheifele duo. Excluding this season, Wheeler and Scheifele had a 49.5 GF% when on the ice together the seasons 18/19-20/21, and a 48.0 xGF%.
So, again, I come back to the question, are the people who look at these numbers and see that they consistently have been below 50% GF% and well below 50% xGF% as a duo since our cup run really the people who are overreacting to a small sample?
WPGChief
Registered User
Quick, no cheating allowed - what's Kyle Connor's G± and xG± at 5v5 this season?
While you're doing that, I'll respond to the Morrissey topic - yes, I'm glad that he's not 2019-21 bad and he's largely returned to the 2016-18 form (and to your point, it's funny how this happens while Pionk is struggling pretty hard this season). That's partly due to the fact that Maurice/Lowry and Huddy aren't throwing him out there for 40% available 5v5 TOI against the toughest opponents every single game, now that they have Dillon and Schmidt (and IMO, I think Schmidt has been a boon to him for leadership as it's no longer just him).
All that being said, Jets have 32.8% of their cap dedicated to this 'revamped' defence and according to Evolving-Hockey's GAR, they have a team total of 0.9 GAR for their defencemen this season. Totaling the 2019-21 seasons, Jets were at 14.5 GAR. (COL led the pack at a ridiculous 80.5 GAR in that same timespan.) Morrissey has been good, not great. Dillon and Schmidt have been fine (or just above replacement-level), not good. Pionk and Stanley just aren't what we thought they were when they had great results vs the Canadian division. It's tough to reconcile all things considered but there's still more problems than there are solutions.
Overreacting to small sample sizes would be believing that Scheifele and Wheeler have finally returned to form in these past 6 games whereas their previous season's worth hasn't been anything close.
I think this place gets into an echo chamber and ends up pushing well past what is actually happening and invents an extreme version of it and then tries to fit all information into that "agreed" perception. Then over corrects the other way when the new information becomes impossible to ignore. When in truth there are ebbs and flows in careers due to a wide variety of factors and the truth is somewhere in the middle of the extreme views on either end of the spectrum.Yes, this board swings pretty sharply.
But - a year ago KFC was a 1 dimensional player, and always had been. I don't think I ever called him a weak link. But he was limited. He has changed, grown with experience and confidence. And maybe the change in linemates has affected him. In fairness, Morrissey had been off his game for quite a while. I think an overuse of some debatable advanced stats came into play there too. The sample size on Scheifele and Wheeler no longer being good together was also pretty large. But these 3 cases are cautionary tales. Even substantial sized samples need to be viewed skeptically when they sharply contradict previous evidence.
The swings from one (or 2) win(s) to one (or 2) loss(es) and back again can be humourous. That's why I am not totally abandoning the tank yet, nor entirely giving up hope for the PO either. The fence sitting is getting uncomfortable, but it is required right now.
I'll enjoy the attempt to squeeze into the post-season while it lasts. But when/if it ends, I will be hoping for the sale and the best possible draft position.
We have 4 games coming up against tough/hot teams. They could be the tipping point, either way. Wish we had Ehlers back.
Mrs Sux' says: Mi esposo se tarda mucho en bañarse.
también Macmaroon y su mano
Ustedes...
I don't think it is really that relevant to talk about only duos. Over the last few seasons Wheeler has played away from Scheifele a great deal of the time. I'm also sure if given the private choice Scheifele would pick Connor and Ehlers to be his linemates to maximize production. With Ehlers hurt and Connor playing with PLD Wheeler becomes a default linemate, especially with Perfetti now likely out.
And my small sample size comment was also in reference to this boards treatment of both Connor and Morrissey over the last couple seasons.
WolfHouse
Registered User
- Oct 4, 2020
- 10,726
- 16,647
- Jun 10, 2014
- 58,948
- 31,465
That I can agree with entirely.
The truth on most things is somewhere in the middle. Not just fandom.
kanadalainen
A pint of dark matter, please.
- Status
Ad
Upcoming events
-
-
-
-
-
Grey Cup 111TH GREY CUP - Toronto Argonauts vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers - Vancouver - TSN, CBS Sports NetworkWagers: 11Staked: $94,214.00Event closes- Updated: