Post-Game Talk: Jets reel in the Kraken win 5-3

[Romang67]

My thoughts when I saw the Brooks signing...

I mean, Svech has played a total of 10 minutes over the past three games, and has played over 10 minutes twice since November. It doesn't take a particularly clever sleuth to figure out that he's not gonna get put with Dubois and Connor again.

That split is really something. He played less than 10 minutes per game twice before December (the first two games of the season), and has played more than 10 minutes twice since. What the hell did he do?

 

[DRW204]

Quick, no cheating allowed - what's Kyle Connor's G± and xG± at 5v5 this season?

While you're doing that, I'll respond to the Morrissey topic - yes, I'm glad that he's not 2019-21 bad and he's largely returned to the 2016-18 form (and to your point, it's funny how this happens while Pionk is struggling pretty hard this season). That's partly due to the fact that Maurice/Lowry and Huddy aren't throwing him out there for 40% available 5v5 TOI against the toughest opponents every single game, now that they have Dillon and Schmidt (and IMO, I think Schmidt has been a boon to him for leadership as it's no longer just him).

All that being said, Jets have 32.8% of their cap dedicated to this 'revamped' defence and according to Evolving-Hockey's GAR, they have a team total of 0.9 GAR for their defencemen this season. Totaling the 2019-21 seasons, Jets were at 14.5 GAR. (COL led the pack at a ridiculous 80.5 GAR in that same timespan.) Morrissey has been good, not great. Dillon and Schmidt have been fine (or just above replacement-level), not good. Pionk and Stanley just aren't what we thought they were when they had great results vs the Canadian division. It's tough to reconcile all things considered but there's still more problems than there are solutions.

Overreacting to small sample sizes would be believing that Scheifele and Wheeler have finally returned to form in these past 6 games whereas their previous season's worth hasn't been anything close.

actually kind of surprised KC ranks pretty poor in xGA still. his 2nd worst on-ice rate of his career. he is higher in xGF (both on-ice and individual) though.

as for morrissey. he was not good those few seasons. there's a myriad of reasons to why (some in his control and some out of it). people comment on what they see and stats bear out. id say from 18-19 until last year he was pretty underwhelming. he's had a bounce back year no question and has been our best overall dman, and hopefully he can keep it up for the remainder of this year/his career but that doesn't just wipe those seasons out of existence. why's it so outlandish that over a course of a career a player can have good and bad years?

i do agree with your point on Pionk, and saw you post on him on twitter. last year he was great but like lots of stats from last season, it was against an outlier set of opponents and schedule. i think his play (outside the PP production) has been closer to his first season as a Jet, perhaps worse? we'll see how the year finishes out but i do think he and dillon were improving for while there after a bad start.

 

[Huffer]

actually kind of surprised KC ranks pretty poor in xGA still. his 2nd worst on-ice rate of his career. he is higher in xGF (both on-ice and individual) though.

View attachment 508536

as for morrissey. he was not good those few seasons. there's a myriad of reasons to why (some in his control and some out of it). people comment on what they see and stats bear out. id say from 18-19 until last year he was pretty underwhelming. he's had a bounce back year no question and has been our best overall dman, and hopefully he can keep it up for the remainder of this year/his career but that doesn't just wipe those seasons out of existence. why's it so outlandish that over a course of a career a player can have good and bad years?

i do agree with your point on Pionk, and saw you post on him on twitter. last year he was great but like lots of stats from last season, it was against an outlier set of opponents and schedule. i think his play (outside the PP production) has been closer to his first season as a Jet, perhaps worse?

For me on the Morrissey thing, it felt like folks (some) were solely looking at the stats and using that as the only basis for saying he was terrible and should be traded. He did have an underwhelming stretch, but I think the nuance was a little lost at times. IMO, he was left holding close to the entire bag on defense, and that's already on a team with terrible defensive forwards and overall team play. I felt that JoMo was a better player than his numbers were showing.

 

[KingBogo]

actually kind of surprised KC ranks pretty poor in xGA still. his 2nd worst on-ice rate of his career. he is higher in xGF (both on-ice and individual) though.

View attachment 508536

as for morrissey. he was not good those few seasons. there's a myriad of reasons to why (some in his control and some out of it). people comment on what they see and stats bear out. id say from 18-19 until last year he was pretty underwhelming. he's had a bounce back year no question and has been our best overall dman, and hopefully he can keep it up for the remainder of this year/his career but that doesn't just wipe those seasons out of existence. why's it so outlandish that over a course of a career a player can have good and bad years?

i do agree with your point on Pionk, and saw you post on him on twitter. last year he was great but like lots of stats from last season, it was against an outlier set of opponents and schedule. i think his play (outside the PP production) has been closer to his first season as a Jet, perhaps worse? we'll see how the year finishes out but i do think he and dillon were improving for while there after a bad start.

xGF% is a funny stat as it is the average expected goals with the chances available. Good goal scorers regularly outscore their xGF% because they have the talent to outscore what is expected on average. And poor goal scorers regularly under perform their xGF% because the fail to score on optimal chances. As proof, despite countless posts about Lowry being a blackhole for offense he has the 2nd highest xGF% on the team this season with a minimum of 200 minutes played. And this is going 3-6-9 in 48 GP.

 

[surixon]

That sucks, but hopefully a little longer just means a week or two and not a month plus.

 

[surixon]

Yes, this board swings pretty sharply.

But - a year ago KFC was a 1 dimensional player, and always had been. I don't think I ever called him a weak link. But he was limited. He has changed, grown with experience and confidence. And maybe the change in linemates has affected him. In fairness, Morrissey had been off his game for quite a while. I think an overuse of some debatable advanced stats came into play there too. The sample size on Scheifele and Wheeler no longer being good together was also pretty large. But these 3 cases are cautionary tales. Even substantial sized samples need to be viewed skeptically when they sharply contradict previous evidence.

The swings from one (or 2) win(s) to one (or 2) loss(es) and back again can be humourous. That's why I am not totally abandoning the tank yet, nor entirely giving up hope for the PO either. The fence sitting is getting uncomfortable, but it is required right now.
I'll enjoy the attempt to squeeze into the post-season while it lasts. But when/if it ends, I will be hoping for the sale and the best possible draft position.

We have 4 games coming up against tough/hot teams. They could be the tipping point, either way. Wish we had Ehlers back.

I think with Morrissey it was a couple of factors. First he was as blindsided as anyone from Buff leaving and he wasn't prepared to take on the number 1 role. Add in playing with bad partners and I think he was very overwhelmed 2020. I also don't think he was fully healthy given how much he shied away from contact. His off ice situation with his dad derailed last season for him.

This year he looks back to normal and has that physical element back in his game.

 

[WolfHouse]

I mean, Svech has played a total of 10 minutes over the past three games, and has played over 10 minutes twice since November. It doesn't take a particularly clever sleuth to figure out that he's not gonna get put with Dubois and Connor again.

That split is really something. He played less than 10 minutes per game twice before December (the first two games of the season), and has played more than 10 minutes twice since. What the hell did he do?

Either his knee really is fkd or there is some off-ice issue... there's no way Svech's play was worse than Ves or Pogo...

 

[Romang67]

I think with Morrissey it was a couple of factors. First he was as blindsided as anyone from Buff leaving and he wasn't prepared to take on the number 1 role. Add in playing with bad partners and I think he was very overwhelmed 2020. I also don't think he was fully healthy given how much he shied away from contact. His off ice situation with his dad derailed last season for him.

This year he looks back to normal and has that physical element back in his game.

Yeah, I think many people were a bit shallow in their analysis of Morrissey, in that they looked at his (bad) stats, saw that players like Poolman performed better away from Morrissey, and assumed this meant he was a lost cause.

As you say, I think there were many factors that played in on Morrissey's poor performance. Removing Buff was massive. His dad, added pressure of having to be #1, and what seemed to be a bum shoulder. I'm over the moon that he looks like he's back to being good, because I was really worried about him after the past 3 seasons.

 

[Huffer]

Somehow feel like the Scheifele hit isn't getting as much discussion here or the main board only because by some miracle he wasn't seriously hurt. So it goes from a nothing play that the DOPS won't even look at to where if he goes in slightly different and gets seriously injured it's now a terrible hit and a suspension.

Personally, it's long past due that the DOPS, and all the league mouthpieces switch looking at hits and their suspensions with the outcome as a factor. IMO, that hit was as dangerous and dirty as any other. More dangerous and dirty than Scheifele hitting Evans a half second late which according to some was the worst hit ever.

 

[surixon]

Yeah, I think many people were a bit shallow in their analysis of Morrissey, in that they looked at his (bad) stats, saw that players like Poolman performed better away from Morrissey, and assumed this meant he was a lost cause.

As you say, I think there were many factors that played in on Morrissey's poor performance. Removing Buff was massive. His dad, added pressure of having to be #1, and what seemed to be a bum shoulder. I'm over the moon that he looks like he's back to being good, because I was really worried about him after the past 3 seasons.

Context is important in all of these stats. Poolman was better away from him because he went and was sheltered on the third pairing.

But yes it's great that he's grown into the role and can seemingly do it no matter who his partner is on the team now.

 

[DRW204]

For me on the Morrissey thing, it felt like folks (some) were solely looking at the stats and using that as the only basis for saying he was terrible and should be traded. He did have an underwhelming stretch, but I think the nuance was a little lost at times. IMO, he was left holding close to the entire bag on defense, and that's already on a team with terrible defensive forwards and overall team play. I felt that JoMo was a better player than his numbers were showing.

maybe. like i said myriad of factors. i thought his individual play was not as good as 17-18, & then we all know what he went through off the ice now. then bad partners & of course bad defensive system plays a part. I will say though there were dmen on this team with poor partners (or fwds in front of bad dmen), within the same system, that still played really well. Pionk for example played with Forbort who outside of the first 4-6 weeks imo was in the same tier of suck of beaulieu or poolman, and id say Pionk last year played at a v high level (abnormal opponents/schedule though). So i don't know if i fully agree with holding the entire bag. Anyway, Morrissey this year has been great. not sure where people rank him league wide in terms of tier of Defenseman or "1D", but at least he's closer to his 17-18 showing.

 

[LowLefty]

I mean, Svech has played a total of 10 minutes over the past three games, and has played over 10 minutes twice since November. It doesn't take a particularly clever sleuth to figure out that he's not gonna get put with Dubois and Connor again.

That split is really something. He played less than 10 minutes per game twice before December (the first two games of the season), and has played more than 10 minutes twice since. What the hell did he do?

Coach Lowry likes the up and down work horse type player (when referring to bottom six talent) and less favorably at guys with skill (and a head for the game) that might make a mistake here or there but are better built to support a high skill line.
As you said earlier, hopefully he surprises us and doesn't add a work horse to a race horse line

 

[Romang67]

Somehow feel like the Scheifele hit isn't getting as much discussion here or the main board only because by some miracle he wasn't seriously hurt. So it goes from a nothing play that the DOPS won't even look at to where if he goes in slightly different and gets seriously injured it's now a terrible hit and a suspension.

Personally, it's long past due that the DOPS, and all the league mouthpieces switch looking at hits and their suspensions with the outcome as a factor. IMO, that hit was as dangerous and dirty as any other. More dangerous and dirty than Scheifele hitting Evans a half second late which according to some was the worst hit ever.

The DoPS is garbage. Why can't we try to put someone in charge who doesn't have a history of intentionally hurting opponents? Is it REALLY that important to hear what "reasoning" people with 1000+ PIM in their career can come up with for why a hit should be deemed bad or good?

 

[John Agar]

I think this place gets into an echo chamber and ends up pushing well past what is actually happening and invents an extreme version of it and then tries to fit all information into that "agreed" perception. Then over corrects the other way when the new information becomes impossible to ignore. When in truth there are ebbs and flows in careers due to a wide variety of factors and the truth is somewhere in the middle of the extreme views on either end of the spectrum.

There are two answers to your statement according this board. Here they are:

1)

2)

 

[Imcanadianeh]

The Wheeler-Scheifele duo has been outscored 5v5 over the past 4, 3, 2, and current seasons, while getting manhandled from an xGF%. Are you sure the people highly questioning that duo are the ones overreacting to a small sample size?


f***.

I didn’t look at each individual season but since the 18-19 season Wheeler - Scheifele - X have 101 GF and 103 GA 5v5 so yes they have been outscored 5v5 but not by a lot.

 

[Imcanadianeh]

xGF% is a funny stat as it is the average expected goals with the chances available. Good goal scorers regularly outscore their xGF% because they have the talent to outscore what is expected on average. And poor goal scorers regularly under perform their xGF% because the fail to score on optimal chances. As proof, despite countless posts about Lowry being a blackhole for offense he has the 2nd highest xGF% on the team this season with a minimum of 200 minutes played. And this is going 3-6-9 in 48 GP.

That’s the problem with pretty much any stat that involves shot attempts, it rewards players for not scoring goals and punishes players that do score goals.

like all stats they’re a good tool but a lot of people put way too much stock into xGF% then when watching said player they focus on the bad things they do that can lead to a bad xGF% but don’t see the good things they do that could also lead to a bad xGF%

 

[DRW204]

That’s the problem with pretty much any stat that involves shot attempts, it rewards players for not scoring goals and punishes players that do score goals.

like all stats they’re a good tool but a lot of people put way too much stock into xGF% then when watching said player they focus on the bad things they do that can lead to a bad xGF% but don’t see the good things they do that could also lead to a bad xGF%

Perhaps i am misinterpreting what you're saying. but that's wrong.

the actual outcomes of shot attempts have nothing to do with xGF or xGA. It doesn't punish anyone for scoring or not scoring. all xGF/xGA does is create a baseline based on shot-data to quantify quality of a shot-attempt (or Corsi For/Against). 2 players can shoot from the exact same distance, puck movement, type of shot, etc and will be assigned the same xGF score, however the better shooter might score (or the one facing a worse goaltender), which will be reflected in GF. Rebound attempts can contribute though if they do not score if that's what you mean. But i think that's why you look at CF/xGF/GF and CA/xGA/GA and the +/- on actual vs expected congruently.

a player like Lowry rates well in xGF% b/c of his xGA. his xGF/60 is only ahead of tonianto and vesalainen for the regular forwards. but his xGA/60 is really good, so that contributes heavily to his net (xGF%).

 

[SUX2BU]

The DoPS is garbage. Why can't we try to put someone in charge who doesn't have a history of intentionally hurting opponents? Is it REALLY that important to hear what "reasoning" people with 1000+ PIM in their career can come up with for why a hit should be deemed bad or good?

An idea if I may

how about have a former ref oversee the DOPS?

 

[Duke749]

Somehow feel like the Scheifele hit isn't getting as much discussion here or the main board only because by some miracle he wasn't seriously hurt. So it goes from a nothing play that the DOPS won't even look at to where if he goes in slightly different and gets seriously injured it's now a terrible hit and a suspension.

Personally, it's long past due that the DOPS, and all the league mouthpieces switch looking at hits and their suspensions with the outcome as a factor. IMO, that hit was as dangerous and dirty as any other. More dangerous and dirty than Scheifele hitting Evans a half second late which according to some was the worst hit ever.

I had no idea about that hit until I saw it on YouTube this morning and was blown away by the recklessness and malice behind it. What makes a player think shoving a player that hard from behind while being that far from the boards is ok? It’s clear intent. Can’t remember Scheif or Wheeler being the at pissed in a long ass time.

 

[JetsFan815]

Yeah, I think many people were a bit shallow in their analysis of Morrissey, in that they looked at his (bad) stats, saw that players like Poolman performed better away from Morrissey, and assumed this meant he was a lost cause.

As you say, I think there were many factors that played in on Morrissey's poor performance. Removing Buff was massive. His dad, added pressure of having to be #1, and what seemed to be a bum shoulder. I'm over the moon that he looks like he's back to being good, because I was really worried about him after the past 3 seasons.

Beyond just stats... Morrissey just looked off on the ice... it was not just last season but also the season before. Obviously no one knew about his dad situation but it was increasingly looking like he might have been a product of Trouba (who after his struggles the 1st year away from JoMo had bounced back nicely in the 2nd year but Josh was showng no such sign). Admittedly I was one of those who was hoping that if the Jets had a chance to get out of that contract they take it... I am glad he's proven everyone wrong though and looks like his old self again.

 

[snowkiddin]

I'd be looking to move Stanley as he likely returns a decent haul as GMs trip over themselves for size.

Stanley for Tippett straight up I would be all over, and I’m a strong Stanley supporter.

 

[heretik27]

An idea if I may

how about have a former ref oversee the DOPS?

I'm not sure that would be any better given the history NHL refs have of looking the other way at penalties and "managing" games. Would you really want someone like Francois St. Laurent heading the DoPS?

 

[10Ducky10]

An idea if I may

how about have a former ref oversee the DOPS?

How about Paul Kariya?

 

[10Ducky10]

Personally, it's long past due that the DOPS, and all the league mouthpieces switch looking at hits and their suspensions with the outcome as a factor. IMO, that hit was as dangerous and dirty as any other. More dangerous and dirty than Scheifele hitting Evans a half second late which according to some was the worst hit ever.

Hit the nail on the head...

 

[Eyeseeing]

An idea if I may

how about have a former ref oversee the DOPS?

Or a failed drama teacher?