Prospect Info: Jets Prospects

[Shlep]

What is Waltons realistic path forward? OHL next year, then Moose, then Jets?

That's the most likely, yes.

 

[AtomicJets]

Not sure why everyone thinks players will get gobs of money playing NCAA hockey the majority of them won't. I mean don't get wrong getting an education is great when its being paid by the school but most of these guys. Do you think Bemidji State is paying guys 100k a year to play..no and I doubt even the big time schools will do that for some player out of the CHL, The Hagens of the world sure they will get some minor but Walton isn't going to make more then he would if he signs a ELC. My guess is he is betting on himself this season and wants to get paid like a 1st rounder on that deal and he will get it if he keeps playing this way

Just to add to this, Canadians can't currently be legally paid under the NCAA NIL deals. They are on student visas and are thus ineligible to work. In basketball we have seen NCAA teams play a game in Canada (Canadian Zach Edey with Purdue played against Alabama in Toronto) to get around this rule but we are talking huge money to make that happen. It's unlikely we'd see the same thing with hockey for the reasons you mentioned already. The money just isn't there to the same degree in NCAA hockey.

You also have to consider that a player like Walton for example would collect his NHL signing bonus and his AHL salary, say 50k signing bonus plus 70k AHL salary. And also have a shot at playing in the NHL and earning his full salary there. Even if he signs and plays one more year in the OHL he is still getting his NHL signing bonus which is likely larger than anything he could get in the NCAA. As much as we like Walton, we aren't talking about the first overall pick here. He could get a free education and live it up for a couple years in the NCAA but he's probably not getting paid much. There's also the risk of downside where he gets injured or his game falls off dramatically and he ends up with nothing at all.

I'd say the risk of Walton going to the NCAA is low but it's still possible, depending on who is whispering in his ear.

 

[macmaroon]

I'd say the risk of Walton going to the NCAA is low but it's still possible, depending on who is whispering in his ear.

Hopefully not Rutger McGroarty's people...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't think the rules will change in terms of teams' rights to a drafted player who goes to college.

Currently, for 18 and 19 year old drafted players who are either already college students, become college students before the following June 1, OR become college students before the 2nd June 1st after their draft, the drafting team retains their rights for 4 years.

So for a player drafted in 2024 (like Walton), the drafting team would retain his rights until August 15, 2028 under the following scenarios:

D+1 to D+4 in college (4 consecutive years)
D+1 year in another league (OHL, USHL, BCHL, etc.), then D+2 to D+4 in college (3 consecutive years)

For a player drafted in 2023 (like Connor Levis), the drafting team can only retain his rights for 2 years and then he's eligible to be drafted again in 2025. Levis would've had to have been in college this year for the 4-year rights to apply.

Thanks for the clarification. Was not suggesting the rules would change. Just unsure of which rules would apply. For some circumstances everything is determined by what league a player was drafted out of, not where he last played.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not sure why everyone thinks players will get gobs of money playing NCAA hockey the majority of them won't. I mean don't get wrong getting an education is great when its being paid by the school but most of these guys. Do you think Bemidji State is paying guys 100k a year to play..no and I doubt even the big time schools will do that for some player out of the CHL, The Hagens of the world sure they will get some minor but Walton isn't going to make more then he would if he signs a ELC. My guess is he is betting on himself this season and wants to get paid like a 1st rounder on that deal and he will get it if he keeps playing this way

The door has been opened. Schools are going to compete with each other for talent. Walton will be able to choose among several offers with the season he is having. NCAA hockey doesn't generate football or basketball money so the competition won't be as fierce, but it will still be there.

 

[Romang67]

I haven't seen anything indicating that going the NCAA route means you're not beholden to the 4-year-out-of-draft rule. So Walton going to the NCAA means he's still Jets exclusive for another 3 years.

The door has been opened. Schools are going to compete with each other for talent. Walton will be able to choose among several offers with the season he is having. NCAA hockey doesn't generate football or basketball money so the competition won't be as fierce, but it will still be there.

Will the competition be fierce at all? What motivation is there to spend NIL money on a hockey player when the hockey program doesn't make the school any money, gives them minimal publicity, and the athlete on his own provides less value for the team than do student athletes in basketball and football?

 

[Buffdog]

The door has been opened. Schools are going to compete with each other for talent. Walton will be able to choose among several offers with the season he is having. NCAA hockey doesn't generate football or basketball money so the competition won't be as fierce, but it will still be there.

But why would someone choose the NCAA route from the CHL? If they want to make money playing hockey and they're Canadian born, 2 years of CHL after being drafted (with signing ELC sigining bonus paid) then AHL is the quickest way to do so

As someone mentionned, players on international student visas have very limited income restrictions down there.

It will remain to be seen, but i don't think this rule change will affect the top end players very much. The leagues that will be hurt the most will be USHL (the best US born players can now come up to play in the CHL before going to college in grades 11 and 12) and USport (undrafted players will play their CHL eligibility then head down to NCAA instead of usport)

I mean unless a guy like Walton WANTED an education, why make the switch? And if he did, he likely wouldn't have chosen the CHL route in the first place.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Just to add to this, Canadians can't currently be legally paid under the NCAA NIL deals. They are on student visas and are thus ineligible to work. In basketball we have seen NCAA teams play a game in Canada (Canadian Zach Edey with Purdue played against Alabama in Toronto) to get around this rule but we are talking huge money to make that happen. It's unlikely we'd see the same thing with hockey for the reasons you mentioned already. The money just isn't there to the same degree in NCAA hockey.

You also have to consider that a player like Walton for example would collect his NHL signing bonus and his AHL salary, say 50k signing bonus plus 70k AHL salary. And also have a shot at playing in the NHL and earning his full salary there. Even if he signs and plays one more year in the OHL he is still getting his NHL signing bonus which is likely larger than anything he could get in the NCAA. As much as we like Walton, we aren't talking about the first overall pick here. He could get a free education and live it up for a couple years in the NCAA but he's probably not getting paid much. There's also the risk of downside where he gets injured or his game falls off dramatically and he ends up with nothing at all.

I'd say the risk of Walton going to the NCAA is low but it's still possible, depending on who is whispering in his ear.

Good point about the student visa. That may save the CHL from losing a lot of good players.

But a player like Walton would not collect an AHL salary. AHL is not an option for him next year. The signing bonus would more likely be 95k. AHL salary is up to $82,500 now but he would be a year away from that.

True, we aren't talking about the 1st overall pick. Does the NCAA care that much about the NHL draft? We are talking about a kid who is producing at a similar level to all of the top picks with the exception of that 1st overall guy. NCAA could still be pretty appealing to him. Anyone here know what kind of a student he is? The education may or may not be of interest to him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I haven't seen anything indicating that going the NCAA route means you're not beholden to the 4-year-out-of-draft rule. So Walton going to the NCAA means he's still Jets exclusive for another 3 years.

Will the competition be fierce at all? What motivation is there to spend NIL money on a hockey player when the hockey program doesn't make the school any money, gives them minimal publicity, and the athlete on his own provides less value for the team than do student athletes in basketball and football?

The money is a lot less than the football, basketball money but I expect it is still substantial money. I don't know for certain of course. IDK if alumni money can enter into the picture or not.

My concern about the rights rules was that a player could move over to NCAA and still go back into the draft after 1 more year if it still went according to which league a player was drafted out of. @Gm0ney clarified that a little way back.

Since it then would go by the same rule as if he had been drafted out of the NCAA I wouldn't necessarily mind if he did go NCAA. I would prefer to see him signed sooner though.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

But why would someone choose the NCAA route from the CHL? If they want to make money playing hockey and they're Canadian born, 2 years of CHL after being drafted (with signing ELC sigining bonus paid) then AHL is the quickest way to do so

As someone mentionned, players on international student visas have very limited income restrictions down there.

It will remain to be seen, but i don't think this rule change will affect the top end players very much. The leagues that will be hurt the most will be USHL (the best US born players can now come up to play in the CHL before going to college in grades 11 and 12) and USport (undrafted players will play their CHL eligibility then head down to NCAA instead of usport)

I mean unless a guy like Walton WANTED an education, why make the switch? And if he did, he likely wouldn't have chosen the CHL route in the first place.

Yes, the student visa limitations added to the much smaller amounts of money for hockey make a big difference.

Playing NCAA hockey would be a very different experience than playing CHL hockey. It might be attractive to some players, I can't say. But, as you point out, if they wanted that they could have avoided the CHL in the first place.

 

[AtomicJets]

There are still a lot of unknowns. Remember this rule just changed 2 months ago. So far we have seen about 80 CHL players commit to the NCAA but they are almost all players who will have aged out of the CHL next season. In effect they are "graduating" from the CHL to the NCAA. Generally late NHL picks or undrafted players (similar to our own Connor Levis). However it's totally possible that there is a flood of players, good young players, who commit to the NCAA following this season. No one really knows.

There's also the issue of many of these NCAA schools have commitments lined up 2-3 years in advance. There are already players committed for 2027-28. So good schools like University of Denver are already loaded up. Now that doesn't mean they can't rescind offers or otherwise make more room for CHL players. They absolutely could. It may take some time for the floodgates to open fully.

The schools we're mostly seeing so far are teams like University of Alaska-Fairbanks, Quinnipiac, Bowling Green. Bowling Green made 350k off ticket sales for hockey last season. There is essentially zero TV revenue for NCAA hockey. So that is a dose of realism for how much money a school like that would have to offer. We're not talking about football or basketball in the southeastern states.

I think there definitely WILL be an exodus of players from the CHL to the NCAA. But just how many, and how soon, remains to be seen.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

What is Waltons realistic path forward? OHL next year, then Moose, then Jets?

Till he actually signs here, I'm sticking with the "OHL next year, then back into the draft, then..." path.

Sure, it's a long shot to happen, but if it does I am going to get MAJOR told-ya-so points.

 

[Bender Duster]

You would think Walton would be targeting playing in the NHL three seasons from now. I would think quickest path would be OHL next year (ideally with a contender), AHL season after, then NHL. I can’t see how NCAA could improve this timeline.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Till he actually signs here, I'm sticking with the "OHL next year, then back into the draft, then..." path.

Sure, it's a long shot to happen, but if it does I am going to get MAJOR told-ya-so points.

Nope. Not a single point for going with the long shot simply because it is negative.

Being a pessimist is one thing. There is a certain logic to avoiding disappointment. But being negative for negativities sake is another.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You would think Walton would be targeting playing in the NHL three seasons from now. I would think quickest path would be OHL next year (ideally with a contender), AHL season after, then NHL. I can’t see how NCAA could improve this timeline.

Does he go top 10 in a redraft? If he had been drafted top 10 would anyone be surprised at him making the NHL in D+3?

Of course I am projecting another 1.5 seasons in the OHL like this half season so far, but I don't think it would be unreasonable to expect him to to make it in D+3. Very often the only thing holding top prospects back is physical maturity. Teams want their top prospects to add size and strength so that they don't get overwhelmed by men. I don't think that should be an issue for Walton. At 6'6 he will weigh 225+ by then. OTOH, those top 10 picks usually go to weaker teams that can more easily accommodate them. That could easily hold KW back a year or even 2. But I won't be too surprised if he is in the NHL for the 26/27 season.

 

[Bender Duster]

Does he go top 10 in a redraft? If he had been drafted top 10 would anyone be surprised at him making the NHL in D+3?

Of course I am projecting another 1.5 seasons in the OHL like this half season so far, but I don't think it would be unreasonable to expect him to to make it in D+3. Very often the only thing holding top prospects back is physical maturity. Teams want their top prospects to add size and strength so that they don't get overwhelmed by men. I don't think that should be an issue for Walton. At 6'6 he will weigh 225+ by then. OTOH, those top 10 picks usually go to weaker teams that can more easily accommodate them. That could easily hold KW back a year or even 2. But I won't be too surprised if he is in the NHL for the 26/27 season.

Very possible scenario. One that likely couldn’t happen if he detours to NCAA next year.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Seems Walton was second place for OHL player of the month December.

OHL Announces Top Performers of the Month for December - Ontario Hockey League

 

[ICdave]

 

[BoneDocUK]

Thanks for this -- good to see Y back in the trenches without missing a beat after a disappointing WJC. Still think he'll develop into a solid complementary C with good defence and some scoring -- that elusive player we've been looking for since PS. Which ought to save a few future picks at least.

 

[surixon]

3 assists so far for Yager tonight.

 

[Teppo Numenor]

3 assists so far for Yager tonight.

Hopefully not Rutger McGroarty's people...

If he goes to the NCAA and decides he’s not ‘feel’n it’ can he drop out and play for the moose?

 

[Thechozen1]

3 assists so far for Yager tonight.

As I said before, I believe Yager’s lacklustre WJC’s was more a reflection of his utilization and chemistry with an offensively challenged group and is not indicative of future success or upside.

 

[WolfgangPuck]

Promising group of prospect we have.
If we could get more than one impact NHL player out of Walton/He/Yager/ DD/ Lucius/ Barlow. I would be pleased. So far it’s be fun reading about their progress
Not to mention Chib/Lambert are on the verge to be NHL ready

 

[surixon]

As I said before, I believe Yager’s lacklustre WJC’s was more a reflection of his utilization and chemistry with an offensively challenged group and is not indicative of future success or upside.

I put little stock in a 5 game tournament. The whole team was a colossal mess from the start.

 

[ICdave]