Prospect Info: Jets Prospects

[voyageur]

Our prospect pool lacks the high end pedigree which makes sense since we haven’t drafting high since Laine.

Can we get lucky YES, will it take luck YES. I look at Lambert a bit like Roslo at the same age (hopefully Brad pans out better), McGroarty is a good prospect but once I factor in the probability he’s moving on then I am somewhat ignoring him now. That leaves Salamonsson who I am excited about but it’s going to take a bit of luck still.

There are worse prospect pools out there but without McGroaty we are probably lower middle of the NHL pack now. I don’t mind our depth but we are missing #1 and maybe #2. If we had one high end blue chip future #1 centre type prospect at the top of our pool I would feel really optimistic.

I think the Jets should be in the bottom 3rd of the prospect rankings.

Since 2016, Samberg and Perfetti are the only players drafted who have grown into what is a good prospect ranking, top 6 F/top 4D, and there have been struggles in getting there.

The amount of draft picks traded to keep the team competitive is concerning, when the Jets miss on secondary picks...

A guy like Torgersson is coming off a 1 goal AHL season, while Faber gets his name in the Norris hat, and Evangelista is already scoring as a pro, with over 100 games under his belt.

Wyatt Johnson was 3rd in scoring on the Stars, and their leading scorer in the playoffs. Jets haven't even got a full AHL season out of Lucius yet.

Looking at the Milwaukee Admirals roster from last year and they have their prospects lined up exactly where you want them, at the top of the scoring on the team, including Kemell, taken after Mc Groarty, and Nashville has a lot more draft picks to play with down the road.

It's not now, when we have some prime time players that Chevy has hit on that our prospect pool is going to hurt. But down the road, competing against wily GMs in Nill, Poile/Trotz, Guerin, Doug Armstrong, not to mention the Utah team being gifted a litany of picks for being a failure and a dumping ground in the desert, and the Hawks being gifted a franchise player, and some good supporting pieces in a tear down rebuild, Chevy's recent draft history is disconcerting.

Lambert I think has a better IQ than Roslovic to play centre, but that's part hope on my part.

You have to think that if the Rangers went out earlier in the playoffs after acquiring Copp, our #1 prospect wouldn't even be on the board.

But that is one part of the risk in staying in the murky middle, and having to trade picks to stay competitive.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the Jets should be in the bottom 3rd of the prospect rankings.

Since 2016, Samberg and Perfetti are the only players drafted who have grown into what is a good prospect ranking, top 6 F/top 4D, and there have been struggles in getting there.

The amount of draft picks traded to keep the team competitive is concerning, when the Jets miss on secondary picks...

A guy like Torgersson is coming off a 1 goal AHL season, while Faber gets his name in the Norris hat, and Evangelista is already scoring as a pro, with over 100 games under his belt.

Wyatt Johnson was 3rd in scoring on the Stars, and their leading scorer in the playoffs. Jets haven't even got a full AHL season out of Lucius yet.

Looking at the Milwaukee Admirals roster from last year and they have their prospects lined up exactly where you want them, at the top of the scoring on the team, including Kemell, taken after Mc Groarty, and Nashville has a lot more draft picks to play with down the road.

It's not now, when we have some prime time players that Chevy has hit on that our prospect pool is going to hurt. But down the road, competing against wily GMs in Nill, Poile/Trotz, Guerin, Doug Armstrong, not to mention the Utah team being gifted a litany of picks for being a failure and a dumping ground in the desert, and the Hawks being gifted a franchise player, and some good supporting pieces in a tear down rebuild, Chevy's recent draft history is disconcerting.

Lambert I think has a better IQ than Roslovic to play centre, but that's part hope on my part.

You have to think that if the Rangers went out earlier in the playoffs after acquiring Copp, our #1 prospect wouldn't even be on the board.

But that is one part of the risk in staying in the murky middle, and having to trade picks to stay competitive.

Some 20/20 hindsight here - unless you would have picked Faber or Evangelista over Torgersson at the time, or Johnson over Lucius.

I think we can say that we wish Jets had taken someone better with some of those picks to have a better batting avg in the later rds, especially recently. But when you go cherry picking after the fact you can always find better players taken after your picks.

I think it is a different story if you can claim to have wanted a specific different player at the time. I wanted Ceulemans over Lucius. He hasn't lit the world on fire yet either.

 

[Bigfish]

Some 20/20 hindsight here - unless you would have picked Faber or Evangelista over Torgersson at the time, or Johnson over Lucius.

I think we can say that we wish Jets had taken someone better with some of those picks to have a better batting avg in the later rds, especially recently. But when you go cherry picking after the fact you can always find better players taken after your picks.

I think it is a different story if you can claim to have wanted a specific different player at the time. I wanted Ceulemans over Lucius. He hasn't lit the world on fire yet either.

How is it hindsight? Those players were available to the Jets and they picked another player. It's not the fans jobs to find diamonds in the ruff, it's Chevy's and the scouting staffs job, and so far, other than Hellebuyck, they done a very poor job.

 

[Jets 31]

How is it hindsight? Those players were available to the Jets and they picked another player. It's not the fans jobs to find diamonds in the ruff, it's Chevy's and the scouting staffs job, and so far, other than Hellebuyck, they done a very poor job.

How have they done a poor job when the entire core of a pretty good team was their own draft picks? Scheifele, Connor , Ehlers , Morrissey , Helly Lowry and Perfetti . I would say we have done fairly well considering we also have been a playoff team and not picking very high in most of the drafts.

 

[Bigfish]

How have they done a poor job when the entire core of a pretty good team was their own draft picks? Scheifele, Connor , Ehlers , Morrissey , Helly Lowry and Perfetti . I would say we have done fairly well considering we also have been a playoff team and not picking very high in most of the drafts.

Those are all first round picks. We are talking about players picked beyond the first round. Now go ahead and name all those players that are currently playing for the Jets.

 

[Heldig]

Those are all first round picks. We are talking about players picked beyond the first round. Now go ahead and name all those players that are currently playing for the Jets.

Hellebucyk and Lowry for starters.

Then there is Appleton, Samberg, Guftasson...

 

[kenobiwan]

There’s a reason why his name is “miss the mark” Hillier. Outside of the first round he’s done very little…..can’t say getting Helleybuck makes him a late round guru in my opinion. i think he and Chipman are what is holding the Jets back and our weak links. As well as having some of the worst assistant coaches and not canning them sooner. Loyalty above winning…..

 

[Buffdog]

Some of all y'all need to go look at what the probabilities of a later round pick even playing a game in the NHL are, let alone becoming a productive everyday player

For example... a player picked at the top of the 2nd round (33rd overall) has a 50/50 chance of playing 80 NHL games

 

[10Ducky10]

Copp?

 

[Bigfish]

Hellebucyk and Lowry for starters.

Then there is Appleton, Samberg, Guftasson...

In my original post i said other than Hellebucyk the Jets haven't drafted any diamonds in the ruff outside the first round. I don't consider Lowry, Appleton or Gustafsson a diamond in the ruff. Samberg has a chance.

 

[Heldig]

In my original post i said other than Hellebucyk the Jets haven't drafted any diamonds in the ruff outside the first round. I don't consider Lowry, Appleton or Gustafsson a diamond in the ruff. Samberg has a chance.

I responded to your latest post not the original.

And Lowry is a fantastic player for a 3rd round pick. 700+ games.

 

[Bigfish]

I responded to your latest post not the original.

And Lowry is a fantastic player for a 3rd round pick. 700+ games.

I'll give you Lowry. The Jets would be screwed without him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

How is it hindsight? Those players were available to the Jets and they picked another player. It's not the fans jobs to find diamonds in the ruff, it's Chevy's and the scouting staffs job, and so far, other than Hellebuyck, they done a very poor job.

It is hindsight because it uses the benefit of what happened in the years after to identify a better pick. No one had the benefit of that information at the time of the draft because the information didn't exist. The definition of hindsight.

It is not hindsight to say that generally, Chevy and his scouts should have done better. They should more often have found some of those better players who were available.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Those are all first round picks. We are talking about players picked beyond the first round. Now go ahead and name all those players that are currently playing for the Jets.

Lowry, Hellebuyck, Appleton, Samberg, Gustafsson.
Not playing for Jets but drafted by them and playing in the NHL; Kovacevic, Copp, Chisholm, Harkins.

Not great, but not bad.

 

[Jets 31]

Some of all y'all need to go look at what the probabilities of a later round pick even playing a game in the NHL are, let alone becoming a productive everyday player

For example... a player picked at the top of the 2nd round (33rd overall) has a 50/50 chance of playing 80 NHL games

Totally agree and i don't think there are teams out there who have built a very good team out of low draft picks , it's just not a easy thing to do.

 

[Whileee]

Hellebucyk and Lowry for starters.

Then there is Appleton, Samberg, Guftasson...

I would add Copp, since he was developed by the Jets and played 7 seasons for the Jets before being traded for a big haul (Barron, Lambert, Salomonsson, Milic).

 

[Jets 31]

Those are all first round picks. We are talking about players picked beyond the first round. Now go ahead and name all those players that are currently playing for the Jets.

Helly and Lowry weren't but even hitting on 10th overall and lower in the first round isn't easy.

 

[Whileee]

Lowry, Hellebuyck, Appleton, Samberg, Gustafsson.
Not playing for Jets but drafted by them and playing in the NHL; Kovacevic, Copp, Chisholm, Harkins.

Not great, but not bad.

Copp played 7 seasons for the Jets and then returned Barron, Lambert, Salomonsson and Milic in a huge trade. Very hard to find many picks beyond the 1st round that have that much positive impact on a franchise, overall.

 

[gojetsgo]

draft is a crapshoot at a certain point, later round picks have some skills but a bunch of flaws that you hope they can overcome to get to the next level, it's funny because a team will hit on a 5th-6th round pick and people will call that good drafting when that same team misses on their 2nd-3rd-4th round picks

 

[Buffdog]

Totally agree and i don't think there are teams out there who have built a very good team out of low draft picks , it's just not a easy thing to do.

However, if you can hit on a guy like Kucherov in the second round it can certainly change the course of a franchise

I'd put Helle in the same class as Kuch. A 5th round pick that has multiple Vezinas is as good as it gets for finding late round diamond in the rough

I consider high draft picks to be the "cake" of a franchise (it's crucial to not have many of them bust), and anything you get in the third round or later that becomes a star or borderline star is like icing on top

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Totally agree and i don't think there are teams out there who have built a very good team out of low draft picks , it's just not a easy thing to do.

I think there are exceptions. TBL Cup winners had Kucherov, Point and several other late picks. They also had several very high picks too. When later picks turn out that well though it is pure luck.

Current Dallas Stars haven't won a Cup but are certainly contenders. They are lead by Robertson, Pavelski, Johnston and Hintz. They didn't draft all of those themselves but they are a pretty late drafted bunch.

But generally agree. You need to hit on your highest picks. But a few lucky late picks go a long way too.

 

[Mud Turtle]

P

Copp played 7 seasons for the Jets and then returned Barron, Lambert, Salomonsson and Milic in a huge trade. Very hard to find many picks beyond the 1st round that have that much positive impact on a franchise, overall.

What a return for Copp.
Hmmm, I wonder how Jets trades that traded away decent players for picks compares to trades that traded away our draft picks.
I think I might have to do some digging.

 

[Whileee]

P

What a return for Copp.
Hmmm, I wonder how Jets trades that traded away decent players for picks compares to trades that traded away our draft picks.
I think I might have to do some digging.

My general rule is that it's best to trade players for picks at the TDL and trade picks for players at the draft. Draft picks tend to be undervalued at the TDL and overvalued around the draft.

A GM could probably do quite well by just trading non-core vets for picks at the TDL and then either drafting good prospects or flipping picks for good players at the draft.

I understand why GMs try to strengthen their teams at the TDL when they are in a competitive window, but most of those trades don't seem to make the difference expected. I much prefer lower-value trades for players that might offer more than rental value. The trades for Nino (2nd) and Namestnikov (4th) were great trades, in retrospect. The Monahan and Toffoli trades really didn't accomplish much and might have actually been a net negative when all is said and done. Giving up picks for those types is really questionable.

 

[Channelcat]

There’s a reason why his name is “miss the mark” Hillier. Outside of the first round he’s done very little…..can’t say getting Helleybuck makes him a late round guru in my opinion. i think he and Chipman are what is holding the Jets back and our weak links. As well as having some of the worst assistant coaches and not canning them sooner. Loyalty above winning….. VFS zhhds

Nonsense. After the first round, players have roughly 5% chance of playing 82 career games. Jets do better than that.

 

[Mud Turtle]

My general rule is that it's best to trade players for picks at the TDL and trade picks for players at the draft. Draft picks tend to be undervalued at the TDL and overvalued around the draft.

A GM could probably do quite well by just trading non-core vets for picks at the TDL and then either drafting good prospects or flipping picks for good players at the draft.

I understand why GMs try to strengthen their teams at the TDL when they are in a competitive window, but most of those trades don't seem to make the difference expected. I much prefer lower-value trades for players that might offer more than rental value. The trades for Nino (2nd) and Namestnikov (4th) were great trades, in retrospect. The Monahan and Toffoli trades really didn't accomplish much and might have actually been a net negative when all is said and done. Giving up picks for those types is really questionable.

I couldn’t agree more.
Takes big balls and a long term view.