Prospect Info: Jets Prospects

[Mortimer Snerd]

You completely misinterpreted what I said. The fact that you think that Vesalainen got a fair shot due to playing a pair of games in the top 6 is the problem. A fair shot should look like 20-30 games, likely even more than that depending on the player. Instead, we gave him 50 games in circumstances in which nobody could produce anything, and now people deem him as a bust who got his shot and failed (which he didn't get).

You can choose to believe otherwise for as long as you want and technically be right in every case (survivorship bias at work there), but as the team promotes fewer and fewer prospects from its system and slides towards the basement in the NHL, you might want to consider other perspectives as well.

For future reference: people are going to f***ing love it when we get to dealing with Chisholm's waiver wire status. It sure would have been handy to give him his shot before he lost his waiver exemption... but hey, two games is OK, right?

the fact that you think prospects should be gifted 30+ games in the top 6 is a problem... I mean pretty sure everyone who watched him play didn't think he deserved a bigger role but now since he flamed out it's now the orgs fault for not playing him over guys that were clearly better then him...

There are points to be made on both sides of this debate. Neither side can be proven because it is about what might have happened under different circumstances. But there are things that are known.

We can look at the last 7 drafts and see the results Jets have obtained. The last 2 don't count because no results should be expected yet. We do have several promising prospects from those 2 drafts. The 5 before that though have produced little and even less for the Jets.
2016 - Laine & Stanley
Laine forced his way out. Traded for PLD who also wants out. To top it off, that deal also cost us Roslovic. Stanley was relatively expensive, has never been great, and wants out.
2017 - Produced Samberg & Kovacevic. Might not look bad if we had graduated Kovacevic.
2018 - Maybe Gustafsson, maybe Chisholm, maybe nothing.
2019 - Maybe Heinola, maybe Lundmark, maybe nothing.
2020 - Perfetti, if he can stay healthy.
Not a lot from 5 drafts.

There is that list of touted picks who have failed. Maybe they weren't handled/developed well. Maybe they were uncoachable. Maybe they just weren't very good, or lacked work ethic, or lacked hockey brains, etc. Maybe Jets drafted the wrong players. We'll never be able to say for certain.

One thing that we could look at is the Jets record with these kinds of players compared to league normal. I don't have the numbers for that. Much as I feel Jets could have done better with certain individuals I have to admit that Jets are probably no worse than most teams in that area.

I think the Jets might be a little below average in getting results past the first 15-20 or so places in the draft. They need to hit on a few of those prospects who are still in the system. They have recently lost 2 later picks who might have had a chance in Kovacevic & Gawanke.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Let's say we draft 2 dmen, 4 forwards and a goalie every year

Considering there are 7, 14 and 2 spots per position on the team, does everyone realize that not every prospect we draft will make the big club? Even if they progress well in their development, we can also fill roster spots through trades and free agency

Losing guys like Gawanke and Kovy happens to every team, every year. Neither of those guys were better than what we iced last season, and there was no immediate path for them to become regulars

Most of these guys think the grass is greener in other orgs but end up like petan and postma and niku when they moved on. Sure Kovy played regular minutes but it was on a shit team with even shittier d corps.

Trades and free agency? Right, bring it.

I wouldn't say that Kovy was better than Schmidt but he has a lot more career in front of him than Schmidt does. He was probably about = to Schmidt for 5.183 mil less cap hit. He may not have a high ceiling but he can reasonably be expected to improve at least a little with experience. That was his rookie year. Schmidt is only going to get worse.

There was no path for them because Jets blocked the path with mediocre vets.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

he was taken off the line because his game fell off, he's had plenty of chances to prove he belongs and he can never do it for more then a game or two.. like some people around here just expect prospects to be handed everything, they must play a certain game in the top 6 or else they aren't given real chances... like when is it on the prospect to take advantage of their opportunities, he was waived twice last year, nobody wanted him for free..

I disagree that he was taken off top 6 lines because his game fell off. He was never on a top 6 line long enough for his game to have fallen off.

It is always on the prospects to take advantage of their opportunities. And it is always on the org to set them up to succeed. It is a 2 way street.

Being passed up on waivers doesn't impress me that much. It might if he passes again, after his strong AHL season. Maybe that AHL production doesn't impress anyone at his age & stage of career. He is 26 now and the NHL ship may have sailed for him. It may be AHL lifer or Europe for him now.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He was on the 3rd checking line and it was the best line we had. It was the line that partly had Lowry playing at a 60 point pace more than a third of the way into the season. Instead Harkins goes down and Barron gets put on the 4th line and Lowry finishes the season with 15 points in his final 53 games.

Also true.
Did Barron do that much better a job playing with Lowry? Or was it just the ups and downs of Lowry's scoring. IIRC Lowry started the season scoring relatively well then dried up in the middle. Early season he would have been with Harkins, no?

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

There are points to be made on both sides of this debate. Neither side can be proven because it is about what might have happened under different circumstances. But there are things that are known.

We can look at the last 7 drafts and see the results Jets have obtained. The last 2 don't count because no results should be expected yet. We do have several promising prospects from those 2 drafts. The 5 before that though have produced little and even less for the Jets.
2016 - Laine & Stanley
Laine forced his way out. Traded for PLD who also wants out. To top it off, that deal also cost us Roslovic. Stanley was relatively expensive, has never been great, and wants out.
2017 - Produced Samberg & Kovacevic. Might not look bad if we had graduated Kovacevic.
2018 - Maybe Gustafsson, maybe Chisholm, maybe nothing.
2019 - Maybe Heinola, maybe Lundmark, maybe nothing.
2020 - Perfetti, if he can stay healthy.
Not a lot from 5 drafts.

There is that list of touted picks who have failed. Maybe they weren't handled/developed well. Maybe they were uncoachable. Maybe they just weren't very good, or lacked work ethic, or lacked hockey brains, etc. Maybe Jets drafted the wrong players. We'll never be able to say for certain.

One thing that we could look at is the Jets record with these kinds of players compared to league normal. I don't have the numbers for that. Much as I feel Jets could have done better with certain individuals I have to admit that Jets are probably no worse than most teams in that area.

I think the Jets might be a little below average in getting results past the first 15-20 or so places in the draft. They need to hit on a few of those prospects who are still in the system. They have recently lost 2 later picks who might have had a chance in Kovacevic & Gawanke.

The last several drafts have been very underwhelming. Perhaps among the worst in the league over the last 5 years.

 

[ps241]

There are points to be made on both sides of this debate. Neither side can be proven because it is about what might have happened under different circumstances. But there are things that are known.

We can look at the last 7 drafts and see the results Jets have obtained. The last 2 don't count because no results should be expected yet. We do have several promising prospects from those 2 drafts. The 5 before that though have produced little and even less for the Jets.
2016 - Laine & Stanley
Laine forced his way out. Traded for PLD who also wants out. To top it off, that deal also cost us Roslovic. Stanley was relatively expensive, has never been great, and wants out.
2017 - Produced Samberg & Kovacevic. Might not look bad if we had graduated Kovacevic.
2018 - Maybe Gustafsson, maybe Chisholm, maybe nothing.
2019 - Maybe Heinola, maybe Lundmark, maybe nothing.
2020 - Perfetti, if he can stay healthy.
Not a lot from 5 drafts.

There is that list of touted picks who have failed. Maybe they weren't handled/developed well. Maybe they were uncoachable. Maybe they just weren't very good, or lacked work ethic, or lacked hockey brains, etc. Maybe Jets drafted the wrong players. We'll never be able to say for certain.

One thing that we could look at is the Jets record with these kinds of players compared to league normal. I don't have the numbers for that. Much as I feel Jets could have done better with certain individuals I have to admit that Jets are probably no worse than most teams in that area.

I think the Jets might be a little below average in getting results past the first 15-20 or so places in the draft. They need to hit on a few of those prospects who are still in the system. They have recently lost 2 later picks who might have had a chance in Kovacevic & Gawanke.

Interesting side note. Marcel Comeau was the director of amateur scouting from our 2011 draft to the 2015 draft (lets dub that the golden era) when he stepped down and was replaced by Mark Hillier. Mark kicked off his run with the 2016 draft and began his leadership by trading up for Logan Stanley. It’s not all on Mark but I am struggling to understand how he has kept his job based on the results. Doesn’t help that the Jets transitioned from a draft and develop team to a let’s win now team.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Interesting side note. Marcel Comeau was the director of amateur scouting from our 2011 draft to the 2015 draft (lets dub that the golden era) when he stepped down and was replaced by Mark Hillier. Mark kicked off his run with the 2016 draft and began his leadership by trading up for Logan Stanley. It’s not all on Mark but I am struggling to understand how he has kept his job based on the results. Doesn’t help that the Jets transitioned from a draft and develop team to a let’s win now team.

They also went heavily European probably for the first time as well

 

[Heldig]

The last several drafts have been very underwhelming. Perhaps among the worst in the league over the last 5 years.

Agreed. The legend of Chevy as a draft master should be vanquished.

A draft and develop team that has not drafted nor developed particularly well for several seasons.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

The last several drafts have been very underwhelming. Perhaps among the worst in the league over the last 5 years.

Not sure how you make that assumption since most of those players are not ready for the NHL. We also have Perfetti/Gus as NHLers with several on the way. I think our last 2 drafts in particular are very strong

 

[Bigfish]

Not sure how you make that assumption since most of those players are not ready for the NHL. We also have Perfetti/Gus as NHLers with several on the way. I think our last 2 drafts in particular are very strong

Gus isn't an NHLer. 6 points, all assits, in 46 games doesn't make him an NHL player. And Perfetti, while a decent prospect, can't stay healthy. As for our most recent draft picks, none of them stand out to me as sure fire NHLers, including Lambert.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Gus isn't an NHLer. 6 points, all assits, in 46 games doesn't make him an NHL player. And Perfetti, while a decent prospect, can't stay healthy. As for our most recent draft picks, none of them stand out to me as sure fire NHLers, including Lambert.

Gus isn’t there for points. If he can develop into a very good shutdown player and only scores 5 points a season but can shut down anyone it’s a win.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The last several drafts have been very underwhelming. Perhaps among the worst in the league over the last 5 years.

I think the jury is still out on the last 2. No guarantees but a lot of potential.

 

[Bigfish]

Gus isn’t there for points. If he can develop into a very good shutdown player and only scores 5 points a season but can shut down anyone it’s a win.

5 points and it's a win. Good luck with that.

 

[surixon]

Ok let's look at it:

2016 - Top line winger who was traded for a 1C, we also got a 6/7 NHL dmen out of it. That checks off the two player per draft rule. One is a top of the line player so the draft is a success.

2017 - Snerg looks to be a top 4 defensive dmen so a successful pick. Nothing else likely from that draft so the on the whole an underwhelming draft.

2018 - Gus looks like a 4th liner with limited upside. Chisholm is promising and may be able to play in a top 4 at some point. Jury still out but is trending towards disappointment unless Chisholm hits his upside and Gus establishes himself as a plus suppression player like Lowry.

2019 - Heinola has dominated the AHL and clearly has top 4 upside. Will he get the chance here? If he does and sticks that salvages the draft. Otherwise not much else expected other then Lundmark who may eventually stick as a 6/7.

2020 - Perfetti is already a top 6 player so he's a successful pick. Has to continue to grow into his body though. Other then that maybe Bauer/Torgersson make it as bottom of the roster players but I'm not too optimistic.

Lots of intriguing players in 2021/2022.

So to me it looks like the 2017- 2020 drafts will likely only give us a couple good young players and maybe a couple depth pieces. Not a great stretch but teams have gone drafts without getting any NHL talent from their picks.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

I think the jury is still out on the last 2. No guarantees but a lot of potential.

We always say that about the previous 2 drafts.

 

[Atoyot]

Ok let's look at it:

2016 - Top line winger who was traded for a 1C, we also got a 6/7 NHL dmen out of it. That checks off the two player per draft rule. One is a top of the line player so the draft is a success.

2017 - Snerg looks to be a top 4 defensive dmen so a successful pick. Nothing else likely from that draft so the on the whole an underwhelming draft.

2018 - Gus looks like a 4th liner with limited upside. Chisholm is promising and may be able to play in a top 4 at some point. Jury still out but is trending towards disappointment unless Chisholm hits his upside and Gus establishes himself as a plus suppression player like Lowry.

2019 - Heinola has dominated the AHL and clearly has top 4 upside. Will he get the chance here? If he does and sticks that salvages the draft. Otherwise not much else expected other then Lundmark who may eventually stick as a 6/7.

2020 - Perfetti is already a top 6 player so he's a successful pick. Has to continue to grow into his body though. Other then that maybe Bauer/Torgersson make it as bottom of the roster players but I'm not too optimistic.

Lots of intriguing players in 2021/2022.

So to me it looks like the 2017- 2020 drafts will likely only give us a couple good young players and maybe a couple depth pieces. Not a great stretch but teams have gone drafts without getting any NHL talent from their picks.

Kovacevic should be included in the 2017 draft. Also don't think Gawanke's chances of making the NHL are entirely done, it just won't be with us. I have higher hopes for Nikkanen than I do for Lundmark, and I don't have high hopes for Nikkanen, but he does play a really tidy defensive game. Torgersson shows some really nice flashes of potential but needs to be more consistent.

 

[ICdave]

For folks who wanted to read a transcript of Scott Wheeler's comments about these players in the system. Found the Elias Salomonsson comments interesting since he's the prospect most know the least about.

 

[Whileee]

Not sure how you make that assumption since most of those players are not ready for the NHL. We also have Perfetti/Gus as NHLers with several on the way. I think our last 2 drafts in particular are very strong

Agree with this. The focus on Russia (Chibrikov, Rashevsky) and Sweden (Gus, Lundmark, Salomonsson, Torgersson) recently is interesting.

But I really like the last couple of drafts in terms of depth and quality.

Lucius
Chibrikov
Rashevsky

McGroarty
Lambert
Salomonsson
Zhilkin
DiVincentiis

Last year's draft could be really good, especially if Salomonsson hits as a top 4 RD.

 

[Adam da bomb]

5 points and it's a win. Good luck with that.

Thank you. Good luck with finding any players, prospects that meet your standards/ expectations.

 

[ps241]

Agree with this. The focus on Russia (Chibrikov, Rashevsky) and Sweden (Gus, Lundmark, Salomonsson, Torgersson) recently is interesting.

But I really like the last couple of drafts in terms of depth and quality.

Lucius
Chibrikov
Rashevsky

McGroarty
Lambert
Salomonsson
Zhilkin
DiVincentiis

Last year's draft could be really good, especially if Salomonsson hits as a top 4 RD.

Fingers crossed

Edit update: Listening to Wheeler talk about his chat with Salomonsson's I loved this quote from Wheeler:

“Salomonsson is a real interesting one. I had a chat with one of his coach’s over in Sweden last week for a different story I was doing on Axel Sandin Pellikka and in that process just really got chatting about Salomonsson and they just wanted, both, both the folks within the organization wanted to just wax poetic. They felt that before he got injured he was one of their best defencemen in the SHL last year. The quote that he used was a good one and I am paraphrasing here but he told me basically ‘I’ve seen good players become great players. I’ve never seen average players become great players as quickly as Salomonsson did last year’,"


So wouldn't it be refreshing if Elias became a really good RHD in our top 4.

 

[KingBogo]

Kovacevic should be included in the 2017 draft. Also don't think Gawanke's chances of making the NHL are entirely done, it just won't be with us. I have higher hopes for Nikkanen than I do for Lundmark, and I don't have high hopes for Nikkanen, but he does play a really tidy defensive game. Torgersson shows some really nice flashes of potential but needs to be more consistent.

Gawanke’s chances are about as over as they can be. He will be 24 in a couple days and just signed a 4 year deal to play in Germany. Not likely he returns to the NHL after 4 years at a lower level in his late 20’s.

 

[Atoyot]

Gawanke’s chances are about as over as they can be. He will be 24 in a couple days and just signed a 4 year deal to play in Germany. Not likely he returns to the NHL after 4 years at a lower level in his late 20’s.

The NHL has a transfer agreement with DEL, it's not like the KHL where he can't come back until his contract is done. He said himself he hopes the Jets trade him and if they do he'll sign a deal.

 

[KingBogo]

The NHL has a transfer agreement with DEL, it's not like the KHL where he can't come back until his contract is done. He said himself he hopes the Jets trade him and if they do he'll sign a deal.

That’s pretty unlikely for an AHL tweener. And if anyone in the NHL wanted to even take a look he would have already moved him. He also doesn’t need to be traded as he is a RFA that could be given an offer sheet if someone wanted him.

 

[Atoyot]

That’s pretty unlikely for an AHL tweener. And if anyone in the NHL wanted to even take a look he would have already moved him. He also doesn’t need to be traded as he is a RFA that could be given an offer sheet if someone wanted him.

Offer sheet could happen when his contract expires. Risk for him though because if the Jets want to be petty they can just match it. He'll be traded for pretty much nothing and will come back with a new team and likely be back in the AHL to start next season. He's pretty much a free young asset with upside and it's clear that his end goal is to play in the NHL. I don't think he'd have any issues going to the AHL with a new team he's just done with this organization.

 

[KingBogo]

Offer sheet could happen when his contract expires. Risk for him though because if the Jets want to be petty they can just match it. He'll be traded for pretty much nothing and will come back with a new team and likely be back in the AHL to start next season. He's pretty much a free young asset with upside and it's clear that his end goal is to play in the NHL. I don't think he'd have any issues going to the AHL with a new team he's just done with this organization.

Maybe he is done with the organization but it would appear there is zero interest around the league for his services. On just about every team he would be deep depth and they would be more interested in developing more promising prospects. When you hit age 24 and are 11-13 depth. on a bubble team you have no value anywhere. Guys like Capo and Kovy are always available to fill out rosters.