Speculation: Jets General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 15-16 Part XIII

[Gm0ney]

Tyler Myers is a good - not great, 2nd pair RHD, still only 26 years old and on a good contract. Outside of Winnipeg right shot D are much more rare than left shot D. RHD bring a bit of a premium for that reason.

If we could find a trade partner with the opposite imbalance to ours we should be able to make a straight up deal for a similar level of LHD. Detroit is in that position.

Brendan Smith is a little below Myers but he is only 1 year from UFA. Detroit would have to add significantly.

Danny DeKeyser is a closer match. He is currently an unsigned RFA so a less attractive contract position. I'm pretty sure Detroit fans would insist that DDK is significantly better than Myers and therefore we should add. The figures do not bear that out however.

Contract status considered I would say that Detroit should add a bit. I'm not sure that correcting the L/R balance would be enough incentive for Detroit to do this but add in the relative contract status and they should do this straight up. Don't think they would but they should.

Anaheim is another team with a lot of LHD. The Ducks don't care much about cap. It is actual $$$ they are most concerned with. That should make Myers' contract all the more attractive to them. Cam Fowler is the most likely fit.

Once again the numbers seem to favour Myers but widely held perception says that the Jets should add. Anaheim would need some incentive beyond L/R balance to get them interested in this. IDK if the $$$ saving from Myers' contract would do it or not. I suspect not but that is based on fan reaction not real GM reaction.

IMO those are comparable players we should be able to get for Myers without throwing in Dano or Armia. None of them are expansion exempt though. I would prefer to get an exempt younger player or prospect. The purpose of that is to be able to protect Dano and Armia so it doesn't make sense to include them in the deal.

Those deals still leave the Jets with 4 defensemen to protect for the expansion draft. The trick is to get an exempt LHD for Myers...

 

[northendninja]

So Columbus gets the best player (Laine) we exchange prospects (relatively even slight plus to Werenski) plus we take on a cap dump that has a NMC?

How is this good for the Jets?

this is in lieu of just drafting pullilarvi at second.. why wouldnt you want to improve the prospect pool in the process? Werenski is a blue chip prospect ready to make the jump. Upside is top pairing D man.

If anything, I think Columbus would be a no to this.

 

[Aavco Cup]

this is in lieu of just drafting pullilarvi at second.. why wouldnt you want to improve the prospect pool in the process? Werenski is a blue chip prospect ready to make the jump. Upside is top pairing D man.

If anything, I think Columbus would be a no to this.

The Jets will make the #2 selection. I doubt they have any interest in adding Hartnell

 

[northendninja]

He has a NMC which means we have to expose a younger forward in expansion. we're helping Columbus out of a problem they have. IMO the Jets don't take that on without a premium

From what I gather from Lawless yesterday, you can ask that they waive the NMC for the Expansion draft... perhaps that would have to be agreed upon for the deal to work..

 

[northendninja]

The Jets will make the #2 selection. I doubt they have any interest in adding Hartnell

I think so too.. Im just suggesting that if they end up drafting Pool Party at 2, it was a mistake as they likely could have worked out something with Columbus, and gained some talent in the process.... yet still getting the guy they wanted.

 

[untouchable21]

From what I gather from Lawless yesterday, you can ask that they waive the NMC for the Expansion draft... perhaps that would have to be agreed upon for the deal to work..

Hartnell being okay with waiving his NMC for the expansion makes sense but if that were the case, why wouldn't he waive for Columbus and avoid a one season pit stop in Winnipeg?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I was thinking the same thing, Philly looked like a good trade partner in this situation we send Myers/Dano/Armia to them and take back one of there young LHD like Provorov or Sanheim maybe Morin but I don't know much about him.

To Philly
Myers
Armia

To Jets
Provorov
Streit/Macdonald (Some salary retained by flyers)
2nd round pick or maybe a swap of picks 18 and 22

Don't see why we take back Streit/MacDonald. If we have to take 1 make it Streit. He has only 1 year left.

Make it Myers for Sanheim + Streit. Half the reason we trade Myers is so we can protect Armia/Dano/etc. so including one of them in the trade doesn't make a lot of sense.

So Columbus gets the best player (Laine) we exchange prospects (relatively even slight plus to Werenski) plus we take on a cap dump that has a NMC?

How is this good for the Jets?

Concede that Laine>Pulju but the gap is not huge. I think you significantly undervalue Werenski. He easily covers the difference between the Finns and the addition of Roslovic. Werenski will be a top pair D, maybe a #1 D on a team that also has Trouba. He will almost certainly play in the NHL this year. Lastly moving Hartnell eases CBJ's cap problem but he is not a pure cap dump. He is still a very good player though he probably fades before his contract runs out.

IMO the gulf between the proposed 2015 prospects in this trade is huge. Werenski is really good and would easily be the best defender in the draft this year. He is as blue chip as a non #1 overall gets.

2016 2OA
Roslovic

for

2016 3OA
Werenski


tempting.

More than tempting.

But where's the premium for taking the Hartnell cap dump. Your proposal is better than the original one

The premium is in Werenski. If he were in this years' draft he would probably be a strong third OA.

That's very interesting offer, heck if we could fit it in the cap I would take on Hartnell to make it work.

Depends entirely on how the two GM's view the two Finns. I'm still not sold on the Jets 100% selecting Laine. But either one will be good

I think it is pretty clear that Laine is the better of the 2 Finns but I don't think the gap is huge. Hartnell is worth his contract right now. The only question is how long that will continue to be the case. He has 3 years left at 4.75 AAV though the real salary drops to 3 in the last year.

IMO we win this trade although there is risk in it. I don't think CBJ would do it even with the sweetener of moving Hartnells cap hit but it would depend on how desperate they are for the cap space.

 

[Aavco Cup]

The premium is in Werenski. If he were in this years' draft he would probably be a strong third OA

I see that as the premium to move up from 3 to 2. But it's not enough for the cap dump. We keep Roslovic and I'd say there is a deal Chevy might consider.

Jets trade #2

Jackets trade #3 + Werenski + cap dump

 

[JetsHomer]

He has a NMC which means we have to expose a younger forward in expansion. we're helping Columbus out of a problem they have. IMO the Jets don't take that on without a premium

If Hartnell chooses to waive his NMC, why would the team adding him choose to honour it when they don't have to?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He has a NMC which means we have to expose a younger forward in expansion. we're helping Columbus out of a problem they have. IMO the Jets don't take that on without a premium

Good point AC. First he would have to waive for the trade. Would that not kill the NMC? If the NMC carries over I would either want to leave out Hartnell or get a sweetener.

If we are getting Werenski we can much more easily move Myers. The range of acceptable returns is much wider. Then we can protect 3 + 7 so there is room for Hartnell if necessary. Alternatively we expose Myers. We could simply accept him as our expansion loss (not my first choice) or pay LV to take someone else.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Those deals still leave the Jets with 4 defensemen to protect for the expansion draft. The trick is to get an exempt LHD for Myers...

See the last paragraph in my post.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Good point AC. First he would have to waive for the trade. Would that not kill the NMC? If the NMC carries over I would either want to leave out Hartnell or get a sweetener.

If we are getting Werenski we can much more easily move Myers. The range of acceptable returns is much wider. Then we can protect 3 + 7 so there is room for Hartnell if necessary. Alternatively we expose Myers. We could simply accept him as our expansion loss (not my first choice) or pay LV to take someone else.

it's in effect now. It stays.

It's different than Myers who was traded before it took effect.

 

[Aavco Cup]

If Hartnell chooses to waive his NMC, why would the team adding him choose to honour it when they don't have to?

They only have that option for players who have not yet earned their NMC/NTC status. A player Hartnell's age is different than when we acquired Myers. Once the clause is in effect it must be honoured. Myers was not yet in effect

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think so too.. Im just suggesting that if they end up drafting Pool Party at 2, it was a mistake as they likely could have worked out something with Columbus, and gained some talent in the process.... yet still getting the guy they wanted.

I like the trade even if the Jets still prefer Laine which I'm assuming they do. The gap between the 2 Finns is small enough to make this a good trade for us. The fact you can consider the possibility of the Jets preferring Pool Party supports this.
Laine > Puljujarvi
Werenski >>> Roslovic
Hartnell is a sweetener to get CBJ to go for it.

 

[northendninja]

They only have that option for players who have not yet earned their NMC/NTC status. A player Hartnell's age is different than when we acquired Myers. Once the clause is in effect it must be honoured. Myers was not yet in effect

Ah, because on 1290 they were saying it would be possible to ask Toby to waive his NMC.. but then things may get awkward if Vegas didnt select him...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I see that as the premium to move up from 3 to 2. But it's not enough for the cap dump. We keep Roslovic and I'd say there is a deal Chevy might consider.

Jets trade #2

Jackets trade #3 + Werenski + cap dump

I reiterate that I think you are undervaluing Werenski. I think you may also be overvaluing Roslovic IMO. Nothing against him but he is a long way below the other 3 players in this conversation. Even with him included I suspect CBJ is the one to turn this down. You are also considering Hartnell as nothing but a cap dump. That is just wrong. CBJ wouldn't be looking to move him if they weren't in such a bad cap position.

Give 1 year for our young players to gain experience and hope that Hartnell doesn't fall off a cliff just yet:
Ehlers - Scheifele - Wheeler
Hartnell - Little - Pulju
Connor - Perreault - Dano
Lowry/Petan - Burmi/Copp - Armia

Enstrom - Buff
Werenski - Trouba
Morrissey - Myers

Bucky
Hutch

If Bucky comes through that is not only a playoff team, it is a contender.

If Hartnell regresses faster than that then Connor plays 2LW and he moves to 3LW. If Myers is moved or lost to expansion then Postma is an adequate replacement. Still a good playoff team.

With Pav gone in 1 year, Enstrom in 2 and Hartnell in 3 the cap situation is still very manageable.

 

[mcpw]

Werenski would go AT LEAST #4 this draft. Possibly #3.

 

[northendninja]

Give 1 year for our young players to gain experience and hope that Hartnell doesn't fall off a cliff just yet:
Ehlers - Scheifele - Wheeler
Hartnell - Little - Pulju
Connor - Perreault - Dano
Lowry/Petan - Burmi/Copp - Armia

Enstrom - Buff
Werenski - Trouba
Morrissey - Myers

Bucky
Hutch

.

fantastic lineup IMO, really solidifies our D... I also believe Hartsy still has some gas left in the tank, moreso than alot of the other cap dumps you see being shopped/moved around.

 

[Hunter368]

Good points guys

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

it's in effect now. It stays.

It's different than Myers who was traded before it took effect.

Yes, understood but is there not also a provision whereby waiving the clause once nullifies it in the future? I'm not at all sure of that but it is what I remember having heard in the past. If not then there are other ways around the problem as I stated in my earlier post. It would be a significant issue though.

 

[Gil Fisher]

I like the trade even if the Jets still prefer Laine which I'm assuming they do. The gap between the 2 Finns is small enough to make this a good trade for us. The fact you can consider the possibility of the Jets preferring Pool Party supports this.
Laine > Puljujarvi
Werenski >>> Roslovic
Hartnell is a sweetener to get CBJ to go for it.

I'm with Aavco, it's either Roslovic or Hartnell in the deal, not both.

 

[portamoral]

undervaluing werenski? how about you guys are undervaluing laine. there couldn't be a bigger gap between him and puljujaarvi. laine is on par with matthews. there are two no.1 overall talents this year just like last year. chevy needs to stay at 2 and make the damn pick

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I'd do

2 plus Roslovic for 3 plus one of Murray or Werenski plus Harntell in a second

How wouldnt anyone. I mean, i don't think the gap between Laine and Puljujarvi is a huge as people like to think it is... plus we get a much needed LHD...

It's a win win really.

Puljujarvi plus one of Murray or Werenksi helps this team more than Laine does on his own.

LHD is such a need it would be crazy to pass up something like that.

 

[northendninja]

undervaluing werenski? how about you guys are undervaluing laine. there couldn't be a bigger gap between him and puljujaarvi. laine is on par with matthews. there are two no.1 overall talents this year just like last year. chevy needs to stay at 2 and make the damn pick

I hope he stays at 2 and takes Laine... I think he has to.. if he doesnt and Laine proves to be a 30 goal scorer + instantly, Chevy will have committed career suicide. There is very little risk to him and his career by taking Laine. Even if Laine doesnt turn out to be as good as predicted.

 

[Rheged]

You guys talking about Werenski going 3/4 as a 17 or 18 year old? Cause McAvoy's season was more impressive and he's not even a consensus top-10 guy..