Jets Advanced Stats thread

[jamiebez]

just to piggy back off this a bit i know this was posted in a diff thread (off topic) but keep it in stats related.... i know dom gets labeled as a Jets hater for some reason. wonder if ppl labeled him as a fan-boy previously? as he picked the Jets to win the cup in 17-18 prior to the PO's, and as a top team in previous years .

just looking at his projections over the years

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Proj Pts[/TD]
[TD]Proj Finish[/TD]
[TD]Actual Pts[/TD]
[TD]Actual Finish[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2016-2017[/TD]

[TD]

90​

[/TD]

[TD]

18​

[/TD]

[TD]

87​

[/TD]

[TD]

t-20​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2017-2018[/TD]

[TD]

100​

[/TD]

[TD]

6​

[/TD]

[TD]

114​

[/TD]

[TD]

2​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2018-2019[/TD]

[TD]

100​

[/TD]

[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]

99​

[/TD]

[TD]

t-10​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2019-2020[/TD]

[TD]

92​

[/TD]

[TD]

17​

[/TD]

[TD]

92​

[/TD]

[TD]

20​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]North Division (in-division finish)[/TD]

[TD]

61​

[/TD]

[TD]

t-5​

[/TD]

[TD]

63​

[/TD]

[TD]

3​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2021-2022[/TD]

[TD]

94​

[/TD]

[TD]

15​

[/TD]

[TD]

89​

[/TD]

[TD]

19​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Average (Non North-Div years)[/TD]

[TD]

95​

[/TD]

[TD]

12​

[/TD]

[TD]

96​

[/TD]

[TD]

14​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

North Division finishes based on just standings in the division
19-20 proj 82 gp points

really, it's not far off. he underestimated their 17-18 season quite a bit. Maybe the change from Mason to Helle as a starter had a ton to do with it, and then KC called up full time ofc as neither were starters to begin the year. but the average of projected vs actual is nearly spot-on.

I believe I remember reading that his model changed from using shot attempts (Corsi/Fenwick) to using expected goals sometime about 2018-2019. That is when a lot of analytics types began to sour on the Jets.

Apparently, Scheifele/Wheeler do pretty well on the shot attempt +/- but much less so on expected goals, which also measure shot location and other stuff.

(I am way too lazy to go and check this, but this feels like the kind of thread where someone will correct me very shortly )

 

[DRW204]

I believe I remember reading that his model changed from using shot attempts (Corsi/Fenwick) to using expected goals sometime about 2018-2019. That is when a lot of analytics types began to sour on the Jets.

Apparently, Scheifele/Wheeler do pretty well on the shot attempt +/- but much less so on expected goals, which also measure shot location and other stuff.

(I am way too lazy to go and check this, but this feels like the kind of thread where someone will correct me very shortly )

regardless if it changed or not, his projection vs where they actually finished since 18-19 is pretty close.

maybe he got access to the nhl or team's tracking info so that resulted in the change in criteria?

 

[Weezeric]

The Jets are now last in the league at 5v5 shooting percentage. 33 xGoals and 24 actual goals.

As a comparable, the Stars are first and score on almost twice as many shots as the Jets do. 37 xGoals vs 47 actual.

That’s a huge disparity at this point in the year.

 

[voyageur]

The Jets are now last in the league at 5v5 shooting percentage. 33 xGoals and 24 actual goals.

As a comparable, the Stars are first and score on almost twice as many shots as the Jets do. 37 xGoals vs 47 actual.

That’s a huge disparity at this point in the year.

What would you attribute that to? Stars are one of the highest scoring teams in the league (2nd), with a mediocre shots per game output (19th,), giving them the league's best shooting %. Jets are generating a sufficient amount of shots, but not capitalizing.

I still like the defensive stats that matter, 3rd in the league in GAA, 3rd in league in PK%.

Seems like 5 on 5 this team is not going to be able to run and gun at all, take 3 players out of the top 9 that was already thin to begin, and it's amazing the team is where they are. Other than the Scheifele-Connor duo where's the shooters?

 

[CorgisPer60]

We saw the same thing out of the Stars last year, though. They had one line that was scoring, and the rest trying to not make mistakes.

That's a ridiculous disparity. Look at it. Let's compare:

It's still early in the season, but the trends are there.

 

[Weezeric]

What would you attribute that to? Stars are one of the highest scoring teams in the league (2nd), with a mediocre shots per game output (19th,), giving them the league's best shooting %. Jets are generating a sufficient amount of shots, but not capitalizing.

I still like the defensive stats that matter, 3rd in the league in GAA, 3rd in league in PK%.

Seems like 5 on 5 this team is not going to be able to run and gun at all, take 3 players out of the top 9 that was already thin to begin, and it's amazing the team is where they are. Other than the Scheifele-Connor duo where's the shooters?

I think it’s mostly luck. Probably a bit of it is the lack of shooting talent on the Jets right now, especially among the forward group, with a bit being the offensive schemes.

 

[JetsFan815]

We saw the same thing out of the Stars last year, though. They had one line that was scoring, and the rest trying to not make mistakes.

View attachment 610412

That's a ridiculous disparity. Look at it. Let's compare:

View attachment 610413

It's still early in the season, but the trends are there.

Well I see the PLD line out there making tons of mistakes while not scoring so there goes that theory

 

[DRW204]

I think it’s mostly luck. Probably a bit of it is the lack of shooting talent on the Jets right now, especially among the forward group, with a bit being the offensive schemes.

robertson is playing at an absurd level right now. their top line is the best in the league. Robertson alone is +5 in actual-goals vs expected (at 5v5) which is 50% of the total team discrepancy between the two. he ~+8 last year, and ~+5 the year before. i do think he'll cool down a bit but would not be surprised if he and that line capitalize on their chances at a higher rate than average based on how they've trended the past couple years.

this year alone: sheesh

just to put in vs a Jets POV

 

[JetsFan815]

This is a shocking stat to me. Pionk's xGAR this season is in the top 91.6 percentile among all players (94.6% among all D). To my eye there is so much chaos in his game that is good offensively and bad defensively but to my eye he is not as much of a net positive as this metric suggests. I don't think xGAR/GAR adjust for linemates so probably benefiting some from playing with Morrissey and Scheifele but still surprising.

 

[tbcwpg]

Apparently, since Nov 1, the Jets are at 55.1% for expected goals percentage (expected for less expected against). I'm sure at the same point last year the Jets were riding a string of good luck for their record so that's a positive towards the Jets being a playoff team this year.

 

[Gm0ney]

This is a shocking stat to me. Pionk's xGAR this season is in the top 91.6 percentile among all players (94.6% among all D). To my eye there is so much chaos in his game that is good offensively and bad defensively but to my eye he is not as much of a net positive as this metric suggests. I don't think xGAR/GAR adjust for linemates so probably benefiting some from playing with Morrissey and Scheifele but still surprising.


View attachment 612688

This must be some weird small sample thing?

Pionk seems to have the highest EVO.GAR in the league - the highest even-strength goals above replacement...but he's only got 4 even strength goals (6th among NHL defensemen, 9th in defensemen G/60), his ixG is 88th if we're looking at expected goals. 18 goals scored for the Jets while he's been on the ice at even strength (47th among defensemen, 55th in GF/60)...63rd in on-ice xGF/60. All those ranks are just defensemen who've played at least 250 minutes. I just can't wrap my head around how Pionk has such a high EVO.GAR.

Erik Karlsson has been on the ice for 35 of the Sharks 54 even strength goals-for (65%). 10 of those 35 are his goals (29%). Pionk's been on for 18 of the Jets 38 (47%). 4/18 are his goals (22%). And Karlsson isn't even on this list! What in the...?

 

[JetsFan815]

This must be some weird small sample thing?

Pionk seems to have the highest EVO.GAR in the league - the highest even-strength goals above replacement...but he's only got 4 even strength goals (6th among NHL defensemen, 9th in defensemen G/60), his ixG is 88th if we're looking at expected goals. 18 goals scored for the Jets while he's been on the ice at even strength (47th among defensemen, 55th in GF/60)...63rd in on-ice xGF/60. All those ranks are just defensemen who've played at least 250 minutes. I just can't wrap my head around how Pionk has such a high EVO.GAR.

Erik Karlsson has been on the ice for 35 of the Sharks 54 even strength goals-for (65%). 10 of those 35 are his goals (29%). Pionk's been on for 18 of the Jets 38 (47%). 4/18 are his goals (22%). And Karlsson isn't even on this list! What in the...?

Yeah but it is almost 20 games, I was pretty shocked when I saw this metric. I do see Karlsson and Adam Fox ahead of him in EVO.GAR but no one other than that. I expected Morrissey to be up there (and he is) but Pionk I'd have wagered him to be in the 60s at best. I wonder if JFresh's model also has him this high in this metric (I don't think he is splitting results for this season yet, will check when he does in a few games). It's hilarious that the only d-men ahead of him are mostly legit top-pairing d-men types other than Zadorov and Hronek who also seem to be producing great results and Pionk is playing top pairing minutes so QoC is not in question

@garret9 do you have any ideas about this mystery?

 

[JetsFan815]

Apparently, since Nov 1, the Jets are at 55.1% for expected goals percentage (expected for less expected against). I'm sure at the same point last year the Jets were riding a string of good luck for their record so that's a positive towards the Jets being a playoff team this year.

The only xGF% game where they have been under 50% in Nov is the Pittsburgh game.

 

[garret9]

Yeah but it is almost 20 games, I was pretty shocked when I saw this metric. I do see Karlsson and Adam Fox ahead of him in EVO.GAR but no one other than that. I expected Morrissey to be up there (and he is) but Pionk I'd have wagered him to be in the 60s at best. I wonder if JFresh's model also has him this high in this metric (I don't think he is splitting results for this season yet, will check when he does in a few games). It's hilarious that the only d-men ahead of him are mostly legit top-pairing d-men types other than Zadorov and Hronek who also seem to be producing great results and Pionk is playing top pairing minutes so QoC is not in question

View attachment 612786

@garret9 do you have any ideas about this mystery?

Blend of GAR and xGAR is better than just GAR, but ya GAR info can be found here:

Wins Above Replacement: The Process (Part 2)

In part 1, we covered WAR in hockey and baseball, discussed each field’s prior philosophies, and cemented the goals for our own WAR model. This part will be devoted to the process – how we assign v…

hockey-graphs.com

 

[DRW204]

min 80 mins played together the new top line

bit of PDO bender so far (15%+ on ice SH%, and 950+ on ice sv%) but take it fwiw

 

[RabidOne]

min 80 mins played together the new top line

bit of PDO bender so far (15%+ on ice SH%, and 950+ on ice sv%) but take it fwiw
View attachment 617764

How happy are the Canucks that they got rid of Mcann? Or Florida... or Pittsburgh.

 

[DRW204]

Id have Dahlin ahead of Hronek, but Hronek is having a fantastic year.

 

[JetsFan815]

Once the results of this Chicago game are added the Jets will be over 50% in xGoal % on the season in the EvolvingWild model for the first time since Game 2. Two tough opponents coming up in Washington and esp Vegas so not sure how long that will last. If they are still over 50% on Wednesday morning that'd be a win.

 

[garret9]

I started writing again with a blog/newsletter (The Five Hohl)... with some content free and some paid subscription only.
I've already done 3 free articles, all of which about advanced analytics and the Jets so far.

 

[JetsFan815]

Since Nov 1st when Rick Bowness rejoined the Jets after covid, the Jets are 54.25% xGoals (6th best in the league).

On the PK they are tied for 6th best in Expected Goals Against/60 and 4th best in Actual Goals/60.

Some of these numbers might fall over the next month with injuries but they have been a very good team in the Bones era and give some cause for optimism when we are hopefully at full health in late Jan with Ehlers, Wheeler and Schmidt back.

 

[JetsFan815]

Arniel and Bowness deserve a lot of credit for the PK. Jets PK ranked league wide in various metrics:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Goals Against/60[/TD]
[TD]Exp Goals Against/60[/TD]
[TD]Corsi Against/60[/TD]
[TD]Shots Against/60[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Noel Era[/TD]
[TD]25th[/TD]
[TD]29th[/TD]
[TD]22nd[/TD]
[TD]21st[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Maurice Era[/TD]
[TD]25th[/TD]
[TD]31st[/TD]
[TD]30th[/TD]
[TD]29th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lowry Era[/TD]
[TD]20th[/TD]
[TD]31st[/TD]
[TD]25th[/TD]
[TD]29th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bowness Era[/TD]
[TD]6th[/TD]
[TD]10th[/TD]
[TD]12th[/TD]
[TD]9th[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

They have gone from being arguably the worst PK in the league in chances against where the PK was a shooting gallery to being top 10.

The common denominator across all those coaches prior to this season is Charlie Huddy who was supposedly largely responsible for the PK those seasons. Comparing the aggregate records:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Goals Against/60[/TD]
[TD]Exp Goals Against/60[/TD]
[TD]Corsi Against/60[/TD]
[TD]Shots Against/60[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Huddy Era (2011-2022)[/TD]
[TD]28th[/TD]
[TD]31st[/TD]
[TD]29th[/TD]
[TD]29th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Arniel/Bowness era[/TD]
[TD]6th[/TD]
[TD]10th[/TD]
[TD]12th[/TD]
[TD]9th[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Of all the things about the Jets organization, this has to be the most damning, that somehow the Jets PK was allowed to be consistently one of the worst in the league over the course of an entire decade without anything being done about it. Even worse when you consider that the Jets were "contending" during a large part of that window. Jets now have a much better PK with essentially the same personnel other than supporting characters (and the coaching group before this was enshrined for a long time and had the chance to pick their personnel).

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Since Nov 1st when Rick Bowness rejoined the Jets after covid, the Jets are 54.25% xGoals (6th best in the league).

On the PK they are tied for 6th best in Expected Goals Against/60 and 4th best in Actual Goals/60.

Some of these numbers might fall over the next month with injuries but they have been a very good team in the Bones era and give some cause for optimism when we are hopefully at full health in late Jan with Ehlers, Wheeler and Schmidt back.

Many of us here, and a number of hockey pundits, saw last year's Jets roster as being very strong and were certainly predicting playoffs and perhaps a deeper run. The team was much better than the result. That has been the case for a few years now, but particularly obvious last season after the acquisitions of Dillon and Schmidt to address softness in the D. The clown show that was Paul Maurice and his buddy Huddy are now gone. Thankfully, Maurice fired himself and has taken what he is best at, losing, to South Florida where more and more people are calling for his head. In the mean time, the Jets are thriving. The difference in the team between this year and last are a couple of near league minimum guys that are doing their job in systems that work. And we have spent the majority of the year with more than our fair share of injured starters. Just a couple more examples as to why the new new coaching regime deserves a pat on the back.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

Many of us here, and a number of hockey pundits, saw last year's Jets roster as being very strong and were certainly predicting playoffs and perhaps a deeper run. The team was much better than the result. That has been the case for a few years now, but particularly obvious last season after the acquisitions of Dillon and Schmidt to address softness in the D. The clown show that was Paul Maurice and his buddy Huddy are now gone. Thankfully, Maurice fired himself and has taken what he is best at, losing, to South Florida where more and more people are calling for his head. In the mean time, the Jets are thriving. The difference in the team between this year and last are a couple of near league minimum guys that are doing their job in systems that work. And we have spent the majority of the year with more than our fair share of injured starters. Just a couple more examples as to why the new new coaching regime deserves a pat on the back.

Imagine if Maurice would have ridden out his contract...

 

[Weezeric]

Since Nov 1st when Rick Bowness rejoined the Jets after covid, the Jets are 54.25% xGoals (6th best in the league).

On the PK they are tied for 6th best in Expected Goals Against/60 and 4th best in Actual Goals/60.

Some of these numbers might fall over the next month with injuries but they have been a very good team in the Bones era and give some cause for optimism when we are hopefully at full health in late Jan with Ehlers, Wheeler and Schmidt back.

That’s very impressive considering the injuries.

 

[JetsFan815]

@garret9 posted microstats from tracking the first half of the season on his substack :

Microstats: Winnipeg Jets performance with transitioning the puck

Since the start of the season, I’ve been tracking scoring chances, zone exits, and zone entries for Winnipeg Jets games. I conducted this tracking for my own ammusment and intrigue, but also to produce some real value added for those with paid subscriptions.

thefivehohl.substack.com

It confirms my eyetest, Big Sak has not been good. Would not be on my playoff healthy lineup unless he improves between now and then.

I disagree about Pionk though, I think at the end of the day he adds more to the team than he gives away in his own end. The fact that his season has been so up and down (terrible October, great November, terrible December, great January so far) leaves me with some hope that he can minimize the d-zone mishaps and be a net positive contributor.