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Jets Advanced Stats thread

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SLAYER said:
Our special teams are straight f***in' trash right now.
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i have more faith in the PP turning around than the PK. there's to many good offensive players on this team for the PP to be this underwhelming.

PK on the other hand i have no idea how they fix it.

personnel (skaters) change yearly, and in terms of chances/shots given up, the Jets are commonly found bottom-10 in the league. Asides from 17-18, and the North Division year, the Jets PK has been bad every year since Maurice has been here
 
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DRW204 said:
i have more faith in the PP turning around than the PK. there's to many good offensive players on this team for the PP to be this underwhelming.

PK on the other hand i have no idea how they fix it.

personnel (skaters) change yearly, and in terms of chances/shots given up, the Jets are commonly found bottom-10 in the league. Asides from 17-18, and the North Division year, the Jets PK has been bad every year since Maurice has been here
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Yeah, our Offense will come I have no doubt.

I was really hoping the PK would be at least as solid as last year. Hopefully they get their stuff together!
 
DRW204 said:
i have more faith in the PP turning around than the PK. there's to many good offensive players on this team for the PP to be this underwhelming.

PK on the other hand i have no idea how they fix it.

personnel (skaters) change yearly, and in terms of chances/shots given up, the Jets are commonly found bottom-10 in the league. Asides from 17-18, and the North Division year, the Jets PK has been bad every year since Maurice has been here[/QUOTE]
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The PK is a prime example of where a stubborn insistence on a specific structure that may or may not suit the available personnel + the reliance of vets and PK role players over some quick, skilled and well-trained younger players who have played special teams on the Moose and succeeded (Harkins, Ves, Gus, and on and on) has really hurt us.

IMO, and as I've noted in the Moose threads for a while now, there is absolutely no reason why the Jets can't play a Moose-style aggressive PK that puts pressure on the point and the half-wall and forces a ton of turnovers as well as flubbed and perimeter shots, while generating a decent number of SH chances also. Even if you don't follow the Moose, the differences between their special teams execution and the Jets is glaring -- and heavily in the Moose's favour. It's the same systems, so the disparity in success is down to personnel/ deployment, player buy-in or coaching, I guess. But it's persistent and it's ugly.
 
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It’s been 3 years and I still don’t know what the Jets are trying to accomplish on the PK. The only observable strategy is to let Helle do everything. Their structure and approach are brutal.

They have the personnel to be quick and aggressive, as well as get in lanes to block shots. They also have the D personnel to play harder gaps at the blue line, which they’ve done in other years they’ve had blue line depth.

There really is no excuse for it to have been so epically bad for this long.
 
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Ducky10 said:
It’s been 3 years and I still don’t know what the Jets are trying to accomplish on the PK. The only observable strategy is to let Helle do everything. Their structure and approach are brutal.

They have the personnel to be quick and aggressive, as well as get in lanes to block shots. They also have the D personnel to play harder gaps at the blue line, which they’ve done in other years they’ve had blue line depth.

There really is no excuse for it to have been so epically bad for this long.
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I do think the PK is much better and aggressive from the defensive blueline forward, they do try to make aggressive stands at the defenisve blue line and challenge the puck carrier before zone entries. The problem is that ones the opposition PP unit takes the zone, they just fall right back and let the other team move the puck around however they wish with little pressure.

Also insane how bad they are clearing the front of the net in front of Helle on the PK. If you are gonna play that passive in your own... atleast box out guys from the netfront areas.
 
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After literally decades of research and mathematical computations and equations so complex it would take me pages to map it all out I've discovered something so incredibly radical that it must be a trick of the mind.

As incredible as it seems the team that scores the most goals never seem to lose. I'm sure there are outliers and pundits will prove me wrong but I am going to stand by my research.:naughty:


G Jets go.
 
JetsFan815 said:
I do think the PK is much better and aggressive from the defensive blueline forward, they do try to make aggressive stands at the defenisve blue line and challenge the puck carrier before zone entries. The problem is that ones the opposition PP unit takes the zone, they just fall right back and let the other team move the puck around however they wish with little pressure.

Also insane how bad they are clearing the front of the net in front of Helle on the PK. If you are gonna play that passive in your own... atleast box out guys from the netfront areas.
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It’s still nowhere near consistent enough in defending the blue line, but yes they have shown some effort in that area at least. Net front completely baffles me. They pretty much concede it.
 
Not strictly Jets related, but a very interesting piece about publically-available stats models and how they differ in some key respects:

Comparing public expected goal models: How they work and what we should take away from them

When it comes to measuring offense, we know shots aren’t created equally — that’s the criticism of focusing on just shot share, even though there is predictiveness to Corsi. Scoring chances, in theory, are a solution to better measuring quality in addition to quantity. But there are holes there too, from consistency in how scoring chances are considered, to shot location being just one more piece to the puzzle.

When evaluating the ‘danger’ to a shot, there’s quite a few factors to consider in addition to shot location. That’s what expected goal models attempt to do.
But in the public sphere, there’s more than one model floating around — and more than one method of calculating the metric. The four ‘core’ models are those of HockeyViz, MoneyPuck, Evolving-Hockey, and NaturalStatTrick.

So, let’s take a closer look at some of the core expected goal models in the public sphere, and dive into what those factor in and why they feature certain metrics.
 
through 30+ games, was curious to see how we rate among the league in the defensive stats (CA, xGA, xGA per CA), and the accompanying GA.... all per 60 at 5v5.

have 19-20 and '21. '21 is an anomaly set of opponents and schedule, hence why i included the previous 2 years.... not much has changed anyway.

SeasonGPCA/60 rankGA/60 rankxga/60 rankxga/ca rank
Winnipeg Jets19-207120102930
Winnipeg Jets20215621112726
Winnipeg Jets21-223116112930
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
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DRW204 said:
through 30+ games, was curious to see how we rate among the league in the defensive stats (CA, xGA, xGA per CA), and the accompanying GA.... all per 60 at 5v5.

have 19-20 and '21. '21 is an anomaly set of opponents and schedule, hence why i included the previous 2 years.... not much has changed anyway.

SeasonGPCA/60 rankGA/60 rankxga/60 rankxga/ca rank
Winnipeg Jets19-207120102930
Winnipeg Jets20215621112726
Winnipeg Jets21-223116112930
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
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Will be interesting to revisit this at end of season
 
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saw this earlier....



FJAGoqOWQAEimTV
 
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DRW204 said:
Colorado's huge defense group composing of absolute top-4 behemoth's of Sam Girard, Cale Makar, Devon Toews & Ryan Murray rating as the best in the league.
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You don't need size to prevent zone entries, you need positioning, speed and forward back pressure.

That tells me just as much about our forwards play in the nz as it does our dmen.
 
surixon said:
You don't need size to prevent zone entries, you need positioning, speed and forward back pressure.

That tells me just as much about our forwards play in the nz as it does our dmen.
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lol i know. was a tongue-in-cheek comment.
 
surixon said:
Yeah I know but you have been picking on our bigger less effective dmen lately.

Maybe Samberg will show something tonight.
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coincidental..... dillon and stanley have been arguably our 2 worst dmen this season, they just happen to be bigger than our better guys like morrissey or schmidt or demelo.
 
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DRW204 said:
coincidental..... dillon and stanley have been arguably our 2 worst dmen this season, they just happen to be bigger than our better guys like morrissey or schmidt or demelo.
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Just need a system - cycle the puck and play zone D...

Good analysis of Bednar... Roy played a chip and chase style much like Maurice - high event high risk - very little puck control

Bednar must fix Avalanche’s disproportionately poor defence - TSN.ca

Bednar's scheme

System Sheets: COL 2019-20
 
Many have been wondering how "real" the Jets are. There are question marks that stem from OT wins and the fact that they were 9-3-3 last season before it all came crashing down.

I compared the opponents during the 9-3-3 run last season to the first 14 games of this season to calculate the expected Corsi for the Jets during that period as proxy of difficulty of schedule.

Jets Expected Corsi (lower = harder schedule)

2021 first 15 games: 51.46 (actual corsi 52.80)
2022 first 14 games: 49.87 (actual corsi 49.44)

Their schedule has been undoutably much harder so far this season than during the "mirage stretch" last season.
 
JetsFan815 said:
Many have been wondering how "real" the Jets are. There are question marks that stem from OT wins and the fact that they were 9-3-3 last season before it all came crashing down.

I compared the opponents during the 9-3-3 run last season to the first 14 games of this season to calculate the expected Corsi for the Jets during that period as proxy of difficulty of schedule.

Jets Expected Corsi (lower = harder schedule)

2021 first 15 games: 51.46 (actual corsi 52.80)
2022 first 14 games: 49.87 (actual corsi 49.44)

Their schedule has been undoutably much harder so far this season than during the "mirage stretch" last season.
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Um, that's not a huge difference at all.

I can't find the average number of shot attempts per game but I did find the average number of shots on goal (63). Based on your numbers:

Last year the reams we played in the first 15 games were being outshot 32-31 on average

This year the teams we've played have been outshoothing teams 32-31

One time I actually broke down the difference eof a 55%CF player and a 45%CF and it came down to being on the ice for one extra shot attempt a certain way every 11 shifts. It's f*** all. And thats a huge spread
 
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the Jets have really tightened up their defensive play the past couple weeks after a pretty lousy start. there's still room for improvement on offense, as they're goal-scoring rates at 5v5 is 28th for the year, and 17th at all-strengths. KC still hasn't score a single 5v5 goal yet, and then of course Ehlers being gone hurts too. so there should be some better days on offense for this team.

i dont think this will be a top-5 SH% team as they were during '16-'19. Bowness' team in Dallas was pretty poor in finishing, and WPG both last season and this season they've been pretty poor at 5v5 compared to the rest of the NHL (31st overall at sh%). better at all strengths though (21st overall).
 
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DRW204 said:
the Jets have really tightened up their defensive play the past couple weeks after a pretty lousy start. there's still room for improvement on offense, as they're goal-scoring at 5v5 is 28th for the year, and 17th at all-strengths. KC still hasn't score a single 5v5 goal yet, and then of course Ehlers being gone hurts too. so there should be some better days on offense for this team.

i dont think this will be a top-5 SH% team as they were during '16-'19. Bowness' team in Dallas was pretty poor in finishing, and WPG both last season and this season they've been pretty poor at 5v5 as well vs the rest of the NHL. better at all strengths though.
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I'm interested in seeing if there is an uptick there as the year progresses. I'm also not expecting a top 5 offensive team but I think they can get into the top half as they get more comfortable with the schemes. I think fixing the defense was always priority one this season.
 
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