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Since the start of the season, I’ve been tracking scoring chances, zone exits, and zone entries for Winnipeg Jets games. I conducted this tracking for my own ammusment and intrigue, but also to produce some real value added for those with paid subscriptions.
thefivehohl.substack.com
It confirms my eyetest, Big Sak has not been good. Would not be on my playoff healthy lineup unless he improves between now and then.
I disagree about Pionk though, I think at the end of the day he adds more to the team than he gives away in his own end. The fact that his season has been so up and down (terrible October, great November, terrible December, great January so far) leaves me with some hope that he can minimize the d-zone mishaps and be a net positive contributor.
yup. those 3 are holding it down pretty well on the defensive side.
looks like dillon's stats is back nline to his pre-Jets years, where as last year was a bit of a step down.
Demelo doing Demelo things defensively. still rates v well.
Samberg rates well, playing a pretty sheltered role, similar to stanley in the cdn division year. difference is, he is doing it sans demelo and allowing demelo to help the top-pair.
yup. those 3 are holding it down pretty well on the defensive side.
looks like dillon's stats is back nline to his pre-Jets years, where as last year was a bit of a step down.
Demelo doing Demelo things defensively. still rates v well.
Samberg rates well, playing a pretty sheltered role, similar to stanley in the cdn division year. difference is, he is doing it sans demelo and allowing demelo to help the top-pair.
I would add that the teams play (system / method - what ever you want to call it) is improved which has supported our D (most games).
Bones gets some of the credit -
That has been my thinking as well. Bones though needs to help his top 6 out with some wrinkles to the scheme in the offensive end. The point shot and crash the net may work for the bottom 6 but it doesn't work that amazingly for our top 6. Need more opening up of alot shots with movement.
3.15ish is the current NHL per game average of GF and xGF at all-strengths as of today. i don't think they have a rolling average anywhere unfortunately
Over the past 25 games the Jets are seventh in the NHL by xG%. My feelings are mixed on this metric, but I’ve been told that it’s predictive and takes a large sample size to be effective. So does this mean the Jets are actually a good team?
Over the past 25 games the Jets are seventh in the NHL by xG%. My feelings are mixed on this metric, but I’ve been told that it’s predictive and takes a large sample size to be effective. So does this mean the Jets are actually a good team?
Jets have been down chasing games a lot in the recent slump, so some of it is down to score effects (yes these metrics try to adjust for score effects but I don't think they are full successful). I'd say they are slightly above average team by these metrics but not as good as a recent sample would lead you to believe.
Over the past 25 games the Jets are seventh in the NHL by xG%. My feelings are mixed on this metric, but I’ve been told that it’s predictive and takes a large sample size to be effective. So does this mean the Jets are actually a good team?
they've had a few high shot-output games over the past 25 but i think the issue with this team is offensive-conversion (which many saw coming prior to the year) and recently, although not as grave, Helle took a step-back from his first-half play.
do you attribute finishing and goaltending mostly to luck like it seems like some tend to do?
I just wanted to chime in here to say The Guffman stat remains THE most notable stat in terms of team success. It was yet another year where all 16 playoff teams also had registered the top 16 stats in The Guffman index.
I discovered this stat back in March, 2019 and posted it on the general board. It was so irrefutable and dangerous to those hawking phony "advanced stats" like Corsi (and later, xGF and xGA) that this underground community convinced the authorities to bury the thread.
At risk to my personal safety, I will share The Guffman once more to this niche community. Copy and save these important words and share with those that you trust who won't turn you in to the local Advanced Stats militia.
Hey guys, Guffman here. I have been accused of being a caveman on my team forum because I don’t embrace a lot of these so-called advanced stats like Corsi. After much deliberation, I realized that advanced stats ARE the way of the future but the current advanced stats just are not advanced...
forums.hfboards.com
Hey guys, Guffman here.
I have been accused of being a caveman on my team forum because I don’t embrace a lot of these so-called advanced stats like Corsi. After much deliberation, I realized that advanced stats ARE the way of the future but the current advanced stats just are not advanced enough.
After months of careful study, I have come up with something called Goal Differential (aka The Guffman). Mere weeks after I released it privately, it is being quoted by the hockey elite.
How Goal Differential works is you takes goals scored and subtract goals against. The amazing thing about this calculation is that you can apply it at a game level as well as a longer duration of time.
Did you know that there is a 100% correlation between goal differential and winning % in any game you want to pick out? IT’S TRUE!
In the latest 31 Thoughts, arguably the best coach out there, Mike Babcock said this:
Earlier in his tenure, I asked Mike Babcock what he considers the most important statistic. Without hesitation, he replied, “Goal differential.”
Is there something to this madness? Let’s take a look at the current standings.
The top 8 seeded teams in the east also have the top eight goal differential in the conference. Is this an aberation? Let’s check out the west.
The top 8 seeded teams in the west ALSO have the top eight goal differential in their conference.
You know what guys? I think it’s safe to say, as proved out by stats, the goal differential is THE most important stat, whether you look at it at a game basis or overall for the entire season.
I just wanted to chime in here to say The Guffman stat remains THE most notable stat in terms of team success. It was yet another year where all 16 playoff teams also had registered the top 16 stats in The Guffman index.
I discovered this stat back in March, 2019 and posted it on the general board. It was so irrefutable and dangerous to those hawking phony "advanced stats" like Corsi (and later, xGF and xGA) that this underground community convinced the authorities to bury the thread.
At risk to my personal safety, I will share The Guffman once more to this niche community. Copy and save these important words and share with those that you trust who won't turn you in to the local Advanced Stats militia.
Hey guys, Guffman here. I have been accused of being a caveman on my team forum because I don’t embrace a lot of these so-called advanced stats like Corsi. After much deliberation, I realized that advanced stats ARE the way of the future but the current advanced stats just are not advanced...
forums.hfboards.com
Hey guys, Guffman here.
I have been accused of being a caveman on my team forum because I don’t embrace a lot of these so-called advanced stats like Corsi. After much deliberation, I realized that advanced stats ARE the way of the future but the current advanced stats just are not advanced enough.
After months of careful study, I have come up with something called Goal Differential (aka The Guffman). Mere weeks after I released it privately, it is being quoted by the hockey elite.
How Goal Differential works is you takes goals scored and subtract goals against. The amazing thing about this calculation is that you can apply it at a game level as well as a longer duration of time.
Did you know that there is a 100% correlation between goal differential and winning % in any game you want to pick out? IT’S TRUE!
In the latest 31 Thoughts, arguably the best coach out there, Mike Babcock said this:
Earlier in his tenure, I asked Mike Babcock what he considers the most important statistic. Without hesitation, he replied, “Goal differential.”
Is there something to this madness? Let’s take a look at the current standings.
The top 8 seeded teams in the east also have the top eight goal differential in the conference. Is this an aberation? Let’s check out the west.
The top 8 seeded teams in the west ALSO have the top eight goal differential in their conference.
You know what guys? I think it’s safe to say, as proved out by stats, the goal differential is THE most important stat, whether you look at it at a game basis or overall for the entire season.
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thefivehohl.substack.com
