Post-Game Talk: Jets 2 - Wild 1 in OT

[larmex99]

My take on Stanley is that it is far easier to make a mistake than it is to admit that you made a mistake. That would explain why he got that contract instead of a ticket to the KHL.

 

[KingBogo]

Anyone who has ever run a business and has had a rockstar employee with make certain concessions to make sure they don't lose them

This is also true if you are in a senior management position in a large organization, which is basically Chevy and Arniel. They know Schiefele and Connor win them far more games then they cost, so you put up with a couple warts because they can score goals consistently when the game is on the line. And winning is the bottom line.

 

[JetsFan815]

It is good when the tail wags the dog. Always a recipe to extract a lot of good out of that setup.

 

[Buffdog]

This is also true if you are in a senior management position in a large organization, which is basically Chevy and Arniel. They know Schiefele and Connor win them far more games then they cost, so you put up with a couple warts because they can score goals consistently when the game is on the line. And winning is the bottom line.

And they put asses in seats. It's still a business

It is good when the tail wags the dog. Always a recipe to extract a lot of good out of that setup.

Not sure who the tail is here? The players? They're actually the product, which kinda makes them the dog

 

[FFHockey]

A little under 13k

Tough weekend for Jets attendance...

Going head to head with final Bomber game plus the odd starting time on Sunday...a good chunk of people have their Thanksgiving dinner on Sunday. Not sure what time would have worked better on Sunday...or maybe there was never a good time for that game?

 

[scelaton]

My take, is it is a push back against those we don't seem to appreciate the pure visual enjoyment of elite offensive players. Scheifele and Connor basically just won us 2 hockey games with pure offensive skill, but for some that isn't good enough because those goals weren't 5-5. They have however scored 3 times at even strength, but that doesn't meet the test as it has to be 5-5. I was out at the lake for the weekend so I wasn't around here much, but more casual fans were buzzing about how exciting the wins were and talking about what great players Scheifele and Connor are. That is what will bring out fans. Winning hockey games with highlight reel goals.

Well, the pushback has been pretty classless at times, but in any case, who among us doesn't appreciate the bolded? It's the lowest hanging fruit for all hockey fans and we all love watching the highlight reel goals. But it'd be nice to see more tolerance of those who want to be more analytical or question the status quo. For example, what if we could get all the excitement we've gotten out of Connor 3v3, PP and 6v5 and even more 5v5, while lifting the second line? How much discontent do you think that would foment on the team and among fans?

As I said in my earlier post, I'm fine if they keep Scheif and Connor together for a while 5v5, to see if they can somehow remediate their past defensive woes. But if they do change up the lines, it should not be seen as punishment or disloyalty, but rather an opportunity for as many or more pretty goals, and fewer against.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Tough weekend for Jets attendance...

Going head to head with final Bomber game plus the odd starting time on Sunday...a good chunk of people have their Thanksgiving dinner on Sunday. Not sure what time would have worked better on Sunday...or maybe there was never a good time for that game?

People can simply not be a slave to the calendar. For example, our big Thanksgiving get-together will be this coming Saturday, because that's when it worked for everyone. Similarly, we have had Xmas dinners after New Year's. In all those years we had arena sellouts, did we never have to play a home game on a major holiday? That's just an excuse. As I believe is "the economy". The interest just isn't there. And it doesn't matter that Mr and Mrs October have stolen a couple of should-have-been losses while teams are still in extended pre-season mode. There are pros and cons to attending games at our arena, and the cons are winning. Yes, that is a double entendre.

 

[Jets 31]

Well, the pushback has been pretty classless at times, but in any case, who among us doesn't appreciate the bolded? It's the lowest hanging fruit for all hockey fans and we all love watching the highlight reel goals. But it'd be nice to see more tolerance of those who want to be more analytical or question the status quo. For example, what if we could get all the excitement we've gotten out of Connor 3v3, PP and 6v5 and even more 5v5, while lifting the second line? How much discontent do you think that would foment on the team and among fans?

As I said in my earlier post, I'm fine if they keep Scheif and Connor together for a while 5v5, to see if they can somehow remediate their past defensive woes. But if they do change up the lines, it should not be seen as punishment or disloyalty, but rather an opportunity for as many or more pretty goals, and fewer against.

But isn't Ehlers the one with the great analytics? To me he should be on the second line right now trying to get the second line going if that's the case. Again i don't care who plays where as long as we are playing pretty good and winning more games than losing.

 

[JetsFan815]

My take, is it is a push back against those we don't seem to appreciate the pure visual enjoyment of elite offensive players. Scheifele and Connor basically just won us 2 hockey games with pure offensive skill, but for some that isn't good enough because those goals weren't 5-5. They have however scored 3 times at even strength, but that doesn't meet the test as it has to be 5-5. I was out at the lake for the weekend so I wasn't around here much, but more casual fans were buzzing about how exciting the wins were and talking about what great players Scheifele and Connor are. That is what will bring out fans. Winning hockey games with highlight reel goals.

Not looking beyond the surface level is why those fans are "casuals" in the first place, not that there is anything wrong with that. Places like this are obviously not the places heavily dominated by "casual fans" though. 3 on 3, 6 on 5 (yes that's how stupid the ES stat is- 6 on 5 counts as "ES" on the websites you are looking this up) and 5 on 5 are fundamentally different situations, putting them all under the Even Strength blanket does little good to anyone. 75% of the game is played at 5 on 5, anyone who wants the Jets to succeed should rightfully be concerned if our best players are having trouble in that situation.

Last season many here were talking about the bad 5 on 5 play in the 2nd half of the season and similar arguments were used to defend that, look how that turned out in the playoffs.

I think top players will always lobby who the want to play with. I remember Buff never being shy about saying who he wanted to play with. We are 1-2 with out Schiefele and Helly. They are our 2 of our 4 biggest stars along with Morrissey and Connor and these guys will all get the coach's ear.

Buff was forced to play forward when he absolutely hated that lol. On the championship winning Penguins, Kessel wanted to play with Malkin and Sullivan told him to suck it up and play where he is told if he wants his 7 million a year. Matthews and Marner want to play with each and unlike our guys have great results when together, yet they are split apart every season.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Honestly what irritates me about the whole thing is that Ehlers is a stats darling and Scheifele + Connor are bashed as a pair. Although I agree 55 and 81 spend far too much time in their own zone, my eye test sees them doing more positive things and Ehlers negative that are actually driving results.

A bird in the hand etc.

And there's where the eye test betrays. Half a dozen or so years of very unadvanced stats (5v5 goal share) showing the opposite.

 

[Gil Fisher]

I love 55 and 81. They've scored our last six goals. These are facts. The goals are usually beautiful (almost a fact?).

They get outscored year after year, including -1 this year, at 5v5. This is also a fact.

I am personally hoping that the continuing development (and health) of Vilardi creates better 5v5 reults this year. Someone of great import in the organization does not like Ehlers on the right side of that line. (definitely not a fact)

 

[Jack7222]

My take, is it is a push back against those we don't seem to appreciate the pure visual enjoyment of elite offensive players. Scheifele and Connor basically just won us 2 hockey games with pure offensive skill, but for some that isn't good enough because those goals weren't 5-5. They have however scored 3 times at even strength, but that doesn't meet the test as it has to be 5-5. I was out at the lake for the weekend so I wasn't around here much, but more casual fans were buzzing about how exciting the wins were and talking about what great players Scheifele and Connor are. That is what will bring out fans. Winning hockey games with highlight reel goals.

I think it's more that casual fans come to the forum to have a nice time and sometimes someone who's being analytical about things is perceived a killjoy. Dunno if it has anything to do with Scheif / Connor per se; I like both these players but I'm sure many will tell you that the most exciting time to be a Jets fan in recent memory was last December when we dominated the league... and Connor wasn't even in the line up.

Connor's best season was also next to Dubois.

I don't like being a killjoy for sure, and don't think that there's anything 'wrong' with just enjoying the hockey. I am analytical though and kind of efficiency oriented and I just don't like to feel like our team is leaving points on the table by being too rigid, that's really all it comes down to.

And as for not wanting to piss off your stars so you can keep them, yeah, that is a fair point and I even think it is probably exactly what's going on. Unfortunately we are probably set to suffer from it as well with Ehlers this season.

 

[Jet]

I can't believe we have to wait til FRIDAY for our next game - and ofc I'll be heading on my next cruise so I'll have to book it to FLL to get to my hotel before puck drop. I maayyyyy have to ditch work early

 

[Jets 31]

Right now the 1st line is playing pretty good, the 3rd and 4th lines are playing very good, we get that second line scoring and the team is really good. That's alot of good.

 

[Jet]

Right now the 1st line is playing pretty good, the 3rd and 4th lines are playing very good, we get that second line scoring and the team is really good. That's alot of good.

I don't think you've heard but the first line is shit.

 

[WolfHouse]

My point is that bottom pairing/tweener dmen are a dime a dozen and not worth stressing over if we happen to lose one to waivers

Except i honestly believe we would have had a second pairing of samberg-kova... moot point now best just to prepare for the pionk extensipn

 

[Adam da bomb]

Except i honestly believe we would have had a second pairing of samberg-kova... moot point now best just to prepare for the pionk extensipn

Luckily mtl didn't exactly make us pay for it. Not like they then developed kov into something special or anything resembling more than a 3rd pairing.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I've liked what I have seen from Fleury - whether he can keep it up is still to be determined
Ville as a better option over Stan is TBD - he'll need to get into the lineup at some point to prove it.
regardless, it's nice to have options - and at some point, they'll need to decide what the bottom pairing will be
Or they'll play the hot hand or shuffle based on the competition - I can see them going with 8 D until they sort it out.

I expect 8 D while waiting for someone to seize the job. So far, it looks like Fleury is doing that, but it has only been 3 games. The 2 injured haven't had their chance yet.

If 2 of those LHD do well is Miller's job in danger? Could one of the lefties playing his off-side still be better than Miller?

I didn't realize how big of a dude Fleury was until that interview with him between periods yesterday. Always good to have a little size and strength on defense.

IF the size and strength come with mobility, which Fleury seems to bring.

 

[LowLefty]

I expect 8 D while waiting for someone to seize the job. So far, it looks like Fleury is doing that, but it has only been 3 games. The 2 injured haven't had their chance yet.

If 2 of those LHD do well is Miller's job in danger? Could one of the lefties playing his off-side still be better than Miller?

I'd think Miller is likely in there on the right side- he's not great in his end but good enough.
I can see them wanting a natural righty on that side if at all possible - plus I think they like his shot (if only he'd use it more).

This brings us to the left side and it might not be good news for Ville - I see them wanting more of a defensive dman along side Miller and Fleury / Stan offer more than what we have seen from Ville. IMO, it will come down to how much improvement has there been on Ville's defensive game - and I assume he'll get a chance to show them.

 

[JetsFan815]

I love 55 and 81. They've scored our last six goals. These are facts. The goals are usually beautiful (almost a fact?).

They get outscored year after year, including -1 this year, at 5v5. This is also a fact.

I am personally hoping that the continuing development (and health) of Vilardi creates better 5v5 reults this year. Someone of great import in the organization does not like Ehlers on the right side of that line. (definitely not a fact)

-2 at 5v5 so far. Last season there were only 4 teams whose top lines were worse in the GF/GA equation all bottom feeders- Sharks, Washington, Chicago and Seattle. Jets got "lucky" with the injury timings last season to Connor/Vilardi when they were forced to split them apart at 5v5 and thus were able to bank some points before the train drove off the rails again in Feb when they were all back.

The average team's top line (again just the league-wide median team, not a contender or even an average playoff team) is:

GF%: 58% (46% Jets)
CF%: 55% (44% Jets)
xGF%: 55% (38% Jets)

Some of us are hoping they merely break even but just breaking even is only as good as bottom-3rd in the league.

Maybe it'll be different this season.

 

[Jet]

Luckily mtl didn't exactly make us pay for it. Not like they then developed kov into something special or anything resembling more than a 3rd pairing.

Yup we've had a wide variety of 6,7,8s on our roster over the past dozen years and there ain't much to choose between them.

If we would have kept Kova I'm sure people'd be bitching about this slow useless guy blocking our younger guys too.

I'm happy with our defensive depth. I'm just chomping at the bit to REALLY see what we have in Heinola, but even without him our bottom D depth is proving to be solid if unspectacular.

The big area of improvement for this d corps is the second pair RD - just praying that Pionk can find his way this year.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Stanley was mostly a healthy scratch as the 7/8 last season, playing only 25 games. I think the team is comfortable with him as the PB guy.

True. But that was when we had Dillon and Snerg was the 3LD. I'm not sure what to expect, given the Jets traditional loyalty bias.

Assuming Heinola succeeds reasonably once he gets into the lineup, I could see him platooning at 3LD, based on a variety of factors, hot hand, home or away, opponent. I would lean toward Fleury as the other half of the platoon but it could be Stan. Different situation if Heinola flops of course.

At that point do we go with 8 D? Or do we move one? Does Stan still have any trade value? Might depend on some other team having injury problems. Do any of the 3 make it through waivers? Probably not.

I think it sorts itself out when/if we get healthy. But maybe we continue to need the depth.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

My take, is it is a push back against those we don't seem to appreciate the pure visual enjoyment of elite offensive players. Scheifele and Connor basically just won us 2 hockey games with pure offensive skill, but for some that isn't good enough because those goals weren't 5-5. They have however scored 3 times at even strength, but that doesn't meet the test as it has to be 5-5. I was out at the lake for the weekend so I wasn't around here much, but more casual fans were buzzing about how exciting the wins were and talking about what great players Scheifele and Connor are. That is what will bring out fans. Winning hockey games with highlight reel goals.

That isn't it at all. Nothing against what they have done. Nothing at all. It is about what they don't do, which is win their matchups at 5v5, the largest part of the game. Jets have only surrendered 2 goals so far (thanks Helle!) so they have not given up more than they have scored at 5v5. But we know it is coming.

We know, or think we know, that both Scheifele and Connor are more productive apart than they are together. We want to see that implemented as the norm for a long enough trial to either confirm or debunk that belief. They can still play together in all of those non 5v5 situations.

After 3 games, 6 of our 10 goals came in the first game against poor goaltending. Everything went in and it was mostly our bottom 6 that scored. The other 2 games were 2-1 wins in OT. We can all see that our top offensive players, all 5 of them, are not scoring anything, particularly at 5v5. We don't have much to lose by shaking up those 2 lines, one way or another.

 

[Buffdog]

-2 at 5v5 so far. Last season there were only 4 teams whose top lines were worse in the GF/GA equation all bottom feeders- Sharks, Washington, Chicago and Seattle. Jets got "lucky" with the injury timings last season to Connor/Vilardi when they were forced to split them apart at 5v5 and thus were able to bank some points before the train drove off the rails again in Feb when they were all back.

The average team's top line (again just the league-wide median team, not a contender or even an average playoff team) is:

GF%: 58% (46% Jets)
CF%: 55% (44% Jets)
xGF%: 55% (38% Jets)

Some of us are hoping they merely break even but just breaking even is only as good as bottom-3rd in the league.

Maybe it'll be different this season.

Worked OK last season

With Helle, we don't need to dominate or even win every matchup, including our top line

Also, how many of those teams have a "3rd" line that consistently wins their matchups vs other teams top lines?

Maybe it's time to consider that there's more than one way to skin a cat

Edit

In case anyone actually looks into it... Connor and Schief don't lose matchups at 5v5 because they're bad defensively. You're all welcome to look into that yourself

 

[Eyeseeing]

But isn't Ehlers the one with the great analytics? To me he should be on the second line right now trying to get the second line going if that's the case. Again i don't care who plays where as long as we are playing pretty good and winning more games than losing.

Winning is the only thing that matters.
The hows can be important too , but 55/81 are carrying the mail now offensively and Helle is his usual steady self so onwards