Player Discussion Jeff Skinner

[Snippit]

Even strength goals is hardly some obscure nothing stat. It's what Skinner got paid to do. And, but for his injury this season, he'd probably still be doing very well in that area.

In any case, overpaying Skinner by $1-1.5M is the last thing I'm gonna waste my time worrying about with this team.

We are no longer accurately measuring a player’s offensive contributions if we only view even strength goals.

 

[Snippit]

Jeff got paid because he knows how to get in scoring position and make it count more often than most. Snipers do not drive lines, they make line drivers more productive. Put him on Eichel's wing and you will get what you paid for. Give him marginal line mates and ask him to be the driver of the play and you will be unhappy with your money spent. If the Sabres paid him the big bucks thinking he was something else then that is their fault not Jeff's. Give him a decent center and wing that drive possession and can feed him the puck. Then the money will be better spent.

The narrative on here was that Skinner was capable of driving his own line without Eichel. I believed it because of his 37 G year with Derek Ryan.

If he’s not that guy though, then you’re right it is Buffalo’s fault and not Skinner’s. We should not be paying Eichel multiple times.

 

[darcyRegier]

It’s not even that Jeff hasn’t scored in a while, his entire game has dipped. Effort and intensity level aren’t there. He gets stripped of the puck all the time.

I think he is frustrated that he’s playing with Mojo and Frolik instead of Jack.

 

[K8fool]

Skinner is fine.. Will take a couple more games to get back strength , timing, and swagger after injury..

If you get annoyed just blame Jason botteril for not adding a center and another scorer like Skinner to take pressure off him and Eichel..

FU jason

 

[K8fool]

It’s not even that Jeff hasn’t scored in a while, his entire game has dipped. Effort and intensity level aren’t there. He gets stripped of the puck all the time.

I think he is frustrated that he’s playing with Mojo and Frolik instead of Jack.

I thonk he's just angry at himself.. The extra million came w caveat of playing away from Jack. (Guessing)

 

[K8fool]

Jeff Skinners memoirs:
"Came to Buffalo, what I lost in love for the game I won back in dollars"
The end

Harsh.. #nobotterilis screwing us

 

[Aladyyn]

 

[joshjull]

We are no longer accurately measuring a player’s offensive contributions if we only view even strength goals.

Any player’s offensive contributions are measured through the prism of what’s expected of them. In Skinner’s case its primarily to score goals, particularly 5v5 goals.

The narrative on here was that Skinner was capable of driving his own line without Eichel. I believed it because of his 37 G year with Derek Ryan.

If he’s not that guy though, then you’re right it is Buffalo’s fault and not Skinner’s. We should not be paying Eichel multiple times.

Its not that he can “drive a line” but that he can score goals 5v5 regardless of line mates. He has several years in this league doing so to prove it.

The big change for Skinner this year though is his usage. In the previous 5 years he was getting OZS% of 62%, 63%, 67%, 72% and 76% with Jack last season. He’s at 55% at the moment. Which is a slight uptick from earlier this year around 50%. For whatever reason Krueger wants him in this more two way role than the offensively focused one he had last year. It would probably work better if he was with Larsson but he’s spent the bulk of the year with Mojo as his center.

Since Girgs can play either wing they should just put him on RW with Skinner on the LW. I think a Skinner/Larsson/Girgs line would do a lot better than either of the two middle 6 lines we currently ice.

 

[Chainshot]

It’s not even that Jeff hasn’t scored in a while, his entire game has dipped. Effort and intensity level aren’t there. He gets stripped of the puck all the time.

I think he is frustrated that he’s playing with Mojo and Frolik instead of Jack.

He has struck metal a great deal. Bouncing pucks, fumbled shots- it seems like a streak of bad luck and d-zone use to me.

 

[Snippit]

Any player’s offensive contributions are measured through the prism of what’s expected of them. In Skinner’s case its primarily to score goals, particularly 5v5 goals.



Its not that he can “drive a line” but that he can score goals 5v5 regardless of line mates. He has several years in this league doing so to prove it.

The big change for Skinner this year though is his usage. In the previous 5 years he was getting OZS% of 62%, 63%, 67%, 72% and 76% with Jack last season. He’s at 55% at the moment. Which is a slight uptick from earlier this year around 50%. For whatever reason Krueger wants him in this more two way role than the offensively focused one he had last year. It would probably work better if he was with Larsson but he’s spent the bulk of the year with Mojo as his center.

Since Girgs can play either wing they should just put him on RW with Skinner on the LW. I think a Skinner/Larsson/Girgs line would do a lot better than either of the two middle 6 lines we currently ice.

You are correct, historically his production was boosted by absurd offensive zone start percentages. Too bad that didn't play any kind of role in contract negotiations.

Skinner is expected to produce (and play) like a top line forward. That is not limited to a single metric like 5v5 goals. To make a legitimate evaluation of any player's offensive contributions you need to look at everything; assists and powerplay production included.

He was paid extra because of his high goal totals (driven by an unsustainable shooting percentage and crazy high OZS%), but not exclusively because of it.

 

[Aladyyn]

You are correct, historically his production was boosted by absurd offensive zone start percentages. Too bad that didn't play any kind of role in contract negotiations.

Skinner is expected to produce (and play) like a top line forward. That is not limited to a single metric like 5v5 goals. To make a legitimate evaluation of any player's offensive contributions you need to look at everything; assists and powerplay production included.

He was paid extra because of his high goal totals (driven by an unsustainable shooting percentage and crazy high OZS%), but not exclusively because of it.

Please explain to me how he's supposed to produce on the powerplay when he never gets the puck.

 

[Snippit]

He has struck metal a great deal. Bouncing pucks, fumbled shots- it seems like a streak of bad luck and d-zone use to me.

In terms of posts and crossbars, Eichel, Reinhart and Mittelstadt are actually the most unlucky (5 each). Followed by Olofsson, Skinner and Miller.

 

[Snippit]

Please explain to me how he's supposed to produce on the powerplay when he never gets the puck.

108 minutes on the powerplay, most of it playing with the top unit, and puts up 3 assists.

Equivalent to Conor Sheary who did it in half the time.

Visually he is also just not good on the PP at all, and it doesn't surprise me that he's been demoted to PP2.

If you're blaming that 100% on the system, that's laughable.

He has the worst P/60 (and P1/60) on the powerplay on the whole team.

 

[Aladyyn]

108 minutes on the powerplay, most of it playing with the top unit, and puts up 3 assists.

Equivalent to Conor Sheary who did it in half the time.

Visually he is also just not good on the PP at all, and it doesn't surprise me that he's been demoted to PP2.

If you're blaming that 100% on the system, that's laughable.

He has the worst P/60 (and P1/60) on the powerplay on the whole team.

It's not laughable when for most of the season the system involved only passing the puck to 3 out of the 5 players on the ice.

 

[Chainshot]

108 minutes on the powerplay, most of it playing with the top unit, and puts up 3 assists.

Equivalent to Conor Sheary who did it in half the time.

Visually he is also just not good on the PP at all, and it doesn't surprise me that he's been demoted to PP2.

If you're blaming that 100% on the system, that's laughable.

He has the worst P/60 (and P1/60) on the powerplay on the whole team.

The puck doesn’t move through him (probably for the best) so it is either goal or nothing. They don’t utilize any sort of mid-slot slap-pass option at all, which he seems perfect to be the redirector on.

 

[Snippit]

It's not laughable when for most of the season the system involved only passing the puck to 3 out of the 5 players on the ice.

Somehow your boy Reinhart has managed to become involved in the action though.

 

[Snippit]

The puck doesn’t move through him (probably for the best) so it is either goal or nothing. They don’t utilize any sort of mid-slot slap-pass option at all, which he seems perfect to be the redirector on.

Bolded is dead on...he doesn't really have the hands to move the puck with speed with Eichel/Dahlin, and I've actually seen them try to set up Skinner for shots in the middle of the slot several times this year, it just hasn't yielded anything - he doesn't really have such a great shot to beat goalies from range regularly. Both of these things highlight some of his limitations.

 

[Aladyyn]

Somehow your boy Reinhart has managed to become involved in the action though.

Reinhart's PP production has been getting suppressed by the system since year 1

 

[joshjull]

You are correct, historically his production was boosted by absurd offensive zone start percentages. Too bad that didn't play any kind of role in contract negotiations.

Skinner is expected to produce (and play) like a top line forward. That is not limited to a single metric like 5v5 goals. To make a legitimate evaluation of any player's offensive contributions you need to look at everything; assists and powerplay production included.

He was paid extra because of his high goal totals (driven by an unsustainable shooting percentage and crazy high OZS%), but not exclusively because of it.

His production was not boosted by an absurd amount of offensive zone starts. They have little to no impact on a players overall production over the course of a season. Its just an indicator of the usage they are getting.

Maybe you’re misunderstanding the OZS% stat. Last season he didn’t start 76% of his overall shifts in the offensive zone. Thats just a measure of his Ozone and dzone starts (76% are in the Ozone. It gives us an idea which way the coaches are leaning with his usage.

Last year Skinner started 22.5% of all his shifts in the Ozone not 76%. The rest were 50% on the fly, 20.5% in neutral zone and only 7% in Dzone.

 

[Snippit]

Reinhart's PP production has been getting suppressed by the system since year 1

My point was that Reinhart has managed to produce at a respectable rate on the PP this year even though he's not part of the exclusive triangle at the top.

Regardless of the system, if you're playing half-way decent on a middling #1 PP unit, you put up points.

 

[Snippit]

His production was not boosted by an absurd amount of offensive zone starts. They have little to no impact on a players overall production over the course of a season. Its just an indicator of the usage they are getting.

Maybe you’re misunderstanding the OZS% stat. Last season he didn’t start 76% of his overall shifts in the offensive zone. Thats just a measure of his Ozone and dzone starts. It gives us an idea which way the coaches are leaning with his usage. Last year Skinner started 22.5% of all his shifts in the Ozone not 76%. The rest were 50% on the fly, 20.5% in neutral zone and only 7% in Dzone.

Lol I know that he didn't actually start 76% of his shifts in the offensive zone. His zone starts were still skewed, and have always been skewed for his whole career. For the first time in his career he's getting a normal distribution.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Skinner - Turris - Tuch

I think you have a different result

Olofsson - Eichel - XXXX
Skinner - ROR - Reinhart

A result that could have happened.

 

[debaser66]

So much over-reacting about Skinner and what this season means. He was relied on to help form a legit 2nd scoring line. Not sure about everyone else here, but I could easily tell you in October that he wouldn't match last season's production in that role, with no legit 2nd RW on the roster and Johansson doing his best to fill in at 2C.

"Wasting Eichel's season"? Uh...this season was never going to end in playoff success. Maybe a chance at winning a round, but so what? This season was bound to end with less than whatever it might mean to "make Eichel's season count". Skinner is about 10th on the list of reasons why this team isn't good enough right now. Get at least one more top-six FW for him to play with and then we can re-visit his value.

Sorry but its hard to take you seriously with that statement.
This group needs some success & consider qualifing alone one
Especially if you re on the longest drought in the whole league
What about UFAs?
It narrows the list & you have to overpay even more....

 

[joshjull]

Lol I know that he didn't actually start 76% of his shifts in the offensive zone. His zone starts were still skewed, and have always been skewed for his whole career. For the first time in his career he's getting a normal distribution.

If you knew that then your comment is ignorant. Its well established that zone starts have little to no impact on production in the aggregate. Just as ignorant is the idea that he’s now getting “normal distribution” as if thats even a thing.


Are you even aware of what player usage is? Or how it’s represented by OZS%? Because these comments suggest you're not. Offensively skilled players usually gets offensively skewed OZS%. Just like Jack, Sam and VO have gotten as a line (roughly 65%). Its also why guys like LOG get defensive skewed OZS%. (Around 40%)


I get you what to rant about Skinner but at least make logical arguments.

 

[debaser66]

What would you have paid him
Knowing last season was an outliner& he would slip back to CAR levels?

What was Skinners leverage considering he wanted to be close to home and TOR has no space?