Confirmed with Link: Jeff Skinner -- Bought Out 6/29/24

[Chainshot]

Thanks.... didn't know that. I knew they weren't fired but didn't know that.

The #1 PP from two years ago had Eichel as the shooter and O'Reilly as the QB along the right half wall. As much as we'd all like to as Olofsson at the right half wall, I think that needs to be Mittelstadt. Put Dahlin at the point and let those two monkey around with the puck, then use Eichel along the back side. Reinhart can pop out low. Skinner in the high slot.

It's identical to the Caps powerplay.

PP2 can have Ristolainen (if he's still around) or Montour at the point, Olofsson on the right half wall, and then build the rest from whoever the team acquires.

I don't want Montour anywhere near PP2. Give that job to Risto or Pilut. Montour is Tyler Myers -- great on the rush but not good as a distributor at set piece plays. If they had a viable low option who could take Reinhart's net-front job, they could also move him over to the right half-wall and have the PP run through him and Dahlin. I know that I don't want it running through Jack. Jack on entries? Sure. Left-side shot option? Yes, especially if they get him to move about 3-4 feet closer to the net and slot. But handling it and trying to make the feeds? Not as much.

 

[Jim Bob]

I do hope that Capfriendly does more with percentage of total cap in their charts going forward. It seems like a no-brainer given the faux outrage about signings that then are easily cataloged by % of cap relative to goal production. Anyway....



Smith is the only retained assistant. All the others were told they could seek other employment. If they return, I would be surprised.

I'm hoping they find a way to work Dahlin and Eichel as their entry guys and then use Reinhart as the low hub. That leaves Skinner as the bump and a need for someone on the right half-wall who is not Kyle Okposo. It could be Mitts, it could be Olofsson (my preference since we know he can finesse goals in from there as well as use the crease option or the slot option as a playmaker), or it could be some as-yet unknown player.

If they retain Risto, they would have the personnel to get creative on the PP, IMO.

You could go with a Ryan Stimson's behind the net attack with say Skinner and Reinhart below the goalline, Eichel and VO in the circles and Dahlin up top.

They could replace VO with Risto and play a rotating type of PP where Risto and Dahlin play on their off side and slide down toward the FO dot when on the weakside of the play and wheel back up top when the play rotates to their side.

How Power Play Goals are Scored in the NHL - The Hockey Think Tank

And if they just go with the 1-3-1 structure that works in the league, they have some of the most important pieces for success especially if VO is a threat opposite Eichel.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I don't want Montour anywhere near PP2. Give that job to Risto or Pilut. Montour is Tyler Myers -- great on the rush but not good as a distributor at set piece plays. If they had a viable low option who could take Reinhart's net-front job, they could also move him over to the right half-wall and have the PP run through him and Dahlin. I know that I don't want it running through Jack. Jack on entries? Sure. Left-side shot option? Yes, especially if they get him to move about 3-4 feet closer to the net and slot. But handling it and trying to make the feeds? Not as much.

I don't remember that much about Montour on the PP. Late season was a blur.

If they can find a net front presence, I woundn't mind moving Reinhart to PP2 and having him run it. Olofsson as the trigger man back side.

 

[Chainshot]

I don't remember that much about Montour on the PP. Late season was a blur.

If they can find a net front presence, I woundn't mind moving Reinhart to PP2 and having him run it. Olofsson as the trigger man back side.

Montour had a rough year in Anaheim on the PP. Then during Risto's illness, he showed he too can be just as crap logging ridiculous RHD minutes, albeit in shorter, Canadian format.

Montour is a guy who seems like will generate off the rush like prime "Condor" Myers did. His struggles on set piece plays where it isn't a physical contest of who is faster to skate to an opening. Maybe I'm selling him short, perhaps he has something more to his game there... but I would go Pilut as the PP2 point over him at this juncture.

 

[Jame]

Montour had a rough year in Anaheim on the PP. Then during Risto's illness, he showed he too can be just as crap logging ridiculous RHD minutes, albeit in shorter, Canadian format.

Montour is a guy who seems like will generate off the rush like prime "Condor" Myers did. His struggles on set piece plays where it isn't a physical contest of who is faster to skate to an opening. Maybe I'm selling him short, perhaps he has something more to his game there... but I would go Pilut as the PP2 point over him at this juncture.

Agreed.

Montour still has a lot of acquisition shine. He's one of the players I'm most looking forward to getting a better feel for next year. There were a lot of positives both in the ozone and in transition, but there were some horror show moments on D.

 

[joshjull]

 

[Tsyolin]

The "Old North" openly cheered when Kevin Durant got hurt. Says all you need to know about Toronto fans, though if you even peek at the main boards you'll get your fill of their "takes".

It's actually a North Carolina fan site.

 

[Chainshot]

Skinner was getting criticized by some pundits because he has so few assist. Do you think he'd have more assists with another shooter on the right wing instead of a playmaker like Reinhart?

It's interesting that some of them say things about total points and yet McKenzie has repeated the mantra that teams pay for five-on-five goals more than once. Maybe if people paid more attention to that rather than knee-jerk talking points about points, they might start to see his value.

Or just spend time dumping on the Sabres because lets face it, it's just easier than putting in any thought.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[itwasaforwardpass]

Skinner was getting criticized by some pundits because he has so few assist. Do you think he'd have more assists with another shooter on the right wing instead of a playmaker like Reinhart?

Skinner needs to stop scoring so many goals so he can fix his goal/assist ratio.

 

[Chainshot]

So no hockey games means no more insults from various methuselah talking-heads for a day or two. I'm sure there will be digs at the awards ceremony.

 

[joshjull]

It's not like this was a bad decision to make in June, 2019. It's that it never should have gotten to this point. And for fans living moment to moment, I get how this feels like a win.

But if Jeff Skinner was demanding $9M (or more, likely) before the TDL, he should have moved for a package including a mid-first rounder and another high pick or prospect. A 50 goal pace at the time should've bought that.

What the Sabres are becoming is a team that is going to spend to the cap just to maintain a bottom 5 roster. They have $20M in space for 7 roster spots. They will get to ~$80-83M with just resignings and a low-level FA or two. They have two of the top 16 cap hits in hockey. They will probably have to add a third for Dahlin. Reinhart may be a cap casualty when his deal comes around, if he rightly points out that he put up more points than Skinner and was a better 200' player.

Great teams maintain some level of financial balance across the roster. That's how they can afford to maintain depth. They can do that because they know how to draft and develop, so they have a pipeline, and they can afford to walk away from a bad contract, and use their foresight to recoup what they can from the player before it gets to that. Sell high, get two high picks for Skinner, move them for a cheaper guy with upside down the line.

It's not that this was a bad deal on the day it happened. But it just shows that the franchise is weak enough where it counts that they have to make hard concessions just to keep from regressing. They can't really afford to develop a roadmap forward. Basically the hope for this team climbing out of the basement comes down to Krueger and Dahlin right now, and I'm skeptical that we'll be seeing a playoff game in Buffalo anytime in the next few years.

I wouldn’t wasted too much energy worrying about us having 2 top 16 cap hits with Dahlin still to sign. We won’t have 2 in few weeks, let alone a 3rd when Dahlin’s contract kicks in, once Panarin, Duchene, E.Karlsson and Bobrosky get their new deals. Add in Marner’s upcoming deal and Skinner probably won’t be on the top 20. Jack might not even be in the top 16 when you add in those deals to Hall, among others, by the time a new Dahlin contract kicks in.

I wouldn’t worry about the cap situation either. We only have Jack, Skinner, Okposo, Risto, Dahlin and Hutton currently under contract past this season. Its wide open for the GM to shape things quite easily. We have one of the better cap situations going forward.

If you don’t have faith in Botts, I’m with you. But my concern is over his ability to build a team not worried that the cap will do us in. We are in great shape on that front.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Quoting myself from another thread...

If you add up the cap hits of the players that will still be around after next summer's purge (Sobotka, Sheary, Bogosian, Scandella, Hunwck, a few others), and assume a few ELC players like Olofsson, Nylander, Borgen can fill roster spots, you end up with under 70 mil total cap hit, even after you give Reinhart an 8aav mil contract. That's still counting Okposo on the books too.

The cap ceiling will be at least 85 mil then, so there's plenty of room for Dahlin's raise and some quality additions where necessary. This roster is set up well for when Botterill (or insert your favorite GM for Botterill haters) wants to put his foot on the gas in a couple years. Need draftees to pan out well int he meantime, of course.​

 

[Jame]

Quoting myself from another thread...

If you add up the cap hits of the players that will still be around after next summer's purge (Sobotka, Sheary, Bogosian, Scandella, Hunwck, a few others), and assume a few ELC players like Olofsson, Nylander, Borgen can fill roster spots, you end up with under 70 mil total cap hit, even after you give Reinhart an 8aav mil contract. That's still counting Okposo on the books too.

The cap ceiling will be at least 85 mil then, so there's plenty of room for Dahlin's raise and some quality additions where necessary. This roster is set up well for when Botterill (or insert your favorite GM for Botterill haters) wants to put his foot on the gas in a couple years. Need draftees to pan out well int he meantime, of course.​

That assumes not doing anything of relevance this offseason (free agency or net adds in trade).

 

[Jame]

I wouldn’t wasted too much energy worrying about us having 2 top 16 cap hits with Dahlin still to sign. We won’t have 2 in few weeks, let alone a 3rd when Dahlin’s contract kicks in, once Panarin, Duchene, E.Karlsson and Bobrosky get their new deals. Add in Marner’s upcoming deal and Skinner probably won’t be on the top 20. Jack might not even be in the top 16 when you add in those deals to Hall, among others, by the time a new Dahlin contract kicks in.

I wouldn’t worry about the cap situation either. We only have Jack, Skinner, Okposo, Risto, Dahlin and Hutton currently under contract past this season. Its wide open for the GM to shape things quite easily. We have one of the better cap situations going forward.

If you don’t have faith in Botts, I’m with you. But my concern is over his ability to build a team not worried that the cap will do us in. We are in great shape on that front.

In general there’s not much of a cap issue on the horizon, even after plugging in high end Reinhart and Dahlin numbers...

The issue that could arise is if we add what’s necessary to be competitive now, and then see breakouts from Olof, Mitts, Tage, Montour, Pilut, etc...

Granted that’s a problem we want to have

 

[haseoke39]

I wouldn’t wasted too much energy worrying about us having 2 top 16 cap hits with Dahlin still to sign. We won’t have 2 in few weeks, let alone a 3rd when Dahlin’s contract kicks in, once Panarin, Duchene, E.Karlsson and Bobrosky get their new deals. Add in Marner’s upcoming deal and Skinner probably won’t be on the top 20. Jack might not even be in the top 16 when you add in those deals to Hall, among others, by the time a new Dahlin contract kicks in.

I wouldn’t worry about the cap situation either. We only have Jack, Skinner, Okposo, Risto, Dahlin and Hutton currently under contract past this season. Its wide open for the GM to shape things quite easily. We have one of the better cap situations going forward.

If you don’t have faith in Botts, I’m with you. But my concern is over his ability to build a team not worried that the cap will do us in. We are in great shape on that front.

"Great shape" is an overstatement. A lot of unknowns, but the premise doesn't look good to me.

I'd argue we're already seeing the results of a cap crunch. There was literally not enough money last September under the cap to extend Reinhart to a reasonable deal. Hence dealing from weakness. We might have saved a couple million there if we believe the rumored asking prices vs what I think he'll get next deal.

For my part, this is how I mentally model the future. If we resign our (developed) core to what they should be able to demand, two years from now we have:

Skinner 9 Eichel 10 Reinhart 7.5
x - x - x
x - x - x
x - x - Okposo 6
x, x

Dahlin 10 - Ristolainen 5.4
x - Montour 5.5
x - x
x

x
x

88M cap
53.4M spoken for by seven contracts.
34.5M for sixteen contracts -- 10 forwards, 4 defense, 2 goalies

Let's build it out.

Step One: First, let's do the easy stuff -- $1M apiece for all backups/extra skaters -- 1D, 2Fs, 1G. Now you have 30.5M for 8F, 3D, and a starting G.
Step Two: Then make sure not to skimp on the most important position. Let's say your starting G costs at least $5.5M. There's 15 goalies making $4.9 or more now. So we scale up mildly for inflation.
Step Three: Let's be reasonably optimistic and assume that 2 ELCs make the roster, without any bonuses, in addition to your $1M backups. Say 1F, 1D. Now you have 6 players total making a bare million. Maybe this includes 7OA this year.

Now you have $23M to fill out the middle 7 forwards, 2D. That's $2.55 per. This includes Mittelstadt, Nylander, Thompson, Asplund, Oloffsson, Pilut, Borgen, if you're counting on any of them.

Now there's a ton of spots left and a ton of cap to imagine different scenarios. But globally, you do see the parameters of the pressure the GM is going to be under. This is going to be the kind of team where the middle of the lineup -- the whole second and third lines and #4-5 D, basically -- is going to have to come in at less than $3M a pop. That's not a premise from which you can build great depth.

Or else the goaltending will have to be really cheap. Or else somebody will have to move, like maybe Reinhart. Or else Dahlin doesn't develop like we hope. None of these are good options.

***

Another way to think of it is this: how many teams have their top 5 contracts eating up >48% of cap? In my model, that would be Reinhart, Okposo, Skinner, Dahlin, Eichel -- 42.5M of an 88M cap.

To compare against last year's $80M cap, the question would be based on who has 5 deals accounting for $38.5M. The answer is three: Chicago ($39.8), Edmonton ($38.5), Pittsburgh ($38.9). The theme there is nobody won a playoff round, and Pittsburgh and Chicago are only on the list because they each won a bunch of cups and they're paying for it now.

For shits and giggles, the Bruins top 5 deals came in at 34.5% of cap. The Blues top 5 deals will come in at 40% of the cap. Those are teams that can afford to be deep.

So yeah, if they retain this core, they will have to be among the most top-heavy teams salary-wise in the league. And that doesn't add anyone to last year's shitshow -- it just basically counts on Dahlin and Krueger to be the difference.

If your premise is this core just needs a bunch of quality depth behind them to flourish, they won't get it without a lot of bargain deals elsewhere.

My guess is they're aware of this, and the plan is to really squeeze Reinhart and Dahlin when they come up. I don't know how likely that is to work.

 

[Zman5778]

One thing to keep in mind cap-wise: there's a new CBA coming. Whenever the NHL has a new CBA lately, there's been a chance for an amnesty or two. Now, I'm not saying that GMs are necessarily banking on this, but there's plenty of historical precedence (as well as rumblings that there's likely to be such a provision again).

I'm betting that by the time Dahlin's ELC expires, Okposo's contract is off the books one way or another (amnesty or via lopsided "take this cap" deal)

 

[joshjull]

"Great shape" is an overstatement. A lot of unknowns, but the premise doesn't look good to me.

I'd argue we're already seeing the results of a cap crunch. There was literally not enough money last September under the cap to extend Reinhart to a reasonable deal. Hence dealing from weakness. We might have saved a couple million there if we believe the rumored asking prices vs what I think he'll get next deal.

For my part, this is how I mentally model the future. If we resign our (developed) core to what they should be able to demand, two years from now we have:

Skinner 9 Eichel 10 Reinhart 7.5
x - x - x
x - x - x
x - x - Okposo 6
x, x

Dahlin 10 - Ristolainen 5.4
x - Montour 5.5
x - x
x

x
x

88M cap
53.4M spoken for by seven contracts.
34.5M for sixteen contracts -- 10 forwards, 4 defense, 2 goalies

Let's build it out.

Step One: First, let's do the easy stuff -- $1M apiece for all backups/extra skaters -- 1D, 2Fs, 1G. Now you have 30.5M for 8F, 3D, and a starting G.
Step Two: Then make sure not to skimp on the most important position. Let's say your starting G costs at least $5.5M. There's 15 goalies making $4.9 or more now. So we scale up mildly for inflation.
Step Three: Let's be reasonably optimistic and assume that 2 ELCs make the roster, without any bonuses, in addition to your $1M backups. Say 1F, 1D. Now you have 6 players total making a bare million. Maybe this includes 7OA this year.

Now you have $23M to fill out the middle 7 forwards, 2D. That's $2.55 per. This includes Mittelstadt, Nylander, Thompson, Asplund, Oloffsson, Pilut, Borgen, if you're counting on any of them.

Now there's a ton of spots left and a ton of cap to imagine different scenarios. But globally, you do see the parameters of the pressure the GM is going to be under. This is going to be the kind of team where the middle of the lineup -- the whole second and third lines and #4-5 D, basically -- is going to have to come in at less than $3M a pop. That's not a premise from which you can build great depth.

Or else the goaltending will have to be really cheap. Or else somebody will have to move, like maybe Reinhart. Or else Dahlin doesn't develop like we hope. None of these are good options.

***

Another way to think of it is this: how many teams have their top 5 contracts eating up >48% of cap? In my model, that would be Reinhart, Okposo, Skinner, Dahlin, Eichel -- 42.5M of an 88M cap.

To compare against last year's $80M cap, the question would be based on who has 5 deals accounting for $38.5M. The answer is three: Chicago ($39.8), Edmonton ($38.5), Pittsburgh ($38.9). The theme there is nobody won a playoff round, and Pittsburgh and Chicago are only on the list because they each won a bunch of cups and they're paying for it now.

For ****s and giggles, the Bruins top 5 deals came in at 34.5% of cap. The Blues top 5 deals will come in at 40% of the cap. Those are teams that can afford to be deep.

So yeah, if they retain this core, they will have to be among the most top-heavy teams salary-wise in the league. And that doesn't add anyone to last year's ****show -- it just basically counts on Dahlin and Krueger to be the difference.

If your premise is this core just needs a bunch of quality depth behind them to flourish, they won't get it without a lot of bargain deals elsewhere.

My guess is they're aware of this, and the plan is to really squeeze Reinhart and Dahlin when they come up. I don't know how likely that is to work.

You're trying way too hard to create a problem in your mind where none exists at the moment.

Even with Skinner signed we still have the 12th largest amount of cap space left. Going forward we have very little cap space tied up after the coming season. That leaves us a ton of flexibility in general but especially with a new CBA coming. There is no logical way to frame our cap flexibility as being a cap crunch. We are beautifully set up for whatever comes in the new CBA.

You made some assumptions about our future roster in order to lay out the case that the sky may be falling.

- We have no idea if Risto will be here this upcoming season let alone 3 seasons from now.

- Okposo could be gone if the opt out is triggered and there are compliance buyouts in the next CBA.

-Our goaltending in 3 seasons from now is almost impossible to guess. It could be a perfect situation where UPL emerges as a legit starter during his ELC. That would give us starting goaltending on the cheap. Or we could be looking for goalies and have to pay through the nose to get them. I have no idea which will happen.

The new CBA is going change the contract landscape. That may happen as soon as next summer if the opt out is used by either party (NHL or NHLPA) in September. Until we know how this plays its hard to say for certain what players will be getting in their next contract. As an example, if the opt out is used then the landscape will look different for Sam’s next deal, let alone Dahlin’s. Like the owners desire for the max length of contracts to be 4 or 5 years.

 

[haseoke39]

You're trying way too hard to create a problem in your mind where none exists at the moment.

Even with Skinner signed we still have the 12th largest amount of cap space left. Going forward we have very little cap space tied up after the coming season. That leaves us a ton of flexibility in general but especially with a new CBA coming. There is no logical way to frame our cap flexibility as being a cap crunch. We are beautifully set up for whatever comes in the new CBA.

You made some assumptions about our future roster in order to lay out the case that the sky may be falling.

- We have no idea if Risto will be here this upcoming season let alone 3 seasons from now.

- Okposo could be gone if the opt out is triggered and there are compliance buyouts in the next CBA.

-Our goaltending in 3 seasons from now is almost impossible to guess. It could be a perfect situation where UPL emerges as a legit starter during his ELC. That would give us starting goaltending on the cheap. Or we could be looking for goalies and have to pay through the nose to get them. I have no idea which will happen.

The new CBA is going change the contract landscape. That may happen as soon as next summer if the opt out is sued by either party (NHL or NHLPA) in September. Until we know how this plays its hard to say for certain what players will be getting in their next contract. As an example, if the opt out is used then the landscape will like different for even Sam’s next deal, let alone Dahlin’s.

Wow, I'm surprised by this retort. I thought I had laid out the most conservative assumptions I could. I projected three contracts and left everything else an X.

Put it this way: compliance buyouts, dumping Risto and replacing him with a cheaper comparable player, and getting a legit starting goaltender for $1M, are all more liberal assumptions.

It's also really not fair to call this a sky-is-falling post. I say that if we proceed by just locking up our core to realistic deals, we'll be among the more top-heavy teams financially and have to choose between investing in better depth, or goaltending, or moving someone, or hoping for compliance buyouts, etc. I don't really see any alarmism in that analysis. I do see a lack of foresight in just saying we're set up great now because, essentially, we have very few contracts on the books past next year. The flip side of that is that the few contracts we will have are all large and we'll have a lot more important roster spots to fill. That's what I'm calling attention to.

 

[Fezzy126]

Another way to think of it is this: how many teams have their top 5 contracts eating up >48% of cap? In my model, that would be Reinhart, Okposo, Skinner, Dahlin, Eichel -- 42.5M of an 88M cap.

Dude, what the hell are you even talking about? You do realize that this season the Lightning, Sharks, and Leafs will all likely have greater than 50% of their cap dedicated to their top 5 players? I'd kill to have any of their rosters...

I've seen these long term roster projections since the day Eichel was drafted. The day we can't afford to pay all of our amazing players is hopefully the same day that we don't have to draft in the top 10. On that day I'll worry about the cap. Do you think Toronto is worried about the cap, or are they thinking about flipping one of their really good forwards for a young defenseman on an ELC?

 

[haseoke39]

Dude, what the hell are you even talking about? You do realize that this season the Lightning, Sharks, and Leafs will all likely have greater than 50% of their cap dedicated to their top 5 players? I'd kill to have any of their rosters...

I started doing that analysis for next season, but it's really not fair because those rosters haven't been set yet. Your assumptions will be tested when teams sign all these contracts and then actually get cap compliant afterwards.

My analysis was for the most recent season we actually have real numbers for.

 

[haseoke39]

The day we can't afford to pay all of our amazing players is hopefully the same day that we don't have to draft in the top 10. On that day I'll worry about the cap.

You could argue it already happened. Reinhart got bridged because the bottom 10 team was against the cap.

 

[Fezzy126]

You could argue it already happened. Reinhart got bridged because the bottom 10 team was against the cap.

That's not why he got a bridge, it was because he didn't put together a consistent full season and many relevant comparables also got bridge deals.

The Sam Reinhart contract debate: What kind of deal should the Sabres offer?

It was a legitimate debate among fans.

 

[Jim Bob]

That's not why he got a bridge, it was because he didn't put together a consistent full season and many relevant comparables also got bridge deals.

The Sam Reinhart contract debate: What kind of deal should the Sabres offer?

It was a legitimate debate among fans.

It was a bridge because the GM didn't have the foresight to expect him to continue to develop and lock him up long term to a deal that would be a bargain before it was over.

 

[haseoke39]

That's not why he got a bridge, it was because he didn't put together a consistent full season and many relevant comparables also got bridge deals.

The Sam Reinhart contract debate: What kind of deal should the Sabres offer?

It was a legitimate debate among fans.

Whether Botts secretly wanted to bridge him or not, the facts are he did not have the cap space to offer him a richer, longer-term deal. Not at the time.