Doesn't change anything. Liljegren is a promising young prospect who is not proven. It takes years for these types of prospects to mature and make an impact in the NHL. Especially on Defense. The Beaulieu comparison is a very good comparison. It is true Beaulieu played in the Q in his draft year +1 but he also had a very good year and playoffs that year too.
What did each player do in the U20 World Juniors in their draft year +1? Very similar. Don't be sensitive. I'm not saying Liljegren turns into Beaulieu. I'm saying you won't know his true potential for a few years yet and it's anybodies guess. Penciling him down as a #1D or top 4D for sure and there is zero chance he disappoints is not reasonable.
What do you expect from Liljegren in his 2nd AHL season? How much of a jump in development do you predict? Or do you think he plays in the NHL as a regular next year towards the end of the year already?
It's not being sensitive, just pointing out Beaulieu isn't a great comparable to Liljegren. They have different skill sets, and different draw backs, and played in different leagues against different competition at similar points in their development. Any player can hit that wall when going to the next level, and it's especially true for defense, as how they fare against tougher and tougher competition, is what determines how useful they will be later.
I don't think Liljegren gets any real time in the NHL this year, maybe late if there are injuries, but honestly I think he develops by playing a bigger role in the AHL instead. I see him getting heavier 5 on 5 usage in the AHL this year, and becomes their #1 RHD, especially if Holl gets the 6-7 job with the Leafs.
I think the thing that is interesting with Liljegren is that he is a very different prospect than what was said about him at the time of the draft. He was projected as a very boom or bust prospect with elite skating but very questionable decision making. However, when he got to North America, his calling card has been his Hockey IQ, but his skating is nowhere near elite. He plays smart and has improved drastically in what his short falls were supposed to be (or maybe they were never as bad as projected?), he is still an offensive weapon, but he likely is never going to get mistaken for a Karlsson, Kilngberg type.
I do think it will take 18-24 months to know for sure if Liljegren is an NHL player, but I do think some of the what holds back defense evaluations is simply that coaches simply don't get the opportunities. Good defensemen need a coach to trust them to show that they are good. They can be great in limited roles, but without playing better forwards or getting PP or PK time, they can only show so much of what they can do. When a good forward starts getting limited minutes, it's likely against weaker lines, and they can really start to run over those lines. Then whether or not their coach believes they are a big scoring threat doesn't matter as other coaches start matching up a little tougher against that line.
There are lots of good defensemen in the league that simply don't get a good opportunity to show what they are capable of, so I think the development issue is as much an evaluation issue as it is that the position takes longer to learn. Some teams have shown their staffs are far better at recognizing defensive talent early, and it pays dividends if you can realize what you have by the end of the ELC so you can get them locked up before they really take off.