TSN: Jake Gardiner or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Advanced Stats

[91Kadri91*]

Jake can have the puck all he wants. Fact is he gets scored on way more then he scores when he's on the ice. When he makes a mistake, he makes them big.

No stat can dispute this simple statement. After all, the purpose of hockey is to outscore your opponent.

Anyhow, enough about this crappy player. If he doesn't show improvement this year he's gone.

Over the past three years he has a GFRelTM of 0%; over the past two it's 1.7%; over his career it's 2.0%.

Also, his problem is not preventing goals, it's scoring them.

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

Jake can have the puck all he wants. Fact is he gets scored on way more then he scores when he's on the ice. When he makes a mistake, he makes them big.

No stat can dispute this simple statement. After all, the purpose of hockey is to outscore your opponent.

Anyhow, enough about this crappy player. If he doesn't show improvement this year he's gone.

That's another thing.

If you're better at shot suppression than your peers but throw a cross-ice pass in your own zone that leads to a turn-over and a goal against then consider that shot suppression stat negligible because the giveaway led to a high quality scoring chance meanwhile suppressing a couple shots less than your peers isn't going to make up for that.

Franson was the benefactor of advanced stats last season. They indicated he was good (iirc) but he made a dumb play nearly every game that led to a goal against. Meanwhile people who think they know statistics lauded him as a good defencemen because "look at this particular chart!"

The bottom-line is goals vs. goals against.

 

[Ovate]

Agreed. +/- is the only advanced stat that I need. I don't know why teams are investing so much into analytics when the only good stat is freely available.

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

Agreed. +/- is the only advanced stat that I need. I don't know why teams are investing so much into analytics when the only good stat is freely available.

+/- is a team stat and provides no insight into individual performance. I know you know this but I'm putting this here just so you don't think that what I meant by "the bottom line is goals for vs. goals against" is +/-. I just think it's really difficult to extrapolate individual player performance using statistics and most of us aren't equipped well enough to debate on this topic, including myself.

 

[91Kadri91*]

That's another thing.

If you're better at shot suppression than your peers but throw a cross-ice pass in your own zone that leads to a turn-over and a goal against then consider that shot suppression stat negligible because the giveaway led to a high quality scoring chance meanwhile suppressing a couple shots less than your peers isn't going to make up for that.

Except that Gardiner doesn't allow goals against, either. He also produced a significantly better SC% (scoring chance percentage) and high-danger SC% than anyone else on the Leafs.

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

Except that Gardiner doesn't allow goals against, either. He also produced a significantly better SC% (scoring chance percentage) and high-danger SC% than anyone else on the Leafs.

That's good!

That particular statement I made was meant as more of a blanket statement to describe why someone should tread lightly when drawing conclusions from individual stats though. I know it probably didn't sound that way but that's what it was meant for.

I don't think Gardiner makes poor decisions with the puck at all. I think his deficiencies lie in his play along the boards and defensive IQ (positioning).

 

[nsleaf]

High-danger SC %.?????

 

[deletethis]

If that wasn't what you said, then it'd probably help to rephrase because to me it sounded like that's exactly the implication that you were making...

I know the game you're playing. Ignore.

 

[Gary Nylund]

If that wasn't what you said, then it'd probably help to rephrase because to me it sounded like that's exactly the implication that you were making...

Hey thanks, good to know I wasn't the only one.

 

[King85Kong]

Thought he played a really solid game tonight.

 

[hfdshdh]

I know the game you're playing. Ignore.

Sorry if I came off as trying to be antagonistic. I'm just suggesting to rephrase since multiple people apparently weren't understanding what you actually meant.

 

[Hockey Talker29]

Thought he played a really solid game tonight.

I thought Jake was our best player. Slipped a bit in the 3rd, but was dominant most of the game.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Im liking the team defence finally!

 

[finnbalor*]

If Duncan Keith had the game Gardiner (nice toe save) had last night, thy talking heads would be praising how genius ever little stride and puck possession was and breaking down tape of how superior he does everything from jumping over the boards and how makes eye contact, the way he breathes ect....

Jake looked like a stud last night, also liked Rielly's hustle on the first goal, these two look to be the bright spots of a dark season.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Ironically I am a huge fanboy of all those players when it comes to the eye test. But that may be because I am more left-winged

My personal hypothesis is that conservative people don't like defenseman like gardiner. I have done a lot of research for a psyc course I did before and it is proven that conservative people are more easily startled and are more prone to produce a hostile respons e to that anxiety. Those who are left winged aren't as easily startled or as hostile in anxiety producing situations.

Which makes sense why they wouldn't like a guy like gardiner despite the stats. He plays a very anxiety inducing game. He holds on to the puck a lot even in dangerous situations, makes risky passes and just seems to hate the safe play. For me, what he does works and he makes way more good plays then bad so I really like him. For others, he plays on the edge - it makes them worried and they don't like that. They much prefer the "chip it off the boards + knock down all the forwards on their butts where they can't do anything" style of play. I remember watching a game live last year when gardiner was fending off 2 attackers and was holding on the puck for a bit too long. In the end, nothing bad happened and he ended up making a great play and getting the puck out, but there were still a lot of people muttering their discontent - probably because that sequence scared them..

And even on this board. It seems that the gardiner dispatchers preach a more conservative approach whereas those who support him (like nithoniel and 91kadri91) are imo more left-winged.

Just something I noticed which could explain why a guy like gardiner is so polarizing amongst fans.

That's actually a great way to look at it. That may also be why people dislike calling Subban a Norris trophy winner because of his risky plays. Hopefully people begin to understand that Gardiner's game actually works and to trust in him. But I'm sensing that because we're in a rebuild and Gardiners going to be playing a lot of minutes, a lot of people are going to be seeking out him as a target for blame even though he's look amazing thus far.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Ironically I am a huge fanboy of all those players when it comes to the eye test. But that may be because I am more left-winged

My personal hypothesis is that conservative people don't like defenseman like gardiner. I have done a lot of research for a psyc course I did before and it is proven that conservative people are more easily startled and are more prone to produce a hostile respons e to that anxiety. Those who are left winged aren't as easily startled or as hostile in anxiety producing situations.

Which makes sense why they wouldn't like a guy like gardiner despite the stats. He plays a very anxiety inducing game. He holds on to the puck a lot even in dangerous situations, makes risky passes and just seems to hate the safe play. For me, what he does works and he makes way more good plays then bad so I really like him. For others, he plays on the edge - it makes them worried and they don't like that. They much prefer the "chip it off the boards + knock down all the forwards on their butts where they can't do anything" style of play. I remember watching a game live last year when gardiner was fending off 2 attackers and was holding on the puck for a bit too long. In the end, nothing bad happened and he ended up making a great play and getting the puck out, but there were still a lot of people muttering their discontent - probably because that sequence scared them..

And even on this board. It seems that the gardiner dispatchers preach a more conservative approach whereas those who support him (like nithoniel and 91kadri91) are imo more left-winged.

Just something I noticed which could explain why a guy like gardiner is so polarizing amongst fans.

Is there any links you can provide to this kind of research or would I have to go to the library? I find stuff like this fascinating, thanks in advance!

Sorry if I came off as trying to be antagonistic. I'm just suggesting to rephrase since multiple people apparently weren't understanding what you actually meant.

Pretty sure you said absolutely nothing that was even remotely antagonistic. Some people are just overly sensitive.

 

[Nithoniniel]

For all the defending I've done around here, it seems I viewed him more harshly than most last night. I put him as Average in my review in the PGT, I didn't really like the way he unraveled after their second goal. Not much came from it, but he was the one that most notably needed to settle down when things didn't go our way.

Considering that he was seen as one of the better players of the game by neutral fans, I am probably being a bit too harsh there.

So you're asking me to substantiate something I never said. You don't play fair. Ignore.

I know the game you're playing. Ignore.

No offense, but you are being overly sensitive here. If you continue like that, you'll end up talking to yourself around here.

 

[Purity*]

Most ice-time of any Leaf.

Not by much though, Babcock is definitely spreading the minutes around pretty tightly.

 

[deletethis]

No offense, but you are being overly sensitive here. If you continue like that, you'll end up talking to yourself around here.

I have absolutely no problem with being selectively read or missing out on the opportunity to take the bait on some veiled antagonism (not referring to you Nithoniniel, I enjoy reading your posts).

 

[hfdshdh]

I have absolutely no problem with being selectively read or missing out on the opportunity to take the bait on some veiled antagonism (not referring to you Nithoniniel, I enjoy reading your posts).

I said explicitly that I didn't mean to come off as being antagonistic and was just trying to get a better sense of what you actually meant.

 

[Macallan18]

Considering that he was seen as one of the better players of the game by neutral fans, I am probably being a bit too harsh there.

Interesting, I thought he looked pretty good last night. Dion, however.....

 

[Nithoniniel]

I have absolutely no problem with being selectively read or missing out on the opportunity to take the bait on some veiled antagonism (not referring to you Nithoniniel, I enjoy reading your posts).

I'm glad to hear it. Tom Foolery and Gary Nylund are good posters that don't really do the things you said though, which I why I commented on it.

 

[34]

Jake will prove his weight in gold this season (even know the tank will be awful). He is the best offensive and skating D the Leafs have.

 

[Hockey Talker29]

Jake's having a tremendous start to the season. Over 60% CF, with really solid play at both ends.

I think he's been our best player, and I love the idea of pairing him with Dion. I think it has really helped Dion play better by allowing him to focus on playing a sound 2-way game, without too much offensive responsibility.

My only complaint is that Jake is not getting nearly enough PP time. He's our best offensive d-man. He should be out there on the 1st unit.

 

[Gallagbi]

Jake's having a tremendous start to the season. Over 60% CF, with really solid play at both ends.

I think he's been our best player, and I love the idea of pairing him with Dion. I think it has really helped Dion play better by allowing him to focus on playing a sound 2-way game, without too much offensive responsibility.

My only complaint is that Jake is not getting nearly enough PP time. He's our best offensive d-man. He should be out there on the 1st unit.

I don't like the 1 D power play with our group. Phaneuf, Rielly and Gardiner are all as offensively capable as the 4th forward their putting out, so it doesn't make much sense to me.